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cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Sept 19, 2015 4:11:48 GMT -6

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Post by cycloneye on Sept 19, 2015 4:11:48 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
432 AM AST SAT SEP 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL LOW SOUTHWEST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND SOUTH
OF THE HISPANIOLA WILL SHIFT WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE
WEAKENING. TUTT WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
AND INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...AND A BROAD TROUGH NORTHEAST OF
THE REGION...WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS
WERE OBSERVED OVER LOCAL WATERS...WITH SOME OF THEM BRUSHING THE
NORTHEAST COASTAL AREAS OF PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS SAINT THOMAS AND
SAINT CROIX. RAINFALL ACCUMULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SHOWERS
WERE MINIMAL. WINDS WERE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH COASTAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOW 80S.

OVER THE NEXT 7 TO 8 DAYS...UNDER LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY
WINDS...NO STRONG FEATURES TO CREATE FORCING BUT ENOUGH CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY EACH DAY...AND PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR NORMAL VALUES...
EXPECT A SEASONABLE WEATHER REGIME WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING EACH DAY OVER AND WEST OF THE CORDILLERA IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. ELSEWHERE MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH ISOLATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE. AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE SLOW MOVERS AND THEREFORE URBAN FLOODING EXPECTED WITH THE
STRONGEST SHOWERS TODAY.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE AND TROPICAL STORM IDA WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE WNW AND NW RESPECTIVELY ACROSS OPEN WATERS. PLEASE REFER TO
TCPAT AND TCDAT 4 AND 5 FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WITH JUST A ISOLD VCNTY SHRA OVER
TIST/TISX/TNCM/TKPK THROUGH 18/16Z. SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED
AFTER 19/16Z ACROSS PR...CAUSING LIKELY VCTS ACROSS
TJSJ/TJBQ/TJMZ/TJPS...WITH TEMPO MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE AT THOSE
TERMINALS WITH LOWER VIS DUE TO RAIN AND LOWER CIGS...ALONG WITH
GUSTY WINDS. SFC WINDS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY FROM THE E AT 10 KT
WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AND GUSTS NEAR SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS WITH SEAS UP TO 3 FEET AND WINDS 15 KNOTS OR LESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 79 90 79 / 50 20 40 20
STT 89 79 89 78 / 20 20 20 20

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Sept 20, 2015 4:01:17 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Sept 20, 2015 4:01:17 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
420 AM AST SUN SEP 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL LOW SOUTHWEST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND
SOUTH OF THE HISPANIOLA WILL SHIFT WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WHILE WEAKENING. TUTT WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER NORTHEAST
OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. A LIGHT
TO MODERATE EAST SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WEEK...BECOMING SOUTHERLY BY THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS
WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS...WITH SOME OF THEM BRUSHING
THE EAST COASTAL AREAS OF PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS SAINT THOMAS AND
SAINT CROIX. RAINFALL ACCUMULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SHOWERS
WERE MINIMAL. WINDS WERE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...WITH COASTAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOW 80S.

AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO COMBINE WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND
LOCAL EFFECTS TO RESULT IN AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
AND WEST OF THE CORDILLERA AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE SAN JUAN METRO
AREA TODAY. ALTHOUGH DRIER AIR AT MID LEVELS WILL CAUSE AN OVERALL
DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS. THESE AFTERNOON
SHOWERS WILL BE SLOW MOVERS AND THEREFORE URBAN FLOODING IS EXPECTED
WITH THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS.

UNDER LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS...NO STRONG FEATURES
TO CREATE FORCING BUT ENOUGH CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY EACH DAY...
AND PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL VALUES...EXPECT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING EACH DAY OVER AND NORTH OF
THE CORDILLERA IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS MONDAY THRU FRIDAY.
ELSEWHERE MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH ISOLATED SHOWER
ACTIVITY EXPECTED.

TROPICAL STORM IDA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WNW ACROSS OPEN WATERS.
PLEASE REFER TO TCPAT AND TCDAT 5 FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WITH VCNTY SHRA OVER
TIST/TISX/TNCM/TKPK THROUGH 20/14Z. SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE
AFTER 20/14Z IN AND AROUND TJSJ/TIST/TISX. AFTER 20/17Z...SHRA/TSRA
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN PR...LIKELY CAUSING VCTS ACROSS
TJSJ/TJBQ/TJMZ/TJPS...TEMPO MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE AT THOSE TERMINALS...
ESPECIALLY AT TJMZ. SFC WINDS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY FROM THE E TO
E-SE AT AROUND 10 KT WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AND GUSTS NEAR
SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS WITH SEAS UP TO 3 FEET AND WINDS 15 KNOTS OR
LESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 79 89 79 / 40 30 40 20
STT 89 78 89 78 / 30 30 30 30

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Sept 21, 2015 4:10:51 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Sept 21, 2015 4:10:51 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
606 AM AST MON SEP 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL
ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS UNTIL A
SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC MOVES NORTH NORTHEAST AND
INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC BY THURSDAY. UPPER LOW TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE CARIBBEAN WILL SLOWLY MOVE WEST OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AND POSITION ITSELF TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS BY
WEDNESDAY AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT FOR THIS WEEK. TROPICAL STORM
IDA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC WATERS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED TODAY
ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA WITH SOME OF THE SHOWERS AFFECTING
THE USVI AND EASTERN PR. EVEN THOUGH THE ACCUMULATIONS WERE FAIRLY
MINIMAL AND THE SHOWERS WERE BRIEF...THE OVERALL COVERAGE WAS
FAIRLY LARGE. TODAY WE EXPECT A VERY SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN TO
WHAT WE HAVE OBSERVED THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE WINDS REMAIN LIGHT
AND THE OVERALL AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS ENOUGH TO ENHANCE THE
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ONCE IT COMBINES
WITH THE LOCAL EFFECTS AND DIURNAL HEATING. CENTRAL AND WESTERN PR
HAS THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF HEAVY RAINFALL. HOWEVER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS OTHER SECTORS IN PR AS WELL. IN
ADDITION...SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP OVER THE USVI ONCE IT INTERACTS
WITH THE ISLANDS...WITH THE NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS
HAVING THE HIGHER CHANCE OF RAIN AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS.

THIS GENERAL WEATHER PATTERN IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE OVERALL LARGER PATTERN AND AVAILABLE
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT CONSTANT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVES IN ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP IN COMPARISON TO WHAT WE HAVE OBSERVED
THE PAST FEW DAYS AND WHAT WE EXPECT FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR XCP MVFR IN SCT SHRA...MORE NMRS OFFSHORE THRU
MORNING. MVFR IN SCT-NMRS SHRA/TSRA IN AFT ACRS PR...SPCLLY WEST AND
INTERIOR WI OBSCD MTNS...BUT ALSO WEST AND NORTHWEST OF USVI AND
INTO SAN JUAN METRO. SIMILAR CONDS XPCTD TONITE/TUE. WIND BLW FL100
E-ESE 5-14 KT THRU TUE...WIND N ABV FL100 AND INCR WI HGT THEN
BACKING TO W-NW TONITE-TUE.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS ARE RELATIVELY TRANQUIL AND WILL REMAIN
SO FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 5 DAYS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. FOR TODAY...EXPECT WINDS AT
AROUND 10 KNOTS AND SEAS UP TO 4 FEET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 78 89 78 / 40 20 30 30
STT 88 79 88 78 / 60 30 30 30

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Sept 22, 2015 3:56:15 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Sept 22, 2015 3:56:15 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
524 AM AST TUE SEP 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL
ATLANTIC IS STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS UNTIL A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC MOVES NORTH
NORTHEAST AND INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC BY THURSDAY. UPPER
LOW TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CARIBBEAN WILL SLOWLY MOVE WEST OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND POSITION ITSELF TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL
ISLANDS BY WEDNESDAY AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK...WEAKENING AND MOVING NORTH THEREAFTER. WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT THE REST OF THE WEEK. TROPICAL STORM
IDA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC WATERS FOR
SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA WITH SOME OF
THE SHOWERS AFFECTING THE USVI AND EASTERN PR. EVEN THOUGH THE
ACCUMULATIONS WERE FAIRLY MINIMAL AND THE SHOWERS WERE BRIEF...THE
OVERALL COVERAGE WAS FAIRLY LARGE. TODAY WE EXPECT A VERY SIMILAR
WEATHER PATTERN TO WHAT WE HAVE OBSERVED THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE
WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND THE OVERALL AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS ENOUGH TO
ENHANCE THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ONCE
IT COMBINES WITH THE LOCAL EFFECTS AND DIURNAL HEATING. CENTRAL
AND WESTERN PR HAS THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF HEAVY RAINFALL. HOWEVER
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS OTHER SECTORS IN PR
AS WELL. IN ADDITION...SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP OVER THE USVI ONCE IT
INTERACTS WITH THE ISLANDS...WITH THE NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
ISLANDS HAVING THE HIGHER CHANCE OF RAIN AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS.

THIS GENERAL WEATHER PATTERN IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE OVERALL LARGER PATTERN AND AVAILABLE
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT CONSTANT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. ACCORDING TO THE GFS MODEL...THE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES SHOULD REMAIN AT AROUND 2 INCHES TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR MOVES IN ON THURSDAY AND EVEN DRIER ON FRIDAY...WHICH
SHOULD LIMIT SOMEWHAT THE AMOUNT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DEVELOP COMPARED TO WHAT WE HAVE OBSERVED THE PAST FEW
DAYS...AND ALSO WHEN COMPARED TO WHAT WE EXPECT TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY. OTHER THAN THE UPPER TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA...THERE IS REALLY NO OTHER FEATURE
SUCH AS A TROPICAL WAVE OR OTHER...EXPECTED TO HAVE A LOCAL
IMPACT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES IN THE MORNING HOURS
WITH VCSH POSSIBLE AT THE USVI AND LEEWARD TERMINALS AS WELL AS JSJ.
AFTER 22/16Z...MVFR CONDS AT JMZ/JBQ AND POSSIBLY JSJ IN SHRA/TSRA
THRU 22/23Z. WINDS ESE AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH SOME SEA BREEZE
VARIATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS WITH 10 TO 15 KNOT WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL
WATERS. SEAS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY TRANQUIL AS
THEY ARE EXPECTED TO BE UP TO 4 FEET FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 78 89 79 / 40 30 30 30
STT 89 78 88 79 / 30 40 40 40

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Sept 23, 2015 4:07:23 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Sept 23, 2015 4:07:23 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
507 AM AST WED SEP 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY BE DISPLACED TO THE EAST AS A SURFACE LOW
MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC AND INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL
ATLANTIC BY THURSDAY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURES ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL KEEP A LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST
SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TROPICAL STORM IDA IS
STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...CURRENTLY DRIFTING SLOWLY TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST.
UPPER TROUGH IS STILL TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA BUT IT IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTH BY FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ONCE AGAIN...SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS
THE LOCAL WATERS...SOME OF THEM BRIEFLY AFFECTING THE USVI AND
EASTERN PR. ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE MORNING HOURS TODAY. VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN PATTERN IS
EXPECTED FOR TODAY WHEN COMPARED TO THE LAST FEW DAYS. THERE IS
STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE TO ENHANCE THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THE LIGHT EAST SOUTHEAST
FLOW SUGGESTS THAT ONCE AGAIN THE INTERIOR AND THE NORTHWEST
QUADRANT OF PR HAS THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON. PORTIONS OF EASTERN PR AND THE SAN JUAN
METRO AREA MAY ALSO OBSERVE SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. THE SOIL ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF PR
APPEARS TO BE SATURATED AND ANY HEAVY RAIN COULD RESULT IN
FLOODING. SOME RAIN COULD ALSO STREAM OFF THE NW SECTIONS OF THE
USVI...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE NW CORNER OF ST CROIX AND ST THOMAS.

SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IS STILL EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...BUT IT WILL
STILL HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO HELP DEVELOP SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR...NORTH CENTRAL AND THE
NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF PR ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER SLIGHTLY
LESS RAIN IS EXPECTED. SOME SHOWERS COULD STREAM OFF THE USVI AND
POSSIBLY AFFECT THE NW CORNERS OF THE ISLANDS SINCE THE STEERING
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT.

THE DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON FRIDAY...WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. WHICH MEANS THAT THERE IS STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP...JUST NOT AS MUCH AS WE HAVE
OBSERVED RECENTLY...IN ADDITION...THE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
LIFT NORTH...LEAVING LESS INSTABILITY OVER THE LOCAL AREA. AS OF
NOW...FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE A PRETTY WARM DAY.

THE WEEKEND AND THE UPCOMING WEEK LOOKS LIKE THE OVERALL PATTERN
WILL BE ONE OF LIGHT E-SE WINDS AND LOWER THAN NORMAL MOISTURE.
THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO A FEW
AREAS WHEN COMBINED WITH THE LOCAL EFFECTS...HOWEVER WITH THE
DRIER AIR MOVING IN AND THE WIND FLOW...THE TEMPERATURES COULD
RISE INTO THE LOW 90S IF THE FORECAST MODELS WERE TO VERIFY. THIS
IS STILL A BIT OUT TO BE TOO CONFIDENT BUT THE MODEL TREND IS TO
BE DRIER AND WARMER THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES IN THE MORNING HOURS
WITH VCSH POSSIBLE AT THE USVI AND LEEWARD TERMINALS AS WELL AS JSJ.
AFTER 23/16Z...MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDS AT JMZ/JBQ AND POSSIBLY JSJ IN
SHRA/TSRA. WX CONDS IMPROVING AFTER 23/23Z. LOW LVL WINDS FROM SE AT
10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH SOME SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. FOR TODAY WE EXPECT WINDS AT AROUND 10 KNOTS..MAYBE
UP TO 15 KNOTS AND SEAS OF 4 FEET OR LESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 80 88 80 / 30 20 20 20
STT 84 83 83 83 / 30 40 30 20

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Sept 24, 2015 4:17:52 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Sept 24, 2015 4:17:52 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
544 AM AST THU SEP 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS...THE LOW ABOUT 500 MILES
NORTH OF CABO SAN JUAN WILL WOBBLE OVER THE AREA AND THEN COME TO
WITHIN 250 MILES OF PUERTO RICO ON MONDAY. EARLY NEXT WEEK IT WILL
SLIDE WEST AND THEN INTO HISPANIOLA BY WEDNESDAY...LEAVING THE
LOCAL AREA UNDER THE TROUGH. A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER AND NORTH OF
COLOMBIA LATE NEXT WEEK. MID LEVELS WILL BECOME DRIER TODAY BUT
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN VERY CLOSE BY TO THE NORTH AND BRUSH THE
AREA AGAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...TROPICAL STORM IDA CONTINUES IN THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC INTO THE WEEKEND. IT IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT WEST LATER NEXT
WEEK IN A MUCH WEAKER CONDITION. HIGH PRESSURE OVER CANADA WILL
MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC BY LATE NEXT WEEK. WITH QUASI PERMANENT LOW
PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN...EAST SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST
TRADE WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 10 DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS CONTINUED LATE INTO THE NIGHT IN THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THEM. JUST A FEW HOURS
BEFORE DAWN SHOWERS DEVELOPED WEST OF AGUADA AND NORTH OF MONA
ISLAND AND WERE ALSO STRONG ENOUGH TO GENERATE A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES.

LOW PRESSURE AT UPPER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE
PATTERN TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH COOL TEMPERATURES IN ITS CORE
BRINGING INSTABILITY TO THE LOCAL AREA. THE GFS WAS ACTUALLY
FORECASTING A MINUS 9 LIFTED INDEX WITH RESPECT TO THE SURFACE
BASED PARCEL AND A MINUS 7 IN THE FORECAST PARCEL. THIS IS EVEN
MORE UNSTABLE THAN IT FORECAST YESTERDAY. IF IT WERE NOT FOR THE
FACT THAT MID LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO DRY SOMEWHAT...WOULD EXPECT
ACTIVITY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. EXAMINING THE MIMIC PRODUCT HOWEVER
LEAVES MORE ROOM TO DOUBT THAT SIGNIFICANT DRYING WILL ACTUALLY
OCCUR AS BANDING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES VERY CLOSE
TO PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. WITH SUCH GOOD
INSTABILITY EXPECTED IT SEEMED BEST TO KEEP POPS AROUND 80 FOR THE
NORTHWEST SECTION OF PUERTO RICO. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ALMOST
INSURE THAT FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL ALSO BE SEEN AROUND
THE AREA. EVEN AREAS NEAR THE COAST AND AROUND AND SOUTH OF SAN
JUAN ONE COULD SEE A THUNDERSTORM TODAY SINCE INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED TO BE GREATER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY. MOISTURE WOULD SEEM
TO SUGGEST THAT ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH OVER THE WEEKEND. BUT WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACTUALLY APPROACHING THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND...SHOWERS ACCOMPANIED BY THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN ARE
LIKELY EACH AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO CONTINUE IN A SIMILAR MANNER FOR THE NEXT
WEEK OR SO. THE GFS HAS BEEN RUNNING TOO HIGH ON THE NORTH COAST
AS SEA BREEZES HAVE TEMPERED HIGH TEMPERATURES THERE AND KEPT THEM
GENERALLY BELOW 90 DEGREES NEAR SHORE. ALSO HEAVY CLOUD COVER
FROM VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HAVE KEPT THE
EAST SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW FROM HAVING ITS USUAL WARMING
EFFECT. THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW 90 FOR THE
SAN JUAN AREA AND NEAR 90 JUST INLAND...INCLUDING THE PONCE AREA
WHICH IS ALSO BEING TEMPERED BY PERSISTENT AND MORE DIRECT SEA
BREEZES.

THE GFS IS INDICATING THAT MOISTURE WILL INCREASE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY TO NEAR THE LEVELS TO BE EXPERIENCED TODAY. PLUS THE GFS
IS FORECASTING TEMPERATURES AT 500 MB TO BE AROUND MINUS 8
YIELDING A VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. IT IS DIFFICULT TO SEE HOW
THIS WILL NOT PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAIN IN AREAS WITH SOME LOCAL
FLOODING AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING
SEVERE LEVELS. FORTUNATELY WINDS AT MID LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
15 KNOTS OR LESS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHEN THE GREATEST INSTABILITY
IS FORECAST TO OCCUR. SO EXPECT ONLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND SOME
GUSTY WINDS THEN. SMALL HAIL REMAINS A POSSIBILITY WITH WET BULB
ZERO LEVELS BELOW 12 THOUSAND FEET BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE...ALBEIT
SOMEWHAT WEAKER...THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK WHEN THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVES THROUGH HISPANIOLA.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL TEND TO FORM OFFSHORE OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS
EACH EVENING FROM TODAY INTO NEXT WEEK AS ACTIVITY OVER PUERTO
RICO DURING THE AFTERNOONS MOVES NORTHWEST WITH THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW AND IS ENHANCED BY THE HIGH SURFACE MOISTURE AND STRONG
INSTABILITY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES IN THE MORNING
HOURS. VCSH POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND TJPS...USVI AND LEEWARD
TERMINALS. MOUNTAIN OBSC OVER THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL WITH LOW
CEILING IN SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN AFT 24/16Z ACROSS THE WEST
AND NORTH PR. AS A RESULT...MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE AT TJBQ...TJMZ AND
TJSJ THRU 24/21Z. SFC WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FM SE AT 10 TO
15 KNOTS...WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AND HIGHER GUSTS IN AND NEAR
SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...MARINE CONDITIONS CHANGE VERY LITTLE DURING THE NEXT 7
TO 10 DAYS. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW 4 FEET WITH
WINDS RARELY EXCEEDING 15 KNOTS EXCEPT NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT 10 DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 80 89 79 / 50 20 40 20
STT 87 80 88 80 / 30 20 10 20

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Sept 25, 2015 4:04:56 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Sept 25, 2015 4:04:56 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
529 AM AST FRI SEP 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE ALMOST 600 MILES NORTH
OF ARECIBO PUERTO RICO WILL MOVE TO JUST NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS BY MONDAY AND THEN TO PUERTO RICO ON TUESDAY BEFORE
PASSING SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. FROM WEDNESDAY
ON...A TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO JUST SOUTH
OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S VIRGIN ISLANDS TO THIS LOW THROUGH THE
END OF NEXT WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...GENERALLY HIGH PRESSURE WITH WEAK GRADIENTS AND
TRANSITORY LOWS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. MID LEVELS WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY DRY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY WEAK
PATCHES OF MOISTURE DURING THE WEEK.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND LOW
PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL MAINTAIN GENTLE TO
MODERATE EAST SOUTHEAST TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM IDA WILL BE
FORCED WESTWARD SO AS TO PASS THROUGH THE ATLANTIC WATERS JUST
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LITTLE OR NOT
DEFINITION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A FEW SHOWERS DRIFTED ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS FROM
THE EAST SOUTHEAST...BUT LITTLE ACCUMULATIONS WERE EXPERIENCED
OVER LAND WHERE A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS CROSSED THE SOUTHEAST COAST
OF PUERTO RICO.

MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT THE
LIFTED INDEX WILL DECREASE ERRATICALLY TO A MINIMUM ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. HENCE...ALTHOUGH SHOWER COVERAGE WILL DIMINISH TODAY
THROUGH SUNDAY...SHOWERS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE QUITE INTENSE AND
WILL STILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING.

SOME MOISTURE RETURNS ON MONDAY AND...WITH STABILITY AT A
MINIMUM...SO THIS COULD BE THE MOST CRITICAL DAY OF THE WEEK.
NEVERTHELESS STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN SHOULD BE
VERY LOCALIZED IN WESTERN PUERTO RICO AND PARTS OF THE INTERIOR.
STABILITY RISES AFTER MONDAY. MOISTURE DIMINISHES TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY ALSO SO ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE
CONSIDERABLY. SOME MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY RETURNS LATE NEXT
WEEK.

THE GFS IS NOW HAVING DIFFICULTY LOCATING THE WEAK UPPER LOW
DURING THE COURSE OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THIS COULD BE AN INDICATION
OF HOW THE LOW IS LOSING SOME INTENSITY IN THE FORECAST. AND MAY
ALSO LESSEN THE INTENSITY OF THE STORMS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. THE
EXACT POSITION WILL BE SOMEWHAT CRITICAL...BUT MOISTURE FORECASTS
REMAIN A LITTLE MORE RELIABLE AND HENCE HAVE FAIR CONFIDENCE THAT
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND VERY LOCALIZED
URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING WILL OCCUR...MAINLY IN WESTERN
PUERTO RICO. A DRYING TREND IS FORESEEN TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE GFS ALSO PAINTS THE LOW FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA DRIFTING
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF THE AREA AND WEAKENING.
ALTHOUGH THIS APPEARS FAIRLY STRAIGHT-FORWARD...EXAMINATION OF
THE 850 MB FLOW AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY SHOWS THAT THE CIRCULATION
IS SPLIT BETWEEN TWO CENTERS EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THE MOISTURE
BECOMES SHEARED INTO LONG BANDS THAT BEAR LITTLE RESEMBLANCE TO
THE FORMER CIRCULATION. THE LARGER PICTURE REVEALS THAT SOME WEAK
TROUGHS MOVING IN FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST WILL OBSCURE MOST OF THE
SYSTEM SIGNATURE AND HENCE IT SHOULD PASS WITH LITTLE EFFECT ON
THURSDAY.

MOS CONTINUES TO OVER ESTIMATE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THE NORTH
COAST AND U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...BUT EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW HAS ALSO
ALLOWED A LITTLE WARMING...SO HAVE WARMED THE HIGHS SLIGHTLY BUT
STILL LEFT THE FORECAST BELOW GUIDANCE. STRONGLY SHEARED
THUNDERSTORM TOPS ARE STILL PROTECTING MOST OF THE ISLAND FROM
THE FULL EFFECTS OF SOLAR HEATING AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...XPCT VFR AT TAF SITES XCP IN SCT AFT SHRA/TSRA TJMZ/TJBQ
WI OBSCD MTNS NW QUARTER PR. SIMILAR CONDS SAT. OTHW ISOLD SHRA
MAINLY OFFSHORE. WIND BLW FL100 VRBL AOB 12 KT THRU SAT.

&&

.MARINE...SOME WEAK SWELL FROM THE NORTH HAS BOOSTED SEAS TO
BETWEEN 4 TO 5 FEET AT THE OUTER BUOY 41043 AND TO BETWEEN 3 TO 4
FEET ON THE NORTH COAST. THIS IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVER THE
WEEKEND. WE CONTINUE IN RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WITH NO
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 10 DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 79 90 79 / 20 20 10 10
STT 89 80 89 80 / 20 20 10 10

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Sept 26, 2015 4:16:17 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Sept 26, 2015 4:16:17 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
333 AM AST SAT SEP 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...WIND FLOW FROM 500 MB AND BELOW HAS RESEMBLED A
MID-LATITUDE BLOCKING PATTERN WITH LOW PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF
BAHAMAS AND REMNANTS OF IDA STILL EAST OF 50W AND A RIDGE IN
BETWEEN. THE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO VERY SLOWLY WEAKEN WHILE THE
RIDGE MIGRATES SLOWLY ACROSS PR NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS FOR USVI/PR THROUGH SUNDAY.
GFS AND ECMWF AGREE IN PUSHING THE BAND OF HIGHER PRECIPITABLE
WATER CURRENTLY N-NE OF LEEWARD ISLANDS SLOWLY WEST BUT FOLLOWING
THE RIDGE INTO USVI/PR EARLY MON. SO IN SPITE OF FAIR INSTABILITY
DO NOT EXPECT CONVECTION OVER PR TO BE MUCH DIFFERENT ON SAT/SUN
THAN IT WAS FRI. SO REDUCED THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS SLIGHTLY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

SOUTHERLY FLOW HELD OFF THE SEA BREEZE AT SAN JUAN FRI WHICH
CAUSED THE TEMPERATURE AT AIRPORT TO REACH 95. THIS FLOW IS ONLY
A LITTLE WEAKER TODAY AND MAV GUIDANCE GAVE 93 TODAY AND 92 ON
SUNDAY...LOOKED LIKE THE BETTER BET VS. MET GUIDANCE AT 91 BOTH
DAYS. BUT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH PRETTY TOASTY VALUES
AGAIN TODAY WHERE NO SEA BREEZE EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THRU THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WITH SOME VCSH POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND THE LEEWARD TERMINALS.
SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN AFT 26/17Z ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH
PR. AS A RESULT...BRIEF PDS OF MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE AT TJBQ AND TJMZ
THRU 26/21Z. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVRNGHT...BCMG E-SE BY 26/14Z
AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS...WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AND HIGHER GUSTS IN
AND NEAR SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...BOTH GFS AND ECMWF PUSH IDA REMNANTS WESTWARD AND STILL
BE NORTH OF USVI/PR BY MIDDLE/LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL PREVENT
HIGH PRESSURE FROM FORMING THAT WOULD INCREASE THE TRADES BEYOND
GENTLE/MODERATE ACROSS THE ISLANDS. HOWEVER A MINOR SWELL (4-6
FT) WILL REACH THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM THE REMNANTS AROUND MID-
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 93 80 92 78 / 20 10 20 20
STT 89 80 90 80 / 20 10 10 20

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Sept 27, 2015 4:19:31 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Sept 27, 2015 4:19:31 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
348 AM AST SUN SEP 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...TWO AREAS OF DRY AIR ARE ENCROACHING ON USVI/PR. ONE
IS CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE OTHER A LARGE
AREA DRAWN SOUTH BY TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA BETWEEN 60W AND 50W.
INBETWEEN THE DRY AREAS IS A NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE NEAR AND TO
THE NORTH OF LEEWARD ISLANDS AND MOVING SOUTHWEST. BUT MODELS DRY
THAT OUT SOMEWHAT BEFORE REACHING THE LOCAL AREA. GFS NO LONGER
SHOWS USVI/PR WITH MORE THAN A SEASONAL LEVEL OF PRECIPITABLE
WATER AT ANYTIME THIS WEEK THOUGH GFS AND ECMWF STILL AGREE IN
PUSHING THE BEST VALUES ACROSS ON MON/TUE.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A LITTLE THUNDER CAN BE EXPECTED OVER INTERIOR
TO WESTERN PR THIS AFTERNOON...SIMILAR TO LAST COUPLE OF DAYS AND
PROBABLY SOMEWHAT BETTER ON MON. ELSEWHERE CANNOT SEE MUCH MORE
THAN ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES OVERNIGHT WITH SOME
VCSH POSSIBLE. SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN AFT 27/16Z ACROSS WEST
AND NORTH PR. AS A RESULT...BRIEF PDS OF MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE AT TJBQ
AND TJMZ THRU 27/20Z. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVRNGHT...BCMG E-SE
BY 27/14Z AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS...WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AND HIGHER
GUSTS IN AND NEAR SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF IDA...CROSSING 50W TODAY AND
ANOTHER LOW JUST NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS WILL PREVENT HIGH
PRESSURE FROM DEVELOPING AND CAUSING THE USUAL TRADES...PERHAPS
ALL OF THIS WEEK. SOME UNUSUAL ALBEIT WEAK WIND FLOWS WILL INSTEAD
OCCUR. SEAS WILL ALSO CONTINUE LOW THROUGH AT LEAST MON THEN A 4
FT SWELL FROM IDA WILL ENTER ON TUE/WED FOR THE LOCAL ATLANTIC
COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 92 79 91 78 / 20 20 20 30
STT 89 80 90 78 / 10 20 20 30

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Sept 28, 2015 4:09:00 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Sept 28, 2015 4:09:00 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
502 AM AST MON SEP 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT EXTENDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS INTO
THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN...WILL LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY. THE
UPPER TROUGH IS TO THEN SLOWLY RETROGRESS WESTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN AND LOCAL FORECAST AREAS BY WEDNESDAY AND
DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WORKWEEK. IN THE MEANTIME...EXPECT
THE FORECAST AREA TO REMAIN ON THE SUBSIDENT SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
PROMOTING OVERALL STABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION.
IN THE LOW LEVELS.. NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN ACROSS
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC... AND ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN FAIRLY LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST
TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION AT LEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THEREAFTER...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS TO REESTABLISH NORTH OF THE AREA ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.DISCUSSION... LIMITED OR NO SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE ADVECTION
IS ANTICIPATED OR PRESENTLY NOTED ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THEREFORE...MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL...WITH
ONLY SOME LOCALLY AND DIURNALLY INDUCED CONVECTION EXPECTED TO BE
FORM MAINLY OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO. ELSEWHERE MOSTLY LIGHT EARLY MORNING AND AFTERNOON
SHOWERS EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND ADJACENT ISLANDS...INCLUDING
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. BY WEDNESDAY...AND FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE
WORKWEEK...AS TUTT SWINGS FURTHER WEST ACROSS THE REGION ...EXPECT
THE CAP INVERSION TO WEAKEN. THIS ALONG WITH SURGE OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN THE EASTERLIES SHOULD ALLOW FOR BETTER CHANCE OF SOME
ENHANCED AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ISLANDS. HOWEVER...
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE DO NOT SUGGEST WIDESPREAD LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SO
FOR NOW... MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
ISLANDS WITH SOME LOCALIZED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA DURING THE REST OF THE MORNING HOURS WITH VCSH ACROSS
TIST AND TISX. SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE AFTER 28/16Z ACROSS THE INTERIOR
AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...POSSIBLY CAUSING VCSH/VCTS FOR
TJBQ AND TJMZ. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY THIS MORNING...
BECOMING MOSTLY EASTERLY AFTER 28/14Z AT AROUND 10 KNOTS...WITH SEA
BREEZE VARIATIONS AND HIGHER GUSTS IN AND NEAR SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS SLIGHTLY INCREASING UP TO 5 FEET BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
DUE TO A SMALL NORTHERLY SWELL...WITH TRADE WINDS REMAINING BETWEEN
5 TO 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 92 80 92 79 / 20 30 30 20
STT 89 80 90 78 / 20 30 30 40

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Sept 29, 2015 4:18:08 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Sept 29, 2015 4:18:08 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
526 AM AST TUE SEP 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD TUTT CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS EXTENDING
SOUTHWEST INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. RECENT SATELLITE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SUGGESTS REGION REMAINS ON SUBSIDENT SIDE OF TUTT. THIS
WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE TO LIMIT SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ACROSS
THE REGION. IN THE LOW LEVEL...THE INFLUENCE OF TROPICAL STORM
JOAQUIN OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC AND ATLANTIC HIGH PULLING
FURTHER NORTHWARD ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...WILL MAINTAIN A
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND THUS LIGHT EAST SOUTHEAST TRADE WINDS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. BOTH SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE BLENDED
PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT SUGGEST A MOSTLY DRY AIR MASS AND
STABLE CONDITIONS PREVAILING ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH ONLY A FEW BRIEF LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS
NOTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND JUST OFF THE COAST OF SOME OF
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND EASTERN OF PUERTO RICO. THE TUTT IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS THEN
MEANDER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
THEREAFTER... IT WILL BEGIN TO FILL ON SATURDAY AND OVER THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS ALOFT AND SPREADS
OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT DUE TO
THE LOOSE PRESSURE GRADIENT... IN RESPONSE TO SURFACE ATLANTIC
HIGH LIFTING NORTHWARD..AND TROPICAL STORM JOAQUIN MOVING ACROSS
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THESE CONDITIONS WILL FAVOR FAIRLY STRONG
SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE IN SOME AREAS...WHICH WILL LEAD TO SOME
AFTERNOON CONVECTION...MAINLY OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND THE
WEST INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. NO SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE
ADVECTION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ....WITH MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING PRECIPITABLE WATER DECREASING TO BELOW 1.50 INCHES
THROUGH FRIDAY ...THEN SLIGHTLY INCREASING ONCE AGAIN OVER THE
WEEKEND. UNDER STABLE CONDITIONS AND THE INFLUENCE OF OVERALL DRY
AIR MASS...ANY CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL BE OF SHORT
DURATION AND NOT WIDESPREAD. SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THEREFORE EXPECT ONLY SHORT LIVED LOCALLY AND
DIURNALLY INDUCED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EACH
DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE
LOCAL FLYING AREA THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND
TJMZ AND TJBQ FROM 29/17Z THROUGH 29/22Z IN SHRA/TSRA. ESE WINDS 10
TO 15 KNOTS WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
AFTER 29/22Z.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL TO MODERATE NORTHERLY SWELLS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS
OF THE LOCAL WATERS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN SEAS OF 3-5
FEET MAINLY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND CARIBBEAN PASSAGES. SEAS
WILL AGAIN SUBSIDE TO 2-4 FEET ONCE AGAIN BY THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 91 78 92 79 / 20 20 30 20
STT 90 79 90 80 / 20 40 40 30

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Oct 1, 2015 4:12:24 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Oct 1, 2015 4:12:24 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
358 AM AST THU OCT 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION UNTIL AT LEAST FRIDAY. AS
THIS TROUGH WEAKENS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD FROM
THE WEST INTO THE REGION DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE BROAD
CIRCULATION OF HURRICANE JOAQUIN WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR INDICATED ONLY FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE SURROUNDING WATERS...BUT NOT SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION WAS DETECTED OVER LAND AREAS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
THIS MORNING AS A STRONG CAP INVERSION EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS
THE REGION AT LEAST UNTIL THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLOSE
THE REGION IN AN UNFAVORABLE POSITION FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS UNTIL AT LEAST FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THE LIMITED MOISTURE
ACROSS THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO COMBINE EACH DAY WITH DAYTIME
HEATING...SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND LOCAL EFFECTS TO INDUCE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME SHOWERS AND A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY
TO THE NORTH OF CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND INTERIOR PUERTO RICO EACH
AFTERNOON.

THE LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW ASSOCIATED
WITH A BROAD CIRCULATION OF HURRICANE JOAQUIN...WELL NORTH OF
HISPANIOLA...WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL AREAS OF PUERTO
RICO WHERE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID
90S. AS HURRICANE JOAQUIN MOVES FURTHER NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BECOME MOIST WITH BETTER
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND THEREAFTER.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
PD. AFT 01/16Z BRIEF MVFR CONDS AND MTN TOP OBSCURATIONS WILL BE
PSBL DUE TO ISOLD SHRA/TSRA DVLPG OVR PR TILL 01/22Z. SSE WINDS 5 TO
15 KNOTS EXCEPT FOR SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS ALG COASTS WITH OCNL
HIGHER GUSTS. NO OTHER SIG OPERATIONAL IMPACTS ATTM.

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE NORTH NORTHEAST SWELL OF TO 4 TO 6 FEET WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND CARIBBEAN PASSAGES
TODAY. LARGE BREAKING WAVES ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES WILL
MAINTAIN A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR MOST OF THE BEACHES
ALONG NORTH PUERTO RICO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 96 79 95 79 / 0 0 20 30
STT 90 82 88 83 / 10 10 20 30

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Oct 2, 2015 4:06:19 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Oct 2, 2015 4:06:19 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
549 AM AST FRI OCT 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE NORTH NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA WILL BREAK OFF AND MOVE WEST WHILE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES INTO
THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. BY MONDAY A RELATIVELY STRONG RIDGE WILL
HAVE FORMED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS HISPANIOLA. FROM MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO THE EASTERN
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND WEAKEN WHILE ANOTHER WEAK LOW MOVES FROM
EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO OVER SAINT JOHN. AFTER THIS TUESDAY
WINDS ARE LESS THAN 20 KNOTS.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC
WILL DRIFT WEST AND NORTH THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY UNTIL IT DOMINATES
THE LATITUDES BETWEEN 20 AND 30 NORTH ACROSS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.
MOISTURE WILL STREAM OUT OF SOUTH AMERICA FROM THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST
AND PASS OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS BY THIS
AFTERNOON...CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY. MOISTURE DIMINISHES
SLIGHTLY LATER NEXT WEEK.

AT LOWER LEVELS...REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM IDA ARE NORTHEAST OF
THE AREA. MAJOR HURRICANE JOAQUIN IS OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.
THEY ARE EXPECTED TO MERGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC EAST OF THE
CAROLINAS BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL HOLD SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA.
AFTER MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
FROM EASTERN CANADA FORCING A RIDGE OVER THE AREA OUT OF THAT
HIGH. THAT RIDGE WILL SHIFT NORTH AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. WINDS
WILL TURN MORE SOUTHEASTERLY IN THE PROCESS. MOISTURE INCREASES
TONIGHT AND WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY FAVORABLE SATURDAY. TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WILL ALSO BE SOMEWHAT MOIST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS WERE ISOLATED OVERNIGHT BUT MANAGED TO
DAMPEN MUCH OF THE THE SOUTH AND EAST COASTS OF PUERTO RICO. NO
SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED IN THE VICINITY OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
ALTHOUGH A FEW APPROACHED FROM SOUTH OF SAINT CROIX. A PLUME OF
MOISTURE WILL FORM FROM SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT OF SOUTH AMERICA
GENERATED BY MAJOR HURRICANE JOAQUIN AND THE MOISTURE THAT HAS
BEEN MOVING NORTHWEST OVER THE EASTERN BOUNDARY OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO OVER 2
INCHES TONIGHT OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND REMAIN ABOVE AT LEAST
1.9 INCHES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. STABILITY...HOWEVER INCREASES
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING AND THEN MOVES IN A RANGE THROUGH MID
WEEK NEXT WEEK. ALSO UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE SUCH THAT LITTLE IF
ANY STRONG DIVERGENCE IS CREATED OVER LAND AREAS DURING THIS MOIST
EPISODE. THIS WILL BE NEITHER FAVORABLE TO WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN
OR THUNDERSTORMS BUT MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP SHOWERS
IN THE FORECAST WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND
GENERATE BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN EVERYWHERE IN THE AREA IN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DRIFT OVER THE
ATLANTIC FROM PUERTO RICO AND CONTINUE SOME TIME INTO EACH NIGHT.
MOISTURE THEN DIMINISHES A LITTLE AND INSTABILITY RISES SOME
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL STILL ALLOW SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO POP UP EACH DAY THROUGH
SATURDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. -SHRA OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS COULD
CREATE BRIEF VCSH ACROSS THE LEEWARD...USVI AND SOUTHERN PR
TERMINALS. AFTER 02/16Z SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY TO THE
SOUTH AND OVER THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL. AS A RESULT...BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT TJPS...TJMZ...TJSJ AND TISX UNTIL
02/22Z. A S TO SW WIND FLOW AT 5 TO 10 KTS IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL...INCREASING A 10 TO 15 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS FROM THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM IDA CONTINUE TO
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. SEAS WILL NOT SUBSIDE SIGNIFICANTLY UNTIL
SUNDAY IN THE ATLANTIC. RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS IN THE
CARIBBEAN WILL ROUGHEN SOMEWHAT NOW THROUGH TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED...MARINERS MAY
NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION IN SOME AREAS AS WINDS AND SEAS
INCREASE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 95 78 93 77 / 30 50 50 30
STT 88 81 88 78 / 40 50 50 30

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Oct 3, 2015 4:29:13 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Oct 3, 2015 4:29:13 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
545 AM AST SAT OCT 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH ALLOWING A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVER PUERTO RICO TONIGHT AND OVER
HISPANIOLA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT BACK ACROSS
PUERTO RICO ON TUESDAY. A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA LATER NEXT WEEK...BUT HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE
DOMINANT INFLUENCE.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CARIBBEAN FROM
THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC AS MAJOR HURRICANE JOAQUIN MOVES NORTHEAST
AND AWAY FROM THE AREA. A PLUME OF MOISTURE PRESENT OVER THE AREA
AT MID LEVELS WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT
FRINGES OF THE AREA OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PUERTO
RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS UNTIL MOISTURE FROM A TROPICAL
WAVE MOVES OVER THE LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

AT LOWER LEVELS...MOISTURE FLOWING FROM THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST INTO
JOAQUIN WILL PASS OVER THE LOCAL AREA THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY
ALTERNATING PATCHES OF DRIER AIR AND MODEST MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST WHEN FLOW TURNS. AS JOAQUIN MOVES NORTHEAST AND AWAY
FROM THE AREA HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA AFTER
SUNDAY AND WEST ACROSS THE WATERS TO OUR NORTH BEGINNING
MONDAY...ALLOWING LOW LEVEL FLOW TO BECOME EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN MOVING INTO
PUERTO RICO OVERNIGHT WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING EARLIER
DURING THE NIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSHOWERS PASSED THROUGH SAINT
CROIX JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT AND THEN MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY ENDED FOR
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE CLIMBED CONSIDERABLY DURING THE
LAST 24 HOURS. THE GFS HAS SUGGESTED THAT THE LIFTED INDEX WILL
REACH ITS HIGHEST VALUE DURING THE DAY TODAY...OSTENSIBLY BECAUSE
TEMPERATURES AT 500 MB ARE RISING. THIS WILL COUNTERACT THE EFFECT
OF THE 850 MB MOISTURE WHICH WILL BE BEST AT 03/18Z OVER THE SOUTH
COAST THAN AT ANY TIME NEXT WEEK. ALSO MID CLOUDS SHOULD DECREASE
THE SUNSHINE OVER THE AREA CAUSING OVERALL PRECIPITATION TO BE
LESS CONVECTIVE AND LESS WIDESPREAD THAN OTHERWISE MIGHT HAVE BEEN
EXPECTED WITH GOOD MOISTURE IN FLOW STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTH.
THIS WAS ALSO THE REASON THAT WE HAVE HELD THE TEMPERATURE SEVERAL
DEGREES UNDER THE 94 DEGREES THAT MOS WAS FORECASTING FOR SAN
JUAN TODAY AND THE 95 DEGREES IT WAS HERALDING FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. THE HIGH SATURDAY WAS ALSO AFFECTED AND CAME IN TWO
DEGREES UNDER THE HIGH THAT MOST FORECAST AT 93 DEGREES.

AFTER MONDAY...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE MODEST OVER THE AREA
UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK WHEN A TROPICAL WAVE SHOULD BRING AN INCREASE
IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...UNDER THE PREVAILING SOUTH WIND FLOW...SHRA/TSRA ARE
STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN SLOPES OF THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL
OF PR...ST CROIX AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
AS A RESULT...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
TJPS/TISX/TNCM/TKPK. SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST THE EVENING HRS.
A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW AT 5 TO 15 KT AND LOCALLY HIGHER
IN/NEAR SHRA/TSRA IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL...INCREASING AT 10 TO 20
KTS AFTER 03/16Z. EXPECT MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS TO INCREASE AFT
03/16Z.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS HAVE RISEN SOMEWHAT DURING THE LAST 48
HOURS. THEY WERE OVER 7 FEET AND 18 KNOTS AT THE OUTER BUOY AND
ALMOST 6 FEET AND 20 KNOTS IN THE LOCAL OUTER WATERS. THE INNER
BUOY AT SAN JUAN WAS ONLY READING 3 FEET OWING TO A SHADOWING
EFFECT FROM SOUTH WINDS. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD ABATE AND REACH AN
INTERIM MINIMUM ON MONDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT
EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 92 80 93 79 / 30 20 40 30
STT 88 77 88 81 / 50 40 50 40

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Oct 3, 2015 13:32:22 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Oct 3, 2015 13:32:22 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
308 PM AST SAT OCT 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD FROM THE
SOUTHWEST OVER EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MAJOR
HURRICANE JOAQUIN LOCATED OVER THE BAHAMAS WILL CONTINUE TO INDUCE
A SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP TO ADVECT DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE AREA
THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. EASTERLY WINDS WILL RETURN BY MIDWEEK
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO
INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
REGIONAL WATERS AND PORTIONS OF THE ISLANDS. THE MOST INTENSE
RAINFALL SO FAR TODAY OCCURRED OVER SAINT THOMAS WHERE RAIN GAGES
MEASURED RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS IN EXCESS OF 4 INCHES ESPECIALLY
OVER THE CYRIL KING AIRPORT. OTHER AREAS OF ST. JOHN AND THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF PR RECEIVED BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES OF RAIN SINCE
THIS MORNING. HOT TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ONCE AGAIN
ACROSS MOST OF THE ISLANDS TODAY. THE THERMOMETER REACHED 93
DEGREES ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AT THE LUIS MUNOZ MARIN
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT.

DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE ACROSS THE LOCAL
REGION THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. LOOKS LIKE THE REST OF TODAY AND
TONIGHT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ADVECT OVER THE
ISLANDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. LOCAL HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST
THAT THE BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL OCCUR TONIGHT OVER THE
CARIBBEAN WATERS AND MONA PASSAGE. AS A RESULT...EXPECT A FEW
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS. ON SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL MOST
OF THE DAY...WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS GRADUALLY DECREASING BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THEN...MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING
THE WEEK AS THE AFOREMENTIONED MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES
THE LOCAL AREA. OVERALL...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS EARLY SUNDAY...
BECOMING DRIER AND MORE STABLE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. EASTERLIES
WILL RETURN AGAIN LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN
TYPICAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY OVER WESTERN PR THE
REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...UNDER THE PREVAILING S WIND FLOW...SHRA/TSRA ARE STILL
EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHERN AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PR...AS WELL AS
THE USVI. AS A RESULT...PERIODS OF MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING. A S TO SE WIND FLOW AT 10 TO 15 KT AND LOCALLY HIGHER
IN/NEAR SHRA/TSRA IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...PULSES OF MODERATE NNW SWELL OF 4-6 FEET WILL REACH THE
ATLANTIC WATERS LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL PULSES OF
NORTHERN SWELLS WILL REACH THE ATLANTIC WATERS AS MAJOR HURRICANE
JOAQUIN MOVE NORTHWARD OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 80 93 79 93 / 20 40 30 20
STT 77 88 81 89 / 20 50 40 20

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Puerto Rico Weather

Post by cycloneye on Sept 19, 2015 4:11:48 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Sept 20, 2015 4:01:17 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Sept 21, 2015 4:10:51 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Sept 22, 2015 3:56:15 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Sept 23, 2015 4:07:23 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Sept 24, 2015 4:17:52 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Sept 25, 2015 4:04:56 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Sept 26, 2015 4:16:17 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Sept 27, 2015 4:19:31 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Sept 28, 2015 4:09:00 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Sept 29, 2015 4:18:08 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Oct 1, 2015 4:12:24 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Oct 2, 2015 4:06:19 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Oct 3, 2015 4:29:13 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Oct 3, 2015 13:32:22 GMT -6

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