[H]HURRICANE MILTON - GULF OF MEXICO

Zack Fradella
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[H]HURRICANE MILTON - GULF OF MEXICO Sept 28, 2024 6:21:21 GMT -6 courtney0726, lisamath, and 3 more like this

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Post by Zack Fradella on Sept 28, 2024 6:21:21 GMT -6

It looks to be a pretty persistent SE to NW motion riding around a Florida ridge. Now in 7-8 days, that ridge will weaken quite a bit but there really isn't a big front coming to sweep it up. All about timing and exactly where the center forms.

You can tell storm fatigue is real. The lack of posts on this right now.

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cajungal Category 5 Posts: 6,377 Member is Online	[H]HURRICANE MILTON - GULF OF MEXICO Sept 28, 2024 6:32:14 GMT -6 via mobile bunkie68 - WBR Parish and Bent Oak like this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by cajungal on Sept 28, 2024 6:32:14 GMT -6 Yes we are tired. Just don’t want to worry yet til there is a need to. Poor Florida needs a break too for cleanup efforts. My heart goes out to them
	60 miles southwest of New Orleans) Thibodaux, La

whitecap
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[H]HURRICANE MILTON - GULF OF MEXICO Sept 28, 2024 6:41:39 GMT -6 via mobile

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Post by whitecap on Sept 28, 2024 6:41:39 GMT -6

Sept 28, 2024 6:21:21 GMT -6 Zack Fradella said:

It looks to be a pretty persistent SE to NW motion riding around a Florida ridge. Now in 7-8 days, that ridge will weaken quite a bit but there really isn't a big front coming to sweep it up. All about timing and exactly where the center forms.

You can tell storm fatigue is real. The lack of posts on this right now.

When would possible landfall be if this heads to SELA?

tcane Category 1 Posts: 211	[H]HURRICANE MILTON - GULF OF MEXICO Sept 28, 2024 6:42:20 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by tcane on Sept 28, 2024 6:42:20 GMT -6 Models Not calling for a monster at this time right? Looks like low end 1? I’m not the model guy so may be wrong.

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[H]HURRICANE MILTON - GULF OF MEXICO Sept 28, 2024 6:42:22 GMT -6 whitecap and lisamath like this

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Post by Zack Fradella on Sept 28, 2024 6:42:22 GMT -6

Sept 28, 2024 6:41:39 GMT -6 whitecap said:

Sept 28, 2024 6:21:21 GMT -6 Zack Fradella said:

It looks to be a pretty persistent SE to NW motion riding around a Florida ridge. Now in 7-8 days, that ridge will weaken quite a bit but there really isn't a big front coming to sweep it up. All about timing and exactly where the center forms.

You can tell storm fatigue is real. The lack of posts on this right now.

When would possible landfall be if this heads to SELA?

Fri-Sun

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Bent Oak
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[H]HURRICANE MILTON - GULF OF MEXICO Sept 28, 2024 6:48:23 GMT -6

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Post by Bent Oak on Sept 28, 2024 6:48:23 GMT -6

Just tired, and its small modeled shape makes it *feel* more trivial -- not that it actually is.

Is it too early to consider strength?

Euro ensembles all pretty weak, but Euro has been underperforming strength, right?

GFS ensembles *mostly* in the TS/cat 1 range, to my tired eyes.

edit: added 6z gefs

Last Edit: Sept 28, 2024 6:54:57 GMT -6 by Bent Oak

Tropically depressed.

SKYSUMMIT
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[H]HURRICANE MILTON - GULF OF MEXICO Sept 28, 2024 6:59:03 GMT -6 lisamath and jais like this

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Post by SKYSUMMIT on Sept 28, 2024 6:59:03 GMT -6

I have decided to not even look at the EURO much more this season.

So far nothing shows anything stronger than a Cat 1. North to Northeast Gulf Coast more than likely the path. But will there be a strong enough pull to swing her to the east? Or does she just move north and where does that happen?

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Zack Fradella Administrator Chairman \| Founder Posts: 8,546 Staff Member	[H]HURRICANE MILTON - GULF OF MEXICO Sept 28, 2024 7:05:59 GMT -6 lisamath and Bent Oak like this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by Zack Fradella on Sept 28, 2024 7:05:59 GMT -6 EURO has been terrible with intensity - especially the EURO ensembles. GFS has been spot on with intensity as of late.
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cajungal
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[H]HURRICANE MILTON - GULF OF MEXICO Sept 28, 2024 7:25:51 GMT -6 via mobile

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Post by cajungal on Sept 28, 2024 7:25:51 GMT -6

Sept 28, 2024 6:48:23 GMT -6 Bent Oak said:

Just tired, and its small modeled shape makes it *feel* more trivial -- not that it actually is.

Is it too early to consider strength?

Euro ensembles all pretty weak, but Euro has been underperforming strength, right?

GFS ensembles *mostly* in the TS/cat 1 range, to my tired eyes.

edit: added 6z gefs

Those all mostly look to go east of Louisiana with many heading back to same area that definitely doesn’t need it

60 miles southwest of New Orleans) Thibodaux, La

pastormichael Category 2 Pastor at Pine Ridge Methodist church between Greensburg and Kentwood, LA. Posts: 423	[H]HURRICANE MILTON - GULF OF MEXICO Sept 28, 2024 7:40:32 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by pastormichael on Sept 28, 2024 7:40:32 GMT -6 The next name on the list is Kirk.

Will - Ascension Parish
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[H]HURRICANE MILTON - GULF OF MEXICO Sept 28, 2024 7:48:05 GMT -6 Weatherman518 - 70047/NOLA likes this

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Post by Will - Ascension Parish on Sept 28, 2024 7:48:05 GMT -6

Sept 28, 2024 6:21:21 GMT -6 Zack Fradella said:

It looks to be a pretty persistent SE to NW motion riding around a Florida ridge. Now in 7-8 days, that ridge will weaken quite a bit but there really isn't a big front coming to sweep it up. All about timing and exactly where the center forms.

You can tell storm fatigue is real. The lack of posts on this right now.

Only one thing to do if something else develops and threatens.... let it develop and threaten

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[H]HURRICANE MILTON - GULF OF MEXICO Sept 28, 2024 8:03:03 GMT -6

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Post by Zack Fradella on Sept 28, 2024 8:03:03 GMT -6

It almost looks like the EURO ensembles are seeing two separate things here. GFS sort of the same thing.

The Bay of Campeche area is early on, then it sees the Caribbean to Gulf runner. There was also a noticeable uptick at 6Z for the EURO ensembles.

Last Edit: Sept 28, 2024 8:03:58 GMT -6 by Zack Fradella

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Dutar76
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[H]HURRICANE MILTON - GULF OF MEXICO Sept 28, 2024 8:34:37 GMT -6 via mobile

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Post by Dutar76 on Sept 28, 2024 8:34:37 GMT -6

Sept 28, 2024 8:03:03 GMT -6 Zack Fradella said:

It almost looks like the EURO ensembles are seeing two separate things here. GFS sort of the same thing.

The Bay of Campeche area is early on, then it sees the Caribbean to Gulf runner. There was also a noticeable uptick at 6Z for the EURO ensembles.

Tho 06z GFS shows two separate storms. First one is short lived in the BOC and the second one is small and fast and pretty strong into SELA-Mobile.

Im not sure what the Euro and Icon is showing. Kind of weird. Like maybe something tries to develop then get ripped apart maybe? They all take a pretty hard turn east.

Canadian is florida storm that gets stripped right at or before landfall with all its moisture getting ripped away sending a naked swirl sounth down the pennensila.

Last Edit: Sept 28, 2024 8:37:54 GMT -6 by Dutar76

trethe
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Posts: 1,425

[H]HURRICANE MILTON - GULF OF MEXICO Sept 28, 2024 8:53:32 GMT -6

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Post by trethe on Sept 28, 2024 8:53:32 GMT -6

Sept 28, 2024 6:21:21 GMT -6 Zack Fradella said:

It looks to be a pretty persistent SE to NW motion riding around a Florida ridge. Now in 7-8 days, that ridge will weaken quite a bit but there really isn't a big front coming to sweep it up. All about timing and exactly where the center forms.

You can tell storm fatigue is real. The lack of posts on this right now.

100 percent Zack. Storm fatigue. I usually go for a six mile walk every day. I have not been consistent with my daily routine over the last several weeks. Having all those hurricane snacks around are not kind.

frankp GCWX Supporter Posts: 592	[H]HURRICANE MILTON - GULF OF MEXICO Sept 28, 2024 9:15:51 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by frankp on Sept 28, 2024 9:15:51 GMT -6

[H]HURRICANE MILTON - GULF OF MEXICO

Post by Zack Fradella on Sept 28, 2024 6:21:21 GMT -6

Post by cajungal on Sept 28, 2024 6:32:14 GMT -6

Post by whitecap on Sept 28, 2024 6:41:39 GMT -6

Post by tcane on Sept 28, 2024 6:42:20 GMT -6

Post by Zack Fradella on Sept 28, 2024 6:42:22 GMT -6

Post by Bent Oak on Sept 28, 2024 6:48:23 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Sept 28, 2024 6:59:03 GMT -6

Post by Zack Fradella on Sept 28, 2024 7:05:59 GMT -6

Post by cajungal on Sept 28, 2024 7:25:51 GMT -6

Post by pastormichael on Sept 28, 2024 7:40:32 GMT -6

Post by Will - Ascension Parish on Sept 28, 2024 7:48:05 GMT -6

Post by Zack Fradella on Sept 28, 2024 8:03:03 GMT -6

Post by Dutar76 on Sept 28, 2024 8:34:37 GMT -6

Post by trethe on Sept 28, 2024 8:53:32 GMT -6

Post by frankp on Sept 28, 2024 9:15:51 GMT -6

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