The disturbance in the NW Caribbean has gotten much better organized and is now Invest 95L'
A broad area of low pressure located near Grand Cayman Island is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms mainly east and south of the center. This system has become much better organized since yesterday, and a tropical depression could form during the next couple of days while the low moves slowly toward the northwest. This system is now anticipated to move near western Cuba this weekend and move slowly across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by early next week. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall will be possible over portions of the Cayman Islands, Cuba, southern Florida and the Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas through the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
Last Edit: Oct 29, 2020 17:09:06 GMT -6 by SKYSUMMIT
Thanks to a front coming down, 95L should remain well to the east of Louisiana, likely affecting the Florida peninsula.
Thoughts on the Tampa Bay Area?
Definitely keep a close eye on it...from the panhandle through the entire Florida peninsula. This is the time of year that storms like to bend north and northeast thanks to approaching cool fronts. We've also seen some pretty significant storms in the past take a track similar to what 95L may take.
Last Edit: Oct 23, 2020 7:43:21 GMT -6 by SKYSUMMIT
Hammond, LA NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08 CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23
Post by SCOT PILIE' on Oct 23, 2020 8:03:20 GMT -6
Well, only fitting for this year, tracking a potential Gulf disturbance when we're almost to Halloween. LOL.
Going to be interesting with regards to this system's future. Based on satellite presence, I would expect the percentages for development to increase later today..
Forecast models have been trending stronger with the ridge of high pressure to the north of this system, which favors a track of the disturbance into the southern Gulf of Mexico by Tuesday.
Key longer term looks to be the system's strength & the timing/strength of the approaching cold front mid/late week...
Stronger system & stronger/quicker-arriving front -- Not a problem for Louisiana as it will be steered well east of our area.
Weaker system & slower/weaker front -- System may find itself further west towards the Central Gulf Coast.
Fortunately, wind shear does look to be an inhibitor once in the Gulf, especially the northern Gulf by Wednesday/Thursday. In addition, cooler water temps in the upper 70s in the northern Gulf of Mexico.
Can this season end already...
Last Edit: Oct 23, 2020 8:07:52 GMT -6 by SCOT PILIE'
Post by rnj79: Addis, WBR Parish on Oct 23, 2020 8:06:06 GMT -6
From Zack's FB a moment ago... "I’d watch this feature entering the Gulf. Next week’s front will merge with whatever this becomes so heavy rainfall could be an issue along the Gulf Coast mid next week.:"
“On Christ, the solid Rock I stand. Everything else is just sinking sand.”
Post by hurricaner on Oct 23, 2020 12:30:12 GMT -6
Invest 95L is now in the red.
Satellite images and radar data indicate that the broad area of low pressure located just west of Grand Cayman Island is gradually becoming better defined. Environmental conditions appear conducive for further development, and a tropical depression will likely form during the next day or two while the low drifts toward the northwest. The system could move near western Cuba by Sunday and move slowly across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by early next week. Interests in western Cuba, the Florida Keys, and southern Florida should monitor the progress of this disturbance. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall will be possible over portions of the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, Cuba, southern Florida, the Florida Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas through the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
Last Edit: Oct 23, 2020 12:31:13 GMT -6 by hurricaner
GFS and ICON both have it sitting down there for awhile before moving to the Big Bend area of Florida on October 28th. EURO doesn't do anything with it as far as I can tell.
"Let's work the problem, people; don't make things worse by guessing!"
Post by hurricaner on Oct 23, 2020 23:51:24 GMT -6
Invest 95L is getting close.
Satellite and surface observations indicate that a broad area of low pressure has redeveloped just south of Grand Cayman Island. Shower and thunderstorm activity continues to increase in organization, and environmental conditions are expected to remain conducive for further development. A tropical depression will likely form during the next day or two while the low drifts toward the northwest or north. The system could move near western Cuba by Sunday and move slowly across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by early next week. Interests in western Cuba, the Florida Keys, and southern Florida should monitor the progress of this disturbance. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall will be possible over portions of the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, Cuba, southern Florida, the Florida Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas through the weekend and into early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
Last Edit: Oct 23, 2020 23:52:26 GMT -6 by hurricaner