[H] HURRICANE HELENE - Discussion & Aftermath

Zack Fradella Administrator Chairman \| Founder Posts: 8,547 Staff Member	[H] HURRICANE HELENE - Discussion & Aftermath Sept 23, 2024 11:45:50 GMT -6 via mobile SKYSUMMIT, lsukev4, and 12 more like this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by Zack Fradella on Sept 23, 2024 11:45:50 GMT -6 I don’t see how you issue a forecast and not call for a major. In a world where you would rather over warn to save lives, this is the time to over warn.
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SKYSUMMIT
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[H] HURRICANE HELENE - Discussion & Aftermath Sept 23, 2024 11:47:45 GMT -6 trethe, geo2 - Bush/Waldheim Metroplex, and 4 more like this

Quote

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Sept 23, 2024 11:47:45 GMT -6

Sept 23, 2024 11:45:50 GMT -6 Zack Fradella said:

I don’t see how you issue a forecast and not call for a major. In a world where you would rather over warn to save lives, this is the time to over warn.

1 Million Percent Agree

Tomorrow is Tuesday and there will be a Major Hurricane making landfall as early as Thursday. Unbelievable.

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trethe
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[H] HURRICANE HELENE - Discussion & Aftermath Sept 23, 2024 11:50:16 GMT -6 lisamath likes this

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Post by trethe on Sept 23, 2024 11:50:16 GMT -6

Sept 23, 2024 11:47:45 GMT -6 SKYSUMMIT said:

Sept 23, 2024 11:45:50 GMT -6 Zack Fradella said:

I don’t see how you issue a forecast and not call for a major. In a world where you would rather over warn to save lives, this is the time to over warn.

1 Million Percent Agree

Tomorrow is Tuesday and there will be a Major Hurricane making landfall as early as Thursday. Unbelievable.

I believe Wilma set the lowest mb record at 882mb.

bigdad
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[H] HURRICANE HELENE - Discussion & Aftermath Sept 23, 2024 11:52:38 GMT -6 NavyMom: WBR Parish, homeymandeville, and 1 more like this

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Post by bigdad on Sept 23, 2024 11:52:38 GMT -6

Mets can't win. If they wait for better data, people will say weren't warned soon enough. If they over-warn and people prep for that and the storm goes elsewhere, they won't prep next time.

SKYSUMMIT
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[H] HURRICANE HELENE - Discussion & Aftermath Sept 23, 2024 11:53:59 GMT -6

Quote

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Sept 23, 2024 11:53:59 GMT -6

Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Intermediate Advisory Number 1A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
200 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING THE
DISTURBANCE...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND HURRICANE WATCHES IN EFFECT FOR
PORTIONS OF MEXICO AND CUBA...

SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.9N 81.9W
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM SSW OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 340 MI...545 KM SE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

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homeymandeville
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[H] HURRICANE HELENE - Discussion & Aftermath Sept 23, 2024 12:00:23 GMT -6 via mobile

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Post by homeymandeville on Sept 23, 2024 12:00:23 GMT -6

Sept 23, 2024 11:52:38 GMT -6 bigdad said:

Mets can't win. If they wait for better data, people will say weren't warned soon enough. If they over-warn and people prep for that and the storm goes elsewhere, they won't prep next time.

Well we can blame social media mostly because sometimes there can be too much information and it becomes information ovetload for those that are essentially reactionary then those that actively follow these events. And to be fair we are all guilty of being highly involved in things we like but also take a laid back approach to the types of things we don’t enjoy on a regular basis. Those of us that engage in weather are well aware of the dangers associated with warnings of hurricane dangers. Others that do not engage like us in this forum sit back and just listen to the TV news and or radio news updates. To each their own as it is said.

trethe GCWX Supporter Posts: 1,426	[H] HURRICANE HELENE - Discussion & Aftermath Sept 23, 2024 12:02:34 GMT -6 whitecap, chopin - River Ridge, and 2 more like this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by trethe on Sept 23, 2024 12:02:34 GMT -6 My take on this is that the models are screaming with red lights and sirens at this point.

MobileWeatherWatcher
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[H] HURRICANE HELENE - Discussion & Aftermath Sept 23, 2024 12:09:15 GMT -6 via mobile

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Post by MobileWeatherWatcher on Sept 23, 2024 12:09:15 GMT -6

Sept 23, 2024 11:20:40 GMT -6 trethe said:

HAFS-B has the pressure down to 888mb while it is located at about 25.5n and 85.5 in the Gulf of Mexico.

Edit: This is at hour 72. Thursday at 7:00am.

What? This has to be a bit overdone on the model right? Right?

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[H] HURRICANE HELENE - Discussion & Aftermath Sept 23, 2024 12:12:53 GMT -6 burasla, jimmycarl, and 3 more like this

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Post by Will - Ascension Parish on Sept 23, 2024 12:12:53 GMT -6

Well first the Korean model showed that and we thought it was crazy. Now hurricane models are showing the same thing.

I think if there was ever a time for meteorologists to sound the alarm and start scaring the shit out of people, this is it. Be frank with the public -- "look guys, normally I don't mention what models are showing but we are seeing something almost unprecedented with models and that is that they're indicating the possibility of a historically intense hurricane. it doesn't mean that's what going to happen but it's reasonable to say that this could be the real deal. pay attention and get out when evacuations are issued".

I don't see the harm in that. Take the risk of egg on your face in case it doesn't strengthen to those limits but holy moly, the fact that multiple models are indicating sub 900mb is insane and I think it's worth mentioning.

SKYSUMMIT Administrator President \| Director of Operations Posts: 67,639 Location: Ponchatoula, LA Staff Member	[H] HURRICANE HELENE - Discussion & Aftermath Sept 23, 2024 12:13:25 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by SKYSUMMIT on Sept 23, 2024 12:13:25 GMT -6 HAFS-B satellite presentation at 888mb with a very tight eye.
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homeymandeville
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[H] HURRICANE HELENE - Discussion & Aftermath Sept 23, 2024 12:14:42 GMT -6 via mobile NavyMom: WBR Parish likes this

Quote

Post by homeymandeville on Sept 23, 2024 12:14:42 GMT -6

APPEARS to be moving as forecast west. We can assume a WNW track to begin soon. Still facing quite a bit of shear looking at latest visible satellite imagery.

MY OPINION HERE.

Kory
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[H] HURRICANE HELENE - Discussion & Aftermath Sept 23, 2024 12:18:32 GMT -6

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Post by Kory on Sept 23, 2024 12:18:32 GMT -6

Hard to not get Idalia flashbacks to last year. Entered the Gulf as a Cat 1 and hurricane models were going crazy (some showing 910s and 920s) and it peaked as a Cat 4 in the 940s and unwound really fast right before landfall.

Located in Metairie, Louisiana.

homeymandeville
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[H] HURRICANE HELENE - Discussion & Aftermath Sept 23, 2024 12:18:43 GMT -6 via mobile

Quote

Post by homeymandeville on Sept 23, 2024 12:18:43 GMT -6

Sept 23, 2024 12:13:25 GMT -6 SKYSUMMIT said:

HAFS-B satellite presentation at 888mb with a very tight eye.

Notice IF it does get this deep and size the outer fringes of feeder bands show up as far west as SELA! That would simply be unreal. And to think how far out tropical force winds would extend with a hurricane of this size! Coastal flooding for SELA needs to be addressed if it truly does become this intense.

Let’s not forget outside of the immediate impact area what a hurricane of this magnitude brings.

Last Edit: Sept 23, 2024 12:20:20 GMT -6 by homeymandeville

finnshuman Tropical Storm Posts: 65	[H] HURRICANE HELENE - Discussion & Aftermath Sept 23, 2024 12:23:10 GMT -6 via mobile Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by finnshuman on Sept 23, 2024 12:23:10 GMT -6 Sept 23, 2024 12:13:25 GMT -6 SKYSUMMIT said: HAFS-B satellite presentation at 888mb with a very tight eye. I think I’m somewhere under there. Guess I better get supplies after work today.

Kory
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[H] HURRICANE HELENE - Discussion & Aftermath Sept 23, 2024 12:25:22 GMT -6 KatG likes this

Quote

Post by Kory on Sept 23, 2024 12:25:22 GMT -6

Sept 23, 2024 12:18:43 GMT -6 homeymandeville said:

Sept 23, 2024 12:13:25 GMT -6 SKYSUMMIT said:

HAFS-B satellite presentation at 888mb with a very tight eye.

Notice IF it does get this deep and size the outer fringes of feeder bands show up as far west as SELA! That would simply be unreal. And to think how far out tropical force winds would extend with a hurricane of this size! Coastal flooding for SELA needs to be addressed if it truly does become this intense.

Let’s not forget outside of the immediate impact area what a hurricane of this magnitude brings.

I doubt SELA has anything to worry about even in a HAFS A/B doomsday scenario shown here. Light northerly winds and some coastal showers. Nothing unusual.

Located in Metairie, Louisiana.

[H] HURRICANE HELENE - Discussion & Aftermath

Post by Zack Fradella on Sept 23, 2024 11:45:50 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Sept 23, 2024 11:47:45 GMT -6

Post by trethe on Sept 23, 2024 11:50:16 GMT -6

Post by bigdad on Sept 23, 2024 11:52:38 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Sept 23, 2024 11:53:59 GMT -6

Post by homeymandeville on Sept 23, 2024 12:00:23 GMT -6

Post by trethe on Sept 23, 2024 12:02:34 GMT -6

Post by MobileWeatherWatcher on Sept 23, 2024 12:09:15 GMT -6

Post by Will - Ascension Parish on Sept 23, 2024 12:12:53 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Sept 23, 2024 12:13:25 GMT -6

Post by homeymandeville on Sept 23, 2024 12:14:42 GMT -6

Post by Kory on Sept 23, 2024 12:18:32 GMT -6

Post by homeymandeville on Sept 23, 2024 12:18:43 GMT -6

Post by finnshuman on Sept 23, 2024 12:23:10 GMT -6

Post by Kory on Sept 23, 2024 12:25:22 GMT -6

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