TROPICAL STORM CINDY - Discussion Thread

The odds of development are now 50/60%.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL93):
A tropical wave located several hundred miles southwest of
the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
appear favorable for further development of this system, and a
tropical depression could form in a couple of days while the system
moves westward at 10 to 15 mph across the eastern and central
tropical Atlantic.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

Invest 93L is now 70/80%.


Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL93):
Showers and thunderstorms are gradually showing signs of
organization in association with a tropical wave located several
hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for further development of this system,
and a tropical depression will likely form during the next couple
of days while the system moves westward at 10 to 15 mph across the
eastern and central tropical Atlantic.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Wed Jun 21 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Bret, located several hundred miles east of the Windward
Islands.

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL93):
Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization in
association with the area of low pressure located about midway
between the west coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles, and
environmental conditions appear conducive for further development.
Therefore, a tropical depression will likely form during the next
day or so while the system moves westward to west-northwestward at
10 to 15 mph across the central tropical Atlantic through the early
part of the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Reinhart

000

WTNT34 KNHC 230239

TCPAT4



BULLETIN

Tropical Storm Cindy Advisory Number 4

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042023

1100 PM AST Thu Jun 22 2023



...TROPICAL STORM CINDY FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC...





SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION

-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...11.7N 45.2W

ABOUT 1110 MI...1785 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cindy was

located near latitude 11.7 North, longitude 45.2 West. Cindy is

moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this

general motion is expected to continue over the next few days. On

the forecast track, the system is expected to remain well northeast

of the northern Leeward Islands through early next week.



Satellite-derived wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds

have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some

strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days.



Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) to

the north of the center.



The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

None





NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.



$$

Forecaster Reinhart

Tropical Storm Cindy Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042023
1100 AM AST Sat Jun 24 2023

...CINDY STILL A 60-MPH TROPICAL STORM FOR NOW...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 53.3W
ABOUT 535 MI...860 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES