[H] HURRICANE HELENE - Discussion & Aftermath

No coastal flooding?

Levi Cowan had a great explanation for why the HAFS models are doing what they're doing which is they're assuming the system is perfectly stacked vertically upon initialization which it is not. Regardless, it is indicating a pristine environment for strengthening once in the Gulf. I said yesterday, to get a Michael type scenario, I would think it would need to be a Cat 2 upon entry to the Gulf. Idalia was a Cat 1...which seems it would be on par with...but Idalia was a compact system, this doesn't appear to be that in current modeling. A Category 3/4 seems reasonable looking at modeling at the moment...not that 880mb nonsense. Either way, very impactful storm coming for someone on the Florida Gulf Coast and inland wherever it landfalls.

So there will be no increased southeasterly flow or increased easterly flow into the marshes of SELA with a massive sized developing hurricane all the way to landfall?

Our winds switch out of the NE starting Wednesday and then more N to NW Thursday and into Friday.  Look, I wouldn't go boating out there, but I doubt we have any major inundation along the coastline likely to even trigger a coastal flood warning.  QPF is even coming down given the subsidence on the NW side of the storm. 

18z Plots are still in good agreement

It's not too often we see this plot top the Cat 5 line.

I don't think it'll impact the forecast path much. I saw it diving south of due west a little big ago, but I'm thinking it's trying to get pulled under the deeper convection and will eventually "loop" around to do so.