[H] HURRICANE HELENE - Discussion & Aftermath

SKYSUMMIT
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[H] HURRICANE HELENE - Discussion & Aftermath Sept 22, 2024 10:12:26 GMT -6 NavyMom: WBR Parish likes this

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Post by SKYSUMMIT on Sept 22, 2024 10:12:26 GMT -6

Ouch, that's just nasty. I'll get a zoomed in frame once it's updated on my end. I agree though, the FL panhandle mets should really start raising awareness. We're within 5 days of landfall.

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United Real Estate Partners - New Orleans / North Shore
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NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08
CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23

ndg GCWX Supporter Posts: 9,974	[H] HURRICANE HELENE - Discussion & Aftermath Sept 22, 2024 10:16:39 GMT -6 geo2 - Bush/Waldheim Metroplex likes this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by ndg on Sept 22, 2024 10:16:39 GMT -6 x.com/NDGMETCHEF/status/1837887775934136664

MobileWeatherWatcher Category 5 Posts: 3,041	[H] HURRICANE HELENE - Discussion & Aftermath Sept 22, 2024 10:18:08 GMT -6 via mobile Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by MobileWeatherWatcher on Sept 22, 2024 10:18:08 GMT -6 Oh my Lord

MobileWeatherWatcher Category 5 Posts: 3,041	[H] HURRICANE HELENE - Discussion & Aftermath Sept 22, 2024 10:22:13 GMT -6 via mobile Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by MobileWeatherWatcher on Sept 22, 2024 10:22:13 GMT -6 This run is horrible for Apalachicola up to Tallahassee

Nathan Category 1 Posts: 125	[H] HURRICANE HELENE - Discussion & Aftermath Sept 22, 2024 10:24:08 GMT -6 via mobile Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by Nathan on Sept 22, 2024 10:24:08 GMT -6 Praying for all in the path!

bstelly24-Denham Springs, LA Meteorology Student Posts: 966	[H] HURRICANE HELENE - Discussion & Aftermath Sept 22, 2024 10:27:14 GMT -6 via mobile Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by bstelly24-Denham Springs, LA on Sept 22, 2024 10:27:14 GMT -6 Low 930s is approaching strong Cat 4 territory.

Kory Moderator Posts: 1,621 Location: Metairie, LA Staff Member	[H] HURRICANE HELENE - Discussion & Aftermath Sept 22, 2024 10:27:32 GMT -6 via mobile Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by Kory on Sept 22, 2024 10:27:32 GMT -6 I think we can say that Florida residents from Destin eastward to Clearwater should definitely start making hurricane preparations.
	Located in Metairie, Louisiana.

Kory Moderator Posts: 1,621 Location: Metairie, LA Staff Member	[H] HURRICANE HELENE - Discussion & Aftermath Sept 22, 2024 10:30:34 GMT -6 via mobile Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by Kory on Sept 22, 2024 10:30:34 GMT -6 In the end…the GFS did not adjust nearly as much as the Euro. Big win for it. Canadian too.
	Located in Metairie, Louisiana.

cajungal Category 5 Posts: 6,383 Member is Online	[H] HURRICANE HELENE - Discussion & Aftermath Sept 22, 2024 10:32:30 GMT -6 via mobile Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by cajungal on Sept 22, 2024 10:32:30 GMT -6 😢 prayers for Florida
	60 miles southwest of New Orleans) Thibodaux, La

Kory
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[H] HURRICANE HELENE - Discussion & Aftermath Sept 22, 2024 10:34:32 GMT -6 via mobile

Quote

Post by Kory on Sept 22, 2024 10:34:32 GMT -6

Sept 22, 2024 10:16:39 GMT -6 ndg said:

x.com/NDGMETCHEF/status/1837887775934136664

Yep, the next 48 hours are critical on whether Florida gets smacked by a major hurricane or something much weaker. GFS has a hurricane entering the Gulf before it gets picked up by the trough and strong SW flow. Like Francine a storm with an organized core will not have issues like something weaker and more broad.

Located in Metairie, Louisiana.

nolasim
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[H] HURRICANE HELENE - Discussion & Aftermath Sept 22, 2024 10:35:10 GMT -6 fleurdelisa-Folsom, LA likes this

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Post by nolasim on Sept 22, 2024 10:35:10 GMT -6

Great words of wisdom from NWS morning disco:

LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 253 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

Now for the problem. We have no way of knowing a location or where
this system will move to, other than a general northward motion,
since we don`t know exactly where this thing wants to develop a
center. So, trying to decide which area along the gulf coast is
going to receive this would be absolute conjecture at this time.
Long story short, don`t feed the rumor mill and internet hype over
this system or any future systems because until any system starts to
form, there is no way anyone knows exactly where it will land. Even
once something has formed, it can be very difficult. One can easily
see how difficult telling the future of these things is by watching
successive runs of global models moving this feature wildly from
place to place with each run and these models have some of today`s
best science coded in them. The best things to do at the moment is
simply have a plan in place and stay current with the latest
forecast.

"Let's work the problem, people; don't make things worse by guessing!"

Gene Krantz, Flight Director, Apollo 13

SKYSUMMIT
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President | Director of Operations

Posts: 67,639

Location: Ponchatoula, LA

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[H] HURRICANE HELENE - Discussion & Aftermath Sept 22, 2024 10:50:15 GMT -6

Quote

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Sept 22, 2024 10:50:15 GMT -6

No doubt that run would knock the snot out of Florida's Forgotten Coast. So many people go to Florida for Destin or Orlando, but this right here is our favorite spot of all. My wife and I had our honeymoon in Sopchoppy. We spent a lot of time on this coast. But how often does the GFS nail a forecast 4 days out?

Last Edit: Sept 22, 2024 10:50:39 GMT -6 by SKYSUMMIT

Buying or Selling Real Estate?--->scottguidry.com
United Real Estate Partners - New Orleans / North Shore
Scott Guidry, Realtor, ABR, AHWD, AWREP, C2EX
Click HERE To Download My FREE MLS Touch App!
NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08
CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23

homeymandeville
Category 5

Posts: 1,517

[H] HURRICANE HELENE - Discussion & Aftermath Sept 22, 2024 10:50:56 GMT -6 via mobile

Quote

Post by homeymandeville on Sept 22, 2024 10:50:56 GMT -6

Sept 22, 2024 10:35:10 GMT -6 nolasim said:

Great words of wisdom from NWS morning disco:

LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 253 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

Now for the problem. We have no way of knowing a location or where
this system will move to, other than a general northward motion,
since we don`t know exactly where this thing wants to develop a
center. So, trying to decide which area along the gulf coast is
going to receive this would be absolute conjecture at this time.
Long story short, don`t feed the rumor mill and internet hype over
this system or any future systems because until any system starts to
form, there is no way anyone knows exactly where it will land. Even
once something has formed, it can be very difficult. One can easily
see how difficult telling the future of these things is by watching
successive runs of global models moving this feature wildly from
place to place with each run and these models have some of today`s
best science coded in them. The best things to do at the moment is
simply have a plan in place and stay current with the latest
forecast.

perfectly worded as we should all expect from the NWS folks.

Math Professor
GCWX Supporter

Posts: 136
Location: Panama City, FL

[H] HURRICANE HELENE - Discussion & Aftermath Sept 22, 2024 10:54:40 GMT -6 via mobile trethe likes this

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Post by Math Professor on Sept 22, 2024 10:54:40 GMT -6

Sept 22, 2024 10:04:16 GMT -6 Kory said:

Panama City Beach landfall as a strong hurricane.

Welp… as Trehe quoted Rumsfeld earlier on known and unknowns, I’ll quote someone with even greater wisdom; that Great Dane of Sage, Scooby. “Ruh roh!”

whitecap
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Posts: 598

[H] HURRICANE HELENE - Discussion & Aftermath Sept 22, 2024 11:01:17 GMT -6 via mobile lindaluling likes this

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Post by whitecap on Sept 22, 2024 11:01:17 GMT -6

Is it safe for Southeast Louisiana to breathe a sigh of relief with the models now directing everything it seems toward Florida? I’m having flashbacks of the Florida forecast for Katrina and then with each adjusted forecast was much more west than the previous one. Is there anything that would pull this system more northerly instead of north easterly?

[H] HURRICANE HELENE - Discussion & Aftermath

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Sept 22, 2024 10:12:26 GMT -6

Post by ndg on Sept 22, 2024 10:16:39 GMT -6

Post by MobileWeatherWatcher on Sept 22, 2024 10:18:08 GMT -6

Post by MobileWeatherWatcher on Sept 22, 2024 10:22:13 GMT -6

Post by Nathan on Sept 22, 2024 10:24:08 GMT -6

Post by bstelly24-Denham Springs, LA on Sept 22, 2024 10:27:14 GMT -6

Post by Kory on Sept 22, 2024 10:27:32 GMT -6

Post by Kory on Sept 22, 2024 10:30:34 GMT -6

Post by cajungal on Sept 22, 2024 10:32:30 GMT -6

Post by Kory on Sept 22, 2024 10:34:32 GMT -6

Post by nolasim on Sept 22, 2024 10:35:10 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Sept 22, 2024 10:50:15 GMT -6

Post by homeymandeville on Sept 22, 2024 10:50:56 GMT -6

Post by Math Professor on Sept 22, 2024 10:54:40 GMT -6

Post by whitecap on Sept 22, 2024 11:01:17 GMT -6

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