Of course we’ll have a Fuji-whatever thingie since we have our bash planned. Oh well. I’ll duct tape my tiara to my head and wear my shrimp boots with my quinceanera dress.
Post by Zack Fradella on Oct 4, 2020 7:04:40 GMT -6
Model roundup....
GFS - Keeps it sort of weak, hence why it moves it so far west into south-central LA. GFS ensembles clustered on LA with many of hurricane strength.
EURO - Showed nothing at 00Z, barely picked up on a depression that is near Chandelier Islands late week. New 06Z I'm looking at shows a much more defined storm in the central Gulf but it only goes out 90 hours at 06Z. 00Z ensembles showed nothing, waiting on 06Z.
Canadian - Broad tropical storm over the central Gulf then hooks right into FL Panhandle.
HWRF - Borderline CAT 2 crossing the Gulf, landfall near Buras.
HMON - Major hurricane in central Gulf, then turns east before hitting LA.
All hurricane model intensity forecasts are quite high. All globals are not. Good luck!
Last Edit: Oct 4, 2020 7:05:57 GMT -6 by Zack Fradella
And once again hubby will be leaving for Houston for work tomorrow and not home til Friday afternoon. And will be alone with 2 kids with a storm threat. Even though I think we will have a scare and it will turn East of Louisiana
GFS - Keeps it sort of weak, hence why it moves it so far west into south-central LA. GFS ensembles clustered on LA with many of hurricane strength.
EURO - Showed nothing at 00Z, barely picked up on a depression that is near Chandelier Islands late week. New 06Z I'm looking at shows a much more defined storm in the central Gulf but it only goes out 90 hours at 06Z. 00Z ensembles showed nothing, waiting on 06Z.
Canadian - Broad tropical storm over the central Gulf then hooks right into FL Panhandle.
HWRF - Borderline CAT 2 crossing the Gulf, landfall near Buras.
HMON - Major hurricane in central Gulf, then turns east before hitting LA.
All hurricane model intensity forecasts are quite high. All globals are not. Good luck!
Seems like the Euro has been out to lunch for much of the last month or two. Should be an interesting few days. Can we dodge this a 4th time in SE Louisiana?
GFS - Keeps it sort of weak, hence why it moves it so far west into south-central LA. GFS ensembles clustered on LA with many of hurricane strength.
EURO - Showed nothing at 00Z, barely picked up on a depression that is near Chandelier Islands late week. New 06Z I'm looking at shows a much more defined storm in the central Gulf but it only goes out 90 hours at 06Z. 00Z ensembles showed nothing, waiting on 06Z.
Canadian - Broad tropical storm over the central Gulf then hooks right into FL Panhandle.
HWRF - Borderline CAT 2 crossing the Gulf, landfall near Buras.
HMON - Major hurricane in central Gulf, then turns east before hitting LA.
All hurricane model intensity forecasts are quite high. All globals are not. Good luck!
I hope we don’t luck out with anything except many strong cold front to put us on lock down for the rest of year. It’s time for this season to be over and march us quickly to 1/1/21. Thanks for this recap, hoping sheer destroys anything and everything, and the models, Euro and GFS, show little to nothing.
Another week of watching the tropics... Models are pretty interesting this morning with differing solutions, but are in general agreement of "something" (whether it be a tropical depression, tropical storm, or hurricane), moving towards or inland along the northern gulf coast by the end of the week. Just to make things more confusing, but interesting none the less, is that the GFS-Para brings whatever 92L is (weak) westward along the Louisiana coast but then is quickly followed by Gamma as a hurricane into central Louisiana.
As referenced by Dutar, another confusing but interesting model is what the NAVGEM shows. Gamma and 92L appearing to merge into a hurricane and head toward southeast Louisiana.
General thinking (right now) looks to be yet another tropical "threat" to Louisiana coast.
