Post by gullywasher on Aug 18, 2020 23:37:37 GMT -6
So, what does this mean for my neighborhood ? < insert evil laugh HERE >
If I owned Baskins & Robbins, I would feature a special at all stores in a storms path. It would be a double scoop for the price of a single, but it would be two different flavors of the largest in inventory. Since this would be the servers decision........why of course, it would be called ........................"The Cone of Uncertainity"
Post by hurricaner on Aug 18, 2020 23:48:16 GMT -6
Invest 98L is at 90/90%.
An elongated area of low pressure, located a little over 1000 miles east of the Windward Islands continues to produce a concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms mainly on the west side of the disturbance. Environmental conditions are conducive for further development, and a tropical depression is expected to form during the next day or two while the system moves generally west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the central and western portions of the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
Last Edit: Aug 18, 2020 23:48:45 GMT -6 by hurricaner
GCWX Board Member
SKYSUMMIT
Administrator President | Director of Operations
This mornings Hurricane models, HWRF and HMON are pretty close to running the FL straights as a Hurricane. HWRF has it losing some steam over the Dominican Republic and HMON has it passing just north. Both on a WNW trajectory.
REALTOR - Team Geaux Realty, LLC (Let me be your Realtor!) Search homes on my website --> www.scottguidry.com/ NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08 CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23
Post by thibodauxwx on Aug 19, 2020 6:12:23 GMT -6
I just looked at the models, they aren’t really showing anything this morning for major development of either invest. I guess only time will tell. We just need to keep watching .
SKYSUMMIT
Administrator President | Director of Operations
Crazy how both the GFS and EURO have been very slow to non existent with these. Then there's the Canadian, who's been pretty persistent with cyclogenesis. Will the Crazy Uncle continue leading the pack this season in terms of accuracy? Or will the old brothers once again claim their thrown.
REALTOR - Team Geaux Realty, LLC (Let me be your Realtor!) Search homes on my website --> www.scottguidry.com/ NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08 CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23
One reason why the GFS never develops it is because it takes it straight over the big islands. It tries to get going in the Gulf at the last minute. It does take it to Louisiana before looping back around and back over the Gulf off the FL panhandle.
GFS:
The Euro keeps it on more of a southern track through the Caribbean, never organizing and brings the wave into north Mexico/south Texas.
Then there's the Canadian:
This mornings NAVGEM first brings 97L to Louisiana with 98L shooting across south Florida, gulf bound:
The ICON is close to the NAVGEM and also has a developed storm moving west northwest toward the FL straights showing 97L moving toward the northern gulf coast first.
Last Edit: Aug 19, 2020 8:20:53 GMT -6 by SKYSUMMIT
REALTOR - Team Geaux Realty, LLC (Let me be your Realtor!) Search homes on my website --> www.scottguidry.com/ NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08 CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23
SKYSUMMIT: I'm hoping we're shoveling snow for Christmas
Nov 16, 2022 14:58:12 GMT -6
stormydds: Thanks for your reply... as usual
Nov 5, 2022 11:37:29 GMT -6
Zack Fradella: Yea, Lezak had a paper peer reviewed and published a year or so ago.
Nov 5, 2022 9:03:24 GMT -6
stormydds: Thanks for your response. I felt that is the case. that's too bad. Has there been any peer reviewed papers on the LRC hypothesis?
Nov 4, 2022 14:01:51 GMT -6
Zack Fradella: Not sure, the LRC is something that takes a lot of work to follow and keep up with. It's not as easy as looking at the parameters and making a forecast. This deters many from even giving it a chance. Also, there is some doubt from the weather world.
Nov 4, 2022 3:38:49 GMT -6
stormydds: Zack, a friend had a meeting in Lafayette which Rob Perillo spoke.He asked him why the LRC is not used to forecast hurricanes by NOAA.His answer was that Lezak won't share the info.I saw the podcast you and David made with Gary.He seemed open.What gives?
Nov 3, 2022 14:39:19 GMT -6
SKYSUMMIT: Man I really hope that rain moves quickly on Saturday. I'm so pumped for 6 hours of awesome college football!
Nov 3, 2022 7:15:01 GMT -6
PinkFreud - Nola FQ: Been unblocked. Dylan says that the station took major damage, so no idea when they'll even be able to stream again, or be on the air. Hopefully, they will at least let their employees deal with their own property issues!
Oct 2, 2022 18:17:35 GMT -6
gullywasher: Seriously, must we deal with Bruce Katz at noon, 4, 5 AND 9. ?
Sept 30, 2022 20:03:25 GMT -6
PinkFreud - Nola FQ: According to another met on twitter, the kitten was rescued by a producer who's adopting it. Of course that hasn't stopped the angry mob, with torches and pitchforks, who are insisting that it's a lie.
Sept 29, 2022 17:48:05 GMT -6
nolachic: Pink - he's probably blocking people he doesn't personally know to keep his cell charged and to get his head straight, and I'm sure he is beyond exhausted.
Sept 29, 2022 9:23:35 GMT -6
SKYSUMMIT: I sent him a message yesterday as well, but he hasn't seen it.
Sept 29, 2022 5:46:06 GMT -6
PinkFreud - Nola FQ: Oh hell, I meant for that to be a message!
Sept 28, 2022 19:38:19 GMT -6
PinkFreud - Nola FQ: Dylan is taking a beating on Twitter. I just tried to send him a message of support, since we've been following each other for years, and HE BLOCKED ME!!!!!! Somebody who can get to him needs to do so, pronto!!! I'm very worried about him.
Sept 28, 2022 19:37:27 GMT -6
HarahanTim - Now in Covington!: Hmmm, I will say. that somewhere back there, we have stored the "Tums" icon, for those that give a prediction based on their "gut"!
Sept 24, 2022 11:38:12 GMT -6
T-man: Gully, no one here cares about your tender friggin' heart, ya big snoflake!!! :horns: :horns: :horns: :tongue:
Sept 24, 2022 10:24:18 GMT -6
0Z GEFS 
