TROPICAL DEPRESSION BETA Discussion Thread

In reality the end result of the GFS mid next week is it has a storm over the western Gulf, after all of that. It just dissipates it at that point while the EURO/ICON show a hurricane that then ejects NE. The GFS steering would push any storm worth size to the NE in that pattern but instead it falls apart.

Could you explain to us what forces could be at work to cause this hypothetical storm to fall apart in the GoM, Zack?

000
FZNT24 KNHC 171512
OFFNT4

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Gulf of Mexico
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami, FL
1112 AM EDT Thu Sep 17 2020

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Gulf of Mexico

Seas given as significant wave height, which is the average
height of the highest 1/3 of the waves. Individual waves may be
more than twice the significant wave height.

GMZ001-180315-
Synopsis for the Gulf of Mexico
1112 AM EDT Thu Sep 17 2020

.SYNOPSIS...A well-defined area of low pressure over the
southwestern Gulf will meander over the southwestern Gulf for the
next day or so before moving slowly northward to northeastward on
Fri and Sat, with potential for it to become a tropical depression
or tropical storm later today. A Gale Warning has been issued for
this system. A weak front will move into the northern Gulf on
Sat, followed by fresh to strong east to northeast winds.

Hopefully those strong winds will blow it to smithereens!

Any projections of what category hurricane?

06Z ECMWF -rain