[H] HURRICANE HELENE - Discussion & Aftermath

Unofficially, probably so.

Officially, probably not technically.

I’m not taking my eye off of it yet. Still a bit too close for my liking

Still no invest.


Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico:

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located over the northwestern

Caribbean Sea and portions of Central America are associated with a

broad area of low pressure. Environmental conditions appear

favorable for development of this system, and a tropical depression

or tropical storm is likely to form during the next few days while

moving northward across the northwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of

Mexico. Regardless of development, this disturbance is expected to

produce heavy rains over portions of Central America during the next

several days. Interests in the northwestern Caribbean, Yucatan

Peninsula of Mexico, and western Cuba should closely monitor the

progress of this feature. Later this week, the system is forecast to

move generally northward across the Gulf of Mexico, and interests

along the northern and northeastern Gulf Coast should also monitor

the progress of this system.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.

* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

Smart - never turn your back on the Gulf, it sometimes likes to throw curves. Stay safe.

Can you educate me on what informs the NHC’s decision to make it an invest? Do they have a fix on a center of low pressure?

What specifically is needed for the NHC to officially designate this an invest is something perhaps one of the trained mets may be able to answer. They have plotted the location of the Low at 15.3N 83.2W. They now will begin to run the "Hurricane" models such as the HWRF, HMON, etc. Very near the Honduras/Nicaragua border.