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cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Sept 4, 2015 4:35:52 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Sept 4, 2015 4:35:52 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
558 AM AST FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT LOW OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. A
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL
SHIFT SLOWLY WESTWARD THROUGH SATURDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. AN AMPLIFYING POLAR TROUGH
WILL EXIT THE EASTERN SEABOARD OF THE UNITED STATES AND SPREAD
EASTWARD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS IN TURN WILL ERODE THE
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WEST AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC NORTH OF THE REGION.
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE
TO LIFT NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA TO MAINTAIN A LIGHT EASTERLY
TRADE WINDS TODAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MID TO UPPER LEVEL TUTT LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THE CAP INVERSION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
BETTER LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AND MIXING AS WELL AS BETTER SEA
BREEZE CONVERGENCE TODAY AND SATURDAY. AVAILABLE MOISTURE ACROSS
THE REGION...ALONG WITH LOCAL AND DIURNAL EFFECTS WILL AID IN
AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF PUERTO
RICO. SOME ENHANCED CONVECTION WILL AGAIN REMAIN POSSIBLE TODAY
MAINLY OVER THE PORTIONS OF WESTERN PUERTO RICO. HOWEVER...THE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS INTENSE AS THE
PREVIOUS DAY...AS THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
VORTICITY MAXIMA IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT FARTHER WEST ACROSS THE MONA
PASSAGES BY MID DAY TODAY.

THE TUTT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT FARTHER WEST OF THE ISLANDS WHILE
WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AS THIS FEATURE WEAKENS...MID TO
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...
AND HOLD THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A WEAK TROPICAL
WAVE IS STILL FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY OR MONDAY...
BUT NO SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ADVECTION OR UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS SUGGESTED
AT THIS TIME. DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ANOTHER
ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE REGION. THIS FEATURE
HOWEVER IS STILL SOME WAYS OUT...SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR AND SEE HOLD
IT UNFOLDS AND THE MODEL GUIDANCE ADJUSTS WITH TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA THROUGH 04/16Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH
04/13Z...BECOMING EASTERLY WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS THEREAFTER.
+TSRA EXPECTED ACROSS INTERIOR AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO...AFTER 04/16Z WHICH WILL CAUSE MTN OBSCURATIONS AND LIKELY
AFFECT TJBQ AND TJMZ. VICINITY SHRA/TSRA ACROSS TJSJ AND TJBQ.
WEATHER CONDITIONS IMPROVING AFTER 04/23Z...LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS
AND LIGHT WINDS ONCE AGAIN

&&

.MARINE...LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS OF LESS THAN 15 KNOTS TODAY WITH
SEAS OF 3 FEET OR LESS. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE NO MARINE PRECAUTIONARY
STATEMENTS OR ADVISORIES IN EFFECT AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 92 79 91 79 / 20 30 30 30
STT 89 80 89 79 / 20 40 40 30

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Sept 5, 2015 4:05:04 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Sept 5, 2015 4:05:04 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
449 AM AST SAT SEP 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT WESTWARD
FROM ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC AND DISPLACE THE TUTT WHICH WILL
MOVE FARTHER WEST OF THE REGION. ASSOCIATED TUTT LOW WILL CONTINUE
TO LIFT WEST NORTHWEST WHILE WEAKENING. A TUTT INDUCED LOW LEVEL
TROUGH WITH AXIS NOW CROSSING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE
WESTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE REST OF THE DAY. NO
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE WAS NOTED ACCOMPANYING THIS FEATURE.
HOWEVER...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR BOTH SUGGEST
SHALLOW MOISTURE AND CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS
AND BRUSHING PART OF THE COASTAL AREAS THIS MORNING.

ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE WITH AXIS NEAR 57 WEST...WILL ENTER AND
MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
FRAGMENTS OF MOISTURE JUST AHEAD OF AND TRAILING THE WAVE WILL
MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. AT THIS TIME...NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTION IS
ANTICIPATED WITH THIS WAVE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FAIRLY LIGHT EASTERLY TRADES ARE TO PERSIST DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL LINGER
NORTH OF THE REGION. THIS IS TO SUPPORT A LOOSE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT
RESULTING IN INCREASING LAND AND SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE. THE APPROACHING
WAVE ALONG WITH MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND DIURNAL EFFECTS WILL GIVE WAY
TO AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND WEST SECTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. PASSING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECTS PARTS OF EASTERN PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS DURING THE REST OF THE MORNING HOURS.

BY SUNDAY...AS THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION EXPECT
ANOTHER QUICK SURGE OF MOISTURE TO AFFECT THE AREA. THIS WILL
AGAIN SUPPORT MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND LOCALLY AND DIURNALLY
INDUCED EARLY MORNING AND AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE ISLANDS. SOME OF THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER PUERTO RICO
MAY BE ENHANCED DURING THE TIME OF MAX HEATING PARTICULARLY IN
THE WEST AND NORTHWEST INTERIOR OF PUERTO RICO.

IMPROVING WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY AT OF NEXT WITH
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALOFT AND THE CAP INVERSION STRENGTHENS ONCE
AGAIN OVER THE AREA....LIMITING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VCSH WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN
SHRA EXPECTED UNTIL 05/14Z ACROSS TNCM...TKPK AND ACROSS THE EASTERN
TAF SITES OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI...TIST...TISX AND TJSJ AS A WEAK
EASTERLY WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FLYING AREA. PERIODS OF SHRA/TSRA
EXPECTED AFTER 05/16Z ACROSS SEVERAL SECTORS IN PR WHICH WILL LIKELY
CAUSE VCTS FOR TJBQ/TJMZ/TJSJ/TJPS...AS WELL AS POSSIBLY AFFECT THE
ACTUAL STATION...CAUSING MVFR COND UNTIL 05/23Z. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY
LGT AND VRB THIS MORNING...BECOMING E-SE AT AROUND 10KT WITH SEA BREEZE
VARIATIONS AFTER 05/14Z.
&&

.MARINE....WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN TRANQUIL BUT
MAY SLIGHTLY INCREASE NEAR ANY CONVECTION ACCOMPANYING THE
EASTERLY WAVE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WFO SAN JUAN PR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 91 79 91 79 / 60 40 40 10
STT 88 80 89 80 / 50 40 40 20

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Sept 6, 2015 4:43:10 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Sept 6, 2015 4:43:10 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
609 AM AST SUN SEP 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS... MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS THE TUTT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND LIFT
NORTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.HOWEVER...NO SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ADVECTION OR CONVECTION WAS ACCOMPANYING THE
WAVE AT THIS TIME. THE UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
EARLY PART OF THE NEXT WEEK AND WILL THEREFORE AID IN LIMITING
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE
WILL ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN LATE WEDNESDAY THEN MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION ON THURSDAY BASED ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR SHOWED A SURGE OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ACCOMPANYING THE WEAK TROPICAL
WAVE. UPPER LEVEL FLOW INDUCED BY THE TUTT WAS ENHANCING SOME OF THE
SHOWERS AS THEY MOVED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND REACHED THE ISLANDS
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO TAPER
OFF BY LATE MORNING LEAVING MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
DURING THE REST OF THE DAY SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AVAILABILITY TO
COMBINE WITH LOCAL AND DIURNAL EFFECTS TO ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON
CONVECTION...MAINLY OVER PARTS OF THE WEST INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. LESSER SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE...DURING THE REST OF THE DAY. RECENT GFS GUIDANCE AND
SAT IMAGERY SUGGEST DRIER AIR MASS EXPECTED TO FILTER IN FORM THE
EAST TRAILING THE AFOREMENTIONED TROPICAL WAVE. GRADUALLY
IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY MONDAY...AND UNTIL THE LATTER PART OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK...WHEN THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE IS
FORECAST. IN THE MEANTIME...LOCALIZED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND
DIURNAL EFFECTS WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION EACH
AFTERNOON WITH BRIEF EARLY MORNING PASSING SHOWERS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS FROM TIME TO TIME. .

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR EXPECTED ACROSS TNCM...TKPK...TIST
AND TISX. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REST OF THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA THRU 06/16Z. AFT 16Z...SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS INTERIOR PUERTO RICO...SPREADING WESTWARD ACROSS WESTERN
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO BY 06/18Z ACROSS TJMZ AND TJBQ WITH MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES...MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. TSRA WILL END BY
06/22Z. WINDS FROM THE SURFACE TO FL160 FROM ESE AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS
EXCEPT FOR LAND AND SEA BREEZE INFLUENCES NEAR SURFACE AFTER
06/13Z.

&&

.MARINE...FAIRLY TRANQUIL SEAS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...
WITH LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE EAST SOUTHEAST TRADE WINDS.
SEAS OF 4 FEET OR LESS EXPECTED TODAY AND WINDS OF 15 KNOTS OR
LESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 92 80 91 80 / 20 20 20 30
STT 90 80 90 81 / 20 30 30 20

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Sept 7, 2015 4:03:21 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Sept 7, 2015 4:03:21 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR

520 AM AST MON SEP 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE

FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY

AMPLIFY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THURSDAY AND

FRIDAY AND HOLD UNTIL THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. WEAK SURFACE HIGH

NORTH OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A MODERATE EASTERLY

WIND FLOW. A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 45 WEST THIS MORNING...WILL MOVE

ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR INDICATED ISOLATED TO

SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AS WELL

AS ACROSS THE SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING. THIS

MOISTURE WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING

OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THIS FEATURE IN COMBINATION WITH DAYTIME

HEATING AND LOCAL EFFECTS WILL INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS

AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN

PORTIONS OF PR...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. AFTER THE

PASSAGE OF THIS SURGE OF MOISTURE AND UNDER A MID TO UPPER LEVEL

RIDGE AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER...A GENERALLY FAIR AND

MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO ENCOMPASS THE REGION

THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 45W THIS MORNING

WILL REACH THE REGION ON THURSDAY...BUT AT THIS MOMENT LOOKS LIKE

THAT THE BULK OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA.

HOWEVER...THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE WILL COMBINE WITH

AMPLIFYING TROUGH TO RESULT IN A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY.

TROPICAL STORM GRACE CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE WEST BUT THE

CONDITIONS WILL BECOME VERY UNFAVORABLE AS IT APPROACHES THE

EASTERN CARIBBEAN. EVEN THOUGH THERE IS CONSIDERABLE

UNCERTAINTY...THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS THE STORM WEAKENING

SIGNIFICANTLY IF NOT DISSIPATING INTO AN OPEN WAVE BY 4 TO 5

DAYS...MAYBE APPROACHING THE LOCAL AREA AS A TROPICAL WAVE ON

LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLD PASSING -SHRA EN ROUTE BTW ISLANDS AND ACROSS

THE FLYING AREA. FEW TCU OVR COASTAL WATERS. OVERALL VFR CONDS WILL

PREVAIL DURG ENTIRE PRD. SOME SHALLOW TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL MOVE

THROUGH THE FCST AREA TIL 07/14Z. EXPECT ONLY BRIEF MTN TOPS OBSCR

OVR PICO DEL ESTE MTN RANGE. AFT 07/17Z SHRA/TSRA FCST TO DVLP WRN

PR XCP N AND S COASTS W/PSBL MVFR CONDS AT TJMZ AND BRIEF MTN TOP

OBSCR OF WRN HALF OF CORDILLERA CENTRAL. VFR AFT AFT 07/22Z. WND BLO

FL200 5 TO 20 KT. SFC WNDS FM E 10-12 KTS OR SO ...XCPT SLIGHTLY

HIGHER W/ LAND/SEA BREEZE INFLUENCES.

&&

.MARINE...A RELATIVELY QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY

WITH SEAS UP TO 4 FEET...INCREASING UP TO 5 FEET BY TONIGHT.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY AT 10 TO AROUND 15 KNOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

SJU 90 80 91 80 / 20 10 10 10

STT 90 81 89 80 / 40 10 10 10

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Sept 8, 2015 3:56:02 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Sept 8, 2015 3:56:02 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
504 AM AST TUE SEP 8 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT
WESTWARD AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND HOLD UNTIL
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN...WILL PASS MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR INDICATED ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AS WELL
AS ACROSS THE SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING. THIS
MOISTURE WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF A TROPICAL WAVE
ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
WESTWARD PASSING WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY. HOWEVER...THIS
FEATURE IN COMBINATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL EFFECTS
WILL INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON.

A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE WILL REACH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THURSDAY.
ALTHOUGH BULK OF MOISTURE WILL ALSO REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE
AREA...ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH AMPLIFYING TROUGH TO
RESULT IN A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY
ACROSS WESTERN AND INTERIOR PUERTO RICO THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

AT 5 AM AST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GRACE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 14.1 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 41.0 WEST. THE LATEST GUIDANCE
HAS THE STORM DISSIPATING INTO A REMNANT LOW BY 48 HOURS.
HOWEVER...ACCORDINGLY TO THE MODEL GUIDANCE A WETTER PATTERN WILL
BE EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. PLEASE SEE
TCPAT2...TCMAT2 AND TCDAT2 ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT GRACE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS AT ALL TAF SITES UNTIL 08/16Z. BRIEF MTN TOP
OBSC ALONG THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL WITH PSBL VCSH/VCTS FOR TJMZ AND
TJBQ AFTER 08/16Z...BREIF MVFR CONDS ALSO POSSIBLE AT TJMZ. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY MORNING ...BCMG FM E AND INCREASING
TO 10-15 KNOTS BTW 08/14Z-08/22Z.

&&

.MARINE...A RELATIVELY QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS WITH SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND EASTERLY
WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 80 91 80 / 10 10 20 30
STT 91 80 90 81 / 20 10 20 30

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Sept 9, 2015 5:02:58 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Sept 9, 2015 5:02:58 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
624 AM AST WED SEP 9 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A WEAK TROUGH WILL CONTINUE JUST
NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR THE FORECAST AREA AND
GENERALLY WEST OR NORTHWEST UNTIL A TROUGH FROM THE EAST MOVES
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MID
LEVELS WILL BE DRY THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT A TROPICAL WAVE PASSAGE
WILL INCREASE MOISTURE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER
TROPICAL WAVE WILL INCREASE MOISTURE LATE NEXT WEEK.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
INCREASE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING ALLOWING TRADE WINDS TO
INCREASE. REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM GRACE ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA WITH AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THEN DRIER CONDITIONS WILL
SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A BAND OF SHOWERS MOVING AT ABOUT 20 KNOTS FROM THE
EAST NORTHEAST DROPPED SOME RAIN ACROSS EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND
THE WATERS AROUND CULEBRA AND VIEQUES. THIS MOISTURE WILL ALSO
FUEL MODERATE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN
PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS SHOW DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND
THIS BAND THAT WILL LAST UNTIL EARLY THIS EVENING ANOTHER BAND OF
MOISTURE WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND
THE WATERS TO THE EAST. THIS MOISTURE WILL ALSO FUEL BETTER
CONVECTION ON THURSDAY. ON FRIDAY THE MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS
OF TROPICAL STORM GRACE WILL APPROACH THE AREA. ALTHOUGH GRACE IS
NOW A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IT IS EXPECTED TO BE AN OPEN WAVE BY
FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALSO EXPLAIN THE FASTER MOVEMENT AND HENCE
EARLIER ARRIVAL THAN EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH RAIN
AMOUNTS WILL BE BETTER EVERYWHERE ON ACCOUNT OF THE PASSAGE...THIS
WILL BE A MODERATE EVENT IN PUERTO RICO AND RAINFALL MAY BE LESS
THAN HOPED FOR IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
MORE SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THE PASSAGE OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AND
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE SHOULD BE
LEFT ON SATURDAY TO FUEL WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CENTERED IN THE CENTRAL INTERIOR AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO. MOISTURE DIMINISHES AFTER SATURDAY BUT WILL BE SUFFICIENT
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS...THOUGH NOT PARTICULARLY HEAVY
ACCUMULATIONS...IN MANY PARTS OF PUERTO RICO. SHOWERS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND BRIEF IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AFTER
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN AS THEY ARE UNTIL THE
APPROACH OF THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM GRACE TO THE
AREA...LIKELY AS AN OPEN WAVE. CARIBBEAN SEAS WILL INCREASE DURING
AND AFTER THE PASSAGE. ATLANTIC SEAS MAY EVEN REACH 7 FEET AS
SWELL AND WINDS ARRIVE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 91 79 90 80 / 20 30 20 30
STT 91 80 90 80 / 20 30 20 30

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Sept 10, 2015 4:06:55 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Sept 10, 2015 4:06:55 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
500 AM AST THU SEP 10 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS... A WEAK TROUGH WILL SIT OVER THE
MONA CHANNEL AND THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THROUGH TUESDAY.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA FROM THE EAST MID
WEEK...BUT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN.

AT MID LEVELS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE NORTH OF THE AREA
UNTIL ABOUT TUESDAY. PRESSURES WILL WEAKEN TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK. MID LEVELS WILL BECOME QUITE
MOIST BY SATURDAY MORNING. DRIER AIR WILL THEN RETURN UNTIL
ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE MOVES THROUGH MID WEEK.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL DRIVE
MODERATE TRADE WINDS UNTIL LATER NEXT WEEK. FILAMENTS OF MOISTURE
AND A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL BRING A LITTLE MORE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY. ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY REMNANTS OF
FORMERLY TROPICAL STORM GRACE WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO MOST OF THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL DECREASE ON
SUNDAY...BUT BETTER MOISTURE WILL ENTER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND
PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HEAVY SHOWERS FORMED JUST EAST OF MAINLAND PUERTO
RICO THIS MORNING AND LEFT MODERATE AMOUNTS OF RAIN ON THE EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE LUQUILLO RANGE AND ALONG THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE NORTHERN COAST LINE. THE LUIS MUNOZ MARIN AIRPORT SAW TWO
TENTHS OF AN INCH BEFORE 5 AM AST...AND SOME SHOWERS WERE STILL
MOVING ONSHORE FROM THE EAST AT THAT TIME.

BETTER MOISTURE WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY. THEN SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR WILL HOLD
SHOWERS TO A MINIMUM OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME ARE EXPECTED ON THE
EAST COAST. MODELS SHOW THE STRENGTH OF THE OPEN WAVE TRENDING
SLIGHTLY DOWNWARD...BUT MOISTURE VALUES CONTINUE MUCH AS THEY HAVE
BEEN FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL TO THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...AND LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY ON SUNDAY AS WELL FROM
MOISTURE BANDS BEHIND THE WAVE. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA ON TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK WHICH BEGINS A PERIOD OF ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER FOR THE AREA AND WILL USHER IN ENHANCED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND BETTER RAINFALL OVER THE
AREA. NEVERTHELESS...CURRENT MODELS INDICATE THE BEST MOISTURE
WILL BE LATER ON FRIDAY OF THIS WEEK THAN ANYTIME NEXT WEEK.

ALTHOUGH SOME AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS WILL SEE RISES DURING THIS
UPCOMING RAINFALL EVENT...WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED...AS
SHOWERS WILL MOVE RELATIVELY RAPIDLY THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE FCST
PERIOD WITH SOME VCSH EARLY IN THE MORNING ACROSS TJSJ/TIST/TISX
AND TNCM/TKPK. THIS AFTERNOON...BETWEEN 10/17-21Z MTN TOP
OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE WESTERN INTERIOR OF PR WITH
VCSH/VCTS FOR TJMZ/TJBQ. AT THE SURFACE...EXPECT EAST WINDS AT 5
TO 10 KNOTS...INCREASING UP TO 15 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS AND SEA
BREEZE VARIATIONS AFT 10/13Z.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE NEXT
TROPICAL WAVE ON FRIDAY EVENING. SEAS WILL APPROACH 7 FEET FRIDAY
NIGHT IN THE NORTHERN LOCAL OUTER WATERS AND SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES MAY BE NECESSARY. GUSTS IN THE TROPICAL WAVE COULD
EXCEED 30 KNOTS IN THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE SEAS WILL REMAIN
BELOW 6 FEET AND WINDS WILL RELAX LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 92 80 89 77 / 20 40 40 70
STT 91 80 89 80 / 20 30 40 70

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Sept 11, 2015 4:22:53 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Sept 11, 2015 4:22:53 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR

538 AM AST FRI SEP 11 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A WEAK TROUGH WILL PERSIST JUST WEST

OF PUERTO RICO THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IT WILL BE DISPLACED TO THE

WEST BY A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC

THAT WILL EDGE INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN DURING THE UPCOMING

WEEK...BUT THE CENTER OF WHICH WILL NOT REACH THE FORECAST AREA.

AT MID LEVELS...WEAK GRADIENTS WILL PERSIST WITH HIGH PRESSURE

CONTINUING IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ACROSS

OR NEAR THE FLORIDA STRAIT. MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE

THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE REMNANTS OF GRACE IN AN OPEN

WAVE. DRY AIR RETURNS UNTIL A TROPICAL WAVE ON TUESDAY BRINGS

ANOTHER BAND OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. THEN MOISTURE REMAINS

AROUND 50 PERCENT THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS IN THE CENTRAL

ATLANTIC THROUGH MONDAY. IT WEAKENS EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT IT IS

REFRESHED BY A NEW HIGH EMERGING OUT OF EASTERN CANADA WEDNESDAY

NIGHT...REACHING THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OVER THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.

THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM GRACE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA

TODAY AND SATURDAY AS A TROPICAL WAVE...WITH THE BEST MOISTURE

ENDING SATURDAY MORNING. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE

AREA ON TUESDAY AND GOOD MOISTURE CONTINUES ON AND OFF. TRADE

WINDS WILL VARY PROPORTIONAL TO THE STRENGTH OF THE FOREMENTIONED

HIGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A FEW SHOWERS DRIFTED BY IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS

OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY A FEW SPRINKLES OVER LAND. HOWEVER A BAND OF

SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVED INTO THE EASTERN EXTREME OF THE FORECAST

AREA AFTER 3 AM AST AND PASSED OVER THE ISLANDS OF SAINT

JOHN...SAINT CROIX AND SAINT THOMAS BY 5 AM AST. THIS WILL BE THE

FORERUNNER OF THE REMNANT OF TROPICAL STORM GRACE THAT HAS PROVED

TO BE ACTIVE AS IT MOVED AT ABOUT 23 KNOTS INTO THE CARIBBEAN

WATERS EAST SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. LIGHTNING

DETECTORS SHOWED GOOD ACTIVITY AS IT LEFT THE WESTERN ATLANTIC

EARLIER LAST NIGHT...AND IT IS EXPECTED TO BRING RAIN AND

THUNDERSTORMS TO ALL OF THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE DAY TODAY. MOST

OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE

AFTERNOON. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AND

MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE SATURDAY

EVENING.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF NEXT

WEEK IN THEIR TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERN...BUT EXPECT ENHANCED

ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY WHEN ANOTHER WAVE PASSES THROUGH. THE GFS IS

SHOWING A WIND SURGE MOVING OFF OF THE AFRICAN CONTINENT LAST

NIGHT THAT DEVELOPS INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE MID WEEK NEXT

WEEK...HOWEVER AT PRESENT THE GFS ALSO MOVES IT ABRUPTLY NORTH

LATE IN THE WEEK BEFORE IT CAN GET TO 60 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA

ASSOCIATED TO TS GRACE REMNANTS. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE

EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY ACROSS TNCM/TKPK/TIST/TISX/TJSJ DURING

THE MORNING. SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE MORNING

HRS AND THEN WILL MOVE INTO THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR.

MTNS OBSCD...LOW CEILING AND MVFR DUE TO SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED OVER

MOST OF THE TAF SITES. SFC WIND AT 5 TO 10 KT...THEN BCMG 10-20 KT

WITH HIGHER GUSTS AND SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...AS THUNDERSTORMS BRING GUSTY WINDS DOWN FROM THE LOWER

LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WHERE 20 TO 30 KNOTS OF EASTERLY WINDS

HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY CONSISTENT...SEAS WILL BEGIN TO COME UP.

CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THESE WINDS WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO CREATE

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO THE LOCAL WATERS. WHILE

ACTIVITY WAS STRONGER LAST NIGHT AND PASSING BY A BUOY IN THE FAR

WESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC...THAT BUOY FELL JUST INCHES SHORT OF

FINDING 7 FOOT SEAS. LOCAL WATERS SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT MORE

PROTECTED BUT GUSTY WINDS IN THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY

HIGHER SEAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

SJU 90 77 90 78 / 60 80 70 40

STT 90 80 88 80 / 70 80 60 30

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Sept 12, 2015 4:11:40 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Sept 12, 2015 4:11:40 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
539 AM AST SAT SEP 12 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MONA PASSAGE WILL
HOLD OVER THE AREA AT LEAST UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE TROUGH
PATTERN ALOFT WILL COMBINE WITH REMNANTS OF GRACE TO PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO THROUGH THIS EVENING. WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE GRADUALLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS DRIER
AIR WILL SPREAD OVER THE FORECAST AREA. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS
EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOCAL AREA BY MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE FOCUS OF THE BEST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WAS
DETECTED OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS AND ANEGADA PASSAGE. SOME BANDS
WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS REACHED THE LOCAL
ISLANDS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY IN THE MORNING. THE LOCAL NETWORK
DETECTED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS OF UP TO 45
MPH AT TIMES. IN ADDITION...THE RAINGAGES AT CARRAIZO AND LA PLATA
BASIN REPORTED UP TO 0.48 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE LAST 12 HOURS.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL INTERACT WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE
MOISTURE TO INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AS RESULT...
EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH PASSING SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME
ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL AREA TODAY. IN ADDITION...SQUALLY WEATHER
WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL ACTIVITY AND GUSTY WINDS CAN ALSO
BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION.

MODELS HAVE OVERDONE THE RAINFALL ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
REGION...HOWEVER THE GFS STILL INSISTS IN A HIGH POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THE MAXIMUM
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED WELL SOUTH OVER THE
CARIBBEAN WATERS. THERE IS SOME PROMISE OF GOOD CONVECTION
DEVELOPING OVER PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON...BUT IT SHOULD BE
NOTED A DENSE LAYER OF CLOUDINESS OVER THE REGION COULD INHIBIT
THE AMOUNT OF SOLAR RADIATION AND THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION.
HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS IS STILL HIGH.

WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE GRADUALLY TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AS DRIER AIR SPREADS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. BUT EACH DAY
AFTERNOON CONVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR AND
WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...UNTIL THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT TROPICAL
WAVE...THAT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOCAL AREA BY MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...THE BACK EDGE OF THE BEST MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL WAVE
IS MOVING ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...CONDS WILL IMPROVE TO
PREVAILING VFR AFT 12/09Z WITH VCSH CONTG AND A POSSIBILITY OF
TSRA AFT 12/16Z. SHRA DCRG ARND TISX AND TIST AFT 12/18Z TO
PREVAILING VFR. PREVAILING VFR OVR PR TIL 12/16Z XCP VCNTY TJPS
AND E-S COASTS TIL 12/10Z MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN +SHRA STREAMING
ACROSS. GUSTY WINDS TO 35 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TSRA. AFT
12/16Z SHRA/TSRA DVLPG WEST AND INTERIOR PORTIONS PR LCL MVFR/IFR
FOR CIG/VIS. MTN OBSCURATIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PD. WINDS
ALF UP TO FL150 ESE 15 TO 25 KT INCRG TO 15 TO 30 KT BY 13/00Z AND
BCMG SE.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND ANEGADA PASSAGE ARE
EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 5-7 FEET WITH OCCASIONAL SEAS UP TO 9 FEET.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ANEGADA PASSAGE...THE
CARIBBEAN AND ATLANTIC OFFSHORE WATERS UNTIL 8AM AST. SQUALLY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL WATERS DURING THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS
AS THE TROPICAL WAVE EXITS THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THE POTENTIAL FOR BENEFICIAL RAINS ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT FORECAST PERIOD...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH
LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST. DUE TO THIS EXPECTED
RAINFALL...SOME SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES CAN BE EXPECTED ON
THE LARGER RIVERS AND STREAMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. FOR THE
SMALLER STREAMS AND URBAN AREAS INCLUDING THE GUTS OF THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS...SOME MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING CAN BE EXPECTED.
ALSO...IN WESTERN PUERTO RICO WHERE SOILS ARE SATURATED AND SOME
STREAM AND RIVER LEVELS ARE HIGH...THERE IS ALSO A POTENTIAL FOR
MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 79 90 79 / 50 40 40 30
STT 90 82 90 80 / 60 30 30 30

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Sept 13, 2015 4:06:57 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Sept 13, 2015 4:06:57 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
526 AM AST SUN SEP 13 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THE LINGERING MOISTURE AND CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH
YESTERDAYS TROPICAL WAVE ARE EXPECTED TO LEAVE THE AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING. A TUTT LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH JUST WEST OF THE
REGION...OVER HISPANIOLA...WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT FARTHER
WEST...AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
ALOFT...BUILDS AND SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE SUBTROPICAL
ATLANTIC. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOCAL
AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED CONSIDERABLE MID TO HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDINESS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO...THE CARIBBEAN...ATLANTIC
AND THE MONA PASSAGE. ALSO..DRY AIR ADVECTION CAN BE SEEN ENTERING
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO.

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH PASSING SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME
PREVAILED ACROSS MOST OF THE ISLANDS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS OVERNIGHT. FLOOD ADVISORIES WERE ISSUED FOR THE
MUNICIPALITIES OF ADJUNTAS... PENUELAS...PONCE...SAN
LORENZO...CAGUAS...AND JUNCOS DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY
RAIN. IN ADDITION DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS...CARRAIZO RAIN GAGES
RECORDED BETWEEN 1 AND 3.34 INCHES OF RAIN AND LA PLATA SENSORS
BETWEEN 0.19 AND 0.42 INCHES OF RAIN.

SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SLOWLY AS DRY AIR
ADVECTION REACHES THE LOCAL AREA. THEREFORE...HUMID AND WARMER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED OVER THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER...ELSEWHERE...
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE AS THE LINGERING
MOISTURE AND CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE...NOW OVER
HAITI...WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION. FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DURING THE FIRST PART OF THIS WEEK...WITH
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN PR AND
THE USVI...FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS THE INTERIOR
AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR.

THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOCAL ISLANDS BY
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AS RESULT...THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THAT
PERIOD. THEN...A WEAK SAHARAN AIR LAYER IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
LOCAL AREA BY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...DRIER AIR OVER LEEWARD ISLANDS WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS TO
PUERTO RICO THRU 14/02Z. MEANWHILE UNSTABLE PROFILE IS PROMOTING
SHRA/TSRA ACROSS LOCAL CARIB WATERS AND PUERTO RICO BEHIND TROPICAL
WAVE. EXPECT AREAS OF MVFR/IFR AND MTN OBSCURATIONS MAINLY SOUTHERN
PR AND HIR TERRAIN. CONDS IMPRVG TIL 13/16Z THEN SHRA/TSRA DVLPG WRN
PR WITH MVFR CIGS/VIS AND MTN OBSCURATIONS. WINDS SFC TO FL150 ESE
10 TO 25 KT XCP LIGHTER AT SFC BFR 13/14Z AND GUSTS TO 30 KT NR TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...NOW LOCATED OVER THE
CARIBBEAN WATERS AND MONA PASSAGE WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY
WINDS...WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE LOCAL CARIBBEAN
WATERS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST OF THE
LOCAL WATERS...AS SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE UP TO 6 FEET AND WINDS
UP TO 20 KNOTS. MARINE CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. BETTER MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 91 79 91 79 / 40 20 20 20
STT 91 82 90 79 / 40 20 20 20

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Sept 14, 2015 4:04:34 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Sept 14, 2015 4:04:34 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
532 AM AST MON SEP 14 2015

.SYNOPSIS..HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS AND GRADUALLY SPREADS
ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION.
TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PASSING SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS AFFECTED
THE LOCAL ISLANDS. HOWEVER...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS WERE MINIMAL.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL PROMOTE STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...ALTHOUGH A DRIER AIR MASS WILL
ENCOMPASS THE REGION LATER TODAY...LIMITED MOISTURE WILL COMBINE
WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND OROGRAPHICS EFFECTS TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR
SECTION OF PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON.

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED NEAR 50 WEST LONGITUDE THIS MORNING WILL
APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. LATEST
SATELITE IMAGES SHOWS THIS WAVE HAVE A LARGE AREA OF MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH IT. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE LOCAL
AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT BETTER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED FOR
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF
THIS WAVE...A RELATIVELY WET PATTERN IN EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN ACROSS THE REGION LATER
TODAY...SUPPORTING MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH ONLY VCSH. ISOLD
SHRA/TSRA MAY FORM OVER W PR BETWEEN 18/21...LEADING TO MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE OVER TJMZ. EASTERLY WIND FLOW AROUND 20 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL
BELOW 20K FEET THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 79 88 77 / 20 30 60 20
STT 91 80 88 78 / 20 40 60 40

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Sept 15, 2015 3:48:06 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Sept 15, 2015 3:48:06 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
520 AM AST TUE SEP 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST AND WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE THIS
MORNING. THIS WAVE AND THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT...WILL
AFFECT THE LOCAL REGION THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.DISCUSSION...APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE WITH AXIS CURRENTLY AT
AROUND 63W WILL CAUSE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE LOCAL MOISTURE
STARTING THIS MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL CAUSE AN INCREASE IN PASSING SHOWER ACTIVITY
EARLY IN THE MORNING HOURS TODAY. LATER TODAY...SHOWERS WITH
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. NUMEROUS
SHOWERS WERE SEEN ACROSS THE COASTAL COASTAL WATERS MOVING SLOWLY
NORTHWEST. LATEST SJU-GFS GUIDANCE INDICATED PWAT VALUES WILL BE
AROUND 2.25 INCHES TODAY AND TOMOROW...DIMINISHING BELOW 2.0
INCHES BY TOMORROW NIGHT. THEREFORE...EXISTS A HIGH CHANCE FOR
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION NEXT 36 HOURS.

WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE LATE WEDNESDAY AFTER
THE PASSAGE OF THIS WAVE. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS WAVE...NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE
REGION FOR NOW. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE CONCENTRATED OVER THE
WESTERN INTERIOR PUERTO RICO EACH AFTERNOON...WITH SOME PASSING
SHOWERS AFFECTING THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO
DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA/TSRA WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY AS TROPICAL WAVE
MOVES OVER THE FLYING AREA LATER TODAY. CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS WILL
SPREAD OVER THE LEEWARD AND USVI TERMINALS THIS MORNING AND OVER PR
LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TSRA
THRU TONIGHT. LOW LVL ENE WINDS OF 15-25 KT...VEERING FM THE ESE
THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 78 90 78 / 60 50 50 30
STT 89 80 87 79 / 60 60 60 30

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Sept 16, 2015 4:01:07 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Sept 16, 2015 4:01:07 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
547 AM AST WED SEP 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER TROUGH/TUTT BETWEEN CUBA AND HISPANOLA WILL
SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...RELOCATING EAST OF
THE AREA DURING THE WEEKEND. TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE MONA PASSAGE
WILL CONTINUE TO INDUCE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SOMEWHAT THIS
EVENING AS DEEP MOISTURE GRADUALLY MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA. A
PULSE OF SAHARAN DUST WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION LATER TODAY AND
PERSIST ON THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS HAVE PREVAILED ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE
OBSERVED ACROSS MOST OF THE WATERS AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS...VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO. SINCE
MIDNIGHT...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS HAVE RANGED BETWEEN ONE QUARTER
AND HALF-INCH ACROSS THESE AREAS...AND UP TO ONE INCH IN THE BORDER
BETWEEN NAGUABO AND LAS PIEDRAS. NEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
COULD DEVELOP DURING THE DAY AS CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY AND DEEP
MOISTURE REMAIN HIGH ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL TODAY IS EXPECTED OVER THE NORTH AND WEST
PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITH MODERATE RAINFALL CAN DEVELOP ANYWHERE IN THE
FORECAST AREA DUE TO THE UNSTABLE AND MOIST CONDITIONS.

WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SLOWLY TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS
TROPICAL WAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE MOVES OVER HISPANOLA.
MOISTURE LEVELS WILL RETURN TO NORMAL ON THURSDAY. A PULSE OF
SAHARAN DUST WILL REACH THE FORECAST AREA LATER TODAY...LINGERING
THROUGH THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...DRIER AND MORE STABLE CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL ON THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS... TYPICAL AFTERNOON CONVECTION CANNOT RULE OUT DUE
TO THE LOCAL EFFECTS AND THE PROXIMITY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
TROUGH/TUTT.

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
TIST AND TISX THROUGH AT LEAST 16/16Z. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT
TJMZ...AND TJBQ FROM 16/16Z THROUGH 16/22Z IN SHRA/TSRA. LOW LEVEL
WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS OF 2-4 FEET CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NEARSHORE
WATERS. SLIGHTLY HIGHER SEAS UP TO 5 FEET ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE WATERS. NO MUCH CHANGE ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION. FOR
TODAY...THE MAIN HAZARD FOR MARINERS WILL BE THE THUNDERSTORMS
WHERE LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 80 89 79 / 50 20 20 20
STT 89 79 89 77 / 60 20 20 20

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Sept 17, 2015 4:03:24 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Sept 17, 2015 4:03:24 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
511 AM AST THU SEP 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK UPPER TROUGH/TUTT OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE WILL
SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...RELOCATING EAST OF
THE AREA DURING THE WEEKEND. PATCHES OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION AT TIMES BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLANDS.
SAHARAN DUST WILL PERSIST OVER THE ISLANDS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
OVERALL...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FEATURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE CONDITIONS HAVE PREVAILED ACROSS
THE REGION DURING OVERNIGHT HOURS. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS. SOME SHOWERS HAVE MOVED INLAND ACROSS THE WINDWARD SIDE OF
THE ISLANDS...LEAVING RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 0.1-0.25 INCHES.

MOISTURE WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. GFS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS WITH
SAHARAN DUST FILTERING AT LOW LEVELS TODAY BUT ALSO SHOW A FAIRLY
MOIST ENVIRONMENT AT MID-UPPER LEVELS. THEREFORE...THE COVERAGE
OF THE AFTERNOON SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DEPEND GREATLY ON HOW
QUICKLY THE MID-UPPER CLOUDS FADE OUT. DIURNAL HEATING IS REQUIRED
TO TRIGGER THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER WESTERN PR...SO PROBABLY
THE ONSET OF THE DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL BE DELAYED DUE TO THE
CLOUD COVER ALOFT.

LONG TERM...TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH PATCHES OF MOISTURE
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FROM TIME TO TIME. ALTHOUGH...NO SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...TYPICAL EARLY MORNING SHOWERS OVER THE USVI
AND EASTERN PR AND THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER WEST PR CANNOT
RULE OUT EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING
AREA WITH ONLY BRIEF PERIODS OF PASSING -SHRA/SHRA ACROSS TIST...
TISX AND TJSJ AND OVER THE LOCAL WATER UNTIL 17/14Z. LATEST TJSJ
SOUNDING INDICATED AN EAST SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW UP TO 20 KNOTS ALL
THE WAY FROM THE SURFACE TO 10K FEET...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
10-25K AND WEST SOUTHWESTERLY AND A LITTLE STRONGER ALOFT.
SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA EXPECTED FROM 17/18Z-17/22Z OVER WEST INTERIOR
AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN RANGE OF PUERTO RICO.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS OF 1-3 FEET WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE NEARSHORE
WATERS. SLIGHTLY HIGHER SEAS UP TO 4 FEET ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE WATERS. NO MUCH CHANGE ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 79 89 78 / 30 20 20 30
STT 89 77 88 78 / 30 20 20 40

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Sept 18, 2015 3:54:16 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Sept 18, 2015 3:54:16 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
450 AM AST FRI SEP 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND WHILE WEAKENING. MEANWHILE...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND
INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WEST AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC...AND A BROAD TROUGH NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION...WILL MAINTAIN EASTERLY WINDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ISOLATED TO
LOCALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED OVER LOCAL WATERS...WITH
SOME OF THEM AFFECTING THE NORTHEAST COASTAL AREAS OF PUERTO RICO
AS WELL AS SAINT THOMAS AND SAINT CROIX. RAINFALL ACCUMULATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SHOWERS WERE MINIMAL. WINDS WERE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WITH COASTAL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOW
80S. OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS...UNDER LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY
WINDS...NO STRONG FEATURES TO CREATE FORCING...AND PRECIPITABLE
WATER NEAR NORMAL VALUES...EXPECT A SEASONABLE WEATHER REGIME
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING EACH DAY OVER AND WEST
OF THE CORDILLERA IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ELSEWHERE MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WITH JUST A ISOLD VCNTY SHRA OVER
TIST/TISX/TJSJ/TJBQ/TNCM/TKPK. AT THE OTHER TAF SITES...EXPECT CLEAR
CONDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. AFT 18/12Z SOME SHRA ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
VCTY OF TIST/TJSJ AND IN THE AFT HRS MTN OBSC ARE EXPECTED. LOW CIGS
AND LIKELY VCTS AT JMZ/JBQ AND POSSIBLE AT JSJ. SFC WINDS ARE
EXPECTED MAINLY FROM THE E TO ESE AT 10 TO 15 KT WITH SEA BREEZE
VARIATIONS AND GUSTS NEAR SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WITH SEAS UP TO 3 FEET AND WINDS 15 KNOTS OR LESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 79 89 79 / 40 20 50 20
STT 89 80 91 80 / 40 40 40 20

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Puerto Rico Weather

Post by cycloneye on Sept 4, 2015 4:35:52 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Sept 5, 2015 4:05:04 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Sept 6, 2015 4:43:10 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Sept 7, 2015 4:03:21 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Sept 8, 2015 3:56:02 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Sept 9, 2015 5:02:58 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Sept 10, 2015 4:06:55 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Sept 11, 2015 4:22:53 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Sept 12, 2015 4:11:40 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Sept 13, 2015 4:06:57 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Sept 14, 2015 4:04:34 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Sept 15, 2015 3:48:06 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Sept 16, 2015 4:01:07 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Sept 17, 2015 4:03:24 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Sept 18, 2015 3:54:16 GMT -6

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