HURRICANE DELTA Discussion Thread

Zack Fradella Administrator Chairman \| Founder Posts: 8,546 Staff Member	HURRICANE DELTA Discussion Thread Oct 5, 2020 3:59:51 GMT -6 via mobile geo2 - Bush/Waldheim Metroplex, Jess23, and 2 more like this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by Zack Fradella on Oct 5, 2020 3:59:51 GMT -6 06Z GFS shifted about another 25 miles west. Near Morgan City. Gets close to a Cat 3 in the central Gulf and is quickly weakening at landfall.
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missmissy
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HURRICANE DELTA Discussion Thread Oct 5, 2020 4:05:16 GMT -6 courtney0726 and VERticalnoGO like this

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Post by missmissy on Oct 5, 2020 4:05:16 GMT -6

Oct 5, 2020 3:59:51 GMT -6 Zack Fradella said:

06Z GFS shifted about another 25 miles west.

Near Morgan City. Gets close to a Cat 3 in the central Gulf and is quickly weakening at landfall.

Ugh...I feel like we have started school 16 times this year! Guess we will be virtual by the end of the week again!! Thanks for your updates Zack!

NavyMom: WBR Parish
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HURRICANE DELTA Discussion Thread Oct 5, 2020 4:08:58 GMT -6

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Post by NavyMom: WBR Parish on Oct 5, 2020 4:08:58 GMT -6

Oct 5, 2020 3:32:36 GMT -6 Will - Ascension Parish said:

The 4:00am update moved ever so slightly west and the discussion sort of hints that it could be moved further west in the future. Maybe I read into it wrong but the impression I got was that the NHC kind of believes further shifts may be to the west instead of the east. Am I the only one who came away from their discussion with that impression?

To me, it’s dependent on how Delta interacts with Gamma on day 2/3. They seem uncertain if Delta will take a western jog.

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HURRICANE DELTA Discussion Thread Oct 5, 2020 4:52:54 GMT -6 via mobile NavyMom: WBR Parish likes this

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Post by lawxnut on Oct 5, 2020 4:52:54 GMT -6

Oct 5, 2020 4:08:58 GMT -6 NavyMom: WBR Parish said:

Oct 5, 2020 3:32:36 GMT -6 Will - Ascension Parish said:

The 4:00am update moved ever so slightly west and the discussion sort of hints that it could be moved further west in the future. Maybe I read into it wrong but the impression I got was that the NHC kind of believes further shifts may be to the west instead of the east. Am I the only one who came away from their discussion with that impression?

To me, it’s dependent on how Delta interacts with Gamma on day 2/3. They seem uncertain if Delta will take a western jog.

The storm will take a jog west due to gamma. Just depends on how far west.

Levi did a good job stating the further west feta goes, the more it interacts wth gamma vs a more easily track has less interaction with gamma and a more easterly track.

Last Edit: Oct 5, 2020 4:54:03 GMT -6 by lawxnut

thibodauxwx GCWX Supporter Posts: 3,537	HURRICANE DELTA Discussion Thread Oct 5, 2020 5:14:16 GMT -6 via mobile Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by thibodauxwx on Oct 5, 2020 5:14:16 GMT -6 Wow, 5 days out all if these models seem to agree on a louisiana landfall, I think Louisiana had enough storms this year already.
	Last Edit: Oct 5, 2020 5:15:44 GMT -6 by thibodauxwx

geo2 - Bush/Waldheim Metroplex GCWX Supporter Posts: 708	HURRICANE DELTA Discussion Thread Oct 5, 2020 5:27:36 GMT -6 via mobile roorufus likes this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by geo2 - Bush/Waldheim Metroplex on Oct 5, 2020 5:27:36 GMT -6 Any chance this storm could pull a “Lily”? It was a powerful storm in the Central Gulf, Cat 4. It rapidly diminished to a Cat 1. It was also an early October storm.

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HURRICANE DELTA Discussion Thread Oct 5, 2020 5:33:50 GMT -6 roorufus, geo2 - Bush/Waldheim Metroplex, and 2 more like this

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Post by RowBear on Oct 5, 2020 5:33:50 GMT -6

Oct 5, 2020 5:27:36 GMT -6 geo2 - Bush/Waldheim Metroplex said:

Any chance this storm could pull a “Lily”? It was a powerful storm in the Central Gulf, Cat 4. It rapidly diminished to a Cat 1. It was also an early October storm.

Better yet, is *poof" a possibility ? :hmmm:

Last Edit: Oct 5, 2020 5:34:59 GMT -6 by RowBear

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cajungal Category 5 Posts: 6,379	HURRICANE DELTA Discussion Thread Oct 5, 2020 5:37:44 GMT -6 via mobile thibodauxwx and Jess23 like this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by cajungal on Oct 5, 2020 5:37:44 GMT -6 Morgan city would be worse case for Lafourche/Terrebonne.
	60 miles southwest of New Orleans) Thibodaux, La

SKYSUMMIT Administrator President \| Director of Operations Posts: 67,639 Location: Ponchatoula, LA Staff Member	HURRICANE DELTA Discussion Thread Oct 5, 2020 5:38:08 GMT -6 via mobile greeneyedgirl, xty624, and 5 more like this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by SKYSUMMIT on Oct 5, 2020 5:38:08 GMT -6 Why can't we just get something easy? Now we're dealing with a sheared Gamma which will probably be absorbed into Delta. How does that play into things?
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geo2 - Bush/Waldheim Metroplex
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HURRICANE DELTA Discussion Thread Oct 5, 2020 5:39:24 GMT -6 via mobile Jess23 likes this

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Post by geo2 - Bush/Waldheim Metroplex on Oct 5, 2020 5:39:24 GMT -6

Oct 5, 2020 5:33:50 GMT -6 RowBear said:

Oct 5, 2020 5:27:36 GMT -6 geo2 - Bush/Waldheim Metroplex said:

Any chance this storm could pull a “Lily”? It was a powerful storm in the Central Gulf, Cat 4. It rapidly diminished to a Cat 1. It was also an early October storm.

Better yet, is *poof" a possibility ?

Just read NHC discussion. They mention rapid weakening due to models incorporating jet stream into the expected shear, but discount this. They do predict weakening due to cool H2O temps. I guess it’s going to be a nowcasting thing with the ultimate strength at landfall. As for me, I’m hoping for poof.

optimist GCWX Supporter Posts: 637	HURRICANE DELTA Discussion Thread Oct 5, 2020 5:40:30 GMT -6 geo2 - Bush/Waldheim Metroplex and Jess23 like this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by optimist on Oct 5, 2020 5:40:30 GMT -6 Last night Levi had a great explanation of how the shell of gamma could affect Delta's path. Anyone who is interested in viewing can find it on Tropical Tidbits website.

NavyMom: WBR Parish Moderator Posts: 1,571 Staff Member	HURRICANE DELTA Discussion Thread Oct 5, 2020 5:43:12 GMT -6 thibodauxwx and Jess23 like this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by NavyMom: WBR Parish on Oct 5, 2020 5:43:12 GMT -6 We now have TS Delta.
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HURRICANE DELTA Discussion Thread Oct 5, 2020 5:44:43 GMT -6

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Post by lsukev4 on Oct 5, 2020 5:44:43 GMT -6

If the HMON is to be believed, the center of Delta is going to pass directly over NOLA as a sheared mess/naked swirl with all the weather way east over the Florida panhandle. I think this is the other way the "shield" protects SELA. We seem to get disorganized/weakening storms that pass nearly right overhead with all the weather east, or we get storms just far enough west to get us dry-slotted by dry air entraining into the weak storms.

ETA: I know it's a terrible model.

Last Edit: Oct 5, 2020 5:45:58 GMT -6 by lsukev4

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weatherboyy Category 5 Posts: 2,413	HURRICANE DELTA Discussion Thread Oct 5, 2020 5:45:10 GMT -6 via mobile NavyMom: WBR Parish likes this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by weatherboyy on Oct 5, 2020 5:45:10 GMT -6 Oct 5, 2020 5:43:12 GMT -6 NavyMom: WBR Parish said: We now have TS Delta. it look like on the satellite eye start
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HURRICANE DELTA Discussion Thread Oct 5, 2020 5:45:42 GMT -6 via mobile

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Post by weatherboyy on Oct 5, 2020 5:45:42 GMT -6

Oct 5, 2020 5:44:43 GMT -6 lsukev4 said:

If the HMON is to be believed, the center of Delta is going to pass directly over NOLA as a sheared mess/naked swirl with all the weather way east over the Florida panhandle. I think this is the other way the "shield" protects SELA. We seem to get disorganized/weakening storms that pass nearly right overhead with all the weather east, or we get storms just far enough west to get us dry-slotted by dry air entraining into the weak storms.

garbage model

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HURRICANE DELTA Discussion Thread

Post by Zack Fradella on Oct 5, 2020 3:59:51 GMT -6

Post by missmissy on Oct 5, 2020 4:05:16 GMT -6

Post by NavyMom: WBR Parish on Oct 5, 2020 4:08:58 GMT -6

Post by lawxnut on Oct 5, 2020 4:52:54 GMT -6

Post by thibodauxwx on Oct 5, 2020 5:14:16 GMT -6

Post by geo2 - Bush/Waldheim Metroplex on Oct 5, 2020 5:27:36 GMT -6

Post by RowBear on Oct 5, 2020 5:33:50 GMT -6

Post by cajungal on Oct 5, 2020 5:37:44 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Oct 5, 2020 5:38:08 GMT -6

Post by geo2 - Bush/Waldheim Metroplex on Oct 5, 2020 5:39:24 GMT -6

Post by optimist on Oct 5, 2020 5:40:30 GMT -6

Post by NavyMom: WBR Parish on Oct 5, 2020 5:43:12 GMT -6

Post by lsukev4 on Oct 5, 2020 5:44:43 GMT -6

Post by weatherboyy on Oct 5, 2020 5:45:10 GMT -6

Post by weatherboyy on Oct 5, 2020 5:45:42 GMT -6

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