Post by gullywasher on Aug 18, 2020 23:37:37 GMT -6
So, what does this mean for my neighborhood ? < insert evil laugh HERE >
If I owned Baskins & Robbins, I would feature a special at all stores in a storms path. It would be a double scoop for the price of a single, but it would be two different flavors of the largest in inventory. Since this would be the servers decision........why of course, it would be called ........................"The Cone of Uncertainity"
Post by hurricaner on Aug 18, 2020 23:48:16 GMT -6
Invest 98L is at 90/90%.
An elongated area of low pressure, located a little over 1000 miles east of the Windward Islands continues to produce a concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms mainly on the west side of the disturbance. Environmental conditions are conducive for further development, and a tropical depression is expected to form during the next day or two while the system moves generally west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the central and western portions of the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
Last Edit: Aug 18, 2020 23:48:45 GMT -6 by hurricaner
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This mornings Hurricane models, HWRF and HMON are pretty close to running the FL straights as a Hurricane. HWRF has it losing some steam over the Dominican Republic and HMON has it passing just north. Both on a WNW trajectory.
Crazy how both the GFS and EURO have been very slow to non existent with these. Then there's the Canadian, who's been pretty persistent with cyclogenesis. Will the Crazy Uncle continue leading the pack this season in terms of accuracy? Or will the old brothers once again claim their thrown.
One reason why the GFS never develops it is because it takes it straight over the big islands. It tries to get going in the Gulf at the last minute. It does take it to Louisiana before looping back around and back over the Gulf off the FL panhandle.
The Euro keeps it on more of a southern track through the Caribbean, never organizing and brings the wave into north Mexico/south Texas.
Then there's the Canadian:
This mornings NAVGEM first brings 97L to Louisiana with 98L shooting across south Florida, gulf bound:
The ICON is close to the NAVGEM and also has a developed storm moving west northwest toward the FL straights showing 97L moving toward the northern gulf coast first.
Last Edit: Aug 19, 2020 8:20:53 GMT -6 by SKYSUMMIT