MAJOR HURRICANE LAURA Discussion Thread

Thanks man. Sleep on it . G night

0Z GEFS

Invest 98L is at 90/90%.


An elongated area of low pressure, located a little over 1000 miles
east of the Windward Islands continues to produce a concentrated
area of showers and thunderstorms mainly on the west side of the
disturbance. Environmental conditions are conducive for further
development, and a tropical depression is expected to form during
the next day or two while the system moves generally
west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the central and western
portions of the tropical Atlantic.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

I just looked at the models, they aren’t really showing anything this morning for major development of either invest. I guess only time will tell. We just need to keep watching .

It's amazing to me how the models are so contradictory! 

Morning model roundup...

One reason why the GFS never develops it is because it takes it straight over the big islands. It tries to get going in the Gulf at the last minute. It does take it to Louisiana before looping back around and back over the Gulf off the FL panhandle.

GFS:


The Euro keeps it on more of a southern track through the Caribbean, never organizing and brings the wave into north Mexico/south Texas.

Then there's the Canadian:


This mornings NAVGEM first brings 97L to Louisiana with 98L shooting across south Florida, gulf bound:


The ICON is close to the NAVGEM and also has a developed storm moving west northwest toward the FL straights showing 97L moving toward the northern gulf coast first.