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cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Mar 8, 2015 4:15:48 GMT -6

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Post by cycloneye on Mar 8, 2015 4:15:48 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
541 AM AST SUN MAR 8 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...THE WEAK CUT-OFF LOW JUST SOUTH
SOUTHEAST OF SAINT CROIX WILL DISSIPATE AS THE RIDGE EXTENDING
FROM CENTRAL AMERICA TO CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS BUILDS OVER THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN DURING THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
TROPICAL ATLANTIC AT BOTH MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
AND DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE JUST NORTH OF THE
AREA...SHIFTING WEST A FEW HUNDRED MILES DURING THE WEEK. MID
LEVELS WILL REMAIN VERY DRY.

AT LOWER LEVELS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL EMERGE FROM THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES EARLY THIS WEEK INTO THE RIDGE ALREADY OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC CAUSING THE TRADE WINDS TO INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY. A WEAK TROUGH WILL BE GENERATED OUT OF THE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND MOVE WEST. IT WILL
PASS OVER THE LOCAL AREA ON TUESDAY AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A
FURTHER INCREASE IN WINDS. TRADE WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BUT HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY WILL CAUSE WINDS TO INCREASE AGAIN ON
SATURDAY. PATCHES OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP SHALLOW SHOWERS MOVING
OVER THE AREA WITH LIMITED RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PATCHY CLOUDS BROUGHT A FEW SHOWERS TO THE WINDWARD
PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND ALSO TO THE U.S.VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE
GFS SUGGESTS THAT MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS FOLLOWING SUIT. MID LEVELS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE VERY DRY AND ARE ALREADY ERODING RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES AT LOWER LEVELS. DEW POINTS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE MID 60S IN
MANY PLACES AROUND THE FORECAST AREA AND IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
THIS WILL KEEP SHOWERS MOSTLY ISOLATED TODAY. INCREASING MOISTURE
FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL CAUSE SHOWERS TO INCREASE WITH
SHOWERS LIKELY OVER THE WINDWARD SLOPES OF ISLAND MOUNTAINS.
ANOTHER EQUALLY SIGNIFICANT PULSE OF MOISTURE AND A WEAK TROUGH
WILL ALSO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH AT LEAST
SCATTERED SHOWERS ON THE WINDWARD SLOPES OF PUERTO RICO AND OVER
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER
WEDNESDAY MORNING...ANOTHER WIND SURGE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON
SATURDAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH SOUTHEAST INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC ACCOMPANIED BY BRIEF DRYING. A COLD FRONT IS
BEING FORECAST BY THE GFS TO APPROACH THE AREA NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TERMINALS
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WITH SEA BREEZE
VARIATIONS AT THE SURFACE AT AROUND 10-15 KT AND GUSTY AFTER 08/13Z.
PASSING SHOWERS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH TEMPO CIGS
AT AROUND FL050-060.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE INCREASING TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES GOING UP OVER UNPROTECTED WATERS
TONIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN HAZARDOUS THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS AIR FROM THE VERY DRY
MID LEVELS HAS BEEN ABLE TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE CAUSING
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN CABO ROJO AND CAMP SANTIAGO TO DROP TO
CRITICAL VALUES AND AS LOW AS 32 PERCENT AT CAMP SANTIAGO. WINDS
ALSO WERE STRONG ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A RED FLAG WARNING IN CABO
ROJO. CLOUDINESS AND SHOWER COVERAGE HAS INCREASED OVERNIGHT
THOUGH LITTLE IF ANY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE AFFECTED SOUTH
COAST AREAS. IN FACT WITH DEW POINTS SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER AT THE
SURFACE TODAY FROM YESTERDAY AND DRY AIR STILL IN PLACE AT MID
LEVELS...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL LIKELY REACH OR GO BELOW THE 40
TO 50 PERCENT RANGE ON THE SOUTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO...AND POSSIBLY
SAINT CROIX...AND FUEL MOISTURES WILL LIKELY DIP AGAIN TO AT OR
BELOW CRITICAL VALUES. WITH WINDS INCREASING SLIGHTLY DURING THE
DAY THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF A RED FLAG WARNING BEING ISSUED
LATER THIS MORNING FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 75 87 75 / 40 40 50 40
STT 85 73 86 75 / 40 40 50 30

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Mar 9, 2015 4:21:01 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Mar 9, 2015 4:21:01 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
514 AM AST MON MAR 9 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...THE WEAK TROUGH IN THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC WILL DISSIPATE AS A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS RIDGE WILL APPROACH NO MORE
CLOSELY THAN EASTERN HISPANIOLA.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA
WILL DRIFT TO JUST NORTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BY THE END OF
THE WEEK AND INTO CUBA OVER THE WEEKEND. A RIDGE WILL...HOWEVER...
REMAIN OVER OR CLOSE TO PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
AND MID LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY DRY THROUGH THE NEXT 10
DAYS.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGHER PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE NORTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA WITH LOW PRESSURE NESTLED OVER COLOMBIA. PATCHES OF
MOISTURE WILL DRIFT THROUGH PROVIDING BRIEF SHOWERS. THE TRADE
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY BUT INCREASE AGAIN BY
SUNDAY. AT THIS TIME THE GFS EXPECTS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE TO
DEVELOP JUST EAST OF NORTH CAROLINA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS PASSED THROUGH THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND
SOME DID BRUSH THE NORTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO AND ENTER ON THE
EASTERN SLOPES. A BAND OF SHOWERS WAS ALSO MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH VERY LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS RESULTING. SAINT THOMAS
REPORTED SIX ONE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. THIS BAND WILL MOVE INTO
PUERTO RICO LATER THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH SHOWERS LIKELY IN THE EAST. RAIN AMOUNTS WILL STILL BE QUITE
LIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN IN THE RANGE OF 1.2
TO 1.4 INCHES BETWEEN NOW AND THURSDAY WITH ONE VERY SHORT DIP
BELOW 1 INCH EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SUGGESTS THAT SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AROUND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
ONTO THE EASTERN SLOPES OF PUERTO RICO UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND WHEN MOISTURE
DIMINISHES.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT SHRA TODAY TO CAUSE PSBL BRF MVFR ALL TAFS XCP
TJPS. MTN OBSCURATIONS. MOST SHRA WL NOT LWR CONDS. CONT TRADE WND
THRU AT LEAST TUE...E 18-32 KT.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL GO UP OVER MOST WATERS
TODAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MOISTURE HAS DEEPENED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...BUT
SOME DRY AIR MAY STILL BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN OVER INTERIOR PUERTO
RICO TO LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO CLOSE TO CRITICAL VALUES.
WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO INCREASE IN THE AREA. THE ISSUANCE OF A RED
FLAG WARNING FOR SOUTH COAST AREAS WILL BE CONSIDERED AFTER THE
MORNING SOUNDING IS RECEIVED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 73 86 74 / 50 40 30 30
STT 79 73 86 72 / 50 50 20 20

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Mar 10, 2015 4:13:56 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Mar 10, 2015 4:13:56 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
609 AM AST TUE MAR 10 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE THE DOMINATE WEATHER FEATURE
ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL EXTEND AT LEAST UNTIL NEXT WEEK. EACH
DAY...PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
FROM TIME TO TIME BRINGING BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGES SHOW ADVECTION OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WITH TRADE WIND SHOWERS COMING ACROSS/TOWARD THE
ISLANDS. THE STRONG SURFACE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE WILL INHIBIT STRONG SHOWER ACTIVITY...
HOWEVER BRISK EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT PATCHES OF
CLOUDS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS.

AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL DIMINISH
THEREFORE...SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE CREATING MOSTLY CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER PATTERN.
ALTHOUGH BRIEF LIGHT TRADE WIND SHOWERS ACROSS THE WINDWARD
SECTIONS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.

THIS BREEZY...FAIR WEATHER PATTERN WITH OCCASIONAL BRIEF TRADE
WIND SHOWERS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AS A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS AS THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...OCNL MVFR AT TNCM AND TKPK IN -SHRA TIL 10/13Z
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...WITH VCSH POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND THE LEEWARD AND USVI
TERMINALS AS WELL AS TJSJ TIL 10/15Z. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE EAST
10-15 KTS...BUT INCRG AFTER 10/13Z TO 15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS PSBL TO
30 KT. MTN OBSCURATIONS ERN PR TIL 10/16Z.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS UP TO 24 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED ON THE SURROUNDING
WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT ALONG WITH CHOPPY SEAS OF 7 TO 8 FEET. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE AREA WATERS. FOR
BEACH GOERS...THERE IS A MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL BEACHES...PLEASE REFER TO THE LOCAL SURF
ZONE FORECAST FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS...AND A DRYING TREND
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG SURFACE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
THEREFORE...AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTH
COASTAL PLAINS...MONA ISLAND AND SAINT CROIX BOTH TODAY AND
TOMORROW. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 73 85 73 / 20 30 30 20
STT 85 72 85 73 / 20 30 30 20

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Mar 11, 2015 4:27:27 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Mar 11, 2015 4:27:27 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
539 AM AST WED MAR 11 2015

.SYNOPSIS...BUILDING MID TO HIGH UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL MAINTAIN MOSTLY
DRY AND STABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL THEREFORE
MAINTAIN THE FAIRLY STRONG SUBSIDENCE CAP INVERSION IN PLACE FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE WEST AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT LEAST THROUGH
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS WERE NOTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS. VERY LITTLE ACTIVITY WAS OBSERVED OVER LAND AREAS. HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN STABLE
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES
THE LOCAL REGION. IN THE LONG TERM...GFS COMPUTER MODEL FORECAST A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL EXIT THE EASTERN U.S BY SUNDAY AND WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST...APPROACHING THE LOCAL REGION BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME...NO MAJOR EFFECTS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
FEATURE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS. HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AFT
11/20Z IN PASSING SHRA OVER THE USVI AND LEEWARD TERMINALS. EAST
WINDS OF 15-25 KT WILL PREVAIL BELOW FL050.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 8 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 23 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE NEXT FEW DAYS. AS A RESULT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR MOST COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
TODAY...FROM 10 AM AST...THROUGH 6 PM AST TONIGHT FOR FIRE WEATHER
ZONES 002 AND 014. FOR UPDATES...LOCAL FIRE DEPARTMENT AND
EMERGENCY MANAGER SHOULD REFER TO THE LATEST FIRE WEATHER MESSAGES
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WFO SAN JUAN PR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 74 86 74 / 30 20 20 20
STT 85 74 86 74 / 30 20 20 20

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Mar 12, 2015 4:18:43 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Mar 12, 2015 4:18:43 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
534 AM AST THU MAR 12 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD THROUGH MONDAY...
ERODING TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A DEEP TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. MIGRATORY SURFACE HIGHS NORTH OF THE AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE A MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. UNDER RIDGE PATTERN ALOFT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL VALUES AND BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS...CONTINUE
TO EXPECT BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AS
WELL AS THE EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO FROM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLOUDINESS WITH SHOWERS PREVAILED ACROSS MAINLAND
PUERTO RICO OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS WERE BETWEEN ONE
QUARTER TO HALF INCH. EARLY THIS MORNING...SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED
MAINLY OVER THE CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS. A DRIER AIR MASS HAVE
STARTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN OBSERVED. FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...VERY
LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED...AS THIS DRY AIR DOMINATES THE
LOCAL REGION.

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DOMINATING THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL RESULT IN FAIR
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...STRONG TRADE WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS FROM TIME TO TIME NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. IN
GENERAL...LITTLE CHANGES IN THIS WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED
THROUGH AT LEAST MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE THRU MID MORNING IN PASSING -SHRA OVER THE USVI AND
LEEWARD TERMINALS. EAST WINDS OF 15-25 KT WILL PREVAIL BELOW
FL050.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 7 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 22 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS TODAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR MOST COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 73 84 74 / 30 30 30 30
STT 85 74 85 74 / 30 30 30 20

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Mar 13, 2015 4:17:34 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Mar 13, 2015 4:17:34 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
512 AM AST FRI MAR 13 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATES THE
LOCAL REGION NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO
APPROACH THE REGION NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...INCREASING CLOUDINESS WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS
OBSERVED OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS OVERNIGHT.
MOST SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO.
THESE SHOWERS WERE MOVING RAPIDLY WEST SOUTHWEST UNDER A EAST
NORTHEAST WIND FLOW. FOR TODAY...AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS WITH
SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE LOCAL REGION.
THEREFORE...CLOUDINESS WITH PASSING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
MOST OF THE DAY.

THE LOCAL WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED BY AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS
FEATURE SHOULD LIMIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS OVER
THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THUS...ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PASSING
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...
VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND THE USVI. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO
THE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE A MODERATE TO
STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS...BUT THE WIND
SHOULD BE WEAKER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. THIS TRADE WIND FLOW WILL
TRANSPORT SMALL PATCHES OF MOISTURE OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS FROM
TIME. NOT CHANGES TO THE PRESENT WEATHER PATTERN ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...A NORTHEAST FLOW WILL
PUSH PASSING -SHRA OVER NORTH AND EAST PR/USVI FROM TIME TO TIME.
THEREFORE...BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND TJSJ AND TIST.
LLVL WINDS WILL CONTINUE FM THE NE AT 10-20 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS UP
TO 25 KT NEAR SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...LOCA BUOY SHOWED SEAS BETWEEN 4-6 FEET. MARINE
CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED WITH SEAS UP TO 6 FEET AND WINDS AROUND 20
KNOTS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WHICH WERE IN EFFECT HAS BEEN
CANCELLED. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS
MOST COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 74 85 73 / 30 30 30 30
STT 85 73 85 73 / 30 30 20 30

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Mar 14, 2015 4:41:04 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Mar 14, 2015 4:41:04 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
624 AM AST SAT MAR 14 2015

.SYNOPSIS....MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE
NORTH CARIBBEAN REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THEN...A BROAD POLAR LOW
WILL MOVE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING THE
RIDGE TO ESTABLISH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. A FRONT BOUNDARY SUPPORTED
BY THE POLAR LOW WILL STALL NORTH OF THE ISLANDS ON MONDAY. THE
SHEARLINE/PREFERENTIAL TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL MOVE OVER THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLANDS ENHANCING THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN ACCUMULATIONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE RIDGE PATTERN ALOFT AREA WILL MAINTAIN A GENERALLY
A FAIR WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE ISLANDS DURING THE WEEKEND. THEREFORE...
EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS PREVAILING ACROSS PR
AND USVI SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OPERATIONAL MODELS AGREE ON FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS PREVAILING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HRS.
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID LEVEL RIDGE...A FAIRLY STRONG SUBSIDENCE
CAP WILL TRAP THE MOISTURE AT LOW LEVELS...LIMITING THE HEAVY RAINFALL
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONT WILL HAVE AN ASSOCIATED SHEAR LINE/PRE-FRONTAL THAT WILL AFFECT
THE ISLANDS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...INCREASING THE FREQUENCY OF THE
SHOWERS MONDAY. IT APPEARS THAT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT WITH THE
SHEARLINE AS A MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE CAP WILL PERSIST THROUGH
AT LEAST MIDWEEK. HOWEVER...SHALLOW CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW
LIGHT AND BRIEF SHOWERS ALONG NORTHERN COASTS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE
USVI AT NIGHT AND EARLY IN THE MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...A NORTHEAST FLOW WILL
PUSH PASSING -SHRA OVER NORTH AND EAST PR/USVI DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. SOME CLOUDINESS WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER
TJMZ THIS AFTERNOON. LLVL WINDS WILL CONTINUE FM THE NE AT 10-15 KT
WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 20 KT.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS OF 15-20 KT AND SEAS OF 4-6 FEET WILL PREVAIL OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS ARE URGED
TO EXERCISE CAUTION ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 75 86 75 / 20 30 30 20
STT 85 76 84 76 / 20 30 30 30

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Mar 15, 2015 4:41:23 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Mar 15, 2015 4:41:23 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
616 AM AST SUN MAR 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD THROUGH TONIGHT. A
BROAD POLAR LOW WILL AMPLIFY AND MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
ON MONDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SUPPORTED BY THE POLAR LOW WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THE FRONT WILL NOT REACH THE
ISLANDS...HOWEVER THE ASSOCIATED SHEARLINE WILL MOVE OVER THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLANDS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE
WILL ENHANCE THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT
ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE RIDGE PATTERN ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN A GENERALLY A
FAIR WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE ISLANDS THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER...
THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT WEST INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO IN
RESPONSE TO THE AMPLIFYING TROUGH/LOW OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
THE ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL WEAKEN THROUGH TONIGHT...
ALLOWING MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY...AS MODELS SUGGEST SEVERAL
BANDS OF MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION. THE BEST UPPER
DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY NORTH OF THE REGION...THUS IT DOES NOT
APPEAR THAT THE REGION WILL GET SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVER NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. OVERALL...EXPECTING MAINLY SHALLOW CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY INDUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG NORTHERN COASTS OF
PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI AT NIGHT AND EARLY IN THE MORNING. ALSO...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON
FROM TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THEN...DRYING EXPECTED BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE MAINLY EAST AT 10 TO
15 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS OF AROUND 15 KT AND SEAS OF 4-6 FEET WILL PREVAIL
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER...A MODERATE NORTH SWELL WILL
INVADE THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY AND MONDAY.
THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS ARE URGED TO EXERCISE CAUTION
ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS. A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS
FORECAST FOR TODAY AS THIS MODERATE NORTHERLY SWELL WILL INCREASE
THE BREAKING WAVE HIGH UP TO 7 FEET ALONG THE NORTH COASTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 74 85 73 / 20 30 30 10
STT 84 73 83 73 / 20 40 40 10

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Mar 16, 2015 4:26:59 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Mar 16, 2015 4:26:59 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
519 AM AST MON MAR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHILE AMPLIFIES INTO
THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES AWAY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...RIDGE ALOFT WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST
AND HOLD THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE NORTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING. LIGHT PASSING
SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...WITH SOME OF THEM
AFFECTING LAND AREAS. WINDS WERE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

THE LOCAL ISLANDS WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AMPLIFYING
MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TODAY AND
TOMORROW. THIS FEATURE WILL INTERACT WITH PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADES AND LOCAL EFFECTS TO PRODUCE
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. UNDER
THE PREVAILING EASTERLY WIND FLOW...EXPECT PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS
U.S.V.I. AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO FROM TIME TO TIME...WITH SHOWERS
DEVELOPING OVER AND WEST OF THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL IN THE AFTERNOON.
STEERING FLOW WILL BE RATHER WEAK AT 5-KT OR LESS AND SUPPORT VERY
SLOW MOVING CELLS. THE AFOREMENTIONED PATTERN IS EXPECTED MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.

AS TROUGH ALOFT MOVES AWAY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...RIDGE WILL
BUILD FROM THE WEST AND HOLD THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. UNDER
RIDGE ALOFT AND PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL VALUES...
A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH A FEW TRADE
WIND SHOWERS POSSIBLE EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS ALL
TAF SITES WITH BRIEF -SHRA CAUSING VCSH BEFORE 16/14Z. CIGS AT
AROUND FL050 ARE EXPECTED AT TNCM/TKPK UNTIL AROUND 16/12Z. AFTER
16/16Z...MTN OBSC AND SHRA EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND
WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE EAST AT 10 TO
15 KTS WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AFTER 16/13Z.

&&

.MARINE...EXPECT SUBSIDING NORTH SWELLS WITH SEAS UP TO 7 FEET
THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN 10-15 KT MOST OF THE 5-DAY FCST
PERIOD AND SUPPORT 3-5 FT SEAS TONIGHT THRU FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 73 85 73 / 20 10 20 20
STT 85 74 85 74 / 20 10 20 20

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Mar 17, 2015 4:15:39 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Mar 17, 2015 4:15:39 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
442 AM AST TUE MAR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST AS
TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SHIFTS FURTHER EAST TOWARD THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC. RIDGE ALOFT WILL HOLD WEDNESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A BRIEF WEAKENING EXPECTED FRIDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES CLOSE TO THE FORECAST AREA. WEAK COLD FRONT
NORTH OF THE AREA WILL DISSIPATE BY WEDNESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY AND PREVAIL THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING. LIGHT PASSING
SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...WITH SOME OF THEM
AFFECTING USVI AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO. WINDS OVER LAND WERE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE.

A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH
SHIFTS FURTHER EAST AND A RIDGE PATTERN ESTABLISHES ACROSS THE
AREA. ALTHOUGH PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS FROM TIME
TO TIME...WITH LIMITED AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER AND WEST OF THE
CORDILLERA ARE STILL EXPECTED EACH DAY. A BRIEF WEAKENING OF RIDGE
ALOFT IS ANTICIPATED ON FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
CLOSE TO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL ENHANCE THE WEATHER PATTERN
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY
THURSDAY/FRIDAY. LATE FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...UNDER RIDGE
ALOFT AND BELOW TO NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER...LIMITED SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING
AREA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH ISOLD -SHRA. AFTER 17/16Z...LOW
LEVEL CLOUDINESS WITH ISOLD TO SCT SHRA ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVER THE MOUNTAIN RANGES INTO SW-PR CAUSING MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS...AFFECTING THE VICINITY OF TJMZ AND TJPS. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...STRENGTHENING AFTER 17/12Z FROM THE E-NE AT 10 TO 15 KT
WITH BRIEF GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS 10-15 KT AND SEAS 2-5 FT MOST OF THE 5-DY FCST PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 73 85 73 / 20 10 20 30
STT 85 74 85 74 / 20 30 30 40

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Mar 18, 2015 4:46:22 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Mar 18, 2015 4:46:22 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
605 AM AST WED MAR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK COLD FRONT NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA AND INTO THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE TODAY. THERE IS A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THAT IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS UNTIL FRIDAY. UPPER
TROUGH EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS TO EAST OF THE
LOCAL ISLANDS ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED BRIEF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS IN THE MORNING THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS SEVERAL
SECTIONS OF THE EAST AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF PR AS WELL AS THE
USVI. THESE EXPECTED SHOWERS SHOULD NOT BE BIG RAIN
PRODUCERS...MAINLY SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE GENERALLY AROUND 10-15 MPH FROM THE EAST DUE TO THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA.

SIMILAR STORY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH PATCHES OF MOISTURE
MOVING IN CAUSING BRIEF SHOWERS AND SOME CONVECTION IN THE
AFTERNOONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF PR BUT NOTHING TOO SIGNIFICANT...AND
WITH THE ATMOSPHERE BEING STABLE...THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED...MAINLY SOME RAIN...AND NOT A WHOLE LOT OF ACCUMULATION
EITHER.

TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL WITH A FEW EXCEPTIONS WHEN A PATCH OF MOISTURE MOVES
IN...THIS IS PARTICULARLY TRUE ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHEN THE GFS
MODEL INDICATES AN AREA OF HIGHER THAN NORMAL MOISTURE ACROSS
WESTERN PR. OTHERWISE WE SHOULD EXPECT THE TYPICAL MARCH WEATHER
WITH BRIEF SHOWERS AND PLEASANT TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH PASSING SHOWERS IN AND AROUND ISX. AFTER
18/16Z...MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE AT JMZ IN SHRA. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...STRENGTHENING
AFTER 18/12Z FROM THE E-SE AT 10 TO 15 KT WITH BRIEF GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...NORTH SWELL IS EXPECTED TO INVADE THE LOCAL WATERS TODAY
AND CAUSE SEAS TO BECOME HAZARDOUS LATE THIS MORNING AND THROUGH
TONIGHT. BUOY 41043 TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA IS REPORTING
SEAS OF 7-8 FEET WITH A NORTH SWELL. AFTER CALCULATING THE SWELL
DECAY...SEAS COULD GO UP TO 7 FEET ACROSS THE ATLANTIC OFFSHORE
AND NEAR-SHORE WATERS AS WELL AS THE THE ANEGADA PASSAGE. IT CANNOT
BE RULED OUT FOR THE WATERS TO THE NW OF PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS
THE MONA PASSAGE MAY OBSERVE SEAS OF 7 FEET. HOWEVER GIVEN THAT
THIS IS A BORDERLINE SITUATION THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS KEPT
TO THE AREAS OF HIGHER CONFIDENCE. THE WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE
MONITORED IN THE NEAR-SHORE AND OFFSHORE WATERS AND THE APPROPRIATE
CHANGES...IF ANY...WILL BE MADE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 73 85 73 / 20 40 20 20
STT 84 74 85 74 / 30 40 20 20

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Mar 19, 2015 5:03:04 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Mar 19, 2015 5:03:04 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
629 AM AST THU MAR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STAY OVER
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH SATURDAY.THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS JUST NORTH OF
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA...BUT WILL BECOME WEAKER OVER THE
WEEKEND. PATCHES OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WITH THE
TRADE WIND FLOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME OF THOSE SHOWERS AFFECTED
THE USVI. THIS IS DUE TO AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE MOVING
THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA TODAY. THIS MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
OVER THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE DAY...WHICH WILL HELP IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF PR WHILE THE REST OF THE LOCAL
AREA OBSERVED ISOLATED PASSING SHOWERS. BECAUSE OF THE HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT CAUSING SUBSIDENCE...MOST IF NOT ALL OF THESE
SHOWERS SHOULD BE LIGHT TO MODERATE AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

RELATIVE FAIR WEATHER PATTERN WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. PATCHES OF MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SO PASSING SHOWERS AT NIGHT AND
EARLY IN THE MORNING WHILE AFTERNOON SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP DUE TO
OROGRAPHIC LIFTING AND AREAS OF SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE. IN THE
VERY LONG RANGE...GFS MODEL BRINGS A COLD FRONT CLOSE TO THE
LOCAL AREA...WHICH WOULD BRING CLOUDS AND SOME RAIN FOR THE END OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE FORECAST
PERIOD..WITH -SHRA POSSIBLE AT JSJ THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING.
SHRA DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED OVER AND WEST OF THE CORDILLERA LATER
TODAY...THIS MAY CAUSE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN AND AROUND JMZ AND
JBQ BETWEEN 19/16Z AND 19/22Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...STRENGTHENING AFTER 19/12Z FROM
THE E-SE AT 10 TO 15 KT WITH BRIEF GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...BUOY 41053 JUST NORTH OF SAN JUAN IS NOW REPORTING WAVE
HEIGHTS OF UNDER 5 FEET AND BUOY 41043 TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL
WATERS IS NOE REPORTING SEAS AT OR JUST BELOW 6 FEET. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE ATLANTIC WATERS LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT DUE TO SWELL FROM ANOTHER SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LEAVING THE NORTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 74 86 74 / 20 20 20 20
STT 85 73 85 74 / 20 20 20 20

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Mar 20, 2015 4:17:09 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Mar 20, 2015 4:17:09 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
429 AM AST FRI MAR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
EARLY TONIGHT. FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVR THE REGION
SAT THROUGH TUE. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA NEXT THU.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A SHORTWAVE-TROUGH CURRENTLY APPROACHING 70W PER
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL AMPLIFY SWD NEXT 12 HRS AND MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. WATER VAPOR ANIMATION SHOWS MID-LEVEL
DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE OVER THE LOCAL AREA HAS DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY
SINCE 24 HRS AGO. THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO DEEPEN WITH SCT
SHOWERS FORMING OVR SW PR ON A NE STEERING FLOW. HEIGHT RISES
ALOFT INDICATED SAT THROUGH TUE WILL RESULT IN SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION TO STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT LIMITING AREAL CVRG OF SHOWERS
BUT SEA BREEZE RELATED CONVECTION STILL POSSIBLE. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE FCST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA NEXT THU. MODELS
INDICATE A BIT BETTER MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS. NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION WX HAZARDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. LLVL EAST WINDS AT 10-15 KT...WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN
SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AFTER 15Z.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATE FRI NIGHT TO 10-15 KT. NORTH
SWELLS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. SWELL DECAY FROM
BUOY 41049 MIDWAY BETWEEN PR AND BERMUDA INDICATES 8-9 FT SWELLS
AT 16-17 SECS WILL BE ARRIVING INTO OUR ATLC COASTAL WATERS. SCA
AND HIGH SURF CONDITIONS LIKELY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR REGIONAL
BUOYS CLOSELY FOR THE NEED OF ADVISORIES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 74 86 75 / 10 10 10 20
STT 85 75 85 74 / 10 10 10 20

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Mar 21, 2015 4:18:37 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Mar 21, 2015 4:18:37 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
355 AM AST SAT MAR 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD THROUGH TUE. A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THU. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOW EAST OF 60W WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION WITH STEADY HEIGHT RISES
EXPECTED OVER THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH TUE. THIS WILL PROMOTE SOME
DRYING AND STRENGTHEN THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SOMEWHAT ESPECIALLY
SUN AND MON. NEXT SHORTWAVE-TROUGH WILL EXIT THE SOUTHEAST COAST
MON NIGHT AND WEAKEN RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
SOMEWHAT. MAIN SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL REMAIN FAR NORTH OF THE AREA
BUT WEAK HEIGHT FALLS WILL PROMOTE SOME MOISTURE TRANSPORT TUE
AND TUE NIGHT WITH SCT SHOWERS TUE OVR NW PR AS SFC WINDS VEER TO
THE SOUTHEAST. RAPID DRYING EXPECTED WED AND THU AS TROUGH AXIS
SHIFTS EAST. OVERALL...MAINLY DRY WX PATTERN EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
WITH ISOLD TO LOCALLY SCT SEA BREEZE RELATED CONVECTION EACH DAY
AS SFC WINDS REMAIN AROUND 10-KT OR LESS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS
DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH ISOLD -SHRA AROUND THE LOCAL
ISLANDS...CAUSING VCSH THROUGH AROUND 16Z. AFTER 16Z...SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND INTO SW-PR. THIS WILL
CAUSE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN AND AROUND
TJMZ/TJPS...MAINLY BETWEEN 21/18-23Z. EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS AT 10
TO 15 KT WITH BRIEF GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...SFC WINDS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO AROUND 10KT LATER TODAY
AND REMAIN LIKE THAT THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK. WINDS STRENGTHEN
SOMEWHAT TO 15KT THU-SAT. NORTH SWELLS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE
TONIGHT. WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF ON SCA THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 76 86 76 / 20 20 20 10
STT 85 76 85 76 / 20 20 20 10

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Mar 22, 2015 4:17:11 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Mar 22, 2015 4:17:11 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
421 AM AST SUN MAR 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD THROUGH TUE. A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MID WEEK. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD THU NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HEIGHT RISES NEXT 24 HRS WILL LEAD TO SOME DRYING
TODAY AND TONIGHT. LOW-LEVEL WINDS VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST MON AND
TUE RESULTING IN MOISTURE ADVECTION AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES
WITH POSSIBLE RECORD HIGHS TUE. SCT SHOWERS EXPECTED OVR NW PR
MON-TUE UNDER A SE STEERING FLOW. MID-LEVEL DRYING EXPECTED TUE
NIGHT THRU WED EVENING. A TROUGH WILL MOVE BETWEEN 70W AND 50W
LATE WED THROUGH THU MORNING BUT MAIN ENERGY WILL REMAIN FAR NORTH
WITH LITTLE EFFECTS OVR PR. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVR THE BAHAMAS
SHIFTS EAST AND AMPLIFIES FRI THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK LEADING TO
SIG DRYING OVR THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS AT ALL TAF SITES NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTER
22/17Z...ISOLD SHOWERS PSBL OVR W INTERIOR AND SW PR TIL 22/22Z.
THIS MAY LEAD TO BRIEF PRDS OF MVFR CONDS IN AND AROUND TJMZ/TJPS.
WND FM E-NE A 10-15 KTS BLO FL100...BCMG FM N AND INCR W/HT ABV TO
MAX NR 50 KTS AT FL350.

&&

.MARINE...SFC WINDS AROUND 10-KT THROUGH WED STRENGTHENING TO
15-KT THU AND FRI. SEAS DIMINISHING 2-4 FT THEN BUILDING 3-5 FT
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 75 88 75 / 0 0 10 10
STT 85 74 85 74 / 0 20 20 10

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Puerto Rico Weather

Post by cycloneye on Mar 8, 2015 4:15:48 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Mar 9, 2015 4:21:01 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Mar 10, 2015 4:13:56 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Mar 11, 2015 4:27:27 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Mar 12, 2015 4:18:43 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Mar 13, 2015 4:17:34 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Mar 14, 2015 4:41:04 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Mar 15, 2015 4:41:23 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Mar 16, 2015 4:26:59 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Mar 17, 2015 4:15:39 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Mar 18, 2015 4:46:22 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Mar 19, 2015 5:03:04 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Mar 20, 2015 4:17:09 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Mar 21, 2015 4:18:37 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Mar 22, 2015 4:17:11 GMT -6

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