It's a South Louisiana Version of Groundhog Day. Pattern is changing this week as the trough moves out this week and ridge builds in. All a matter of timing as later next weekend the ridge looks retreat and trough influences what is in the GOM. It looks like a pitcher change to try to get a storm over the plate (SE LA). All of the other pitchers have been curve balls, just left and right of the plate, with a couple of balls in the dirt. Will this pitcher be able to get it over the plate?
I would be hesitant to dismiss this storm just yet. It looks like it may enter the Gulf as a more organized storm than either the euro or gfs has been showing; at least, I don't think such a scenario could be ruled out yet. There is enough from support from the ensembles (gefs has been showing a range of solutions, but rather favoring a track toward the central Gulf coast), the current state of 92's organization, and the lack of skill in intensity forecasting to pay attention to this one, not to mention the intensity on the hurricane models isn't really all that low. Yes, water temperatures have cooled off significantly in the northern Gulf, but a storm on the move, especially one moving into the central Gulf of Mexico as an already fairly deep storm, could still be a big problem for Louisiana or elsewhere along cenreal Gulf coast.
I hope this does not pan out because my daughter is getting married Saturday
They say it’s good luck to get rain on your wedding day. I’d also say it’s good luck to have a TS stalled over you on your honeymoon, but that’s just me. I think my bride of 26 years would agree.
I think 92L's intensity & track in the GOM will depend how quickly Gamma weakens over the next couple of days. GFS is persistent in painting a very good UL environment in the eastern GOM so hurricane models see that and thus show it becoming a at least a Cat 1, there is still plenty of warm SSTs in the GOM except the immediate coastal waters of the northern gulf coast.
Post by mobileweatherwatcher on Oct 4, 2020 9:14:24 GMT -6
Concern I have is that Alabama and Florida have already took a hit from Sally. Many places have yard debris lined up along the streets waiting to be picked up, so more wind could blow those around. Plus, how many trees have been weakened by Sally? Another wind episode could compromise them even more. Sally has been gone not even three weeks. The last thing we need is another strong storm.
SKYSUMMIT President | Director of OperationsAdministrator
Tropical Storm Gamma Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL252020 1000 AM CDT Sun Oct 04 2020
...GAMMA FORECAST TO MEANDER JUST NORTH OF THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...
SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.2N 88.2W ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM N OF RIO LAGARTOS MEXICO ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM ENE OF PROGRESO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES
Concern I have is that Alabama and Florida have already took a hit from Sally. Many places have yard debris lined up along the streets waiting to be picked up, so more wind could blow those around. Plus, how many trees have been weakened by Sally? Another wind episode could compromise them even more. Sally has been gone not even three weeks. The last thing we need is another strong storm.
How about the folks in Lake Charles? Let's not just focus in on one area, where devastation from a previous hurricane has taken place. Lake Charles and SWLA has been the hardest hit area of the season.
Concern I have is that Alabama and Florida have already took a hit from Sally. Many places have yard debris lined up along the streets waiting to be picked up, so more wind could blow those around. Plus, how many trees have been weakened by Sally? Another wind episode could compromise them even more. Sally has been gone not even three weeks. The last thing we need is another strong storm.
How about the folks in Lake Charles? Let's not just focus in on one area, where devastation from a previous hurricane has taken place. Lake Charles and SWLA has been the hardest hit area of the season.
Absolutely correct. Didn't mean to exclude them. I only mention Alabama and Florida since I live in the Mobile area. Can't forget SW Louisiana either
Post by Zack Fradella on Oct 4, 2020 10:06:28 GMT -6
GFS starting to catch on to this being a hurricane in the Gulf. Gets due south of NOLA in central Gulf, hooks NNE with a sharp turn. Plaq Parish landfall as a Cat 1.
Another HUGE bust potential track because if it goes east, nothing for LA.
