Post by Zack Fradella on Aug 12, 2021 20:01:01 GMT -6
I thought y’all would be interested in this!
Remember Delta and Zeta? What if I told you those storms last October can be a guide to when we may see a storm this year? It’s called the LRC, the Lezak Recurring Cycle and Gary Lezak himself was on today’s David Bernard Podcast.
Eric Burris was another guest, he is a meteorologist in Orlando that has seen this theory work in the tropics over the years.
I don’t watch podcasts but this was unbelievably interesting. This Cycle should have its own ongoing thread. It would be fun to track how the weather lines up with the cycle especially when it is slow around here. I’m a believer, I’ll see you guys around September 7 because the cycle says it won’t be interesting for SELA until then😛
Post by PinkFreud - Nola FQ on Aug 12, 2021 21:56:05 GMT -6
Zack, this is amazing. Thanks for posting this! Trying not to put on a tinfoil hat, but can't help but wonder if this might not be The Farmer's Almanac's secret sauce?
Zack, this is amazing. Thanks for posting this! Trying not to put on a tinfoil hat, but can't help but wonder if this might not be The Farmer's Almanac's secret sauce?
I think this could be a good thread to keep up with.
Sure enough Grace is phasing with the Gamma signal. Next up after that is the Delta western Gulf signal and well don’t look at the 18Z GFS.
Crazy stuff…
Absolutely let’s keep watching his hypothesis unfold. One of the most entertaining podcasts yet. I bit hard hook,line, and sinker. I actually think he is at least partially correct. Now I can’t get
September 13-23 out of my head. To be fair though, that is just past what is expected to be a busy remaining season and of course chances are higher for a Gulf system then. If I understood him correctly it’s not an intensity forecast at all. He just sees anything from a harmless Gulf low to a major hurricane. So an area of weather, near N Gulfcoast, during that timeframe. So interesting.
Post by Zack Fradella on Aug 17, 2021 11:56:29 GMT -6
We are just now about to end the cycle again...I think. Eta was Fred, you can almost have a case for Henri being Theta if it hooks hard right on its path out to sea.
Grace will start the new cycle and be Gamma in 2-4 days. We are then looking for the Delta signal about 5-7 days later in the western Gulf. Around 25th - 31st
Post by grisairgasm on Aug 17, 2021 12:41:00 GMT -6
Better clarification. Thanks. This is the best weather idea I’ve seen in awhile. Gotta kick out of you and David smirking and trying not to laugh when Lezak got specific but all in good fun. I get the feeling you and David are going to look into this and journal.
Post by grisairgasm on Aug 17, 2021 12:55:45 GMT -6
I’m on a roll today lol! So if I really think about it and what Lezak implies then weather is not random. On micro or macro levels. Or have we known this in modern society and continue to unlock the recurring complexities? Has Lezak and his followers figured out even a little bit? It makes partial sense to me also about the sun angle and the n hemisphere after the Equinox on Sept 21. Basically a lot of sun driven heat dissipates and allows for a new and more stabilized pattern? Can somebody chime in here on the sun’s role? I’m going to watch the podcast again.
For fun and kicks, I saw again the August 12, 2021, podcast with Dave Bernard, Gary Lezak, Zach Fradelle and Eric (can't remember the last name). Gary said that according to his yearly Lezak Recurring Cycle (LRC) theory, New Orleans had an over 82% chance of having a major hurricane hit between September 13-23, 2021. Ida was August 29, 2021. I sure hope that Ida counted even though her timing is a bit off. I'm curious what Gary has to say about Ida's timing and his LRC theory.
Also in the podcast, Gary talked about the LRC re-establishing yearly in October, making Oct/Nov predictions dicey using the LRC. I'd like to see this podcast topic with the same peeps revisited after the LRC pattern re-establishes, and see what Gary is predicting for 2022.
Post by Zack Fradella on Dec 10, 2021 10:58:44 GMT -6
Okay, I am not certain the cycle is correct yet as we are just now turning over the LRC. We will see how this plays out. Remember, the individual day/weather aren't exacts...it's the broad based pattern. See how the start of the cycle in October produced a few days of rain, well the re-cycle produced a few days of rain the past few days. Next big feature is the Gulf Coast ridge around December 15th, then a quick cold blast early Christmas week. That doesn't flip us to sustained cold though, the LRC says that doesn't come until around the New Year.
Last Edit: Dec 10, 2021 10:58:58 GMT -6 by Zack Fradella
Post by fleurdelisa-Folsom, LA on Mar 6, 2022 14:43:44 GMT -6
Zack, I know you've kept up with this for a while. Curious if (when?) you'll post your thoughts on this year's hurricane season. Watching Eric Burris's discussion, it looks like *maybe* we will escape anything major in SELA.