HURRICANE DELTA Discussion Thread

Zack you guys do a great job of providing us with the necessary information to make an informed decision for our own safety. My sister lives right down the street from where you used to in Gretna. She hasn't taken a storm serious since Katrina! Some people you just can't get thru to. Thanks for all you do!

Every now and then the word "tornado" gets thrown out here. Remember, all of southeast Louisiana will be in the right-front quadrant which has the highest tornado threat. Laura had NUMEROUS tornado warnings across the south Louisiana parishes. You always have to be prepared.

I'm a bit shocked anyone is giving the NHC grief for the cone movement on a storm that hasn't even entered the gulf yet.

I think there is a pretty big misunderstanding overall of what weather forecasting is based on and how difficult it is to get beyond a certain level of assurance.

In another time of year you can look at the forecast and not even wonder about a cold front that came through hours early or late, warmer or colder.....because it doesn't really affect your life in any important way. Well the same movements of weather systems west near the tropics and east as you gain latitude are the atmospheric conditions that become the steering of hurricanes. That timing and amplitude uncertainty is likely to always be there. This storm has had very tight model output paths because the anticipated speed of the storm is at a good clip. No stalling or changing of direction drastically. Having said that we still need to wait until it's decently into the gulf to feel better (feel 'better' of the forecast not the risk of damage in its path) about its path.

As with any topic, the more you know about it the better you can digest the data that is thrown at you. Weather is a science with so many unobserved and unmeasured parts. I don't criticize anyone on any topic I am not versed in. It may not make sense but if I am curious I look into it to better understand it. Everyone else's job looks easy from the outside because we don't really understand what it takes to do the other persons job.

As people who live in an area that is exposed to tropical cyclones we should try to bridle our emotions when making decisions. Recognize the emotions for what they are but trust the only science we have understanding it is not a simple thing.

I'd rather be inconvenienced over and over again for a storm that doesn't adversely impact me than be unaware and unprepared for the one that does. It's part of life. No one wants to fork out insurance money every month knowing we may never need to use it. We do it because if we do need it we aren't ruined.

Maybe not a great analogy but no one wants to run around wearing a mask....but such a small inconvenience could help stem a much bigger problem....is it really that difficult?

Ok stepping off that soap box (need to research where that term came from).

We can't always control what sh#t happens in our lives so we strive to be good at coping with what comes our way.

The SELA shield is putting up one hell of a fight throughout this.