[H]HURRICANE MILTON - GULF OF MEXICO

SKYSUMMIT
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[H]HURRICANE MILTON - GULF OF MEXICO Oct 6, 2024 11:48:48 GMT -6 Bayou Medic, lisamath, and 2 more like this

Quote

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Oct 6, 2024 11:48:48 GMT -6

Hurricane Milton Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
100 PM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND MILTON RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING
INTO A HURRICANE....

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.5N 94.0W
ABOUT 290 MI...465 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 815 MI...1310 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 100 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES

Last Edit: Oct 6, 2024 11:48:58 GMT -6 by SKYSUMMIT

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Bayou Medic Moderator Board Member Posts: 1,345 Staff Member	[H]HURRICANE MILTON - GULF OF MEXICO Oct 6, 2024 12:00:43 GMT -6 via mobile Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by Bayou Medic on Oct 6, 2024 12:00:43 GMT -6 Crazy! This was just labeled a Depression at 10am yesterday, and 27hrs later we have a steadily strengthening 80mph hurricane. WOW!
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KatG Tropical Storm Posts: 62	[H]HURRICANE MILTON - GULF OF MEXICO Oct 6, 2024 12:09:39 GMT -6 via mobile SKYSUMMIT likes this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by KatG on Oct 6, 2024 12:09:39 GMT -6 It's kinda small though, so it's going to be reactive quickly when it comes to increase and decrease intensity...

hurricaner Moderator Board Member Posts: 5,156 Staff Member	[H]HURRICANE MILTON - GULF OF MEXICO Oct 6, 2024 12:10:59 GMT -6 lisamath likes this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by hurricaner on Oct 6, 2024 12:10:59 GMT -6 This form the NHC bulletin. Hurricane and Storm Surge Watches could be required for portions of Florida late today.
	Last Edit: Oct 6, 2024 12:11:14 GMT -6 by hurricaner GCWX Board Member

finnshuman Tropical Storm Posts: 65	[H]HURRICANE MILTON - GULF OF MEXICO Oct 6, 2024 13:24:19 GMT -6 via mobile ju likes this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by finnshuman on Oct 6, 2024 13:24:19 GMT -6 Manatee, Pasco, Pinellas, and Hillsborough have all canceled for tomorrow-Wednesday. Polk just canceled Tuesday-Thursday.
	Last Edit: Oct 6, 2024 13:43:00 GMT -6 by finnshuman

hurricaner
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[H]HURRICANE MILTON - GULF OF MEXICO Oct 6, 2024 15:00:58 GMT -6

Quote

Post by hurricaner on Oct 6, 2024 15:00:58 GMT -6

NHC is now forecasting Milton to reach Cat 4.

Hurricane Milton Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
400 PM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024

...MILTON CONTINUING TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY...
...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF YUCATAN
PENINSULA...

SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.4N 93.8W
ABOUT 275 MI...440 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 805 MI...1295 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 100 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/2100Z 22.4N 93.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 07/0600Z 22.2N 92.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 07/1800Z 22.2N 90.9W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 08/0600Z 22.6N 89.0W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 08/1800Z 23.6N 86.9W 125 KT 145 MPH
60H 09/0600Z 25.2N 85.1W 120 KT 140 MPH
72H 09/1800Z 27.0N 83.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 10/1800Z 29.8N 77.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 11/1800Z 31.4N 68.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

Last Edit: Oct 6, 2024 15:02:26 GMT -6 by hurricaner

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hurricaner
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[H]HURRICANE MILTON - GULF OF MEXICO Oct 6, 2024 15:03:31 GMT -6

Quote

Post by hurricaner on Oct 6, 2024 15:03:31 GMT -6

From the NHC 4pm discussion.

The intensity forecast appears straightforward at first, with rapid
intensification likely while the small hurricane remains within
light shear and over very deep warm waters. Intensity guidance is
about as bullish as I've seen in this part of the basin, with
almost everything showing a peak intensity of category 4 or 5 in
the southern Gulf of Mexico in a day or two. The NHC forecast is
raised from the previous one and lies near the intensity consensus
model and still could be too low. Later on, vertical wind shear is
forecast to markedly increase as Milton approaches Florida, and
some weakening is anticipated. However, the regional hurricane
models are showing the system growing even if it weakens, and we are
expecting Milton to be a large hurricane at landfall, with very
dangerous impacts spread out over a big area. There is increasing
confidence that a powerful hurricane with life- threatening hazards
will be affecting portions of the Florida west coast around the
middle of this week. Residents there should closely monitor this
system and listen to local officials.

Last Edit: Oct 6, 2024 15:04:38 GMT -6 by hurricaner

GCWX Board Member

missy21
Tropical Low

Posts: 6

[H]HURRICANE MILTON - GULF OF MEXICO Oct 6, 2024 15:10:15 GMT -6 via mobile

Quote

Post by missy21 on Oct 6, 2024 15:10:15 GMT -6

Oct 6, 2024 15:03:31 GMT -6 hurricaner said:

From the NHC 4pm discussion.

The intensity forecast appears straightforward at first, with rapid
intensification likely while the small hurricane remains within
light shear and over very deep warm waters. Intensity guidance is
about as bullish as I've seen in this part of the basin, with
almost everything showing a peak intensity of category 4 or 5 in
the southern Gulf of Mexico in a day or two. The NHC forecast is
raised from the previous one and lies near the intensity consensus
model and still could be too low. Later on, vertical wind shear is
forecast to markedly increase as Milton approaches Florida, and
some weakening is anticipated. However, the regional hurricane
models are showing the system growing even if it weakens, and we are
expecting Milton to be a large hurricane at landfall, with very
dangerous impacts spread out over a big area. There is increasing
confidence that a powerful hurricane with life- threatening hazards
will be affecting portions of the Florida west coast around the
middle of this week. Residents there should closely monitor this
system and listen to local officials.

Asking for a friend! She has a trip planned to Disney World Tues-Sun. She is driving from NOLA. She has until tomorrow morning to cancel. Should she? TIA

wilee81 GCWX Supporter Posts: 649	[H]HURRICANE MILTON - GULF OF MEXICO Oct 6, 2024 15:20:55 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by wilee81 on Oct 6, 2024 15:20:55 GMT -6 Disney may cancel it for them. The park is solidly in the cone and it looks like Milton will be arriving there sometime Wednesday evening.

finnshuman
Tropical Storm

Posts: 65

[H]HURRICANE MILTON - GULF OF MEXICO Oct 6, 2024 15:30:23 GMT -6 via mobile SKYSUMMIT likes this

Quote

Post by finnshuman on Oct 6, 2024 15:30:23 GMT -6

Oct 6, 2024 15:10:15 GMT -6 missy21 said:

Oct 6, 2024 15:03:31 GMT -6 hurricaner said:

From the NHC 4pm discussion.

The intensity forecast appears straightforward at first, with rapid
intensification likely while the small hurricane remains within
light shear and over very deep warm waters. Intensity guidance is
about as bullish as I've seen in this part of the basin, with
almost everything showing a peak intensity of category 4 or 5 in
the southern Gulf of Mexico in a day or two. The NHC forecast is
raised from the previous one and lies near the intensity consensus
model and still could be too low. Later on, vertical wind shear is
forecast to markedly increase as Milton approaches Florida, and
some weakening is anticipated. However, the regional hurricane
models are showing the system growing even if it weakens, and we are
expecting Milton to be a large hurricane at landfall, with very
dangerous impacts spread out over a big area. There is increasing
confidence that a powerful hurricane with life- threatening hazards
will be affecting portions of the Florida west coast around the
middle of this week. Residents there should closely monitor this
system and listen to local officials.

Asking for a friend! She has a trip planned to Disney World Tues-Sun. She is driving from NOLA. She has until tomorrow morning to cancel. Should she? TIA

Disney Travel agent here: Disney will most likely be open Tuesday, closed Wednesday and depending on damage, opened Thursday. Some outdoor attractions may have damage and not be open. The resorts will have food, and if safe activities do to at the resorts.

Mike Naso Official Contributor Posts: 1,291	[H]HURRICANE MILTON - GULF OF MEXICO Oct 6, 2024 15:36:30 GMT -6 marshwarden and SKYSUMMIT like this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by Mike Naso on Oct 6, 2024 15:36:30 GMT -6

jw Tropical Low Posts: 19	[H]HURRICANE MILTON - GULF OF MEXICO Oct 6, 2024 16:01:04 GMT -6 via mobile Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by jw on Oct 6, 2024 16:01:04 GMT -6 Florida current radar has them getting drenched at the moment. That wont be helpful 3 days into a major hurricane landfall.

bstelly24-Denham Springs, LA
Meteorology Student

Posts: 961

[H]HURRICANE MILTON - GULF OF MEXICO Oct 6, 2024 16:10:42 GMT -6 via mobile cybersar, jimmycarl, and 1 more like this

Quote

Post by bstelly24-Denham Springs, LA on Oct 6, 2024 16:10:42 GMT -6

Oct 5, 2024 18:03:33 GMT -6 bstelly24-Denham Springs, LA said:

My Florida friend's father is a Commanding Officer at Stennis so he has an ear to the wall on things meteorological so he is telling her to fly back to Mississippi or evacuate to Orlando.

Update: She and her friend are driving back to Mississippi tonight.

trethe
GCWX Supporter

Posts: 1,423

[H]HURRICANE MILTON - GULF OF MEXICO Oct 6, 2024 16:21:37 GMT -6 cybersar likes this

Quote

Post by trethe on Oct 6, 2024 16:21:37 GMT -6

Oct 6, 2024 16:10:42 GMT -6 bstelly24-Denham Springs, LA said:

Oct 5, 2024 18:03:33 GMT -6 bstelly24-Denham Springs, LA said:

My Florida friend's father is a Commanding Officer at Stennis so he has an ear to the wall on things meteorological so he is telling her to fly back to Mississippi or evacuate to Orlando.

Update: She and her friend are driving back to Mississippi tonight.

Good decision... no matter the final outcome. Why risk it if you don't have to. Her father is probably very relieved.

bstelly24-Denham Springs, LA
Meteorology Student

Posts: 961

[H]HURRICANE MILTON - GULF OF MEXICO Oct 6, 2024 16:38:11 GMT -6 via mobile trethe likes this

Quote

Post by bstelly24-Denham Springs, LA on Oct 6, 2024 16:38:11 GMT -6

Oct 6, 2024 16:21:37 GMT -6 trethe said:

Oct 6, 2024 16:10:42 GMT -6 bstelly24-Denham Springs, LA said:

Update: She and her friend are driving back to Mississippi tonight.

Good decision... no matter the final outcome. Why risk it if you don't have to. Her father is probably very relieved.

He is. He's privy to weather information that us civilians aren't so it takes a lot to worry him. This one does. Her family members in New Port Richey are still recovering from Helene and don't want to evacuate.

[H]HURRICANE MILTON - GULF OF MEXICO

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Oct 6, 2024 11:48:48 GMT -6

Post by Bayou Medic on Oct 6, 2024 12:00:43 GMT -6

Post by KatG on Oct 6, 2024 12:09:39 GMT -6

Post by hurricaner on Oct 6, 2024 12:10:59 GMT -6

Post by finnshuman on Oct 6, 2024 13:24:19 GMT -6

Post by hurricaner on Oct 6, 2024 15:00:58 GMT -6

Post by hurricaner on Oct 6, 2024 15:03:31 GMT -6

Post by missy21 on Oct 6, 2024 15:10:15 GMT -6

Post by wilee81 on Oct 6, 2024 15:20:55 GMT -6

Post by finnshuman on Oct 6, 2024 15:30:23 GMT -6

Post by Mike Naso on Oct 6, 2024 15:36:30 GMT -6

Post by jw on Oct 6, 2024 16:01:04 GMT -6

Post by bstelly24-Denham Springs, LA on Oct 6, 2024 16:10:42 GMT -6

Post by trethe on Oct 6, 2024 16:21:37 GMT -6

Post by bstelly24-Denham Springs, LA on Oct 6, 2024 16:38:11 GMT -6

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