Looks like they did not upgrade the risk this morning. We'll see what happens later this afternoon.
But yeah...days 5 and 6 look very potent!
Days 5/6 - where does it look potent? Are we talking south Louisiana for a change or north of McComb as usual?
And tonight's event -- what's that looking like for the BR area? Is it still looking to be significant here or is that starting to phase out/away and northeastward as usual? Just wanting to figure out if I need to stay up tonight to pay attention or if it's got bust written all over it like we usually see in our neck of the woods. We're just too close to the gulf for most severe events.
Day 6 looks strong everywhere in the south, but the highest risk probably ends up just a little north of here. Still a lot of details to figure out though.
Tonight is still pretty much as it stood last night. Questions about when we get surfaced based storms that will provide the tornado threat but high winds and big hail will be on the board no matter what. Id think the tornado risk increases as you go east and give more time for the low level flow to bring warm air to destabilize at or very near the surface.
Post by rnj79: Addis, WBR Parish on Mar 17, 2022 10:38:08 GMT -6
They have stayed with a Slight Risk at the latest update:
...LA/MS overnight... Thunderstorm development is expected late tonight within an increasing warm/moist advection regime as the upper trough shifts east and the marine/warm front lifts north. Strong low-mid level wind fields will result in effective shear values sufficient for supercell storms with a risk for all severe hazards. An increase in tornado probabilities was considered with this outlook over portions of southwest MS and southeast/east-central LA for the potential for surface-based storms near the warm front, where a conditional risk for a significant tornado will exist. However, with concerns regarding a tendency for veering 850 mb flow during the 08-12z time frame have opted to maintain current categorical/probabilistic risk levels and shift tornado probabilities north across portions of southern MS/east-central LA. Additional adjustments to the risk in this area may be needed in later outlooks.
“On Christ, the solid Rock I stand. Everything else is just sinking sand.”
LIX: Be prepared for severe thunderstorm and tornado warnings to be issued tonight. Make sure you have a way to receive these warnings nearby while you sleep. Keep your phone turned on or weather radio in your room that will alert when a warning is issued.
Hammond, LA NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08 CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23
The short term models in general are not enthusiastic about severe thunderstorms or even much rainfall across southeast Louisiana. The global models are all continuing to show strong to severe thunderstorms and heavy rain all the way to the coast or even into the Gulf. The HRRR, NAM, FV3 hi-res, and WRF show anemic thunderstorms at most until one goes well inland away from the coast. Feel like the actual severe weather risk for southeast Louisiana is probably lower than it is perceived to be with this system.
The short term models in general are not enthusiastic about severe thunderstorms or even much rainfall across southeast Louisiana. The global models are all continuing to show strong to severe thunderstorms and heavy rain all the way to the coast or even into the Gulf. The HRRR, NAM, FV3 hi-res, and WRF show anemic thunderstorms at most until one goes well inland away from the coast. Feel like the actual severe weather risk for southeast Louisiana is probably lower than it is perceived to be with this system.
The short term models in general are not enthusiastic about severe thunderstorms or even much rainfall across southeast Louisiana. The global models are all continuing to show strong to severe thunderstorms and heavy rain all the way to the coast or even into the Gulf. The HRRR, NAM, FV3 hi-res, and WRF show anemic thunderstorms at most until one goes well inland away from the coast. Feel like the actual severe weather risk for southeast Louisiana is probably lower than it is perceived to be with this system.
I was just noticing that. The 18z EURO, that is still running, is still especially bullish on the precip, though in training areas.
Post by Shibumi-Mandeville I-12/Hwy59 on Mar 17, 2022 18:15:46 GMT -6
Yup...if you look at the short term models, any action doesn't get kicking until well into MS.
I think our risk is still there, but it is for isolated cells.
I'd say there is risk, just not widespread for our area.......but if you get impacted with severe weather you won't care much if it was widespread or not, thus the risk forecast is warranted....IMO
Post by HarahanTim - Now in Covington! on Mar 17, 2022 19:16:57 GMT -6
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0757 PM CDT Thu Mar 17 2022
Valid 180100Z - 181200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...
...SUMMARY... Threats for severe thunderstorms are expected late this this evening over parts of Oklahoma and northeast Texas, where large hail and wind damage will be possible. A threat for tornadoes, wind damage and isolated large hail will be possible in parts of southern Louisiana and southern Mississippi after midnight.
...Oklahoma/Northeast Texas... The latest water vapor imagery has a negatively tilted upper-level trough over the southern Plains. A broad plume of mid-level moisture extends from the Red River Valley northward into the central Plains, wrapping southwestward around the system into the southern and central High Plains. At the surface, a 999 mb low is locate in southwest Oklahoma. A narrow corridor of maximized low-level moisture is located from north-central Texas into central Oklahoma, where surface dewpoints range from the upper 40s to mid 50s F. The RAP is estimating MLCAPE along this corridor in the 1000 to 1200 J/kg range. Scattered thunderstorms have developed along the instability axis this evening. The storms will move north-northeastward across central Oklahoma and develop southeastward into southern Oklahoma and northeast Texas later this evening.
In addition to moderate instability, RAP forecast soundings this evening in central and southern Oklahoma have 40 to 50 knots of 0-6 km shear with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8.5 C/km. This environment will be favorable for supercells and large hail. Hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the more dominant cells. The potential for very large hail should develop southeastward across south-central Oklahoma and into far north Texas late this evening. Wind damage may also accompany the stronger thunderstorms as well.
...Southern Louisiana/Southern Mississippi... The upper-level trough in the southern Plains will move toward the Arklatex tonight as a 40 to 60 kt low-level jet strengthens in the lower Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a warm front will move from east Texas eastward across Louisiana tonight. Surface dewpoints along and southwest of the front will be in the 60s F, with MLCAPE likely reaching the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range. Thunderstorms are expected to form this evening in east Texas near the axis of the low-level jet and expand quickly in coverage, moving east-northeastward across the Arklatex tonight. Thunderstorms are also expected to develop southward across central and southern Louisiana after midnight.
RAP forecast soundings along the most favorable corridor for severe from southern and central Louisiana eastward into southwest Mississippi late tonight have MLCAPE near 2500 J/kg, 0-6 km shear around 40 knots and 0-3 km storm relative helicities in the 275 to 325 m2/s2 range. This should be favorable for supercells and tornadoes. A strong tornado will be possible, mainly in southeast Louisiana and southwest Mississippi, after 08Z when low-level shear will become maximized across the lower Mississippi Valley. Supercells will also be capable of producing wind damage and isolated large hail. Due to increasing potential for tornadoes overnight, will add an enhanced across parts of southeast Louisiana and southwest Mississippi.