Post by grisairgasm on Mar 16, 2022 15:36:57 GMT -6
Doesn’t really look so bad for the Sshore. Not sure what to think overall. One thing for sure…these quick events this time of year can over perform sometimes.
Doesn’t really look so bad for the Sshore. Not sure what to think overall. One thing for sure…these quick events this time of year can over perform sometimes.
IDK about that.
Looks to me a warm front is going to pull up through the southshore ahead of the storms. Would give us some surface based instability with a lot of low level shear.
High straight line winds and hail are still the most likely severe impacts but I wouldnt sleep on the tornado potential.
Post by darius Bogalusa on Mar 16, 2022 21:23:08 GMT -6
Just saw Zach post...have to remember we can't focus on where the exact points of where the models have the highest threats...if you're in the area with the highest risk, Those supercells can form anywhere at anytime of the threat
Doesn’t really look so bad for the Sshore. Not sure what to think overall. One thing for sure…these quick events this time of year can over perform sometimes.
IDK about that.
Looks to me a warm front is going to pull up through the southshore ahead of the storms. Would give us some surface based instability with a lot of low level shear.
High straight line winds and hail are still the most likely severe impacts but I wouldnt sleep on the tornado potential.
Was going to ask about rotational shear but had not heard it mentioned yet. Thanks. It is that time of year. Surprises shouldn’t be a surprise lol!
Are u seeing new data? Bernard Fox 8 alluded to a possible enhanced upgrade. Not looking forward to the wee hours camped out in the recliner on aluminum storm shutter watch. The 2017 Elmwood tornado came through my backyard. Didn’t have time to get the sliding glass door cover down. The backyard looked like confetti in a blender. Like a polluted dust devil. Never again. Ran and dove under the front room bed. It’s scary shit and happens sooo fast. One day I’ll figure out how to post the pictures.
Are u seeing new data? Bernard Fox 8 alluded to a possible enhanced upgrade. Not looking forward to the wee hours camped out in the recliner on aluminum storm shutter watch. The 2017 Elmwood tornado came through my backyard. Didn’t have time to get the sliding glass door cover down. The backyard looked like confetti in a blender. Like a polluted dust devil. Never again. Ran and dove under the front room bed. It’s scary shit and happens sooo fast. One day I’ll figure out how to post the pictures.
Just read Zacks post about the increase threat of tornadoes and the concerns he have....So was just reflecting off his post
Post by grisairgasm on Mar 16, 2022 22:10:16 GMT -6
Yeah yeah. I’m half watching Ukraine and skimmed through the post missing the Zack part lol! I will say this: watch out if those lone cells have that ENE movement. 2017 made me learn a lot about that angle.
Post by grisairgasm on Mar 16, 2022 22:19:21 GMT -6
Just looked at Zack FB. Don’t like that at all. And even more concerns always on the Northshore. Seriously, I’d have a specific shelter or modified interior room anywhere N of I12. The Amite to Purvis tornado was horrible.
Post by thermalwind - Touro on Mar 16, 2022 22:20:10 GMT -6
The CAMs came back aggressive tonight. I too wouldn't be surprised with an enhanced bump for pretty much all of SELA from roughly east of the Atchafalaya.
Also don't really care for the storm mode they are showing. Would rather a straight up line of storms vs the broken line of individual cells and clusters of cells.
![](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT02/refresh/AL022022_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/204710_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png")
