Post by grisairgasm on Aug 18, 2020 16:04:38 GMT -6
What an early expected mess. My takeaway looking at the graphic suggests the vast majority put both 97 and 98L in the Gulf ranging from Campeche to the W coast of the Florida peninsula. Not all but most .
SKYSUMMIT
Administrator President | Director of Operations
98L on the 18z ICON moving west to west-northwest under a ridge of high pressure to the north.
Last Edit: Aug 18, 2020 16:11:27 GMT -6 by SKYSUMMIT
REALTOR - Team Geaux Realty, LLC (Let me be your Realtor!) Search homes on my website --> www.scottguidry.com/ NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08 CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23
Post by grisairgasm on Aug 18, 2020 16:13:53 GMT -6
I can only hope that they somewhat cancel each other due to proximity if it comes to fruition . They don’t look large or exactly close enough for the Fujiwara effect however it is 2020. What a bizarre one two theoretical punch.
SKYSUMMIT
Administrator President | Director of Operations
Again, the GFS doesn't do much, but looks like it tries to get 98L going just before reaching Florida, turning north around the periphery of a weakening ridge. How many more model runs we have? LOL....nothing else to do right?
REALTOR - Team Geaux Realty, LLC (Let me be your Realtor!) Search homes on my website --> www.scottguidry.com/ NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08 CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23
Post by grisairgasm on Aug 18, 2020 16:21:33 GMT -6
Just complete fun or misery to watch. We all fit in between there somewhere. Could this be another 2 storms that struggle until their demise? Always possible.
00z guidance show no gom so we safe time to move on now
You're going to trust models 6 days out from even reaching Florida?
REALTOR - Team Geaux Realty, LLC (Let me be your Realtor!) Search homes on my website --> www.scottguidry.com/ NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08 CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23
Post by grisairgasm on Aug 18, 2020 20:57:43 GMT -6
That’s a mighty tight model consensus this far out. That in itself is interesting. However, history shows time and again that being the “spot” 6-7 days out is the best place to be. It more than likely will not be there a week down the road. That being said, NHC is just nailing tracks these days.
Post by bstelly24-Pearl River, LA on Aug 18, 2020 22:32:30 GMT -6
I don't think I've seen a Fujiwara effect in the Gulf before. But the Icon does it and absolutely bombs out 98L into a 943mb Cat 4 heading straight into the Big Bend area.
SKYSUMMIT: I'm hoping we're shoveling snow for Christmas
Nov 16, 2022 14:58:12 GMT -6
stormydds: Thanks for your reply... as usual
Nov 5, 2022 11:37:29 GMT -6
Zack Fradella: Yea, Lezak had a paper peer reviewed and published a year or so ago.
Nov 5, 2022 9:03:24 GMT -6
stormydds: Thanks for your response. I felt that is the case. that's too bad. Has there been any peer reviewed papers on the LRC hypothesis?
Nov 4, 2022 14:01:51 GMT -6
Zack Fradella: Not sure, the LRC is something that takes a lot of work to follow and keep up with. It's not as easy as looking at the parameters and making a forecast. This deters many from even giving it a chance. Also, there is some doubt from the weather world.
Nov 4, 2022 3:38:49 GMT -6
stormydds: Zack, a friend had a meeting in Lafayette which Rob Perillo spoke.He asked him why the LRC is not used to forecast hurricanes by NOAA.His answer was that Lezak won't share the info.I saw the podcast you and David made with Gary.He seemed open.What gives?
Nov 3, 2022 14:39:19 GMT -6
SKYSUMMIT: Man I really hope that rain moves quickly on Saturday. I'm so pumped for 6 hours of awesome college football!
Nov 3, 2022 7:15:01 GMT -6
PinkFreud - Nola FQ: Been unblocked. Dylan says that the station took major damage, so no idea when they'll even be able to stream again, or be on the air. Hopefully, they will at least let their employees deal with their own property issues!
Oct 2, 2022 18:17:35 GMT -6
gullywasher: Seriously, must we deal with Bruce Katz at noon, 4, 5 AND 9. ?
Sept 30, 2022 20:03:25 GMT -6
PinkFreud - Nola FQ: According to another met on twitter, the kitten was rescued by a producer who's adopting it. Of course that hasn't stopped the angry mob, with torches and pitchforks, who are insisting that it's a lie.
Sept 29, 2022 17:48:05 GMT -6
nolachic: Pink - he's probably blocking people he doesn't personally know to keep his cell charged and to get his head straight, and I'm sure he is beyond exhausted.
Sept 29, 2022 9:23:35 GMT -6
SKYSUMMIT: I sent him a message yesterday as well, but he hasn't seen it.
Sept 29, 2022 5:46:06 GMT -6
PinkFreud - Nola FQ: Oh hell, I meant for that to be a message!
Sept 28, 2022 19:38:19 GMT -6
PinkFreud - Nola FQ: Dylan is taking a beating on Twitter. I just tried to send him a message of support, since we've been following each other for years, and HE BLOCKED ME!!!!!! Somebody who can get to him needs to do so, pronto!!! I'm very worried about him.
Sept 28, 2022 19:37:27 GMT -6
HarahanTim - Now in Covington!: Hmmm, I will say. that somewhere back there, we have stored the "Tums" icon, for those that give a prediction based on their "gut"!
Sept 24, 2022 11:38:12 GMT -6
T-man: Gully, no one here cares about your tender friggin' heart, ya big snoflake!!! :horns: :horns: :horns: :tongue:
Sept 24, 2022 10:24:18 GMT -6
00z guidance show no gom so we safe time to move on now 
now direction of NOla
