[H] HURRICANE HELENE - Discussion & Aftermath

Kory
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Location: Metairie, LA

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[H] HURRICANE HELENE - Discussion & Aftermath Sept 26, 2024 15:45:28 GMT -6 via mobile NavyMom: WBR Parish and maxgoldman like this

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Post by Kory on Sept 26, 2024 15:45:28 GMT -6

Sept 26, 2024 15:33:44 GMT -6 NavyMom: WBR Parish said:

I don’t think the eyewall is open. At least recon didn’t note that. I think there just radar attenuation from going through all of that heavy convection and being so far away. It was noticed as closed but ragged last vortex message.

Located in Metairie, Louisiana.

Math Professor GCWX Supporter Posts: 136 Location: Panama City, FL	[H] HURRICANE HELENE - Discussion & Aftermath Sept 26, 2024 15:49:10 GMT -6 via mobile Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by Math Professor on Sept 26, 2024 15:49:10 GMT -6 When is it suppose to make the turn north? At the rate it’s going, it looks like it’s heading for the right side of the big bend instead of the middle of it.

nolasim
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[H] HURRICANE HELENE - Discussion & Aftermath Sept 26, 2024 15:53:03 GMT -6 via mobile Math Professor likes this

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Post by nolasim on Sept 26, 2024 15:53:03 GMT -6

Sept 26, 2024 15:49:10 GMT -6 Math Professor said:

When is it suppose to make the turn north? At the rate it’s going, it looks like it’s heading for the right side of the big bend instead of the middle of it.

I think that will be the case; the models have been showing that for well over the past 24 hours. It could be the NHC wanted to see some model consistency so they would have more data to confirm their conclusion. There wasn’t much time for this storm; it may have been better to over-conclude, but that’s Monday morning quarterbacking on my part.

"Let's work the problem, people; don't make things worse by guessing!"

Gene Krantz, Flight Director, Apollo 13

Mike Naso Official Contributor Posts: 1,294	[H] HURRICANE HELENE - Discussion & Aftermath Sept 26, 2024 15:53:03 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by Mike Naso on Sept 26, 2024 15:53:03 GMT -6

SKYSUMMIT Administrator President \| Director of Operations Posts: 67,639 Location: Ponchatoula, LA Staff Member	[H] HURRICANE HELENE - Discussion & Aftermath Sept 26, 2024 15:55:34 GMT -6 NavyMom: WBR Parish likes this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by SKYSUMMIT on Sept 26, 2024 15:55:34 GMT -6 They need to prepare for a Category 4 Hurricane with gusts to Category 5 intensity. She's exploding right now.
	Buying or Selling Real Estate?--->scottguidry.com United Real Estate Partners - New Orleans / North Shore Scott Guidry, Realtor, ABR, AHWD, AWREP, C2EX Click HERE To Download My FREE MLS Touch App! NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08 CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23

Math Professor
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[H] HURRICANE HELENE - Discussion & Aftermath Sept 26, 2024 15:57:08 GMT -6 via mobile nolasim and jimmycarl like this

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Post by Math Professor on Sept 26, 2024 15:57:08 GMT -6

Sept 26, 2024 15:53:03 GMT -6 nolasim said:

Sept 26, 2024 15:49:10 GMT -6 Math Professor said:

When is it suppose to make the turn north? At the rate it’s going, it looks like it’s heading for the right side of the big bend instead of the middle of it.

I think that will be the case; the models have been showing that for well over the past 24 hours. It could be the NHC wanted to see some model consistency so they would have more data to confirm their conclusion. There wasn’t much time for this storm; it may have been better to over-conclude, but that’s Monday morning quarterbacking on my part.

That’s really cutting down on the winds here. Nothing but just steady rain.

MobileWeatherWatcher Category 5 Posts: 3,041	[H] HURRICANE HELENE - Discussion & Aftermath Sept 26, 2024 15:57:14 GMT -6 via mobile Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by MobileWeatherWatcher on Sept 26, 2024 15:57:14 GMT -6 Sept 26, 2024 15:55:34 GMT -6 SKYSUMMIT said: They need to prepare for a Category 4 Hurricane with gusts to Category 5 intensity. She's exploding right now. Dear Lord

SKYSUMMIT Administrator President \| Director of Operations Posts: 67,639 Location: Ponchatoula, LA Staff Member	[H] HURRICANE HELENE - Discussion & Aftermath Sept 26, 2024 15:59:33 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by SKYSUMMIT on Sept 26, 2024 15:59:33 GMT -6 Almost 90 miles away from the center, winds are blowing to near 70mph
	Buying or Selling Real Estate?--->scottguidry.com United Real Estate Partners - New Orleans / North Shore Scott Guidry, Realtor, ABR, AHWD, AWREP, C2EX Click HERE To Download My FREE MLS Touch App! NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08 CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23

jimmycarl Category 5 Posts: 1,514 Location: West Side Of The MS Coast	[H] HURRICANE HELENE - Discussion & Aftermath Sept 26, 2024 15:59:44 GMT -6 blackandgoldgirl and Math Professor like this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by jimmycarl on Sept 26, 2024 15:59:44 GMT -6 I just pray she doesn't bomb out with the remaining hrs she has before landfall. History has proven lots can happen in 5-6 hrs with a strengthening hurricane.

MobileWeatherWatcher Category 5 Posts: 3,041	[H] HURRICANE HELENE - Discussion & Aftermath Sept 26, 2024 16:01:56 GMT -6 via mobile Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by MobileWeatherWatcher on Sept 26, 2024 16:01:56 GMT -6 Extrapolated pressure now 947???

bstelly24-Denham Springs, LA Meteorology Student Posts: 966	[H] HURRICANE HELENE - Discussion & Aftermath Sept 26, 2024 16:02:28 GMT -6 via mobile Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by bstelly24-Denham Springs, LA on Sept 26, 2024 16:02:28 GMT -6 Sept 26, 2024 16:01:56 GMT -6 MobileWeatherWatcher said: Extrapolated pressure now 947??? With a 34 knot wind,so the pressure should be closer to 945 or 946.

nolasim Moderator Posts: 6,930 Location: Algiers-West Bank Staff Member	[H] HURRICANE HELENE - Discussion & Aftermath Sept 26, 2024 16:03:03 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by nolasim on Sept 26, 2024 16:03:03 GMT -6 Curious.........NHC just lowered the intensity to 120 mph. Odd.
	"Let's work the problem, people; don't make things worse by guessing!" Gene Krantz, Flight Director, Apollo 13

roz
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[H] HURRICANE HELENE - Discussion & Aftermath Sept 26, 2024 16:04:07 GMT -6

Quote

Post by roz on Sept 26, 2024 16:04:07 GMT -6

Sept 26, 2024 16:01:56 GMT -6 MobileWeatherWatcher said:

Extrapolated pressure now 947???

NOAA2 Mission #17 into HELENE
Type: Low-level Reconnaissance | Status: In Storm

As of 21:52 UTC Sep 26, 2024:
Aircraft Position: 27.90°N 84.40°W
Bearing: 90° at 318 kt
Altitude: 2052 gpm
Peak 10-second Wind: 34 kt at 204°
Extrapolated Sea-level Pressure: 946.7 mb

Not official yet, but Jeff Piotrowski, live on you tube talking about it.

SKYSUMMIT
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[H] HURRICANE HELENE - Discussion & Aftermath Sept 26, 2024 16:04:25 GMT -6

Quote

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Sept 26, 2024 16:04:25 GMT -6

What in the heck?

Hurricane Helene Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
600 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

...HELENE CONTINUES HEADING FOR THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SPREADING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST
COAST OF FLORIDA...

A slightly elevated Weatherflow station at the Skyway Fishing Pier
near the entrance to Tampa Bay recently measured a sustained wind
of 50 mph (80 km/h) and a gust to 69 mph (111 km/h).

SUMMARY OF 600 PM EDT...2200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.0N 84.5W
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM W OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM SW OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Bucci

Buying or Selling Real Estate?--->scottguidry.com
United Real Estate Partners - New Orleans / North Shore
Scott Guidry, Realtor, ABR, AHWD, AWREP, C2EX
Click HERE To Download My FREE MLS Touch App!
NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08
CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23

Math Professor GCWX Supporter Posts: 136 Location: Panama City, FL	[H] HURRICANE HELENE - Discussion & Aftermath Sept 26, 2024 16:04:28 GMT -6 via mobile Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by Math Professor on Sept 26, 2024 16:04:28 GMT -6 Sept 26, 2024 16:03:03 GMT -6 nolasim said: Curious.........NHC just lowered the intensity to 120 mph. Odd. I saw that. With a pressure of 950

[H] HURRICANE HELENE - Discussion & Aftermath

Post by Kory on Sept 26, 2024 15:45:28 GMT -6

Post by Math Professor on Sept 26, 2024 15:49:10 GMT -6

Post by nolasim on Sept 26, 2024 15:53:03 GMT -6

Post by Mike Naso on Sept 26, 2024 15:53:03 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Sept 26, 2024 15:55:34 GMT -6

Post by Math Professor on Sept 26, 2024 15:57:08 GMT -6

Post by MobileWeatherWatcher on Sept 26, 2024 15:57:14 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Sept 26, 2024 15:59:33 GMT -6

Post by jimmycarl on Sept 26, 2024 15:59:44 GMT -6

Post by MobileWeatherWatcher on Sept 26, 2024 16:01:56 GMT -6

Post by bstelly24-Denham Springs, LA on Sept 26, 2024 16:02:28 GMT -6

Post by nolasim on Sept 26, 2024 16:03:03 GMT -6

Post by roz on Sept 26, 2024 16:04:07 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Sept 26, 2024 16:04:25 GMT -6

Post by Math Professor on Sept 26, 2024 16:04:28 GMT -6

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