We'll be monitoring for a round of severe weather this coming Wednesday! The SPC is starting off with a very large scale envelope of 15% risk (equivalent to a Slight Risk) so we know where this leads...upgrading to at least an Enhanced Risk for someone depending on the future track of the low pressure system during the week.
By Day 5/Wednesday, a more substantially unstable environment, encompassing a large area, is likely, as a moist Gulf airmass streams northward, beneath rather steep lapse rates advecting eastward. With an eastward moving surface cyclone and attendant warm and cold fronts focusing ascent, and the likelihood for broad warm advection/QG ascent within the expanding warm sector, scattered severe storms appear likely even given timing/location differences of surface features amongst the models. While a more concentrated area or areas of severe weather may evolve Wednesday, those details -- and any associated outlook highlights -- will require discernment in subsequent outlooks nearer the event. For now, a large/broad 15% risk area will be introduced, representing a large envelope of all-hazards severe potential.
Last Edit: Mar 13, 2021 8:32:01 GMT -6 by SKYSUMMIT
Will - Ascension Parish I agree...that's usually the norm for us. We'll have to wait and see, but I'm thinking we will see storms develop over south Louisiana, but won't fully mature until they're moving into MS and AL.
The SPC removed most of Louisiana from the Enhanced Risk, per their latest update.
LOL! Why they continue to put southern Louisiana in any enhanced risk category anymore is beyond my level of comprehension. Southeast Louisiana gets maybe five actual severe storms a year and those are almost never predicted.
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We should have tons of energy down here for convective development, but it's looking like the best overall severe parameters will be just to our northeast. So as these storms develop and move northeast over MS and AL, they should quickly mature and go tornadic. Like every other severe weather event, we'll have to wait and see how this plays out.
If I was chasing, I'd probably start my base in Hattiesburg and see how activity develops.