Severe Weather Discussion - 3/17/2021 (St Patty's Day)

We'll be monitoring for a round of severe weather this coming Wednesday! The SPC is starting off with a very large scale envelope of 15% risk (equivalent to a Slight Risk) so we know where this leads...upgrading to at least an Enhanced Risk for someone depending on the future track of the low pressure system during the week.

By Day 5/Wednesday, a more substantially unstable environment,
encompassing a large area, is likely, as a moist Gulf airmass
streams northward, beneath rather steep lapse rates advecting
eastward. With an eastward moving surface cyclone and attendant
warm and cold fronts focusing ascent, and the likelihood for broad
warm advection/QG ascent within the expanding warm sector, scattered
severe storms appear likely even given timing/location differences
of surface features amongst the models. While a more concentrated
area or areas of severe weather may evolve Wednesday, those details
-- and any associated outlook highlights -- will require discernment
in subsequent outlooks nearer the event. For now, a large/broad 15%
risk area will be introduced, representing a large envelope of
all-hazards severe potential.