Vacation??? Should not be until December 1st this year lol! I have a feeling we will hear from him shortly.....
Problem is that 2020 means no rest for the meteorologists. We'll be having these hybrid canes in December with cold rain and wintry mixes getting thrown into the mess at the rate this year's been going for us.
Post by hurricaner on Oct 24, 2020 20:43:58 GMT -6
Tropical Depression Twenty-Eight Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020 1100 PM EDT Sat Oct 24 2020
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AND BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS TO PARTS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.9N 83.1W ABOUT 240 MI...380 KM SSE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
Last Edit: Oct 24, 2020 20:44:28 GMT -6 by hurricaner
TD 28 going nowhere fast. Other boards thinking a center is more SE than what the NHC is seeing. I believe recon is heading out early morning. If indeed center is more SE, could very well be a much different track.
More support as to why there should be no 5 day cone. With social media enhancing communication, 3 day cone is plenty.
Last Edit: Oct 24, 2020 20:58:39 GMT -6 by optimist
Post by lsukev4 (Gretna) on Oct 24, 2020 21:48:39 GMT -6
That’s like the 20th time this season New Orleans has been on or just to the east of the 5 day track with “greater than usual uncertainty”. I totally agree on not having a 5-day cone and track.
Post by Zack Fradella on Oct 25, 2020 5:17:28 GMT -6
Just like with every other storm this year, we are in the formative stages so you can’t focus on Day 3-5 track point. The cone is good, center points not so much.
Interesting to note, 6Z models are catching on. For the first time the GFS actually shows a hurricane, the new HWRF/HMON coming out now. Both send this isn’t Yucatán while before they all were much farther east. See how these short term trends as the storm is reorganizing farther south make a huge difference.
These reformations of the storm further south have always resulted in a track going further west, we will see if this will be the case again with Zeta.
6z gfs actually shifted East to the panhandle. Chatter on the streets is that not only is the center relocation south but also somewhat East which would move Zeta more East as the gfs is showing.
We can say ignore the center line and just look at the cone until we are blue in the face but I think it’s almost impossible for people (who are not Mets) to do. Trash the 5 day cone!
6z gfs actually shifted East to the panhandle. Chatter on the streets is that not only is the center relocation south but also somewhat East which would move Zeta more East as the gfs is showing.
We can say ignore the center line and just look at the cone until we are blue in the face but I think it’s almost impossible for people (who are not Mets) to do. Trash the 5 day cone!
That chatter on the streets, which I know where it is coming from, is wishcasting, there's going to be big ridge moving over FL over the next couple days that will keep Zeta from going that far east.
SKYSUMMIT: I'm hoping we're shoveling snow for Christmas
Nov 16, 2022 14:58:12 GMT -6
stormydds: Thanks for your reply... as usual
Nov 5, 2022 11:37:29 GMT -6
Zack Fradella: Yea, Lezak had a paper peer reviewed and published a year or so ago.
Nov 5, 2022 9:03:24 GMT -6
stormydds: Thanks for your response. I felt that is the case. that's too bad. Has there been any peer reviewed papers on the LRC hypothesis?
Nov 4, 2022 14:01:51 GMT -6
Zack Fradella: Not sure, the LRC is something that takes a lot of work to follow and keep up with. It's not as easy as looking at the parameters and making a forecast. This deters many from even giving it a chance. Also, there is some doubt from the weather world.
Nov 4, 2022 3:38:49 GMT -6
stormydds: Zack, a friend had a meeting in Lafayette which Rob Perillo spoke.He asked him why the LRC is not used to forecast hurricanes by NOAA.His answer was that Lezak won't share the info.I saw the podcast you and David made with Gary.He seemed open.What gives?
Nov 3, 2022 14:39:19 GMT -6
SKYSUMMIT: Man I really hope that rain moves quickly on Saturday. I'm so pumped for 6 hours of awesome college football!
Nov 3, 2022 7:15:01 GMT -6
PinkFreud - Nola FQ: Been unblocked. Dylan says that the station took major damage, so no idea when they'll even be able to stream again, or be on the air. Hopefully, they will at least let their employees deal with their own property issues!
Oct 2, 2022 18:17:35 GMT -6
gullywasher: Seriously, must we deal with Bruce Katz at noon, 4, 5 AND 9. ?
Sept 30, 2022 20:03:25 GMT -6
PinkFreud - Nola FQ: According to another met on twitter, the kitten was rescued by a producer who's adopting it. Of course that hasn't stopped the angry mob, with torches and pitchforks, who are insisting that it's a lie.
Sept 29, 2022 17:48:05 GMT -6
nolachic: Pink - he's probably blocking people he doesn't personally know to keep his cell charged and to get his head straight, and I'm sure he is beyond exhausted.
Sept 29, 2022 9:23:35 GMT -6
SKYSUMMIT: I sent him a message yesterday as well, but he hasn't seen it.
Sept 29, 2022 5:46:06 GMT -6
PinkFreud - Nola FQ: Oh hell, I meant for that to be a message!
Sept 28, 2022 19:38:19 GMT -6
PinkFreud - Nola FQ: Dylan is taking a beating on Twitter. I just tried to send him a message of support, since we've been following each other for years, and HE BLOCKED ME!!!!!! Somebody who can get to him needs to do so, pronto!!! I'm very worried about him.
Sept 28, 2022 19:37:27 GMT -6
HarahanTim - Now in Covington!: Hmmm, I will say. that somewhere back there, we have stored the "Tums" icon, for those that give a prediction based on their "gut"!
Sept 24, 2022 11:38:12 GMT -6
T-man: Gully, no one here cares about your tender friggin' heart, ya big snoflake!!! :horns: :horns: :horns: :tongue:
Sept 24, 2022 10:24:18 GMT -6
gullywasher: Every year I asks the mods to create a Captain Obvious. and a Captain Oblivious icons but I guess no one wants to hurt anyones delicate feelings
Sept 24, 2022 9:31:50 GMT -6
T-man: Well we are looking forward to a cool front, not a scary hurricane, that's for sure!
Sept 24, 2022 8:16:47 GMT -6
