[H] HURRICANE HELENE - Discussion & Aftermath

jimmycarl Category 5 Posts: 1,514 Location: West Side Of The MS Coast	[H] HURRICANE HELENE - Discussion & Aftermath Sept 26, 2024 16:05:51 GMT -6 NavyMom: WBR Parish likes this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by jimmycarl on Sept 26, 2024 16:05:51 GMT -6 She looks pretty healthy to my untrained eye. i.imgur.com/jwNqKBz.gif

Zack Fradella Administrator Chairman \| Founder Posts: 8,546 Staff Member	[H] HURRICANE HELENE - Discussion & Aftermath Sept 26, 2024 16:06:37 GMT -6 via mobile Mike Naso, nolasim, and 3 more like this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by Zack Fradella on Sept 26, 2024 16:06:37 GMT -6 Why the heck did the NHC do that? Recon supports a Cat 4.
	Zack Fradella FOX 8 Meteorologist StormCast - Gulf Coast Weather Founder For Regular Weather Updates Like Me On Facebook Meteorologist Zack Fradella Follow me on Twitter & Instagram @zackfradellawx

Mike Naso Official Contributor Posts: 1,294	[H] HURRICANE HELENE - Discussion & Aftermath Sept 26, 2024 16:06:57 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by Mike Naso on Sept 26, 2024 16:06:57 GMT -6 Wow this thing looks like a solid Cat 4 hurricane. Amazing!

roz
GCWX Supporter

Posts: 1,192

[H] HURRICANE HELENE - Discussion & Aftermath Sept 26, 2024 16:07:24 GMT -6

Quote

Post by roz on Sept 26, 2024 16:07:24 GMT -6

Sept 26, 2024 16:03:03 GMT -6 nolasim said:

Curious.........NHC just lowered the intensity to 120 mph. Odd.

They corrected it:

000
WTNT64 KNHC 262205 CCA
TCUAT4

Hurricane Helene Tropical Cyclone Update...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
600 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

Corrected for the maximum winds and forward motion

...HELENE CONTINUES HEADING FOR THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SPREADING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST
COAST OF FLORIDA...

A slightly elevated Weatherflow station at the Skyway Fishing Pier
near the entrance to Tampa Bay recently measured a sustained wind
of 50 mph (80 km/h) and a gust to 69 mph (111 km/h).

SUMMARY OF 600 PM EDT...2200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.0N 84.5W
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM W OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM SW OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Bucci

Mike Naso Official Contributor Posts: 1,294	[H] HURRICANE HELENE - Discussion & Aftermath Sept 26, 2024 16:07:33 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by Mike Naso on Sept 26, 2024 16:07:33 GMT -6 Sept 26, 2024 16:06:37 GMT -6 Zack Fradella said: Why the heck did the NHC do that? Recon supports a Cat 4. Zack I wonder if it was a copy and paste type from the 4pm E position update.

Zack Fradella Administrator Chairman \| Founder Posts: 8,546 Staff Member	[H] HURRICANE HELENE - Discussion & Aftermath Sept 26, 2024 16:08:44 GMT -6 via mobile Mike Naso, nolasim, and 1 more like this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by Zack Fradella on Sept 26, 2024 16:08:44 GMT -6 Yea, they messed up with a copy and paste. Recon is at 700MB now so there is a greater reduction from the 136kt wind they just found.
	Zack Fradella FOX 8 Meteorologist StormCast - Gulf Coast Weather Founder For Regular Weather Updates Like Me On Facebook Meteorologist Zack Fradella Follow me on Twitter & Instagram @zackfradellawx

Math Professor GCWX Supporter Posts: 136 Location: Panama City, FL	[H] HURRICANE HELENE - Discussion & Aftermath Sept 26, 2024 16:09:13 GMT -6 via mobile Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by Math Professor on Sept 26, 2024 16:09:13 GMT -6 The people on Fox Weather were confused as well. He said that the eye test shows that this storm is the healthiest it has ever been.

nolasim
Moderator

Posts: 6,930
Location: Algiers-West Bank

Staff Member

[H] HURRICANE HELENE - Discussion & Aftermath Sept 26, 2024 16:10:41 GMT -6 roz likes this

Quote

Post by nolasim on Sept 26, 2024 16:10:41 GMT -6

Sept 26, 2024 16:07:24 GMT -6 roz said:

Sept 26, 2024 16:03:03 GMT -6 nolasim said:

Curious.........NHC just lowered the intensity to 120 mph. Odd.

They corrected it:

000
WTNT64 KNHC 262205 CCA
TCUAT4

Hurricane Helene Tropical Cyclone Update...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
600 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

Corrected for the maximum winds and forward motion

...HELENE CONTINUES HEADING FOR THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SPREADING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST
COAST OF FLORIDA...

A slightly elevated Weatherflow station at the Skyway Fishing Pier
near the entrance to Tampa Bay recently measured a sustained wind
of 50 mph (80 km/h) and a gust to 69 mph (111 km/h).

SUMMARY OF 600 PM EDT...2200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.0N 84.5W
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM W OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM SW OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Bucci

Thank you, Roz. Hell of a time for a copy-and-paste error, but blessed are the merciful.

I'm still a little surprised it remains at 125 mph, not higher.

"Let's work the problem, people; don't make things worse by guessing!"

Gene Krantz, Flight Director, Apollo 13

nolasim Moderator Posts: 6,930 Location: Algiers-West Bank Staff Member	[H] HURRICANE HELENE - Discussion & Aftermath Sept 26, 2024 16:13:10 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by nolasim on Sept 26, 2024 16:13:10 GMT -6 Tornado Warning officially in Port Charlotte per the Tampa ABC News affiliate, far east of the center. Yet another of the many ramifications of this storm.
	"Let's work the problem, people; don't make things worse by guessing!" Gene Krantz, Flight Director, Apollo 13

roz
GCWX Supporter

Posts: 1,192

[H] HURRICANE HELENE - Discussion & Aftermath Sept 26, 2024 16:20:18 GMT -6

Quote

Post by roz on Sept 26, 2024 16:20:18 GMT -6

684
WTNT64 KNHC 262218
TCUAT4

Hurricane Helene Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
620 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

...HELENE NOW AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...

A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft currently investigating Helene
recently found that the maximum sustained winds have increased to
130 mph (215 km/h). The minimum central pressure has also decreased
to 947 mb (27.96 inches) based on dropsonde data.

SUMMARY OF 620 PM EDT...2220 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.0N 84.5W
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM W OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM S OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...27.96 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Pasch

trethe
GCWX Supporter

Posts: 1,425

[H] HURRICANE HELENE - Discussion & Aftermath Sept 26, 2024 16:20:28 GMT -6 greeneyedgirl, shonsu - Napoleonville, and 3 more like this

Quote

Post by trethe on Sept 26, 2024 16:20:28 GMT -6

Her rapid intensification should be a surprise to no one. The hurricane models were all showing extremely low pressures. They may never reach some of the more extreme ones they were indicating, however, just as Zack always indicates when all the models start showing development that it is a signal. Well, they were signaling with "lights and sirens" as I indicated the other day. Yet, some will say this was a surprise.

Last Edit: Sept 26, 2024 16:20:58 GMT -6 by trethe

nolachic GCWX Supporter Posts: 1,252	[H] HURRICANE HELENE - Discussion & Aftermath Sept 26, 2024 16:22:47 GMT -6 NavyMom: WBR Parish likes this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by nolachic on Sept 26, 2024 16:22:47 GMT -6 Not trying to be an alarmist, but is there the possibility of this thing ramping up to a 5 before landfall?
	Thou shall not utter her name

Kory
Moderator

Posts: 1,614

Location: Metairie, LA

Staff Member

[H] HURRICANE HELENE - Discussion & Aftermath Sept 26, 2024 16:24:07 GMT -6 via mobile Nola Mike likes this

Quote

Post by Kory on Sept 26, 2024 16:24:07 GMT -6

Sept 26, 2024 16:22:47 GMT -6 nolachic said:

Not trying to be an alarmist, but is there the possibility of this thing ramping up to a 5 before landfall?

30 mph increase in 5-6 hours? Highly highly unlikely. But will still continue intensification to landfall.

Located in Metairie, Louisiana.

nolachic
GCWX Supporter

Posts: 1,252

[H] HURRICANE HELENE - Discussion & Aftermath Sept 26, 2024 16:27:21 GMT -6 NavyMom: WBR Parish likes this

Quote

Post by nolachic on Sept 26, 2024 16:27:21 GMT -6

Sept 26, 2024 16:06:57 GMT -6 Mike Naso said:

Wow this thing looks like a solid Cat 4 hurricane. Amazing!

It takes my breath away. This one will be, for everyone in her path, the "before Helene, and after Helene". Praying for everyone in her path.

Thou shall not utter her name

Kory
Moderator

Posts: 1,614

Location: Metairie, LA

Staff Member

[H] HURRICANE HELENE - Discussion & Aftermath Sept 26, 2024 16:29:06 GMT -6 via mobile NavyMom: WBR Parish likes this

Quote

Post by Kory on Sept 26, 2024 16:29:06 GMT -6

Sept 26, 2024 16:20:28 GMT -6 trethe said:

Her rapid intensification should be a surprise to no one. The hurricane models were all showing extremely low pressures. They may never reach some of the more extreme ones they were indicating, however, just as Zack always indicates when all the models start showing development that it is a signal. Well, they were signaling with "lights and sirens" as I indicated the other day. Yet, some will say this was a surprise.

This is about what SHIPS showed. Low to mid grade cat 4 at peak.

Located in Metairie, Louisiana.

[H] HURRICANE HELENE - Discussion & Aftermath

Post by jimmycarl on Sept 26, 2024 16:05:51 GMT -6

Post by Zack Fradella on Sept 26, 2024 16:06:37 GMT -6

Post by Mike Naso on Sept 26, 2024 16:06:57 GMT -6

Post by roz on Sept 26, 2024 16:07:24 GMT -6

Post by Mike Naso on Sept 26, 2024 16:07:33 GMT -6

Post by Zack Fradella on Sept 26, 2024 16:08:44 GMT -6

Post by Math Professor on Sept 26, 2024 16:09:13 GMT -6

Post by nolasim on Sept 26, 2024 16:10:41 GMT -6

Post by nolasim on Sept 26, 2024 16:13:10 GMT -6

Post by roz on Sept 26, 2024 16:20:18 GMT -6

Post by trethe on Sept 26, 2024 16:20:28 GMT -6

Post by nolachic on Sept 26, 2024 16:22:47 GMT -6

Post by Kory on Sept 26, 2024 16:24:07 GMT -6

Post by nolachic on Sept 26, 2024 16:27:21 GMT -6

Post by Kory on Sept 26, 2024 16:29:06 GMT -6

Shoutbox

Welcome All Members & Guests

Supporter Us & Donate for the 2024 Season

Hurricane Season 2024

Tropical Outlook

Regional Radars

Today's Convective Outlook

Today's Weather

Watches and Warnings