By the way, Christmas is looking damn cold on the 0z GFS.
How cold are we talking, Dylan?
Not a professional forecast by any means and should not be viewed as such - just my opinion. Audrey'57, Carla'61 Hilda'64, Betsy'65, Edith'71, Carmen'74, Danny'85, Juan'85, Andrew'92, Iniki'92 (while on vacation in Kauai), Lili'02, Rita'05, Gustav'08, Ike'08, No-Name'16, Harvey'17, Barry'19, Laura'20.
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You get some really cold air aloft but unfortunately a large chunk from the ground up to about 900MB is above freezing. Way too warm for frozen precip.
The good news is we are heading in the right direction. Give this pattern some time to settle in and who knows what will happen come the end of the month.
What about the wet bulb effect? Back when we had our big snow on December 11th a few years ago, it was 37/38 when snow started falling. Surface temp never got below 32/33, but we had 8" on the ground. Snow was very heavy though.
Last Edit: Dec 11, 2012 7:53:02 GMT -6 by SKYSUMMIT
Post by Zack Fradella on Dec 11, 2012 8:38:31 GMT -6
Back in 08' we had subfreezing temps down to about 950MB and had to wet bulb the rest. In this case, subfreezing temps only get down to about 900MB. Upper-level lows are always a tough forecast and the dynamics going on can sometimes lead to some big snows.
I think our time is coming over the next few weeks.
Want it to at least feel like Christmas. Instead of being out in shorts and flip flops. But some snow would be nice. Since us on the south shore have been teased, we haven't seen snow on the ground since Christmas Day 2004. So 7 year old never got to experience snow
Last Edit: Dec 11, 2012 10:27:35 GMT -6 by cajungal