HURRICANE ZETA Discussion Thread

hurricaner
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HURRICANE ZETA Discussion Thread Oct 23, 2020 6:14:02 GMT -6 missy, geo2 - Bush/Waldheim Metroplex, and 1 more like this

Post by hurricaner on Oct 23, 2020 6:14:02 GMT -6

The disturbance in the NW Caribbean has gotten much better organized and is now Invest 95L'

A broad area of low pressure located near Grand Cayman Island is
producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms mainly east and
south of the center. This system has become much better organized
since yesterday, and a tropical depression could form during the
next couple of days while the low moves slowly toward the northwest.
This system is now anticipated to move near western Cuba this
weekend and move slowly across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by
early next week. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall
will be possible over portions of the Cayman Islands, Cuba,
southern Florida and the Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas through
the weekend.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

Last Edit: Oct 29, 2020 17:09:06 GMT -6 by SKYSUMMIT

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chloe06 GCWX Supporter Posts: 1,237	HURRICANE ZETA Discussion Thread Oct 23, 2020 6:58:59 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by chloe06 on Oct 23, 2020 6:58:59 GMT -6 Is this something LA needs to watch?

harpman GCWX Supporter Posts: 6,137	HURRICANE ZETA Discussion Thread Oct 23, 2020 7:17:12 GMT -6 via mobile chloe06 and geo2 - Bush/Waldheim Metroplex like this Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by harpman on Oct 23, 2020 7:17:12 GMT -6 Oct 23, 2020 6:58:59 GMT -6 chloe06 said: Is this something LA needs to watch? No
	Blowin' harp!

SKYSUMMIT Administrator President \| Director of Operations Posts: 64,384 Staff Member	HURRICANE ZETA Discussion Thread Oct 23, 2020 7:35:40 GMT -6 chloe06 and Stacie-Wiggins, MS like this Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by SKYSUMMIT on Oct 23, 2020 7:35:40 GMT -6 Thanks to a front coming down, 95L should remain well to the east of Louisiana, likely affecting the Florida peninsula.
	Hammond, LA --> 2022/2023 Number of Freezes: 2 NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08 CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23

shannalynn35 Tropical Low Posts: 22	HURRICANE ZETA Discussion Thread Oct 23, 2020 7:36:57 GMT -6 via mobile Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by shannalynn35 on Oct 23, 2020 7:36:57 GMT -6 Oct 23, 2020 7:35:40 GMT -6 SKYSUMMIT said: Thanks to a front coming down, 95L should remain well to the east of Louisiana, likely affecting the Florida peninsula. Thoughts on the Tampa Bay Area?

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HURRICANE ZETA Discussion Thread Oct 23, 2020 7:42:15 GMT -6 geo2 - Bush/Waldheim Metroplex and shannalynn35 like this

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Oct 23, 2020 7:42:15 GMT -6

Oct 23, 2020 7:36:57 GMT -6 shannalynn35 said:

Oct 23, 2020 7:35:40 GMT -6 SKYSUMMIT said:

Thanks to a front coming down, 95L should remain well to the east of Louisiana, likely affecting the Florida peninsula.

Thoughts on the Tampa Bay Area?

Definitely keep a close eye on it...from the panhandle through the entire Florida peninsula. This is the time of year that storms like to bend north and northeast thanks to approaching cool fronts. We've also seen some pretty significant storms in the past take a track similar to what 95L may take.

Last Edit: Oct 23, 2020 7:43:21 GMT -6 by SKYSUMMIT

Hammond, LA --> 2022/2023 Number of Freezes: 2
NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08
CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23

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HURRICANE ZETA Discussion Thread Oct 23, 2020 8:03:20 GMT -6 geo2 - Bush/Waldheim Metroplex and NavyMom: WBR Parish like this

Post by SCOT PILIE' on Oct 23, 2020 8:03:20 GMT -6

Well, only fitting for this year, tracking a potential Gulf disturbance when we're almost to Halloween. LOL.

Going to be interesting with regards to this system's future. Based on satellite presence, I would expect the percentages for development to increase later today..

Forecast models have been trending stronger with the ridge of high pressure to the north of this system, which favors a track of the disturbance into the southern Gulf of Mexico by Tuesday.

Key longer term looks to be the system's strength & the timing/strength of the approaching cold front mid/late week...

Stronger system & stronger/quicker-arriving front -- Not a problem for Louisiana as it will be steered well east of our area.

Weaker system & slower/weaker front -- System may find itself further west towards the Central Gulf Coast.

Fortunately, wind shear does look to be an inhibitor once in the Gulf, especially the northern Gulf by Wednesday/Thursday. In addition, cooler water temps in the upper 70s in the northern Gulf of Mexico.

Can this season end already...

Last Edit: Oct 23, 2020 8:07:52 GMT -6 by SCOT PILIE'

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HURRICANE ZETA Discussion Thread Oct 23, 2020 8:06:06 GMT -6 geo2 - Bush/Waldheim Metroplex likes this

Post by NavyMom: WBR Parish on Oct 23, 2020 8:06:06 GMT -6

From Zack's FB a moment ago...
"I’d watch this feature entering the Gulf. Next week’s front will merge with whatever this becomes so heavy rainfall could be an issue along the Gulf Coast mid next week.:"

“On Christ, the solid Rock I stand. Everything else is just sinking sand.”

Ambient Weather:
ambientweather.net/dashboard/29355f8f3f87e2a4ec7ccc562ab0f3cf

WU:
www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KLAADDIS7

optimist GCWX Supporter Posts: 478	HURRICANE ZETA Discussion Thread Oct 23, 2020 11:21:53 GMT -6 Crafty1 and NavyMom: WBR Parish like this Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by optimist on Oct 23, 2020 11:21:53 GMT -6 The GFS looks like it wants to bring whatever 95L becomes up to the Central Gulf Coast - not the peninsula unless i am reading them wrong (6z and 12z)

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HURRICANE ZETA Discussion Thread Oct 23, 2020 12:30:12 GMT -6 loogaroo likes this

Post by hurricaner on Oct 23, 2020 12:30:12 GMT -6

Invest 95L is now in the red.

Satellite images and radar data indicate that the broad area of low
pressure located just west of Grand Cayman Island is gradually
becoming better defined. Environmental conditions appear conducive
for further development, and a tropical depression will likely form
during the next day or two while the low drifts toward the
northwest. The system could move near western Cuba by Sunday and
move slowly across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by early next
week. Interests in western Cuba, the Florida Keys, and southern
Florida should monitor the progress of this disturbance. Regardless
of development, locally heavy rainfall will be possible over
portions of the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, Cuba, southern Florida,
the Florida Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas through the weekend.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Last Edit: Oct 23, 2020 12:31:13 GMT -6 by hurricaner

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homeymandeville Category 5 Posts: 1,091	HURRICANE ZETA Discussion Thread Oct 23, 2020 13:03:03 GMT -6 via mobile southpaw and NavyMom: WBR Parish like this Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by homeymandeville on Oct 23, 2020 13:03:03 GMT -6 According to what I have been hearing from local mets, there is uncertainty on the timing and strength of the front. Stay tuned is what I would say.

charitymike-Bridge City WB GCWX Supporter Posts: 351	HURRICANE ZETA Discussion Thread Oct 23, 2020 13:52:22 GMT -6 via mobile Cheshire Cat and wbanklady like this Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by charitymike-Bridge City WB on Oct 23, 2020 13:52:22 GMT -6 Uggg..can we just get to winter already!

loogaroo GCWX Supporter Posts: 670	HURRICANE ZETA Discussion Thread Oct 23, 2020 15:05:10 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by loogaroo on Oct 23, 2020 15:05:10 GMT -6 It already has a tight little circulation. Check out the swirl in the vis sat...weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-W_Caribbean-02-48-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

nolasim Moderator Posts: 5,759 Staff Member	HURRICANE ZETA Discussion Thread Oct 23, 2020 19:56:49 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by nolasim on Oct 23, 2020 19:56:49 GMT -6 GFS and ICON both have it sitting down there for awhile before moving to the Big Bend area of Florida on October 28th. EURO doesn't do anything with it as far as I can tell.
	"Let's work the problem, people; don't make things worse by guessing!" Gene Krantz, Flight Director, Apollo 13

hurricaner
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HURRICANE ZETA Discussion Thread Oct 23, 2020 23:51:24 GMT -6

Post by hurricaner on Oct 23, 2020 23:51:24 GMT -6

Invest 95L is getting close.

Satellite and surface observations indicate that a broad area of low
pressure has redeveloped just south of Grand Cayman Island. Shower
and thunderstorm activity continues to increase in organization,
and environmental conditions are expected to remain conducive for
further development. A tropical depression will likely form during
the next day or two while the low drifts toward the northwest or
north. The system could move near western Cuba by Sunday and move
slowly across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by early next week.
Interests in western Cuba, the Florida Keys, and southern Florida
should monitor the progress of this disturbance. Regardless of
development, locally heavy rainfall will be possible over portions
of the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, Cuba, southern Florida, the Florida
Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas through the weekend and into
early next week.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Last Edit: Oct 23, 2020 23:52:26 GMT -6 by hurricaner

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stormydds: Thanks for your response. I felt that is the case. that's too bad. Has there been any peer reviewed papers on the LRC hypothesis? Nov 4, 2022 14:01:51 GMT -6

Zack Fradella: Not sure, the LRC is something that takes a lot of work to follow and keep up with. It's not as easy as looking at the parameters and making a forecast. This deters many from even giving it a chance. Also, there is some doubt from the weather world. Nov 4, 2022 3:38:49 GMT -6

stormydds: Zack, a friend had a meeting in Lafayette which Rob Perillo spoke.He asked him why the LRC is not used to forecast hurricanes by NOAA.His answer was that Lezak won't share the info.I saw the podcast you and David made with Gary.He seemed open.What gives? Nov 3, 2022 14:39:19 GMT -6

HURRICANE ZETA Discussion Thread

Post by hurricaner on Oct 23, 2020 6:14:02 GMT -6

Post by chloe06 on Oct 23, 2020 6:58:59 GMT -6

Post by harpman on Oct 23, 2020 7:17:12 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Oct 23, 2020 7:35:40 GMT -6

Post by shannalynn35 on Oct 23, 2020 7:36:57 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Oct 23, 2020 7:42:15 GMT -6

Post by SCOT PILIE' on Oct 23, 2020 8:03:20 GMT -6

Post by NavyMom: WBR Parish on Oct 23, 2020 8:06:06 GMT -6

Post by optimist on Oct 23, 2020 11:21:53 GMT -6

Post by hurricaner on Oct 23, 2020 12:30:12 GMT -6

Post by homeymandeville on Oct 23, 2020 13:03:03 GMT -6

Post by charitymike-Bridge City WB on Oct 23, 2020 13:52:22 GMT -6

Post by loogaroo on Oct 23, 2020 15:05:10 GMT -6

Post by nolasim on Oct 23, 2020 19:56:49 GMT -6

Post by hurricaner on Oct 23, 2020 23:51:24 GMT -6

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