Christmas Day - SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IMMINENT

SKYSUMMIT Administrator President \| Director of Operations Posts: 64,384 Staff Member	Christmas Day - SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IMMINENT Dec 11, 2012 11:25:03 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by SKYSUMMIT on Dec 11, 2012 11:25:03 GMT -6 Phew....the 12z GFS backs off on our wintry precip for next week, but boy does it slam the Smokies!
	Hammond, LA --> 2022/2023 Number of Freezes: 2 NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08 CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23

SKYSUMMIT Administrator President \| Director of Operations Posts: 64,384 Staff Member	Christmas Day - SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IMMINENT Dec 11, 2012 11:33:50 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by SKYSUMMIT on Dec 11, 2012 11:33:50 GMT -6 On a side note, Christmas is still looking cold.
	Hammond, LA --> 2022/2023 Number of Freezes: 2 NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08 CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23

DYLAN FEDERICO Meteorologist GCWX Supporter Posts: 17,510	Christmas Day - SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IMMINENT Dec 11, 2012 11:45:18 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by DYLAN FEDERICO on Dec 11, 2012 11:45:18 GMT -6 All it would take is for us to get in on the action is for this upper low to dive a little more south than forecasted and were in the action. And were still 7 days out!
	Twitter: @dylanfedericowx Facebook: Meteorologist Dylan Federico WINK Meteorologist

harpman GCWX Supporter Posts: 6,137	Christmas Day - SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IMMINENT Dec 11, 2012 12:11:48 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by harpman on Dec 11, 2012 12:11:48 GMT -6 Let's see what the Euro says in a little while.
	Blowin' harp!

harpman GCWX Supporter Posts: 6,137	Christmas Day - SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IMMINENT Dec 11, 2012 13:19:13 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by harpman on Dec 11, 2012 13:19:13 GMT -6 ....and the Euro says...?
	Blowin' harp!

SKYSUMMIT Administrator President \| Director of Operations Posts: 64,384 Staff Member	Christmas Day - SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IMMINENT Dec 11, 2012 13:44:26 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by SKYSUMMIT on Dec 11, 2012 13:44:26 GMT -6 PSU ewall only going out to 168 hours, but looks convincing...looks like the low may dive a little farther south on it as compared to the GFS. Here's the 168 hour image:
	Hammond, LA --> 2022/2023 Number of Freezes: 2 NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08 CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23

harpman GCWX Supporter Posts: 6,137	Christmas Day - SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IMMINENT Dec 11, 2012 13:46:38 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by harpman on Dec 11, 2012 13:46:38 GMT -6 Great! So we still may be in the ballgame!!
	Blowin' harp!

cajungal Category 5 Posts: 4,850	Christmas Day - SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IMMINENT Dec 11, 2012 14:55:13 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by cajungal on Dec 11, 2012 14:55:13 GMT -6 Just please let the south shore Esp Thibodaux get in in the action this time
	60 miles southwest of New Orleans) Thibodaux, La

ndg GCWX Supporter Posts: 9,458	Christmas Day - SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IMMINENT Dec 11, 2012 15:27:40 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by ndg on Dec 11, 2012 15:27:40 GMT -6 This might be just another case of an I-20 corridor light snow event, if it gets that far south, but like Dylan says, there is is still plenty of time for things to change, but we need more cold air at the surface.

SKYSUMMIT Administrator President \| Director of Operations Posts: 64,384 Staff Member	Christmas Day - SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IMMINENT Dec 11, 2012 16:35:30 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by SKYSUMMIT on Dec 11, 2012 16:35:30 GMT -6 18z GFS keeps the track of the low to the north with the closest frozen precip being in the Jackson, MS area.
	Hammond, LA --> 2022/2023 Number of Freezes: 2 NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08 CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23

tgrgrd00
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Posts: 817

Christmas Day - SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IMMINENT Dec 11, 2012 16:56:45 GMT -6

Post by tgrgrd00 on Dec 11, 2012 16:56:45 GMT -6

Dec 11, 2012 15:27:40 GMT -6 ndg said:

This might be just another case of an I-20 corridor light snow event, if it gets that far south, but like Dylan says, there is is still plenty of time for things to change, but we need more cold air at the surface.

The snow scrooge is at least in the thread and discussing the possibility. So that is a good sign!

Zack Fradella
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Christmas Day - SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IMMINENT Dec 11, 2012 20:27:27 GMT -6

Post by Zack Fradella on Dec 11, 2012 20:27:27 GMT -6

Everybody rub it in the scrooges face! Stayed in the 40's for highs with clouds!

Orlando Weather:

Mostly Cloudy

71°F

22°C

Humidity94%
Wind SpeedE 6 mph
Barometer30.02 in (1016.9 mb)
Dewpoint69°F (21°C)
Visibility9.00 mi

Last Update on 11 Dec 8:53 pm EST

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SKYSUMMIT
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Christmas Day - SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IMMINENT Dec 11, 2012 21:53:23 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Dec 11, 2012 21:53:23 GMT -6

Today was the coldest of the season so far I believe. At least it was for me where I was working. I was out in the boonies up in the hills with no tree coverage. My truck temp never got higher than 43 so with a northerly breeze, wind chills had to be in the 30's all day where I was. I LOVED IT!

Hammond, LA --> 2022/2023 Number of Freezes: 2
NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08
CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23

ndg
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Posts: 9,458

Christmas Day - SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IMMINENT Dec 12, 2012 0:41:40 GMT -6

Post by ndg on Dec 12, 2012 0:41:40 GMT -6

Dec 11, 2012 20:27:27 GMT -6 Zack Fradella said:

You can keep your 40s, I don't want it,

Deleted Posts: 0	Christmas Day - SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IMMINENT Dec 12, 2012 5:29:18 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by Deleted on Dec 12, 2012 5:29:18 GMT -6 Go figure, the 06z GFS eliminates any wintry precipitation chances (not like there was much to begin with) for the Gulf Coast.
	Last Edit: Dec 12, 2012 5:32:39 GMT -6 by Deleted

stormydds: Thanks for your response. I felt that is the case. that's too bad. Has there been any peer reviewed papers on the LRC hypothesis? Nov 4, 2022 14:01:51 GMT -6

Zack Fradella: Not sure, the LRC is something that takes a lot of work to follow and keep up with. It's not as easy as looking at the parameters and making a forecast. This deters many from even giving it a chance. Also, there is some doubt from the weather world. Nov 4, 2022 3:38:49 GMT -6

stormydds: Zack, a friend had a meeting in Lafayette which Rob Perillo spoke.He asked him why the LRC is not used to forecast hurricanes by NOAA.His answer was that Lezak won't share the info.I saw the podcast you and David made with Gary.He seemed open.What gives? Nov 3, 2022 14:39:19 GMT -6

Christmas Day - SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IMMINENT

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Dec 11, 2012 11:25:03 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Dec 11, 2012 11:33:50 GMT -6

Post by DYLAN FEDERICO on Dec 11, 2012 11:45:18 GMT -6

Post by harpman on Dec 11, 2012 12:11:48 GMT -6

Post by harpman on Dec 11, 2012 13:19:13 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Dec 11, 2012 13:44:26 GMT -6

Post by harpman on Dec 11, 2012 13:46:38 GMT -6

Post by cajungal on Dec 11, 2012 14:55:13 GMT -6

Post by ndg on Dec 11, 2012 15:27:40 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Dec 11, 2012 16:35:30 GMT -6

Post by tgrgrd00 on Dec 11, 2012 16:56:45 GMT -6

Post by Zack Fradella on Dec 11, 2012 20:27:27 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Dec 11, 2012 21:53:23 GMT -6

Post by ndg on Dec 12, 2012 0:41:40 GMT -6

Post by Deleted on Dec 12, 2012 5:29:18 GMT -6

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