Post by darius Bogalusa on Mar 20, 2022 17:58:23 GMT -6
Sandy hook, Columbia Ms Tyler town and the surrounding areas are usually ground zero for these type of events....Laurel Ms had a big event two years ago
The NWS discussion for our area is among the most complex and lengthiest I have ever read; it's giving me a headache. Of particular interest, though, is this excerpt:
Doubt remains on the eastward and southern extent at this time. But, we will begin to acquire higher confidence later tonight and especially into the day tomorrow once we are able to weigh out challenges and items to watch for. Like all events along the immediate northern Gulf, sometimes the smallest limiting factor can be the missing ingredient and we simply cannot identify that potential just yet. We will continue to closely monitor.
Additional hazards: We will likely reach wind advisory criteria during the day on Tuesday, especially for the southshore of coastal SE LA and coastal areas east across MS. Strong onshore flow may also result in higher than normal tides as well on Tuesday. Furthermore, ample moisture content and high PW`s will support heavy rain possibly leading to flash flooding concerns, especially for areas along/north of I-10/12. The potential for a Flash Flood Watch will also be assessed in subsequent shifts
"Let's work the problem, people; don't make things worse by guessing!"
The NWS discussion for our area is among the most complex and lengthiest I have ever read; it's giving me a headache. Of particular interest, though, is this excerpt:
Doubt remains on the eastward and southern extent at this time. But, we will begin to acquire higher confidence later tonight and especially into the day tomorrow once we are able to weigh out challenges and items to watch for. Like all events along the immediate northern Gulf, sometimes the smallest limiting factor can be the missing ingredient and we simply cannot identify that potential just yet. We will continue to closely monitor.
Additional hazards: We will likely reach wind advisory criteria during the day on Tuesday, especially for the southshore of coastal SE LA and coastal areas east across MS. Strong onshore flow may also result in higher than normal tides as well on Tuesday. Furthermore, ample moisture content and high PW`s will support heavy rain possibly leading to flash flooding concerns, especially for areas along/north of I-10/12. The potential for a Flash Flood Watch will also be assessed in subsequent shifts
If they start adding FFWs, we’ll get zero rain. It’s like a curse.
“On Christ, the solid Rock I stand. Everything else is just sinking sand.”
Are we thinking that this needs to be a school early dismissal type situation? I hate the thought of the kids being in school during this time and having to drive to school in this to get them.
Are we thinking that this needs to be a school early dismissal type situation? I hate the thought of the kids being in school during this time and having to drive to school in this to get them.
Schools are built 10x stronger than most brick homes. I’m in a brick home but I’d rather my kid be at school during a tornado if I had to choose.
Are we thinking that this needs to be a school early dismissal type situation? I hate the thought of the kids being in school during this time and having to drive to school in this to get them.
Schools are built 10x stronger than most brick homes. I’m in a brick home but I’d rather my kid be at school during a tornado if I had to choose.
Its more about the commute from school as to why you'd let out early.
Are we thinking that this needs to be a school early dismissal type situation? I hate the thought of the kids being in school during this time and having to drive to school in this to get them.
Schools are built 10x stronger than most brick homes. I’m in a brick home but I’d rather my kid be at school during a tornado if I had to choose.
I think it's just that I would want them home with me if I know the weather is going to be severe.
Post by mobileweatherwatcher on Mar 20, 2022 20:54:10 GMT -6
I don't know how to read them or how reliable they are, but the point sounding models on Pivotal Weather are giving a "PDS TOR" as a potential hazard over here in the Mobile area. That's obviously not ideal.
I seem to be in the "bullseye" on this. Columbia, ms has been hit a few times by tornados in the last 10 years, so this doesn't surprise me. I have my family prepared ready to jet out of harms way.
My mom was raised in Columbia, so we have a ton of family and friends still there. Very concerned.
Last Edit: Mar 21, 2022 0:05:18 GMT -6 by VERticalnoGO
SKYSUMMIT: I'm hoping we're shoveling snow for Christmas
Nov 16, 2022 14:58:12 GMT -6
stormydds: Thanks for your reply... as usual
Nov 5, 2022 11:37:29 GMT -6
Zack Fradella: Yea, Lezak had a paper peer reviewed and published a year or so ago.
Nov 5, 2022 9:03:24 GMT -6
stormydds: Thanks for your response. I felt that is the case. that's too bad. Has there been any peer reviewed papers on the LRC hypothesis?
Nov 4, 2022 14:01:51 GMT -6
Zack Fradella: Not sure, the LRC is something that takes a lot of work to follow and keep up with. It's not as easy as looking at the parameters and making a forecast. This deters many from even giving it a chance. Also, there is some doubt from the weather world.
Nov 4, 2022 3:38:49 GMT -6
stormydds: Zack, a friend had a meeting in Lafayette which Rob Perillo spoke.He asked him why the LRC is not used to forecast hurricanes by NOAA.His answer was that Lezak won't share the info.I saw the podcast you and David made with Gary.He seemed open.What gives?
Nov 3, 2022 14:39:19 GMT -6
SKYSUMMIT: Man I really hope that rain moves quickly on Saturday. I'm so pumped for 6 hours of awesome college football!
Nov 3, 2022 7:15:01 GMT -6
PinkFreud - Nola FQ: Been unblocked. Dylan says that the station took major damage, so no idea when they'll even be able to stream again, or be on the air. Hopefully, they will at least let their employees deal with their own property issues!
Oct 2, 2022 18:17:35 GMT -6
gullywasher: Seriously, must we deal with Bruce Katz at noon, 4, 5 AND 9. ?
Sept 30, 2022 20:03:25 GMT -6
PinkFreud - Nola FQ: According to another met on twitter, the kitten was rescued by a producer who's adopting it. Of course that hasn't stopped the angry mob, with torches and pitchforks, who are insisting that it's a lie.
Sept 29, 2022 17:48:05 GMT -6
nolachic: Pink - he's probably blocking people he doesn't personally know to keep his cell charged and to get his head straight, and I'm sure he is beyond exhausted.
Sept 29, 2022 9:23:35 GMT -6
SKYSUMMIT: I sent him a message yesterday as well, but he hasn't seen it.
Sept 29, 2022 5:46:06 GMT -6
PinkFreud - Nola FQ: Oh hell, I meant for that to be a message!
Sept 28, 2022 19:38:19 GMT -6
PinkFreud - Nola FQ: Dylan is taking a beating on Twitter. I just tried to send him a message of support, since we've been following each other for years, and HE BLOCKED ME!!!!!! Somebody who can get to him needs to do so, pronto!!! I'm very worried about him.
Sept 28, 2022 19:37:27 GMT -6
HarahanTim - Now in Covington!: Hmmm, I will say. that somewhere back there, we have stored the "Tums" icon, for those that give a prediction based on their "gut"!
Sept 24, 2022 11:38:12 GMT -6
T-man: Gully, no one here cares about your tender friggin' heart, ya big snoflake!!! :horns: :horns: :horns: :tongue:
Sept 24, 2022 10:24:18 GMT -6
