Puerto Rico Weather

NEW

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Aug 16, 2015 4:30:39 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Aug 16, 2015 4:30:39 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR

533 AM AST SUN AUG 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NORTHWEST OF PUERTO RICO WILL MOVE

SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH TUESDAY. A

TROPICAL ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE WILL MOVE WESTWARD OVER

HISPANIOLA TODAY. A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS BEHIND THE TROPICAL

WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED

THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR INDICATED SCATTERED SHOWERS

AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF

PUERTO RICO THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE

TRAILING MOISTURE OF A TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE. THE

WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD OVER HISPANIOLA TODAY.

HOWEVER...THE WAVE IS ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS

AND SHOWERS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NORTHWEST OF THE REGION IS

EXPECTED TO ENHANCE THE SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE REGION TODAY. THE

GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SOME MOISTURE WILL LINGER OVER

THE LOCAL ISLANDS UNTIL MONDAY. IN FACTS...PWAT VALUES OVER 2.00

INCHES...IN SOME INSTANCES UP TO 2.20...ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND

TONIGHT. THESE PWAT VALUES ARE CONDUCIVE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION FOR THE NEXT

12 TO 24 HOURS. MOISTURE WILL DECREASE TO NORMAL VALUES BY MID

WEEK WITH A RETURN TO A TYPICAL AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN AND INTERIOR PUERTO RICO EACH AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WILL APPROACH THE REGION THE NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT SHRA...ISOLD TSRA MAX TOPS NR 400 OVR THE

LOCAL WATERS WITH SOME SHRA OVR THE USVI AND ERN PR TAF SITES TIL

16/14Z. MULTIPLE SCT-BKN CLD LAYERS 020...050..100...250 OVR FLYING

AREA. MTN TOP OBSCR OVR ERN PR. AFT 16/15Z... SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP

OVR THE MTN RANGE OF PR...THEN STEER TOWARDS THE N AND NW COASTAL

SECTIONS...IMPACTING MAINLY TJSJ/TJBQ/TJMZ. OCNL MVFR CONDS THRU THE

PRD DUE TO LOW CLDS AND SHRA/ISOLD TSRA. WNDS BLO 100 FM SSE 15-20

KT...BCMG FM ENE 10-15KTS UP FL200...THEN BACKING AND INCR W/HT ABV.

&&

.MARINE...A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 630

AM AST FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS DUE TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS

PRODUCING HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS. IN GENERAL...SEAS OF 5 FEET

OR LESS AND WINDS UP TO 15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

SJU 90 78 89 78 / 60 30 30 20

STT 87 78 89 78 / 70 30 30 20

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Aug 17, 2015 4:49:35 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Aug 17, 2015 4:49:35 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR

600 AM AST MON AUG 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE WEST

TO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN BY WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN

OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. A WEAK TROUGH WILL RE-DEVELOP

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY FROM THE NORTH NORTHEAST TO OVER

HISPANIOLA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FROM THE EAST OVER THE AREA

FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...GENERALLY HIGH PRESSURE WITH WEAK GRADIENTS WILL

REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE AREA THIS WEEK. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN

TONIGHT...BUT A MOIST PATCH WILL COME FROM THE NORTHEAST ON

WEDNESDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...WEAK TROUGHS FOLLOWED BY MOISTURE WILL MOVE

THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY...THURSDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN ON

SUNDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE EACH TIME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL

CONTINUE IN THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC KEEPING EAST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW

OVER THE AREA AT THE SURFACE. THIS IN TURN WILL KEEP DAILY

AFTERNOON CONVECTION IN WEST AND NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS OVER WATER DEVELOPED A LITTLE OVERNIGHT AND

A FEW PUSHED ONSHORE IN EASTERN PUERTO RICO. OVERALL AMOUNTS WERE

LIGHT THIS MORNING AND SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF OVER

EASTERN PUERTO RICO AS THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS MOVE WEST OVER

ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN WATERS. FEW IF ANY SHOWERS WERE SEEN AROUND

THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. A WEAK PULSE CROSSING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS

THIS MORNING WILL ENHANCE SHOWERS OVER THE INTERIOR DURING THE

MIDDAY HOURS AND IN WESTERN PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON BUT DRIER

AIR WILL FOLLOW. ANOTHER PULSE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON TUESDAY WILL

BRING SHOWERS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. BETTER MOISTURE WITH ANOTHER

TROUGH WILL CROSS THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SOUTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY

THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE

AREA. TRADE WIND FLOW WILL REMAIN GENERALLY EASTERLY WITH A SLIGHT

SOUTHERLY COMPONENT.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS NEAR 30 WEST LONGITUDE. THE NATIONAL

HURRICANE CENTER GIVES IT A 70 PERCENT CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT BY

FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD ENHANCE THE GENERAL TREND OF INCREASING

MOISTURE LATER THIS WEEK WHETHER OR NOT THIS PARTICULAR LOW

DEVELOPS. MODELS ARE BRINING OTHER LOWS OFF AFRICA INTO THE

ATLANTIC LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL

TERMINALS THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS

SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE ACROSS TJBQ/TJMZ AND BRIEF SHRA MAY MOVE ACROSS

TNCM/TKPK AFT 17/17Z. WINDS MAINLY FROM THE E-NE AT 10 TO 20

KNOTS...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...AND SEA BREEZE FORMATION IS EXPECTED

AFTER 17/12Z.

&&

.MARINE...ATLANTIC SEAS WILL GENERALLY FALL TO AROUND 3 FEET AFTER

TODAY. SEAS IN THE CARIBBEAN WILL GENERALLY VARY FROM 3 TO 5 FEET.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THE CULEBRINAS RIVER HAS BEEN PARTICULARLY SLOW

COMING DOWN...BUT SHOULD FALL BELOW THE FLOOD STAGE OF 15 FEET BY

8 AM AST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

SJU 89 78 90 79 / 20 30 20 20

STT 89 78 89 78 / 20 40 20 30

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Aug 18, 2015 4:10:41 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Aug 18, 2015 4:10:41 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR

503 AM AST TUE AUG 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK GRADIENTS

WILL BE THE GENERAL RULE. A WEAK TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE

NORTHEAST FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT HIGH PRESSURE WILL

RIDGE BACK FROM THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEXT WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC

JUST NORTH OF 20 NORTH. THE RIDGE WILL SEE A SLIGHT WEAKNESS FROM

THE NORTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MID LEVELS ARE MOSTLY DRY EXCEPT

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

AT LOW LEVELS...A WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY TODAY

FOLLOWED BY CONSIDERABLE DRYING. ANOTHER WEAK TROPICAL WAVE PASSES

THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PATCHES OF MOISTURE WILL

MOVE THROUGH FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY. A TROPICAL

DISTURBANCE MAY DEVELOP IN THE ATLANTIC IN THE NEXT 120

HOURS...BUT HOWEVER IT DEVELOPS IT IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER PUERTO

RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS NEXT WEDNESDAY WITH THE BEST

MOISTURE OF THE NEXT 10 DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS MOVED OVER THE EASTERN ONE THIRD OF PUERTO

RICO OVERNIGHT LEAVING MORE THAN ONE HALF INCH OF RAIN AT THE SAN

JUAN INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. OTHER SHOWERS WERE SEEN OVER THE

SOUTHEAST COAST AND OVER THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS. ONLY A FEW

SHOWERS PASSED AROUND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. TOPS OF THE

SHOWERS WERE RELATIVELY LOW...GENERALLY UNDER 20 KFT...AND

THUNDERSTORMS WERE NOT SEEN.

DRIER AIR HAS ALREADY BEGUN MOVING IN OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS

AND WILL SPREAD OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO THIS MORNING.

SOME SHOWERS ARE STILL EXPECTED OVER WESTERN PUERTO RICO THIS

AFTERNOON...BUT BY EARLY EVENING ALL THE SHOWERS OVER LAND SHOULD

BE GONE. PATCHES OF MOISTURE WILL BRING MORE SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY

FOLLOWED BY A DRY SLOT AND THEN A MOIST BOUNDARY WILL MOVE OVER

THE AREA FROM THE EAST SOUTHEAST BRINGING AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS

ON THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH MORE DRYING IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY...EASTERN

COASTAL AREAS OF PUERTO RICO WILL LIKELY SEE MORE SHOWERS UNTIL

DRIER AIR SPREADS ACROSS THE ISLAND ON SATURDAY. PATCHES OF

MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE AREA IN TRADE WIND

FLOW SUNDAY THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. A WEAK DISTURBANCE

HAS AN 80 PERCENT CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE

THIS WEEK...ALTHOUGH THE CURRENT GFS RUN DEGRADES IT INTO A

TROPICAL WAVE AGAIN NEXT WEEK AS IT APPROACHES THE AREA.

REGARDLESS OF THE FORM IT TAKES THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BRING THE

BEST MOISTURE OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS AND SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TO THE

AREA ON ITS CURRENT TRAJECTORY.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TERMINALS

THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. SOME PASSING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER

TIST...TISX AND TJSJ...TNCM...TKPK EARLY IN THE MORNING. DURING THE

AFTERNOON HOURS SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS TJBQ/TJMZ AFT 18/17Z.

SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE BELOW 10 KTS THEN MAINLY FROM

THE E-ESE AT 10 TO 15 KTS...WITH HIGHER GUSTS AND SEA BREEZE

VARIATIONS AFTER 18/13Z.

&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE

LOCAL WATERS FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS. SEAS WILL REMAIN AROUND 3 FEET

IN THE ATLANTIC AND BELOW 5 FEET IN THE CARIBBEAN...ALTHOUGH NEAR-

SHORE WATERS ALONG THE NORTH AND SOUTH COASTS WILL HAVE LOCALLY

HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS. SOME MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISKS ARE

EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

SJU 90 78 90 79 / 20 20 20 20

STT 89 77 90 79 / 10 30 30 20

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Aug 19, 2015 4:13:10 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Aug 19, 2015 4:13:10 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR

558 AM AST WED AUG 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY MID-LEVELS AND A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IS

EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT LEAST UNTIL THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE PATTERN

STRENGTHENS FROM THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEASTERN

CARIBBEAN REGION. A SAHARAN AIR LAYER IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE

REGION BETWEEN THURSDAY AND SATURDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS

EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE REGION BY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE

UPCOMING WEEKEND. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE EASTERN

CARIBBEAN BY THURSDAY MOVING OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS BY THE END OF

THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A FEW SHOWERS MOVED OVER THE NORTHEAST...EASTERN AND SOUTHERN

COASTAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO OVERNIGHT. A SURFACE DISTURBANCE

WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE OF SURFACE MOISTURE REACHED THE LOCAL AREA

TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE LOCAL WATERS EARLY IN

THE MORNING. FOR TODAY...MODEL GUIDANCES CONTINUE TO INDICATE DRY

AIR WITH A STRONG MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE...THESE SHOULD KEEP

SHOWER ACTIVITY SHALLOW AND BRIEF ACROSS EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND

THE US VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING THE MORNING HOURS. DURING THE

AFTERNOON HOURS...SURFACE HEATING COMBINED WITH THE LOCAL EFFECTS

AND SURFACE MOISTURE WILL OVERCOME THE EFFECT OF THE MID LEVEL

RIDGE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...

MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLDS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. AS A

RESULT...EXPECT LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH BRIEF PASSING

SHOWERS MAINLY OVER EASTERN PR AND THE US VIRGIN ISLANDS TONIGHT

AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THEN...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED OVER

SECTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN PR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

A SAHARAN AIR LAYER WITH DUST PARTICLES IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER

THE ISLANDS BY THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY TO RESULT IN HAZY SKIES.

ALSO...A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOCAL AREA BY

FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. AS A RESULT A SLIGHT INCREASE IN

SHOWER AND TSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE DURING THE ARRIVAL OF THIS

WAVE.

TROPICAL STORM DANNY. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ABOUT DANNY...AT 5 AM AST IT WAS LOCATED ABOUT

1445 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES AND WAS MOVING WESTWARD AT

NEAR 14 MPH. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION REFER TO THE TCPAT4

PRODUCE BY NHC.

&&

.AVIATION...PASSING SHRA MAY GENERATE BRIEF MVFR DUE TO CIGS AT TNCM

AND TKPK TIL 19/1400. CONDS THERE DRYING AFTERWARD. VFR ELSEWHERE

THROUGH 20/02Z EXCEPT IN WRN PR WHERE DEVLPG SHRA/TSRA AFT 19/16Z

WILL BRING MTN OBSCURATIONS AND BRIEF MVFR/IFR DUE TO

CIGS/VIS...MAINLY TO TJMZ AND BRIEFLY TO TJBQ. SFC WINDS ELY 10 TO

15 KT WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS. WINDS BTWN FL050-100 ESE 10 TO 20

KT. MAX WIND BLO FL540 20 KT NR FL040.

&&

.MARINE...MARINERS CAN EXPECT SEAS OF LESS THAN 4 FT AND EAST

WINDS AT 10-15 KNOTS...LOCALLY HIGHER NEAR SHORE. TRANQUIL MARINE

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNTIL THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE

WHICH IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE POTENTIAL OF SHOWER AND

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAINLY ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA BY THE END

OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

SJU 89 77 91 77 / 20 20 20 20

STT 89 78 90 79 / 20 20 20 40

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Aug 20, 2015 4:15:15 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Aug 20, 2015 4:15:15 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR

515 AM AST THU AUG 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN

DRY MID-LEVELS AND A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ACROSS THE

REGION. A SAHARAN AIR LAYER IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE REGION

TODAY AND CONTINUE UNTIL SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS

EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE REGION BY SATURDAY. A WEAK TROPICAL

WAVE IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY. TROPICAL STORM

DANNY CONTINUES OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH LITTLE OR NO SHOWER

ACTIVITY PREVAILED OVER LAND DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TJSJ

20/00Z SOUNDING DATA AND MODEL GUIDANCE ARE STILL SUGGESTING DRY

MID LEVELS WITH A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION OVER THE REGION.

HOWEVER...AS THE SURFACE MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE TROPICAL WAVE

REACHED THE LOCAL AREA...SHOWER ACTIVITY INCREASED ACROSS THE

ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING. IN ADDITION...

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DENSE LAYER OF SAHARAN DUST TO THE EAST

OF ST CROIX AND ST JOHN. GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED SAHARAN DUST AND

TROPICAL WAVE IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...IT IS

POSSIBLE THAT THE IMPACTS OF THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL WEAKEN ONCE IT

REACHES THE LOCAL AREA. DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...IT IS

POSSIBLE THE MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH LOCAL EFFECTS AND DIURNAL

HEATING...WILL OVERCOME THE EFFECT OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AND THE

SAHARAN DUST TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED

THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF

PUERTO RICO. THE SAHARAN DUST PARTICLES ARE EXPECTED TO STAY OVER

THE ISLANDS UNTIL SUNDAY TO RESULT IN HAZY SKIES WITH LIMITED

SHOWER ACTIVITY.

BASED ON THE LATEST NHC BULLETIN...TROPICAL STORM DANNY IS MOVING

WESTWARD AT NEAR 10 MPH AND A TURN TO THE WEST NORTHWEST WITH NO

CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION REFER TO THE TCPAT4 AND TCDAT4 PRODUCE

BY THE NHC.

&&

.AVIATION...MOISTURE FROM A WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL WAVE IS

BRINGING AREAS OF MVFR CONDS TO TNCM WITH A FEW SHRA. BRIEF MVFR

WILL CONT THRU 21/00Z. MOISTURE WILL REACH TISX AS EARLY AS

29/12Z...BUT EXPECT VFR CONDS TO CONTINUE WITH VCSH. MOISTURE WILL

INCREASE OVER TIST AND PR DURG THE DAY TODAY WITH SCT SHRA AND

ISOL TSRA BEGG 20/17Z. BRIEF MVFR CIGS ARE PSBL AT TJMZ AND TJBQ

WITH MTN OBSCURATIONS...OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH 21/02Z. WINDS AT SFC

TO FL100 ELY 10 TO 20 KT WITH HIR GUSTS AT COAST XCP BTWN

20/16-22Z FROM FL020 TO FL100 ESE TO SE 10 TO 15 KT. MAX WINDS BLO

FL540 15 KT OR LESS THRU 21/02Z.

&&

.MARINE...MARINERS CAN EXPECT SEAS OF 1 TO 4 FEET AND EAST WINDS

AT 10-15 KNOTS. THESE GENERAL TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS WILL

REMAIN UNTIL THE ARRIVAL OF THE TROPICAL WAVE WHICH IS EXPECTED

TO INCREASE THE POTENTIAL OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY

MAINLY ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

SJU 89 77 90 78 / 20 30 40 30

STT 90 80 88 80 / 20 50 50 30

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Aug 21, 2015 4:22:06 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Aug 21, 2015 4:22:06 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
559 AM AST FRI AUG 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY...INCREASING THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
REGION. HURRICANE DANNY WAS LOCATED NEAR 1300 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
PUERTO RICO THIS MORNING AND WILL APPROACH THE LOCAL WATERS MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS OVERNIGHT. SOME SHOWERS WERE NOTED IN THE
VICINITY OF SAINT CROIX AND FEW OTHERS AFFECTED THE EASTERN
MUNICIPALITIES OF PUERTO RICO. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
TODAY. THIS MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL
EFFECTS TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY OVER THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL OF PUERTO RICO.

HURRICANE DANNY WAS LOCATED ROUGHLY AROUND 1300 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
PUERTO RICO THIS MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED
TO NEAR 85 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING
IS POSSIBLE TODAY...BUT DANNY SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN ON SATURDAY.
LATEST NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER OFFICIAL TRACK PUT DANNY AS A
TROPICAL STORM VERY CLOSE TO PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS MONDAY AFTERNOON. STILL TOO FAR IN TIME TO KNOW EXACTLY
WHICH IMPACTS WILL HAVE DANNY OVER THE LOCAL AREA. RESIDENTS AND
VISITORS ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THEW U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DANNY.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS
AFTER 21/12Z... POSSIBLY CAUSING VCSH ACROSS TIST AND TISX.
VCSH/VCTS LIKELY FOR TJMZ AND TJBQ AFTER 21/19Z THROUGH 21/22Z
WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AS SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 4 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 91 78 90 78 / 30 30 30 10
STT 88 80 87 78 / 30 30 30 20

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Aug 22, 2015 4:21:59 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Aug 22, 2015 4:21:59 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR

535 AM AST SAT AUG 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HURRICANE DANNY WAS LOCATED NEAR 1000 MILES EAST

SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN THIS MORNING. HURRICANE DANNY WILL CONTINUE

TO MOVE WEST AROUND 10 MPH AND WILL APPROACH THE LOCAL REGION

MONDAY. AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION

THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SOME PASSING SHOWERS WERE NOTED MAINLY OVER THE

CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS..WITH FEW AFFECTING THE SOUTHEAST AND

SOUTH COASTAL MUNICIPALITIES OF PUERTO RICO. REST OF THE AREA WAS

UNDER CLEAR SKIES. FOR TODAY...AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL COMBINE

WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL EFFECT TO PRODUCE SCATTERED

SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND

NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. FOR SUNDAY...VERY DRY AIR IS

EXPECTED TO ENCOMPASS THE REGION...WITH LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE

INDICATING TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL BE AROUND 1.0 INCHES.

THIS IS WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. THEREFORE

MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH LIMIT SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED SUNDAY.

OUR ATTENTION IS ON HURRICANE DANNY...WHICH WAS LOCATED AT 5 AM

AST NEAR 1000 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN. HURRICANE DANNY

STILL A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE WITH 100 MPH WINDS. LATEST OFFICIAL

INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER INDICATED DANNY

WILL CONTINUE TO ENCOUNTER UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS AS IT MOVES

TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA. AT THIS TIME...THE OFFICIAL TRACK BRINGS

DANNY AS A 60MPH TROPICAL STORM TUESDAY MORNING OVER THE REGION.

BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES WILL LIKELY

BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. UNCERTAINTY

REMAINS HIGH ON HOW STRONG DANNY WILL BE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE

REGION. THEREFORE...RESIDENT AND VISITORS ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND

THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE

PROGRESS OF DANNY.

INTERESTINGLY...AFTER THE PASSAGE OF DANNY...A VERY ACTIVE

TROPICAL WAVE...LOCATED IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC NEAR THE CAPE

VERDE ISLANDS THIS MORNING...IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS

THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND IS EXPECTED TO

APPROACH THE LOCAL REGION THURSDAY THE 28TH. LATEST GUIDANCE

SUGGEST THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING ALSO A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN

MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION...BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND

LASTING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...STILL TOO EARLY TO KNOW

WHICH EFFECTS...IF ANY...THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE OVER THE LOCAL

REGION. STAY TUNED TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN FOR

THE LATEST INFORMATION ON DANNY AND THE TROPICAL WAVE BEHIND IT.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL

FLYING AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS THIS

MORNING WILL RESULT IN SOME VCSH ACROSS TIST AND TISX. VCTS LIKELY

AT TJMZ AND TJBQ BETWEEN 19Z-22Z WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AS

SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPS ACROSS THE INTERIOR...WEST AND NORTHWEST PUERTO

RICO. SFC WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10-15 KT.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 4 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED

OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

SJU 90 77 90 80 / 20 10 20 30

STT 88 79 89 79 / 30 20 20 40

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Aug 23, 2015 5:04:44 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Aug 23, 2015 5:04:44 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
635 AM AST SUN AUG 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL STORM DANNY WAS LOCATED NEAR 700 MILES EAST
SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO THIS MORNING. DANNY IS EXPECTED TO PASS
AS A TROPICAL DEPRESION OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
A VERY STRONG TROPICAL WAVE WILL FOLLOW DANNY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...TROPICAL STORM DANNY WAS LOCATED THIS MORNING AROUND
700 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO THIS MORNING. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 50 MPH. IN THE CURRENT FORECAST FROM THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...DANNY IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER PUERTO
RICO AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AS
FORECAST TRACK HAS SHIFTED TO THE SOUTH...AND NOW DANNY IS
EXPECTED TO PASS SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS...A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED BEGINNING ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

AFTER THE PASSAGE OF DANNY THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA...A SMALL BREAK
IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED. FOR THURSDAY...A
VERY STRONG TROPICAL WAVE...CURRENTLY LOCATED IN THE FAR EASTERN
ATLANTIC...IS EXPECTED BY COMPUTER MODELS TO APPROACH THE LOCAL
AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS ACCOMPANY BY A EXTENSE
AREA OF MOISTURE. AT THIS TIME...IS TOO EARLY TO KNOW HOW THIS
SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE LOCAL REGION. HOWEVER...A WET PATTERN IS IN
STORE FOR THE LOCAL REGION THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL
RESULT IN SOME VCSH ACROSS TIST AND TISX. VCTS LIKELY AT TJMZ AND
TJBQ BETWEEN 19Z-22Z WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AS SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE INTERIOR...WEST AND NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO. SFC
WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10-15 KT.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 4 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 78 88 79 / 20 30 40 60
STT 89 79 89 79 / 20 40 40 60

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Aug 25, 2015 4:41:05 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Aug 25, 2015 4:41:05 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
539 AM AST TUE AUG 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DANNY WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TODAY. AS A RESULT...UNSETTLED WEATHER
IS LIKELY TO PREVAIL ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.VIRGIN ISLANDS
THOUGH THIS EVENING. THE RECENTLY FORMED TROPICAL STORM ERIKA IS
FORECAST TO REACH THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN REGION BETWEEN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. THIS CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BRING ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS BETWEEN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE PRECIPITABLE WATER ANALYSIS SHOWED A VERY
MOIST AIR MASS OVER THE USVI AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT HAVE COMBINED WITH GOOD VORTICITY
ADVECTION TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
REGIONAL WATERS AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF USVI AND THE EASTERN PR THIS
MORNING. THE REMNANTS OF DANNY WILL CONTINUE TO INTERACT WITH THE
ISLAND TERRAIN TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THE
REST OF TODAY. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 2-4 INCHES
WITH THE REMNANTS OF DANNY. THE MAX RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED
OVER EASTERN PR...WITH A SECONDARY MAXIMA LIKELY OVER WEST AND NORTHWEST
PR THIS AFTERNOON.

A RECENTLY FORMED TROPICAL STORM FOUR LOCATED MORE THAN 800 MILES
EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IS FORECAST TO REACH THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN ON THURSDAY MORNING. THE IMPACTS FOR OUR AREA WILL DEPEND
GREATLY ON THE PATH OF THE CYCLONE...THEREFORE IMPACTS REMAIN UNCLEAR
AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL REACH THE LOCAL REGION BETWEEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY. THEREFORE...WE WILL CLOSELY MONITOR THE EVOLUTION
OF ERIKA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR OR EVEN IFR EXPECTED AT...TIST...
TISX AND TJSJ THRU AT LEAST 25/16Z. AS REMNANTS OF DANNY CONTINUE
TO MOVE WEST...TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS AND BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS WILL
SPREAD WESTWARD FROM THE USVI TO THE EASTERN HALF OF PR TERMINALS
THROUGH AT LEAST 25/22Z. LOW LEVEL EASTERLIES WINDS WILL CONTINUE
AT 15 TO 25 KT...AS REMNANTS OF DANNY PASSES NEAR THE USVI AND
SOUTHERN PR. SEVERAL BKN/OVC LAYERS BLO FL200 AND SHRA/TSRA
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REST OF THE FLYING AREA OF PR THRU
THE END OF THE FCST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE OVER THE CARIBBEAN COASTAL
WATERS WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-25 KNOTS AND SEAS OF 5-7 FEET ARE
LIKELY THROUGH THIS EVENING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT
FOR THE CARIBBEAN WATERS AND MONA PASSAGE. ELSEWHERE...WINDS OF 15-20
KT AND SEAS OF 4-6 FEET ARE EXPECTED. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION...ESPECIALLY NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 78 89 80 / 60 30 30 60
STT 88 80 90 77 / 60 30 30 60

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Aug 28, 2015 4:54:48 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Aug 28, 2015 4:54:48 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
555 AM AST MON AUG 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL CYCLONE DANNY LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS...IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL CARIBBEAN WATERS
LATER TODAY AND TUESDAY. AS A RESULT...WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE RAPIDLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE USVI AND PR. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE SLIGHTLY ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...IS
EXPECTED TO BRING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS BETWEEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST FORECAST FROM THE NHC SUGGEST THAT TROPICAL
CYCLONE DANNY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL CARIBBEAN WATERS TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...AN EXTREMELY MOIST AIR MASS WILL
SPREAD OVER USVI AND PR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...RAISED THE THREAT
OF HEAVY RAIN...THUNDERSTORMS AND FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
LOCAL ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH...DANNY IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION WHEN IT MOVES OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS...EXPECT PERIODS
OF INTENSE RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS STARTING TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. DANNY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 2 TO 4 INCHES
OF RAIN OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO THROUGH TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...STRONG OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT OF RAINFALL CAN BE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE...LEADING TO HIGHER RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
IN LOCALIZED AREAS.

MID-LONG TERM...LARGE AREA OF HIGH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REACH THE LOCAL ISLANDS BETWEEN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. BUT FOR NOW WILL STAY
FOCUSED MAINLY ON DANNY.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST TAF SITES
THROUGH 24/17Z. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER TNCM AND TKPK
FROM 24/14Z THROUGH AT LEAST 24/23Z IN +TSRA. SHOWERS WITH
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS FROM 24/18Z THROUGH AT LEAST 25/02Z. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
CONTINUE MAINLY EAST SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KTSA INCREASING TO 20 TO
25 KTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE LATER TODAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED DUE ROUGH SEAS OF AROUND
6-8 FEET. LOCALLY HIGHER WAVES UP TO 10 FEET CAN BE POSSIBLE LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 80 88 80 / 30 90 60 30
STT 83 81 82 81 / 40 90 60 40

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Aug 30, 2015 4:31:11 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Aug 30, 2015 4:31:11 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR

604 AM AST SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL WAVE MOVING IN THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA TODAY.

DRIER AIR FOR MONDAY THEN ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE MOVE IN LATE

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. RELATIVELY DRY AIR EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY

THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH

OF THE LOCAL AREA WILL KEEP MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS THROUGH

WEDNESDAY...THEN WINDS WILL RELAX FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE IS BRINGING SCATTERED

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE LOCAL AREA...MAINLY

AFFECTING THE LOCAL WATERS...USVI...AND THE EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO

RICO. THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE

EARLY PART OF THE MORNING...IMPROVING A LITTLE IN THE LATE MORNING

BEFORE CONVECTION STARTS IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND

WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR.

THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE LOCAL AREA BY THIS

EVENING...BUT SOME LINGERING MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA.

IT SHOULD DRY UP A LITTLE ON MONDAY WITH SOME SAHARAN DUST MOVING

IN...BEFORE ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE MOVES IN ON TUESDAY WITH SOME

MOISTURE LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WAVE WILL ALSO BRING SOME

GOOD MOISTURE WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ON

TUESDAY.

AFTER THE MOISTURE LEAVES LATE WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL BE LESS

AVAILABLE MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA AND NO REAL UPPER LEVEL

DYNAMICS TO SPEAK OF. AN UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS BUT IT IS TO THE

EAST OF OUR LOCAL AREA...CAUSING SUBSIDENCE OVER THE LOCAL AREA.

OTHER THAN MAYBE SOME LOCALLY INDUCED SHOWERS...THERE IS LITTLE IN

THE FORM OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKING FEATURES OBSERVED IN THE

EXTENDED FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH PASSING TROPICAL WAVE WILL

CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY. MOSTLY VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED

AT ALL TAF SITES WITH SHRA POSSIBLE AT JSJ/IST AND ISX THROUGH

30/15Z. MVFR CONDS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS EXPECTED AT JMZ AND

JBQ BETWEEN 30/17Z AND 30/21Z IN SHRA/TSRA. EASTERLY WINDS 15 TO

20 KNOTS WITH SOME SEE BREEZE VARIATIONS THRU 29/23Z.

&&

.MARINE...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT JOBOS BEACH IN

ISABELA PUERTO RICO. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION AS

COASTAL WINDS WILL BE 15-20 KNOTS ACROSS SOME AREAS. SEAS WILL BE

MAINLY UP TO 5 FEET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

SJU 89 80 90 79 / 50 20 20 20

STT 89 80 90 80 / 50 30 30 30

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Aug 31, 2015 4:07:19 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Aug 31, 2015 4:07:19 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
515 AM AST MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO
AMPLIFY INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HOLDING
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. MID LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PERSIST NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA
WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS TODAY AND TUESDAY...
BECOMING LIGHT TO GENTLE ON WEDNESDAY. LIGHT TO GENTLE
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. TROPICAL
WAVE NEAR 53W WILL REACH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN LATE TONIGHT AND
INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW SPRINKLES NOTED OVER THE WATERS.
COASTAL TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH
EASTERLY WINDS AT 10 MPH OR LESS.

FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TODAY UNDER LIMITED MOISTURE.
HOWEVER SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER AND WEST OF THE CORDILLERA THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO
LOCAL EFFECT AND DIURNAL HEATING.SOME HAZINESS COULD BE EXPECTED
TODAY DUE TO SAL. A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IS EXPECTED EARLY TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A TROPICAL WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE...NOW LOCATED NEAR 53W... MOVES ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SHORT
LIVED AS TUTT AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY MID WEEK
AND LOCAL ISLANDS REMAINS UNDER ITS CONVERGENT SIDE. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A FAIR AND STABLE WEATHER PATTERN LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
AT LEAST SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THRU THE
FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR CONDS AT JMZ BETWEEN 18Z-22Z
IN SHRA/-TSRA...W/MTN TOP OBSCD OVER WESTERN INTERIOR OF PR. LOW
LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS 10-20 KNOTS. SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AFT 14Z.
SHRA/TSRA WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE FCST PERIOD AS TROPICAL WAVE
ENTERS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...IMPACTING MAINLY THE LEEWARD/USVI
TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS AND WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH MIDWEEK.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO ENTER AND MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BRINGING PERIODS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 91 79 91 79 / 20 50 50 40
STT 90 80 90 79 / 20 50 50 50

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Sept 1, 2015 4:26:10 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Sept 1, 2015 4:26:10 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
446 AM AST TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SOUTH
OVER THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND THEN HOVER NEARBY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
FIRST NORTH OF THE AREA AND THEN MAINLY OVER OR JUST EAST OF THE
AREA. MID LEVELS MOISTEN CONSIDERABLY TONIGHT AND THEN DRY OUT
SLOWLY ON FRIDAY. MID LEVELS ARE GENERALLY DRY THROUGH NEXT
TUESDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON SPREADING SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA. ALTHOUGH A FEW PATCHES OF MOISTURE COME IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND NEITHER STRONG FEATURES NOR DEEP
MOISTURE ARE EXPECTED UNTIL AFTER THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS FELL ACROSS SAINT THOMAS
AND SAINT CROIX LEAVING SEVERAL HUNDREDTHS AND ONE TENTH INCH
RESPECTIVELY. AND...SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO MOVE IN ACROSS
EASTERN PUERTO RICO...WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS MOVING INTO HUMACAO AND
YABUCOA. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE SPORADICALLY ACROSS THE
AREA THIS MORNING AND THEN FORM ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO WITH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. WOULD EXPECT SOME POSSIBILITY FOR GUSTY
WINDS AND LOCAL URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING TODAY. MOISTURE
CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE
VERY HEAVY ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO...THEN...TOMORROW...SHOWERS
WILL BEGIN TAPERING OFF IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND EASTERN
PUERTO RICO...BUT THE BACK OF THE WAVE WILL STILL PRODUCE SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO WEDNESDAY.

ACCORDING TO THE GFS THIS IS THE BEST MOISTURE THAT WILL OCCUR FOR
THE NEXT 10 DAYS. FLOW AT MID LEVELS BECOMES NORTHEAST AROUND HIGH
PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE AREA AND WEAK BANDS OF MOISTURE DO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT OTHERWISE SIGNIFICANT
FEATURES ARE NOT SEEN UNTIL AFTER THE FRIDAY AFTER NEXT...WHEN A
STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IS SEEN APPROACHING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. IT
WILL PROBABLY NOT ARRIVE UNTIL 13 SEPTEMBER AND HAS NOT YET COME
OUT OF AFRICA. SOME AREAS OF SAHARAN DUST WERE SEEN IN THE AREAS
OF DRIER AIR...BUT THE BULK OF THE DUST IS TO MOVE SOUTH OF PUERTO
RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE FLYING AREA
THRU THE FCST PERIOD AS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES OVER THE LOCAL
ISLANDS. MAINLY VFR WITH TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS SPREADING FM
LEEWARD TERMINALS THRU USVI/EASTERN PR TERMINALS BY NOON
AST...THEN OVER THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PR WITH MTN TOPS OBSCD
ALONG ALL MTN RANGES OF MAINLAND PR AFT 01/16Z. EASTERLIES BLO
FL200 AT 10-20 KTS...HIGHER GUSTS NEAR TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS ARE SLOWLY SUBSIDING AND ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE NEXT 5 TO 7 DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 79 91 78 / 60 50 40 20
STT 88 80 88 79 / 60 40 40 10

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Sept 2, 2015 4:22:25 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Sept 2, 2015 4:22:25 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR

542 AM AST WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT WILL LINGER OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE NEXT

SEVERAL DAYS. MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE ISLANDS LATER

TODAY...CONTINUING FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. LINGERING MOISTURE

ASSOCIATED TO A TROPICAL WAVE WILL COMBINE WITH DIURNAL EFFECTS TO

INDUCE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. FAIR WEATHER

CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH AFTERNOON

CONVECTION OVER WESTERN PR.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE OBSERVED OVERNIGHT

MAINLY OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS WITH A FEW OF THEM REACHING PARTS

OF THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND NORTHEASTERN PR.

HOWEVER...THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WAS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. FOR

THE REST OF THE MORNING HOURS THERE IS STILL A CHANCE THE SAME

AREAS EXPERIENCE SOME RAINFALL ACTIVITY...ALTHOUGH NOT SIGNIFICANT

AS MID LEVEL DRY AIR WILL FILTER ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE EAST

LATER TODAY. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WITH HEAVY RAINFALL THAT CAN LEAD TO

URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING THIS AFTERNOON NORTH OF THE

CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND THE SAN JUAN METRO AREA.

AFTER TODAY...FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS TUTT IS

FORECAST TO BE ON ITS UNFAVORABLE SIDE TO ENHANCE CONVECTION AND

THE DUE TO THE INTRUSION OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR. HOWEVER...PASSING

LIGHT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH SECTIONS OF THE USVI AND EASTERN

PUERTO RICO DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH

DIURNAL INDUCED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE INTERIOR

AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH

VCSH/VCTS AT TJSJ THROUGH AROUND 02/11Z. AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL

LIKELY DEVELOP SHRA/TSRA IN AND AROUND TJSJ/TJBQ/TJMZ AFTER

02/16Z...LINGERING TROUGH THE AFTERNOON UNTIL 02/23Z. MVFR CONDS ARE

POSSIBLE AT TJMZ AND TJBQ...MTN OBSCURATIONS ARE LIKELY. WINDS WILL

BE FROM THE EAST TO E-SE AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS TODAY...GUSTY NEAR

SHRA/TSRA. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER 02/23Z.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL REMAIN AT 4 FEET OR LESS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL

DAYS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED

TO PREVAIL THRU THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

SJU 92 79 93 79 / 50 20 10 10

STT 89 81 88 79 / 40 20 10 10

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Sept 3, 2015 4:06:49 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Sept 3, 2015 4:06:49 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
429 AM AST THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT WILL MEANDER OVER AND NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH SUNDAY. BUILDING MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE EAST WILL
BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. LOW LEVEL
PERTURBATIONS EXPECTED TO INCREASE MOISTURE ON LATE SATURDAY/SUNDAY
AND BY MID-WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAILED OVER LAND AREAS OVERNIGHT.
A FEW SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVER THE MONA PASSAGE AND ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS. IN GENERAL...FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
EXPECT SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MAINLY OVER
THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR EACH AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE...MOSTLY DRY AND FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT BETWEEN SATURDAY/SUNDAY MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE GRADUALLY...AND PASSING SHOWERS SHOULD BE MORE FREQUENT
ON SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE USVI AND EASTERN PR...WITH USUAL
CONVECTION ALONG THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND WESTERN PR IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THEN...DRY AND FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK WHEN THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE IS
FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR XPCTD XCP MVFR IN ISOLD/SCT SHRA/TSRA INTERIOR/WEST
PR DURING THU/FRI AFT WI FEW OBSCD MTNS. WIND BLW FL150 VRBL 10 KT
OR LESS BCMG E TO NE UP TO 10 KT LATE TDY THRU FRI.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS MAINLY BELOW 3 FEET AND EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KNOTS EXPECTED THRU FRIDAY. SEAS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE UP TO 4 FEET WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY ACROSS
SOME BEACHES OF NORTHERN PR DUE TO A WEAK NORTHERLY GROUND SWELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 93 78 90 78 / 10 10 10 30
STT 88 78 88 79 / 10 10 10 30

Shoutbox

northshoreelise: not on the 12z... Oct 10, 2024 12:15:21 GMT -6

lencast: Really would appreciate it. Thank you, Lena Sept 27, 2024 5:20:46 GMT -6

lencast: I am in Jacksonville, and trying to drive back to New Orleans. Does anyone here know if the I-10 is passable in Lake City and Tallahassee. Sept 27, 2024 5:19:03 GMT -6

tcane: This sure looks like it dies quickly. maybe falling apart before metro New Orleans? Just looking at the lat dozen posts and images here. Sept 10, 2024 11:26:27 GMT -6

rebekahb-Metairie: Looks like it but I wait for the better trained eyes on the forum to respond. Sept 9, 2024 18:52:32 GMT -6

jdschlum-bedico/village of bo: Look further east than the 12z plots don’t it Sept 9, 2024 18:49:34 GMT -6

SKYSUMMIT: Oh sorry guys! I didn't eve see these new messages down here lol Jul 26, 2024 13:14:47 GMT -6

jenniqtip: Just as soon as* sry fat finger Jul 7, 2024 12:53:35 GMT -6

jenniqtip: I donate every year. 😀ju sry as soon as the first area of interest pops up!! I rarely post though so the tag isn’t necessary. Just know I appreciate everything you do!! Jul 7, 2024 12:53:12 GMT -6

larcat: SKYSUMMIT You can slap one on me

Jul 7, 2024 12:12:03 GMT -6

SKYSUMMIT: Thanks laismyhome ! Also, if there is anyone who has donated that has not been given the Supporter tag, please let us know. Jul 7, 2024 4:00:50 GMT -6

laismyhome: Here's a friendly reminder to go make a donation to support this forum that is so full of valuable reliable info. Link to donate is on homepage Jul 2, 2024 9:55:24 GMT -6

Deleted: Ernesto gonna mog hard.
I'm voting Alberto, Ernesto, Rafael and Deshawn Apr 1, 2024 19:15:21 GMT -6

SKYSUMMIT: ShanaBanana Yes...just click the link and then send a PM to either TIgergirl or myself. I can then shoot her a text letting her know and I'll add your supporter tag. THANK YOU!!!! Sept 23, 2023 16:08:37 GMT -6

ShanaBanana: At the risk of this being a dumb question. In order to donate, do I follow the instructions when I click “donate”, and then message tigergirl? I see people comment here that they donated, so I wasn’t sure if that had changed. Sept 20, 2023 10:54:40 GMT -6

SKYSUMMIT: Great to have you back! Sept 11, 2023 12:20:30 GMT -6

virginialee: Hi Skysummit: I was part of this back at the beginning. So happy to be back. Sept 8, 2023 5:08:12 GMT -6

SKYSUMMIT: Thanks to everyone who has recently donated! If I missed anyone and you still need a Supporter Tag, let me know. Sept 7, 2023 13:20:10 GMT -6

akeller11: Just donated Sept 6, 2023 11:11:36 GMT -6

SKYSUMMIT: Thanks guys and gals! You're very much appreciated! Aug 30, 2023 11:48:38 GMT -6

Puerto Rico Weather

Post by cycloneye on Aug 16, 2015 4:30:39 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Aug 17, 2015 4:49:35 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Aug 18, 2015 4:10:41 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Aug 19, 2015 4:13:10 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Aug 20, 2015 4:15:15 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Aug 21, 2015 4:22:06 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Aug 22, 2015 4:21:59 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Aug 23, 2015 5:04:44 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Aug 25, 2015 4:41:05 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Aug 28, 2015 4:54:48 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Aug 30, 2015 4:31:11 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Aug 31, 2015 4:07:19 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Sept 1, 2015 4:26:10 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Sept 2, 2015 4:22:25 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Sept 3, 2015 4:06:49 GMT -6

Shoutbox

Welcome All Members & Guests

Supporter Us & Donate for the 2024 Season

Hurricane Season 2024

Tropical Outlook

Regional Radars

Today's Convective Outlook

Today's Weather

Watches and Warnings