Christmas Day - SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IMMINENT

SKYSUMMIT
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Christmas Day - SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IMMINENT Dec 7, 2012 21:56:25 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Dec 7, 2012 21:56:25 GMT -6

We're getting close to having Christmas Day within the long range forecast, and unfortunately, I have to say it's not looking too good with a southerly flow and temps that look to be in the 70's.

The good thing is it's a LONG ways away and we have plenty of time for things to flip around.

Last Edit: Dec 24, 2012 10:38:48 GMT -6 by SKYSUMMIT

Hammond, LA --> 2022/2023 Number of Freezes: 2
NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08
CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23

HarahanTim - Now in Covington! Moderator Director of Public Relations Posts: 5,833 Staff Member	Christmas Day - SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IMMINENT Dec 8, 2012 16:52:29 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by HarahanTim - Now in Covington! on Dec 8, 2012 16:52:29 GMT -6 Come on...you can do it!!! ;D
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HarahanTim - Now in Covington! Moderator Director of Public Relations Posts: 5,833 Staff Member	Christmas Day - SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IMMINENT Dec 9, 2012 17:29:53 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by HarahanTim - Now in Covington! on Dec 9, 2012 17:29:53 GMT -6 Hmmmmm...
	GCWX Director of Public Relations Weather Underground www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KLACOVIN110

SKYSUMMIT Administrator President \| Director of Operations Posts: 64,384 Staff Member	Christmas Day - SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IMMINENT Dec 9, 2012 18:55:21 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by SKYSUMMIT on Dec 9, 2012 18:55:21 GMT -6 That's all we need...severe weather for Christmas.
	Hammond, LA --> 2022/2023 Number of Freezes: 2 NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08 CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23

SKYSUMMIT Administrator President \| Director of Operations Posts: 64,384 Staff Member	Christmas Day - SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IMMINENT Dec 10, 2012 12:35:20 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by SKYSUMMIT on Dec 10, 2012 12:35:20 GMT -6 Moved Dylan's post from the Winter thread to here.... Dec 10, 2012 11:53:36 GMT -6 DYLAN FEDERICO said: White Christmas anyone? ;D
	Hammond, LA --> 2022/2023 Number of Freezes: 2 NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08 CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23

harpman GCWX Supporter Posts: 6,137	Christmas Day - SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IMMINENT Dec 10, 2012 14:09:07 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by harpman on Dec 10, 2012 14:09:07 GMT -6 Well, at least it's something to watch and talk about. It will probably be gone tomorrow! NDG's Euro doesn't go out that far does it?
	Blowin' harp!

SKYSUMMIT Administrator President \| Director of Operations Posts: 64,384 Staff Member	Christmas Day - SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IMMINENT Dec 10, 2012 15:12:51 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by SKYSUMMIT on Dec 10, 2012 15:12:51 GMT -6 Dec 10, 2012 14:09:07 GMT -6 harpman said: Well, at least it's something to watch and talk about. It will probably be gone tomorrow! NDG's Euro doesn't go out that far does it? Nope
	Hammond, LA --> 2022/2023 Number of Freezes: 2 NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08 CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23

harpman GCWX Supporter Posts: 6,137	Christmas Day - SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IMMINENT Dec 10, 2012 15:14:48 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by harpman on Dec 10, 2012 15:14:48 GMT -6 Keep us posted from run to run. Hopefully we have a shot at some fun wx this time of year! Thanks!
	Blowin' harp!

Zack Fradella
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Christmas Day - SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IMMINENT Dec 10, 2012 17:08:22 GMT -6

Post by Zack Fradella on Dec 10, 2012 17:08:22 GMT -6

It seems as though the models are playing catch-up with this evolving pattern. The Pacific warmth has ruled the pattern for the past few weeks even with a favorable -NAO and -AO. Some of the latest runs have shown a tendancy to dig some deep troughs and develop a storm track closer to the Gulf Coast as we head towards the Christmas holiday.

Now I still do not see a long lasting +PNA ridge that would lock the cold in place but maybe that will come around by Christmas/New Years. The latest 18Z GFS is trying to develop a closed low across the Deep South early next week possibly leading to an early snow for Northern La/Ms/AL.

At the very least things will become much more exciting over the next few weeks.

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DYLAN FEDERICO Meteorologist GCWX Supporter Posts: 17,510	Christmas Day - SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IMMINENT Dec 10, 2012 18:40:57 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by DYLAN FEDERICO on Dec 10, 2012 18:40:57 GMT -6 Well, we would probably see at least some flurries if this happened considering the forcing. Only a week out too. Not to mention the Euro is also trending towards this solution.
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harpman GCWX Supporter Posts: 6,137	Christmas Day - SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IMMINENT Dec 10, 2012 19:22:30 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by harpman on Dec 10, 2012 19:22:30 GMT -6 What date is this for again?? The 12th?
	Blowin' harp!

SKYSUMMIT Administrator President \| Director of Operations Posts: 64,384 Staff Member	Christmas Day - SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IMMINENT Dec 10, 2012 19:35:31 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by SKYSUMMIT on Dec 10, 2012 19:35:31 GMT -6 Dec 10, 2012 19:22:30 GMT -6 harpman said: What date is this for again?? The 12th? The first chart Dylan posted was for Christmas Day. The second, most recently posted is for 12/18...next Tuesday.
	Hammond, LA --> 2022/2023 Number of Freezes: 2 NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08 CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23

harpman GCWX Supporter Posts: 6,137	Christmas Day - SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IMMINENT Dec 10, 2012 19:38:56 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by harpman on Dec 10, 2012 19:38:56 GMT -6 Ok, now I see it. They way they put the dates on there made it confusing. I should know better after all these years!! Gettin' old is a b!tch! hee hee.....
	Blowin' harp!

ndg
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Christmas Day - SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IMMINENT Dec 10, 2012 20:45:13 GMT -6

Post by ndg on Dec 10, 2012 20:45:13 GMT -6

Dec 10, 2012 18:40:57 GMT -6 DYLAN FEDERICO said:

Well, we would probably see at least some flurries if this happened considering the forcing. Only a week out too. Not to mention the Euro is also trending towards this solution.

Don't be picking on my Euro, Dylan

To correct you, the Euro has been showing that cold core disturbance for early next week, something similar to the 18z GFS, since at least yesterday, is the GFS that is now catching up to the Euro's solution.

DYLAN FEDERICO
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Christmas Day - SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IMMINENT Dec 10, 2012 22:24:48 GMT -6

Post by DYLAN FEDERICO on Dec 10, 2012 22:24:48 GMT -6

Dec 10, 2012 20:45:13 GMT -6 ndg said:

Dec 10, 2012 18:40:57 GMT -6 DYLAN FEDERICO said:

Well, we would probably see at least some flurries if this happened considering the forcing. Only a week out too. Not to mention the Euro is also trending towards this solution.

Don't be picking on my Euro, Dylan

Oppps your right Dennis. My bad. But anyway, I'm starting to get excited with the GFS getting ready to show this solution again on the 0z run. We will know for sure in the next 20 minutes.

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stormydds: Thanks for your response. I felt that is the case. that's too bad. Has there been any peer reviewed papers on the LRC hypothesis? Nov 4, 2022 14:01:51 GMT -6

Zack Fradella: Not sure, the LRC is something that takes a lot of work to follow and keep up with. It's not as easy as looking at the parameters and making a forecast. This deters many from even giving it a chance. Also, there is some doubt from the weather world. Nov 4, 2022 3:38:49 GMT -6

stormydds: Zack, a friend had a meeting in Lafayette which Rob Perillo spoke.He asked him why the LRC is not used to forecast hurricanes by NOAA.His answer was that Lezak won't share the info.I saw the podcast you and David made with Gary.He seemed open.What gives? Nov 3, 2022 14:39:19 GMT -6

Christmas Day - SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IMMINENT

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Dec 7, 2012 21:56:25 GMT -6

Post by HarahanTim - Now in Covington! on Dec 8, 2012 16:52:29 GMT -6

Post by HarahanTim - Now in Covington! on Dec 9, 2012 17:29:53 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Dec 9, 2012 18:55:21 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Dec 10, 2012 12:35:20 GMT -6

Post by harpman on Dec 10, 2012 14:09:07 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Dec 10, 2012 15:12:51 GMT -6

Post by harpman on Dec 10, 2012 15:14:48 GMT -6

Post by Zack Fradella on Dec 10, 2012 17:08:22 GMT -6

Post by DYLAN FEDERICO on Dec 10, 2012 18:40:57 GMT -6

Post by harpman on Dec 10, 2012 19:22:30 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Dec 10, 2012 19:35:31 GMT -6

Post by harpman on Dec 10, 2012 19:38:56 GMT -6

Post by ndg on Dec 10, 2012 20:45:13 GMT -6

Post by DYLAN FEDERICO on Dec 10, 2012 22:24:48 GMT -6

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