We have a large Slight Risk for for tomorrow into Friday morning.
Last Edit: Mar 16, 2022 5:31:46 GMT -6 by SKYSUMMIT
REALTOR - Team Geaux Realty, LLC (Let me be your Realtor!) Search homes on my website --> www.scottguidry.com/ NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08 CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23
Anything on the potential for a more robust system in the south in 7 days??
Unless something changes, we're probably looking at an Enhanced Risk here locally for Day 7 right now.
REALTOR - Team Geaux Realty, LLC (Let me be your Realtor!) Search homes on my website --> www.scottguidry.com/ NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08 CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23
Post by grisairgasm on Mar 16, 2022 15:36:57 GMT -6
Doesn’t really look so bad for the Sshore. Not sure what to think overall. One thing for sure…these quick events this time of year can over perform sometimes.
Doesn’t really look so bad for the Sshore. Not sure what to think overall. One thing for sure…these quick events this time of year can over perform sometimes.
IDK about that.
Looks to me a warm front is going to pull up through the southshore ahead of the storms. Would give us some surface based instability with a lot of low level shear.
High straight line winds and hail are still the most likely severe impacts but I wouldnt sleep on the tornado potential.
Post by darius Bogalusa on Mar 16, 2022 21:23:08 GMT -6
Just saw Zach post...have to remember we can't focus on where the exact points of where the models have the highest threats...if you're in the area with the highest risk, Those supercells can form anywhere at anytime of the threat
Doesn’t really look so bad for the Sshore. Not sure what to think overall. One thing for sure…these quick events this time of year can over perform sometimes.
IDK about that.
Looks to me a warm front is going to pull up through the southshore ahead of the storms. Would give us some surface based instability with a lot of low level shear.
High straight line winds and hail are still the most likely severe impacts but I wouldnt sleep on the tornado potential.
Was going to ask about rotational shear but had not heard it mentioned yet. Thanks. It is that time of year. Surprises shouldn’t be a surprise lol!
Are u seeing new data? Bernard Fox 8 alluded to a possible enhanced upgrade. Not looking forward to the wee hours camped out in the recliner on aluminum storm shutter watch. The 2017 Elmwood tornado came through my backyard. Didn’t have time to get the sliding glass door cover down. The backyard looked like confetti in a blender. Like a polluted dust devil. Never again. Ran and dove under the front room bed. It’s scary shit and happens sooo fast. One day I’ll figure out how to post the pictures.
Are u seeing new data? Bernard Fox 8 alluded to a possible enhanced upgrade. Not looking forward to the wee hours camped out in the recliner on aluminum storm shutter watch. The 2017 Elmwood tornado came through my backyard. Didn’t have time to get the sliding glass door cover down. The backyard looked like confetti in a blender. Like a polluted dust devil. Never again. Ran and dove under the front room bed. It’s scary shit and happens sooo fast. One day I’ll figure out how to post the pictures.
Just read Zacks post about the increase threat of tornadoes and the concerns he have....So was just reflecting off his post
Post by grisairgasm on Mar 16, 2022 22:10:16 GMT -6
Yeah yeah. I’m half watching Ukraine and skimmed through the post missing the Zack part lol! I will say this: watch out if those lone cells have that ENE movement. 2017 made me learn a lot about that angle.
Post by grisairgasm on Mar 16, 2022 22:19:21 GMT -6
Just looked at Zack FB. Don’t like that at all. And even more concerns always on the Northshore. Seriously, I’d have a specific shelter or modified interior room anywhere N of I12. The Amite to Purvis tornado was horrible.
Post by thermalwind - Touro on Mar 16, 2022 22:20:10 GMT -6
The CAMs came back aggressive tonight. I too wouldn't be surprised with an enhanced bump for pretty much all of SELA from roughly east of the Atchafalaya.
Also don't really care for the storm mode they are showing. Would rather a straight up line of storms vs the broken line of individual cells and clusters of cells.
SKYSUMMIT: I'm hoping we're shoveling snow for Christmas
Nov 16, 2022 14:58:12 GMT -6
stormydds: Thanks for your reply... as usual
Nov 5, 2022 11:37:29 GMT -6
Zack Fradella: Yea, Lezak had a paper peer reviewed and published a year or so ago.
Nov 5, 2022 9:03:24 GMT -6
stormydds: Thanks for your response. I felt that is the case. that's too bad. Has there been any peer reviewed papers on the LRC hypothesis?
Nov 4, 2022 14:01:51 GMT -6
Zack Fradella: Not sure, the LRC is something that takes a lot of work to follow and keep up with. It's not as easy as looking at the parameters and making a forecast. This deters many from even giving it a chance. Also, there is some doubt from the weather world.
Nov 4, 2022 3:38:49 GMT -6
stormydds: Zack, a friend had a meeting in Lafayette which Rob Perillo spoke.He asked him why the LRC is not used to forecast hurricanes by NOAA.His answer was that Lezak won't share the info.I saw the podcast you and David made with Gary.He seemed open.What gives?
Nov 3, 2022 14:39:19 GMT -6
SKYSUMMIT: Man I really hope that rain moves quickly on Saturday. I'm so pumped for 6 hours of awesome college football!
Nov 3, 2022 7:15:01 GMT -6
PinkFreud - Nola FQ: Been unblocked. Dylan says that the station took major damage, so no idea when they'll even be able to stream again, or be on the air. Hopefully, they will at least let their employees deal with their own property issues!
Oct 2, 2022 18:17:35 GMT -6
gullywasher: Seriously, must we deal with Bruce Katz at noon, 4, 5 AND 9. ?
Sept 30, 2022 20:03:25 GMT -6
PinkFreud - Nola FQ: According to another met on twitter, the kitten was rescued by a producer who's adopting it. Of course that hasn't stopped the angry mob, with torches and pitchforks, who are insisting that it's a lie.
Sept 29, 2022 17:48:05 GMT -6
nolachic: Pink - he's probably blocking people he doesn't personally know to keep his cell charged and to get his head straight, and I'm sure he is beyond exhausted.
Sept 29, 2022 9:23:35 GMT -6
SKYSUMMIT: I sent him a message yesterday as well, but he hasn't seen it.
Sept 29, 2022 5:46:06 GMT -6
PinkFreud - Nola FQ: Oh hell, I meant for that to be a message!
Sept 28, 2022 19:38:19 GMT -6
PinkFreud - Nola FQ: Dylan is taking a beating on Twitter. I just tried to send him a message of support, since we've been following each other for years, and HE BLOCKED ME!!!!!! Somebody who can get to him needs to do so, pronto!!! I'm very worried about him.
Sept 28, 2022 19:37:27 GMT -6
HarahanTim - Now in Covington!: Hmmm, I will say. that somewhere back there, we have stored the "Tums" icon, for those that give a prediction based on their "gut"!
Sept 24, 2022 11:38:12 GMT -6
T-man: Gully, no one here cares about your tender friggin' heart, ya big snoflake!!! :horns: :horns: :horns: :tongue:
Sept 24, 2022 10:24:18 GMT -6
