Post by harpman - old on Dec 12, 2012 10:42:25 GMT -6
I copied and pasted this from the KHOU forum in Houston. Thoughts?
Just a bit of a potential Holiday teaser for those wondering what the longer range guidance is sniffing. As stated early, there have been some indications that things could become a bit interesting near the Christmas time frame and we are now seeing some consistency in the guidance solutions. The GFS is suggesting tropical forcing will change that pattern that has plagued the N Pacific to a more favorable pattern to deliver all that cold air that has been building across Alaska and Western Canada S into the Lower 48. The GFS operational as well as the ensembles have been slowly but steadily trending toward developing large dome of High Pressure over Alaska as well as another dome over or near Hudson Bay. As we have been discussing a progressive pattern has developed and the Sub Tropical Jet is becoming active or noisy with disturbances riding NE from the Central/E Pacific Ocean. At the same time trough after trough of low pressure sweeps down the W Coast and an occasional surface low develops as well as an upper low at the 500mb level. These series of low pressures will ride along the Polar jet that is slowly but surely dipping further S.
Now what does that mean for New Mexico, Texas, Oklahoma and Louisiana? Increased storminess in the progressive fast moving flow will begin to slow as blocking well to our N forces an active Southern Stream storm track. In time as we near the Christmas Holidays, the Polar Jet and the Sub Tropical Jet will be in close proximity to each other. Cold air will build across the Western US first and the slowly progress eastward in about a week to ten days. What we'll need to monitor is the potential for a building snow pack across the Plains and the Rockies during the next week or two. There is multiple storm systems already on the horizon to our NW and that should continue for the foreseeable future. For the cold weather lover, things do appear to be heading toward a pattern that would favor unloading some of that very cold air bringing it S into our Region near Christmas. There still remains a lot of uncertainty, so expect changes in the days ahead.
Just a bit of a potential Holiday teaser for those wondering what the longer range guidance is sniffing. As stated early, there have been some indications that things could become a bit interesting near the Christmas time frame and we are now seeing some consistency in the guidance solutions. The GFS is suggesting tropical forcing will change that pattern that has plagued the N Pacific to a more favorable pattern to deliver all that cold air that has been building across Alaska and Western Canada S into the Lower 48. The GFS operational as well as the ensembles have been slowly but steadily trending toward developing large dome of High Pressure over Alaska as well as another dome over or near Hudson Bay. As we have been discussing a progressive pattern has developed and the Sub Tropical Jet is becoming active or noisy with disturbances riding NE from the Central/E Pacific Ocean. At the same time trough after trough of low pressure sweeps down the W Coast and an occasional surface low develops as well as an upper low at the 500mb level. These series of low pressures will ride along the Polar jet that is slowly but surely dipping further S.
Now what does that mean for New Mexico, Texas, Oklahoma and Louisiana? Increased storminess in the progressive fast moving flow will begin to slow as blocking well to our N forces an active Southern Stream storm track. In time as we near the Christmas Holidays, the Polar Jet and the Sub Tropical Jet will be in close proximity to each other. Cold air will build across the Western US first and the slowly progress eastward in about a week to ten days. What we'll need to monitor is the potential for a building snow pack across the Plains and the Rockies during the next week or two. There is multiple storm systems already on the horizon to our NW and that should continue for the foreseeable future. For the cold weather lover, things do appear to be heading toward a pattern that would favor unloading some of that very cold air bringing it S into our Region near Christmas. There still remains a lot of uncertainty, so expect changes in the days ahead.
please please please let it happen.
