Post by grisairgasm on Mar 17, 2021 9:26:24 GMT -6
Mid March and I have 80F , 75 DewPoint, and 29.81 pressure here. Very windy. Lot’s of energy flowing into areas north of here for the severe feast. Watching bits of TWC and I can’t remember the last time I’ve seen TORCAN numbers like this. Still hard to believe this is going to be so widespread at these forecast destructive levels. Personally I would be in my chosen shelter this PM in the PDS areas. Keep in mind my personal tornado and wall cloud experiences. If you are in a watched or warned area in the middle of a storm pay close attention to the rain and / or hail. If u are having 15-30 seconds of cyclic precipitation beware. I have found the precip to literally stop and start maybe 3 times per minute or something similar. I think these are sheets of rain rotating around the vortex. The 2017 Jefferson parish Elmwood tornado went right through my backyard as an EF 0-1. I’ll never forget the sudden stopping and starting of the rain for about 90 seconds before it arrived.
Post by Shibumi-Mandeville I-12/Hwy59 on Mar 17, 2021 9:26:36 GMT -6
It's got that juiced up feel out there.....pretty breezy.
Makes me think about the not so long ago when we knew nothing about weather forecasting......I'd assume folks would know this time of year seeing fast moving clouds from the south and breezy conditions might mean severe weather coming.
SUMMARY...The environment is becoming increasingly favorable for tornadic supercells and a PDS tornado watch will likely be needed within the next hour or two.
DISCUSSION...Regional radar and satellite imagery continues to show deepening convection within the broad and robust warm-air advection regime across much of MS and AL. Some modest clearing occurred briefly ahead of the leading showers over MS and temperatures across much of central and southern MS are now in the mid 70s. Slightly cooler surface temperatures exist across central/southern AL. Dewpoints exhibit a similar trend, with upper 60s/low 70s across much of central/southern MS and mid to upper 60s across central/southern AL. These thermodynamic conditions have eroded much of the convective inhibition across the region, although forecast soundings do suggests some minimal (i.e. MLCIN of -25 J/kg or more) likely remains in place at the top of the boundary layer. Continued moistening of the low-level profile coupled with slight cooling aloft should result in a removal of all convective inhibition.
In addition to improving thermodynamics, the low-level wind fields continue to increase. Recent VAD profiles from LIX and DGX show 50 kts within the 1-2 km layer. Latest VAD from DGX also sampled 0-3 km storm-relative helicity over 350 m2/s2. These strengthening low-level winds are expected to persist while gradually spreading northward/northeastward into more of northern AL. Deep-layer vertical shear is already in place over the region, with 0-6 km bulk shear currently 50 kt over central MS/AL, increasing to 70 kt over northern MS/AL.
In all, the overall environment is expected to becoming increasingly favorable for discrete supercells capable of all severe hazards, including intense tornadoes. These initial storms are forecast to develop within the 17-19Z time frame. A prolonged threat for tornadoes is anticipated across the region, with conditions remaining favorable well into the evening.
..Mosier/Grams.. 03/17/2021
Last Edit: Mar 17, 2021 10:08:23 GMT -6 by SKYSUMMIT
SUMMARY...The environment is becoming increasingly favorable for tornadic supercells and a PDS tornado watch will likely be needed within the next hour or two.
DISCUSSION...Regional radar and satellite imagery continues to show deepening convection within the broad and robust warm-air advection regime across much of MS and AL. Some modest clearing occurred briefly ahead of the leading showers over MS and temperatures across much of central and southern MS are now in the mid 70s. Slightly cooler surface temperatures exist across central/southern AL. Dewpoints exhibit a similar trend, with upper 60s/low 70s across much of central/southern MS and mid to upper 60s across central/southern AL. These thermodynamic conditions have eroded much of the convective inhibition across the region, although forecast soundings do suggests some minimal (i.e. MLCIN of -25 J/kg or more) likely remains in place at the top of the boundary layer. Continued moistening of the low-level profile coupled with slight cooling aloft should result in a removal of all convective inhibition.
In addition to improving thermodynamics, the low-level wind fields continue to increase. Recent VAD profiles from LIX and DGX show 50 kts within the 1-2 km layer. Latest VAD from DGX also sampled 0-3 km storm-relative helicity over 350 m2/s2. These strengthening low-level winds are expected to persist while gradually spreading northward/northeastward into more of northern AL. Deep-layer vertical shear is already in place over the region, with 0-6 km bulk shear currently 50 kt over central MS/AL, increasing to 70 kt over northern MS/AL.
In all, the overall environment is expected to becoming increasingly favorable for discrete supercells capable of all severe hazards, including intense tornadoes. These initial storms are forecast to develop within the 17-19Z time frame. A prolonged threat for tornadoes is anticipated across the region, with conditions remaining favorable well into the evening.
..Mosier/Grams.. 03/17/2021
Oh my God, I have alot of family and friends in that area. My brother lives in that area! I've given them all a heads up! Unbelievable!
The new Outlook has the Moderate Risk about the same, but has expanded the High Risk slightly to the south.
...Deep South... Minor change made to the categorical HIGH risk area to expand a bit. Main change is to the underlying probabilities with the addition of a 45 tor and 45 wind. A dangerous, long-duration tornado outbreak expected to commence this afternoon and persist well into tonight with multiple rounds of heightened tornado potential.
Last Edit: Mar 17, 2021 10:18:04 GMT -6 by SKYSUMMIT
Post by grisairgasm on Mar 17, 2021 10:25:55 GMT -6
Watch how these things will probably explode out of nothing and be dangerous 20 minutes after genesis. We’ve seen this many times before. Always fascinating.
Post by Stephanie Carpenter, WBANK JP on Mar 17, 2021 10:56:39 GMT -6
I am becoming increasingly worried and scared crapless for my family and friends and our fellow forum members that are in this hatched area! I'm praying for everyone in this area! GODSPEED!
Post by HarahanTim - Now in Covington! on Mar 17, 2021 10:59:49 GMT -6
Here we go!
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Mobile AL 1158 AM CDT Wed Mar 17 2021
The National Weather Service in Mobile has issued a
* Tornado Warning for... Southwestern Choctaw County in southwestern Alabama... Central Wayne County in southeastern Mississippi...
* Until 1245 PM CDT.
* At 1158 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located 4 miles south of Mill Creek, or 12 miles east of Laurel, moving northeast at 30 mph.
HAZARD...Tornado.
SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.
IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely.
* This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of southwestern Choctaw and central Wayne Counties.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris.
Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.
Post by HarahanTim - Now in Covington! on Mar 17, 2021 11:08:43 GMT -6
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Jackson MS 1207 PM CDT Wed Mar 17 2021
The National Weather Service in Jackson has issued a
* Tornado Warning for... Southern Clarke County in east central Mississippi...
* Until 100 PM CDT.
* At 1207 PM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located near Mill Creek, or 13 miles west of Waynesboro, moving northeast at 35 mph.
HAZARD...Damaging tornado.
SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado.
IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely.
* This tornadic storm will be near... Crandall around 1255 PM CDT.
Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Shubuta.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
To repeat, a tornado is on the ground. TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris.