HURRICANE DELTA Discussion Thread

This is why it's best to keep "scientific" opinions to ourselves unless we are meteorologists, especially when 72 hours or less from landfall. Otherwise, we put something out there that someone else far less knowledgeable may read as fact. One of the moderators just posted about this yesterday, but as usual, it was probably 30 pages back at this point. It's all in how you phrase it. I know I'm going to get ripped apart for saying this, but there are a lot of regulars and semi-regulars here that speak very knowledgably and with certainty so their "opinions" are stated as fact and create panic among those who are less frequent flyers. 

On another note, is it me, or have there been FAR less postings of maps and sat images on this thread? I'm on my laptop and I feel like I'm searching far too much in previous pages for recent images.  I see a couple here and there but not to the degree we usually see. Or else my AT&T Uverse is throttling my connnection.

The cone is a measure of uncertainty - it represents a statistical estimation of possible center locations. Basically, while the center line is the most likely path, the center *could* track anywhere within the cone. As confidence grows, the cone becomes narrower.

Northshore schools were closed for both Laura and Sally.  I would expect the same for Delta.

Every now and then the word "tornado" gets thrown out here. Remember, all of southeast Louisiana will be in the right-front quadrant which has the highest tornado threat. Laura had NUMEROUS tornado warnings across the south Louisiana parishes. You always have to be prepared.

Can anyone speak to the location of the ridge? I’m curious about the current NW motion and when to expect a more WNW around the ridge. I assume the NOAA plane this morning will get a good fix on ridge location. Is that correct?

I'm a bit shocked anyone is giving the NHC grief for the cone movement on a storm that hasn't even entered the gulf yet.

I think there is a pretty big misunderstanding overall of what weather forecasting is based on and how difficult it is to get beyond a certain level of assurance.

In another time of year you can look at the forecast and not even wonder about a cold front that came through hours early or late, warmer or colder.....because it doesn't really affect your life in any important way. Well the same movements of weather systems west near the tropics and east as you gain latitude are the atmospheric conditions that become the steering of hurricanes. That timing and amplitude uncertainty is likely to always be there. This storm has had very tight model output paths because the anticipated speed of the storm is at a good clip. No stalling or changing of direction drastically. Having said that we still need to wait until it's decently into the gulf to feel better (feel 'better' of the forecast not the risk of damage in its path) about its path.

As with any topic, the more you know about it the better you can digest the data that is thrown at you. Weather is a science with so many unobserved and unmeasured parts. I don't criticize anyone on any topic I am not versed in. It may not make sense but if I am curious I look into it to better understand it. Everyone else's job looks easy from the outside because we don't really understand what it takes to do the other persons job.

As people who live in an area that is exposed to tropical cyclones we should try to bridle our emotions when making decisions. Recognize the emotions for what they are but trust the only science we have understanding it is not a simple thing.

I'd rather be inconvenienced over and over again for a storm that doesn't adversely impact me than be unaware and unprepared for the one that does. It's part of life. No one wants to fork out insurance money every month knowing we may never need to use it. We do it because if we do need it we aren't ruined.

Maybe not a great analogy but no one wants to run around wearing a mask....but such a small inconvenience could help stem a much bigger problem....is it really that difficult?

Ok stepping off that soap box (need to research where that term came from).

We can't always control what sh#t happens in our lives so we strive to be good at coping with what comes our way.