Zach would the NHC move the track a lot this close to landfall to the east if all of the reliable models start trending further eastward? It might give those of us in the NOLA area a sense of calm that we dodged another one.
It's not all that close to landfall....still 30 some-odd hours to the mouth of the river if that played out.....I am sure if they believe guidance they will change as needed.
It boggles my mind how SELA continues to doge bullets at the last minute. How is that possible?
These are a couple of model runs about 36 hours away from landfall. They could swing the other way over the course of the next 24 hours. As stated a number of times, stick with the NHC forecasts. The people there make a career of forecasting these things.
From the 4:00 p.m. disco:
As often occurs, there has been some run-to-run variability among the various track models, and the latest iterations of them have shifted eastward with a slower forward speed. Despite the shifts of the individual models, the latest consensus aids are only slightly north and east of the previous NHC track through 60 hours, so only a small adjustment has been made to the earlier official forecast through that time. It is important not to focus too much on these small track changes and to the exact forecast track itself, as impacts are expected to extend far from the center. Also, since there is still quite a bit of model spread in both the location and timing of when the center of Sally reaches the northern Gulf Coast, additional adjustments to the track forecast are possible.
"Let's work the problem, people; don't make things worse by guessing!"