Puerto Rico Weather

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
558 AM AST THU OCT 8 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST APPROACHING THE
LOCAL AREA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION STARTING THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS SEEN OVERNIGHT
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS...AS THE LEADING EDGE OF A TROPICAL WAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE EAST. TROPICAL WAVE WAS LOCATED FEW HUNDRED
MILES EAST OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS MORNING. THIS WAVE IS
ACCOMPANY BY A BIG AREA OF MOISTURE. THEREFORE...DAYTIME HEATING
WILL COMBINE WITH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE TO PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...REST OF PUERTO RICO COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM TIME TO TIME AS MOISTURE INCREASES FROM
THE EAST. PWAT VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THIS WAVE. VALUES OF AROUND 2.2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY AS THE BULK OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS WAVE AFFECTS THE LOCAL REGION. FOR THE WEEKEND...A DRIER AIR
MASS IS EXPECTED TO ENCOMPASS THE REGION...LIMITING THE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA/TSRA WILL INCREASE LATER TODAY AND FRIDAY AS A
TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA. VCSH/VCTS
ACROSS POSSIBLE AT MOST OF THE TAF SITES...MVFR CONDS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT AT TJMZ AND TJBQ THIS AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL ENE WINDS
AROUND 10-15 KT WILL PREVAIL UNTIL TONIGHT...VEERING FM THE SE
EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 6 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE MONA PASSAGE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 81 90 79 / 40 50 40 20
STT 89 83 89 83 / 40 60 50 20

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
610 AM AST SAT OCT 10 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL HOLD
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THEN...UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST
OVER THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLOWLY MOVE
OVER THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...PROVIDING A
DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS EARLY NEXT WEEK. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE JUST NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE
A SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA...RESULTING IN HOT TEMPS ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UPPER TROUGH WEST OF THE REGION HAS PROVIDED THE
ENERGY TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE REGION. SOME SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO MOVE
INLAND OVER PORTIONS OF THE USVI...SOUTHWEST AND EASTERN PR SINCE
MIDNIGHT. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OVER LAND HAVE BEEN GENERALLY
LESS THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH SO FAR THIS MORNING. PLENTY OF
MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA TODAY...AS A RESULT ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE ISLANDS LATER TODAY.

AN USUAL SAHARAN AIR LAYER CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE ISLANDS OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THEREFORE...SUSPENDED SAHARAN PARTICLES WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HAZY SKIES ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY.

MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE DURING THE REST
OF THE WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK AS UPPER TROUGH FILLS AND MID-UPPER
RIDGE ESTABLISHES OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY. ALTHOUGH...MORE STABLE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK...TRADE WINDS WILL PUSH PATCHES
OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN REGION. AS A RESULT...
A TYPICAL WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS PR/USVI NEXT WEEK
WITH BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS OVER THE WINDWARD AREA AT NIGHTS AND
EARLY IN THE MORNING...FOLLOWED BY LOCALIZED AFTERNOON CONVECTION
OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST PORTIONS OF PR EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
AT LEAST 10/18Z. PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
IN SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED AFT 10/18Z OVER NW PR...AFFECTING
TJMZ AND TJBQ THROUGH ABOUT 10/23Z. LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOMING MAINLY
SE AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS AFT 10/15Z WITH SOME SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS OF 3-5 FEET AND WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED IN
THE SEA STATE OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 92 79 91 78 / 20 20 20 10
STT 90 81 89 80 / 20 20 20 20

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
521 AM AST MON OCT 12 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. TUTT AND ASSOCIATED LOW WILL
THEN ESTABLISH ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN
FRIDAY AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE
ALOFT RELOCATES TO OUR WEST. SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE A MODERATE EASTERLY WIND FLOW
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH PASSING SHOWERS OBSERVED
ACROSS SAINT THOMAS...SAINT JOHN AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO. RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY WERE MINIMAL. WINDS
WERE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH OR LESS WITH COASTAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.

MOISTURE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE LIMITED TO LOW LEVELS
WITH MID LEVELS REMAINING FAIRLY DRY. ACCORDING WITH THE LATEST
WRF AND GFS GUIDANCE...PRECIPITABLE WATER IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR
NORMAL VALUES MUCH OF THIS WEEK. THEREFORE UNDER NORMAL PW AND
RIDGE ALOFT...LOCAL WEATHER REGIME WILL BE DOMINATED BY DIURNAL
HEATING...LOCAL EFFECTS AND SEA BREEZES.

CONTINUE TO EXPECT PASSING SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE TRADES ACROSS
WINDWARD AREAS IN THE MORNING AND EVENING HOURS...FOLLOWED BY
SHOWERS AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER AND WEST OF THE
CORDILLERA EACH DAY. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TJMZ AND TJBQ WHICH HAS
POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR CONDS AS SHRA/TSRA DEVELOP IN THE GENERAL
VICINITY BETWEEN 12/17Z AND 12/22Z. TEMPO GROUPS FOR TJBQ AND TJMZ
NOT IN TAF DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF ACTUALLY AFFECTING THE STATIONS...
VCSH/VCTS LIKELY. BRIEF -SHRA CAUSING VCSH ELSEWHERE DURING THE DAY.
EASTERLY SFC WINDS AT ABOUT 10KT WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS DURING
THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET UNDER EASTERLY WINDS AT 15 KNOTS OR
LESS. OCCASIONAL SEAS UP TO 6 FEET EXPECTED TODAY MAINLY ACROSS
THE OFFSHORE CARIBBEAN WATERS. MARINE CONDITIONS WILL SEE LITTLE
CHANGE DURING THE NEXT 7 TO 10 DAYS AND NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 80 90 79 / 30 40 40 30
STT 91 79 90 79 / 30 30 30 30

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
557 AM AST WED OCT 14 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
PROMOTE MODERATE EAST TO EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...THEN WINDS WILL DECREASE AS THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OT THE NORTHEAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. THEN TUTT WILL ESTABLISH
EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND MEANDER ALOFT UNTIL EARLY NEXT
WEEK. TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TODAY...BRINGING
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE TO THE CARIBBEAN WATERS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PASSING SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED ALL NIGHT OVER THE
LOCAL WATERS WITH A FEW SHOWERS MOVING INTO LAND AREAS...BUT
LEAVING LITTLE IN TERMS OF ACCUMULATIONS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS
MOVING THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA TODAY...CAUSING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. SCATTERED
PASSING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. THEN IN THE AFTERNOON...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS...USVI...AND EASTERN PR...WITH
LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PR AS WELL AS THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT. SOME
OF THE SHOWERS COULD BE HEAVY AND URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.


OTHER THAN THAT...WE EXPECT THE SAME PATTERN OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. NEAR NORMAL MOISTURE COMBINING WITH LOCAL EFFECTS IN
ORDER TO CAUSE THE DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF
PR...WITH PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE USVI AND EASTERN PR DURING
THE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS.

EVEN WITH THE TUTT NEARBY FOR THIS WEEKEND...THE TRUTH IS THAT WE
ARE IN THE SUBSIDENT SIDE OF THE TUTT WHICH IS NOT CONDUCIVE FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. THE ONLY DIFFERENCE MAY
BE THAT WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH A LITTLE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
SURFACE LOW MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST...WHICH MAY CAUSE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS A BIT FURTHER EAST THAN
IT HAS BEEN THE LAST FEW DAYS...ALSO CAUSING THE SHOWERS TO REMAIN
OVER ANY ONE POINT FOR A BIT LONGER THAN IT HAS BEEN FOR THE PAST
FEW DAYS.


&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH VCSH POSSIBLE AT THE LEEWARD AND USVI
TERMINALS AS WELL AS JSJ THIS MORNING. MOUNTAIN OBSC AND SHRA/TSRA
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND WESTERN PR BTWN
14/16Z-14/23Z....RESULTING IN PERIODS OF MVFR CONDS AT JMZ/JBQ. JSJ
MAY OBSERVE VCSH/VCTS IN THE AFTERNOON. ESE SFC WINDS AT 10-15KT AND
GUSTY WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AFT 14/12Z.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL CONTINUE BETWEEN 3 TO 5 FEET. WNDS WILL
CONTINUE MAINLY FROM THE EAST TO EAST SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 10-20
KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 91 78 90 79 / 30 30 30 20
STT 90 79 89 79 / 20 40 40 30

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
535 AM AST SAT OCT 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE EAST
OF THE AREA GENERATING NORTHERLY FLOW. A TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC LATER NEXT WEEK TO REVERSE THE FLOW.

AT MID LEVELS...WEAK LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES EAST OF THE AREA IN A
BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS NORTH OF
HISPANIOLA LATER NEXT WEEK AND MOVES NORTH. MID LEVELS HAVE MODEST
MOISTURE UNTIL LATER NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE THEN INCREASES.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE EASTERN CENTRAL ATLANTIC
MOVES NORTHEAST ALLOWING A SECOND HIGH TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC BY MONDAY...MAINTAINING EAST TO SOUTHEAST TRADE WINDS.
TROUGHINESS OVER CUBA AND HISPANIOLA BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED BY
MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. THE CURRENT MODEL SOLUTION SHOWS A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVELOPING THURSDAY OR FRIDAY WHICH WOULD PULL UP COPIOUS
MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH IF IT DEVELOPS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...NUMEROUS SHOWERS WERE SEEN MOVING THROUGH THE LOCAL
WATERS...SOME OF WHICH HAD HEAVY RAIN. ALTHOUGH NO LIGHTNING WAS
DETECTED...SOME TOPS EXCEEDED 40 KFT. THE CURRENT PATTERN HAS BEEN
FAVORABLE TO PASSING SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS OVER PUERTO
RICO WITH A FEW ALSO MOVING THROUGH THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.
CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE DURING
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS ABOVE 1.7 INCHES
EVEN ON THE DRIEST DAYS. THE MODEL HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE
TEMPERATURES NOW THAT SHOWERS ARE MORE ABUNDANT AND THE WINDS ARE
MORE EASTERLY. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE...THOUGH THAT WILL NOT
MEAN RELIEF IN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS FROM THE LOW 90 DEGREE
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES THAT HAVE OCCURRED ON ALL BUT ONE DAY THIS
MONTH IN SAN JUAN.

THE GFS IS APPARENTLY NOT HANDLING THE SITUATION WITH THE
CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WELL. THE 16/18Z RUN SHOWED
A COLD CORE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LATER
NEXT WEEK. BUT WHEN THE 17/00Z RUN CAME IN...IT WAS DEVELOPING A
LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF HISPANIOLA IN RESPONSE TO A DIGGING TROUGH
THAT IT QUICKLY SPUN INTO A TROPICAL STORM AND MOVED NORTH WITH A
LEFT HOOK FAKE-OUT. THIS APPEARS TO BE A REASONABLE SCENARIO...AND
SHOULD IT DEVELOP...IT WILL BRING COPIOUS MOISTURE FROM SOUTH
AMERICA IN SOUTHERLY FLOW AT NEARLY ALL LEVELS BEGINNING THURSDAY
AND CONTINUING INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE LAST WEEK OF OCTOBER.
WILL MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF FLOODING IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK FOR NEXT WEEK...BUT IT MUST BE UNDERSTOOD THAT THIS IS
VERY UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT. NEVERTHELESS THE SOIL SATURATION WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH THE MORE PERSISTENT SHOWERS THAT HAVE
BEEN CROSSING PUERTO RICO. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL ALSO AFFECT THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...AT THIS TIME THE SHOWERS THEY ARE
EXPERIENCING ARE NOT AS HEAVY AND HAVE BEEN PASSING IN NATURE. IF
LONG STREAMS OF CONVECTION DEVELOP IN SOUTHERLY FLOW NEXT WEEK HOWEVER
THEY COULD ALSO RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU MOST OF THE FCST
PERIOD. HOWEVER...-SHRA EMBEDDED IN TRADE WINDS WILL CREATE VCSH
WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF RA BETWEEN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE
USVI/EASTERN PR TERMINALS THRU SATURDAY MORNING. BETWEEN 16Z-
22Z...MTN TOP OBSC AND SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND THE LUQUILLO RANGE WITH MVFR CONDS
IMPACTING MAINLY TJBQ/TJMZ. ALSO...VCTS AT TJSJ CAN NOT BE RULED
OUT. ESE WINDS AT 8-15 KT BELOW 10 KFT...NORTHERLY ABOVE AND
INCREASING WITH HEIGHT. SEA BREEZES AFT 14Z.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS GENERALLY DIMINISH THROUGH 20/00Z...MONDAY
NIGHT...AS WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. SOUTHERLY WINDS
LATER NEXT WEEK MEAN THAT SEAS WILL GROW SOMEWHAT IN THE
CARIBBEAN...BUT ATLANTIC WAVES MAY ALSO EMANATE FROM A POSSIBLE
TROPICAL STORM SHOULD IT DEVELOP. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 80 89 81 / 50 40 70 20
STT 88 79 88 80 / 60 60 70 50

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
509 AM AST MON OCT 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS
BETWEEN TWO SFC HIGHS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TUTT OVER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY THE END OF THE WEEK. LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.DISCUSSION...IT WAS MOSTLY CLEAR OVER LAND AREAS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SHOWERS REMAINED OVER THE WATERS AS THEY SLOWLY
DRIFTED NORTH...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN THE
PAST FEW HOURS OVER THE OFFSHORE CARIBBEAN WATERS. SOME OF THESE
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH SECTIONS OF THE USVI AND SOUTHEASTERN
PR DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. IN THE AFTERNOON...SLOW MOVING
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAIN RANGES OF
PR. THEY WILL REMAIN OR MOVE SLOW OVER THE SAME AREAS...CAUSING
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND FLOODING IN
SMALL STREAMS AND URBAN AREAS. MUDSLIDES ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
HEAVIEST SHOWERS IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.

FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...SIMILAR DIURNAL AFTERNOON
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EACH DAY AS LIGHT SOUTHERLY
STEERING WINDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. BY THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK...AN UPPER TROUGH WITH ASSOCIATED LOW ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
NORTH OF THE HISPANIOLA. THIS WILL TURN WINDS MORE FROM THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST AND WILL BRING MORE TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA.
THIS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH FAVORABLE UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL RESULT IN A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDS THRU THE FCST PRD. SFC WND LGT/VRB TO
CALM TIL 19/13Z... FOLLOWED BY LOCAL SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AFT
19/14Z. LGT SOUTHERLY WND BLO FL100...BCMG FM N AND GRADUALLY INCR
TO 15-20 KTS ABV. LCL AND DIURNAL EFFECTS WILL LEAD TO AFTN CONVTN
OVR PARTS OF W AND NRN HALF OF PR ALONG CORDILLERA CENTRAL...AND
VCTY TJSJ...TJPS...TJBQ...AND TJMZ FM 19/18Z-19/22Z WITH ISOLD
TSRA/BRIEF MVFR/IFR PSBL.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL CONTINUE AT LESS THAN 4 FEET THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY...A NW SWELL IS FORECAST TO REACH THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND MONA PASSAGE...BUILDING THE SEAS UP TO 6 FEET.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 79 89 77 / 40 20 20 20
STT 88 79 88 78 / 30 30 30 20