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cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Oct 22, 2015 4:11:14 GMT -6

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Post by cycloneye on Oct 22, 2015 4:11:14 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
541 AM AST THU OCT 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS FEATURE WILL BE ABSORBED BY A MID
TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL SINK FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY FRIDAY. AN INDUCED INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR
CONTINUE TO SHOW FEW SHALLOW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND MOSTLY LIGHT
PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. A FEW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO REACH PORTIONS OF THE EAST COASTAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO AND SOME OF THE ADJACENT ISLANDS DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. FOR THE REST OF THE DAY MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER SKIES SHOULD
PREVAIL. HOWEVER....THE LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL AGAIN
GIVE WAY TO LOCAL SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
LATER IN THE DAY. AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST
TO DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. VERY LITTLE OF NO SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE U.S VIRGIN ISLANDS TODAY AS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
WILL PREVAIL.

BY FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...MODEL GUIDANCE STILL SUGGEST THAT
THE UPPER TROUGH OUR EAST WILL MERGE WITH THE AMPLIFYING TROUGH
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THEN LIFT NORTHWARDS ACROSS THE REGION
OVER THE WEEKEND. THE INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH ALONG WITH A DEVELOPING
LOW NORTH OF THE REGION WILL ALSO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE
COMBINATION OF THE TROUGH ALOFT AND THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
ZONE INDUCED BY THE SURFACE TROUGH...WILL SUPPORT UNSTABLE CONDITIONS
FOR THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE EXPECTED
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR A BETTER CHANCE FOR
ORGANIZED CONVECTION ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND COASTAL WATERS ESPECIALLY
ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THEREFORE URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE EACH DAY IN ISOLATED AREAS BUT MAINLY ACROSS PUERTO
RICO.

&&

.AVIATION....MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS MORNING ACROSS
THE LOCAL FLYING AREA WITH VCSH ACROSS THE EASTERN TERMINALS OF TIST
AND TISX AND TJSJ. SURFACE WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT/VARIABLE UNTIL
22/13Z...BECOMING FROM ESE AND GRADUALLY INCREASING TO 5-10 KTS WITH
SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AFTER 22/14. LOCAL AND DIURNAL EFFECTS WILL
LEAD TO AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF WESTERN
AND NORTHER HALF OF PUERTO RICO...ALONG CORDILLERA CENTRAL...AND
VCTY TJSJ...TJPS...TJBQ...AND TJMZ FROM 22/18Z-22/22Z WITH MOUNTAINS
OBSCURATIONS AND ISOLATED TSRA/SHRA INDUCING BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUED TO UNDERESTIMATE THE NORTHERLY SWELL
ACTION AS SUGGESTED BY THE LOCAL AND OFFSHORE BUOYS TO THE NORTH.
RECENT DATA FROM BUOY 41053 AND 41043 BOTH SUGGEST THE SWELL SLOWLY
SUBSIDING...BUT STILL AROUND 7 FEET AT 11 SECS. THEREFORE IT WAS
DECIDED TO KEEP THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY AND STRONG RIP CURRENT
STATEMENTIN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM AST THIS MORNING....PENDING
FURTHER REVISION/UPDATE IF NECESSARY. LIKEWISE...SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS
AND LOCAL PASSAGES UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 79 88 79 / 40 20 20 20
STT 88 79 88 78 / 30 30 30 30

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Oct 23, 2015 4:55:23 GMT -6

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Post by cycloneye on Oct 23, 2015 4:55:23 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
545 AM AST FRI OCT 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MID TO UPPER LEVEL LEVEL TROUGH JUST WEST OF THE AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY AND SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN THOUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED
DESTABILIZATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL ATMOSPHERE AND DEPLETION OF
LOCAL CAP INVERSION TODAY AND OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AN ELONGATED
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE SOUTHWEST
ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY TRADE WINDS. THIS WILL
HELP CREATE A MOIST CONVERGENCE ZONE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
BEGINNING TODAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK
WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO PEAK AROUND TWO INCHES OR SO LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR
SHOWED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE SETTING UP ACROSS THE REGION
WITH CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION NOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF
THE OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS....AND SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS BETWEEN EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND THE WATERS
SURROUNDING THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. FOR THE REST OF TODAY...THE COMBINATION
OF BREEZE VARIATIONS...AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING ACROSS THE
REGION WILL SUPPORT SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
THE ISLANDS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE FOCUSED
MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERIOR AND NORTHERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO
INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE SAN JUAN METRO AREA. SOME OF THE ACTIVITY
MAY BE ENHANCED WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED BUT STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
IN SOME AREAS. THIS WILL LEAD TO URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING.

OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST
WINDS TO CONTINUE TO VEER AND BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY BUT REMAIN LIGHT.
THEREFORE EXPECT DIURNAL CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO BE FOCUSED ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF AND EAST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND OVER PORTIONS
OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. SO FAR MODELS STILL SUGGEST THE BEST POTENTIAL
FOR BETTER ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS ON SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS MORNING ACROSS
THE LOCAL FLYING AREA WITH VCSH ACROSS THE EASTERN TERMINALS OF
TIST...TISX AND TJSJ. SURFACE WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT/VARIABLE UNTIL
23/13Z...BECOMING FROM ESE AND GRADUALLY INCREASING TO 5-10 KTS WITH
SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AFTER 23/14. INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION IN
COMBINATION WITH LOCAL AND DIURNAL EFFECTS WILL LEAD TO AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN HALF AND WESTERN
PUERTO RICO...ALONG CORDILLERA CENTRAL...AND VCTY TJSJ...TJBQ...AND
TJMZ FROM 23/18Z-23/22Z WITH MOUNTAINS OBSCURATIONS AND ISOLATED
TSRA/SHRA INDUCING PERIODS OF MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...RECENT DATA FROM THE SURROUNDING AND OFFSHORE BUOYS SUGGEST
MARINE CONDITIONS HAVE CONTINUED TO IMPROVE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS
AND LOCAL PASSAGES...AS THE NORTHERLY SWELLS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE. SMALL
CRAFT SHOULD HOWEVER EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS
DUE TO SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FEET. FOR LOCAL BEACHGOERS AND VISITORS THERE
IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR ALL OF THE NORTH FACING BEACHES
OF PUERTO RICO INCLUDING CULEBRA AND SAINT THOMAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 91 76 89 79 / 20 20 20 30
STT 88 78 88 78 / 40 30 30 30

&&

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Oct 24, 2015 3:58:23 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Oct 24, 2015 3:58:23 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
525 AM AST SAT OCT 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE
REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...DEVELOPING INTO AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT. THE LOCAL ISLANDS WILL REMAIN IN
A SURFACE COL UNTIL SUNDAY. THESE FEATURES WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT
AND VARIABLE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. TROP1CAL MOISTURE
WILL MAINTAIN A VERY UNSTABLE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION
UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY PREVAILED ACROSS
THE SURROUNDING WATERS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...AFTER THE PREVIOUS AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS MOST PART OF PUERTO RICO...NO SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION WAS DETECTED OVER LAND AREAS OVERNIGHT.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO DIG
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TODAY...DEVELOPING INTO AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
OVER THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK...MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST WINDS TO CONTINUE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. AS THIS HAPPENS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER
THE LOCAL ISLANDS INDUCING THE DEVELOPMENT ACTIVE WEATHER EACH
AFTERNOON OVER LAND AREAS AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE SURROUNDING
COASTAL WATERS. SO FAR MODELS STILL SUGGEST THE BEST POTENTIAL
FOR BETTER ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH
LIGHT WINDS MAINTAINING THE CONVECTION OVER THE SAME AREA FOR A
LONG PERIOD OF TIME...INCREASING THE RAINFALL RATE.

&&

.AVIATION...TSRA REMAIN ACTIVE OVER WATERS NE-SE OF SAN JUAN AND OUT
UP TO 200 NM. TSRA WILL NOT COMPLETELY DIE DOWN TONIGHT AS OLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEARBY AND RETURNS TO PR TOMORROW. AFT
24/15Z...SHRA/TSRA WILL RE-DEVELOP OVER INTERIOR PR BRINGING
MVFR/IFR CONDS AND MTN OBSCURATIONS. BRIEF MVFR AND VCNTY TSRA
EXPECTED AT TAF SITES TJSJ...TJPS...TJMZ...TJBQ...BUT AGAIN PCPN LTD
ON COASTLINE. SOME SCT TSRA ARND TIST AND TISX. WINDS ALF UP TO
FL060 NW LESS THAN 10 KT AND W LESS THAN 15 KT UP TO FL130. BCMG BY
24/18Z SW AT FL010 5 KT INCRG TO 20 KT BY FL120. NOTE: WEAK JET
NOTED ARND FL185...SW/28 KT.

&&

.MARINE...MARINERS CAN EXPECT SEAS BELOW 5 FEET AND WINDS BELOW 15
KNOTS. HOWEVER...WATER SPOUTS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY IN AND
NEAR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 76 88 76 / 50 30 50 50
STT 88 78 88 78 / 50 50 50 50

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Oct 25, 2015 4:18:28 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Oct 25, 2015 4:18:28 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
441 AM AST SUN OCT 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND AN
ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
AND CENTRAL AMERICA WILL DIG FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. AN INDUCE SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAINS
ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL AT LEAST MONDAY. THESE FEATURES WILL
MAINTAIN A LIGHT AND VARIABLE LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW AND AN UNSTABLE
WEATHER ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT CUOPLE OF DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED
OVER CORDILLERA CENTRAL LAST AFTERNOON...PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS
OVER EASTERN INTERIOR AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. RAIN
GAGES OVER THOSE AREAS MEASURED BETWEEN 3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN
SPECIALLY OVER LA PLATA AND CARRAIZO BASINS. THIS IMPRESSIVE
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DIMINISHED RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET
LEAVING ONLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER
LAND AREAS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SOME WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNINGS PERSISTED ACROSS
THE SURROUNDING WATERS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THIS MORNING.

A MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW NORTH OF THE REGION AND AN ASSOCIATED
TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND THEN ACROSS
CENTRAL AMERICA...WILL CONTINUE TO DIG FURTHER SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY AND DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. AT
THE SAME TIME AN INDUCE SURFACE TROUGH REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION.
THESE FEATURES WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT AND VARIABLE LOW LEVEL WIND
FLOW AND VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE LOCAL
ISLANDS INDUCING THE DEVELOPMENT OF VERY ACTIVE WEATHER OVER LAND
AREAS EACH AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE SURROUNDING COASTAL
WATERS. SO FAR MODELS STILL SUGGEST THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR BETTER
ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS TODAY AND MONDAY...WITH LIGHT WINDS
MAINTAINING THE CONVECTION OVER THE SAME AREA FOR A LONG PERIOD OF
TIME...INCREASING THE RAINFALL RATE.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS. HOWEVER...VCSH STILL POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME ACROSS
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TERMINALS. THEN...BY 25/14Z SHRA/TSRA SHOULD
START TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE FLYING AREA. MAINLY ALONG THE
MOUNTAIN RANGES OF PR...AND OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS/ANEGADA
PASSAGE. IMPACTING MAINLY THE NORTH AND EASTERN PR TERMINALS AND THE
USVI/LEEWARD TERMINALS THRU THE END OF THE FCST PERIOD. THE LATEST
25/00Z TJSJ UPPER AIR SOUNDING INDICATED LIGHT SOUTH WINDS FROM SFC
UP TO 3 KFT AND WESTERLIES ABOVE...WITH 10-31 KNOTS BETWEEN FL100-
200.

&&

.MARINE...MARINERS CAN EXPECT SEAS BELOW 5 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 15
KNOTS. HOWEVER...WATER SPOUTS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY IN AND
NEAR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. ANOTHER SWELL EVENT WILL BE AFFECTING
THE ATLANTIC LOCAL WATERS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 74 87 78 / 60 50 50 40
STT 87 77 87 78 / 50 50 50 40

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Oct 26, 2015 4:02:40 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Oct 26, 2015 4:02:40 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
546 AM AST MON OCT 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE MONA
CHANNEL WILL FILL DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND DROP SOUTH
TUESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE RETURNING NORTH AND RE-UNITING WITH THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. A WEAK TROUGH WILL REMAIN
TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN LATER THIS WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...A LOW WILL GRADUALLY FILL NORTH OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC AND THE MONA CHANNEL DURING THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. MID LEVELS ARE RICH IN
MOISTURE BUT WILL DRY SOMEWHAT DURING THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE BAHAMA ISLANDS OVER THE WEEKEND.

AT LOWER LEVELS...INDUCED TROUGHINESS FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE WILL BRING UP RICH MOISTURE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW TODAY AND
TOMORROW. ON TUESDAY NIGHT FLOW WILL CHANGE TO THE EAST...BUT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE IN THEIR DAILY PATTERN BUT SHOULD DELIVER LESS RAINFALL
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER SHOT OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED
ON SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS TAPERED OFF OVERNIGHT OVER ALL BUT THE
NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA. THERE...THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUED THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. SHOWERS RECENTLY FORMED SOUTH
OF MONA ISLAND AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE
MORNING HOURS OVER PUERTO RICO. MOISTURE IS RICH AND PRECIPITABLE
WATER TODAY IS EXPECTED TO REACH ITS HIGHEST VALUE...OF THE SEVEN
DAYS THAT BEGAN YESTERDAY...WITH OVER 2 INCHES. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME HEAVY DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE RISK
OF FLOODING BECOMING HIGH. MUDSLIDES ARE ALSO EXPECTED WHERE THIS
HAPPENS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM AST TONIGHT AND
MAY BE EXTENDED LATER TODAY. UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS DID NOT APPEAR
TOO FAVORABLE EARLY TODAY BUT INCREASE CONSIDERABLY AFTER NOON
LOCAL TIME AND CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH MIDNIGHT. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT DIE OFF AS EARLY
THIS EVENING AS THEY DID ON SUNDAY AND THIS WILL INCREASE THE
POSSIBILITY OF LOCAL RIVER FLOODING AS WELL. STRONG DIVERGENCE
ALOFT CONTINUES THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY AND PRECIPITABLE WATER
REMAINS AROUND 2 INCHES THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE
THREAT OF FLOODING THROUGH TOMORROW. CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE
WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW FILLS AND BEGINS TO RETREAT TO
THE NORTH. AT THIS TIME THE GFS SHOWS THE AXIS OF THE RETREATING
UPPER LEVEL LOW CROSSING PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
ON THURSDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF THE
DRIEST PERIOD OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS. MOISTURE RETURNS LATE
FRIDAY...AND CONTINUES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BEFORE FALLING OFF
ABRUPTLY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FLYING AREA THRU THE
FORECAST PERIOD. PASSING SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS THE
TJPS...TIST...TISX...TNCM AND TKPK EARLY IN THE MORNING. AFT 26/17Z
SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALONG...SOUTH AND NORTH OF THE
CORDILLERA CENTRAL. AS A RESULT...BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDS IN AND AROUND
TJSJ...TISX...TIST...TJBQ...TJMZ AND THE LEEWARD TERMINALS THRU AT
LEAST 26/23Z. SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KT WITH SEA BREEZE
VARIATIONS AFT 26/13Z WILL BE GUSTY IN AND NEAR TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS REMAIN RELATIVELY TRANQUIL THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH
EXCEPTION OF PERIODS OF NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS CARRYING TORRENTIAL
RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. NORTH NORTHWEST SWELL OF UP TO 3 FEET WILL
BEGIN LATER THIS WEEK AND WIND WAVES WILL INCREASE AS LOCAL TRADE
WINDS RISE FROM GENTLE TO MODERATE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...SOME AREAS OF EASTERN PUERTO RICO HAD UP TO 5 INCHES
OF RAIN ACCORDING TO DOPPLER RADAR CONFIRMED BY RAIN GAGES. SOME
AREAS OF WESTERN PUERTO RICO HAD AS MUCH AS 10 INCHES THOUGH NO
RAIN GAGES WERE PRESENT TO CONFIRM THESE AMOUNTS. THIS LEAVES
SOILS VERY SATURATED AND PRONE TO SLIPPAGE WHEN MORE HEAVY COMES
THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY THE GUANAJIBO RIVER IS STILL JUST
OVER 20 FEET AND LEVELING OFF AFTER A VERY SLOW RISE. MORE
RAINFALL WILL DRIVE IT BACK INTO FLOOD STAGE THIS
AFTERNOON...MAKING FLOODING ALONG THIS RIVER MORE LIKELY. THIS MAY
ALSO BE TRUE OF THE MANATI. PERSONS WITH INTERESTS AROUND PUERTO
RICAN RIVERS SHOULD MAKE PREPARATIONS FOR HIGHER WATER LEVELS AND
REMAIN ALERT FOR RAPIDLY RISING WATER. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
SIMILAR TO SUNDAY...BUT OVERALL RAINFALL WILL LIKELY BE HIGHER
THAN YESTERDAY...AND EXTREMES COULD BE MORE DRAMATIC WITH BETTER
DYNAMICS ALOFT TODAY THAN WERE SEEN YESTERDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 76 87 79 / 80 60 50 30
STT 87 78 89 78 / 60 60 70 50

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Oct 27, 2015 4:07:32 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Oct 27, 2015 4:07:32 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
540 AM AST TUE OCT 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THE AXIS OF A TUTT LOW WILL CROSS INTO PUERTO RICO ON
WEDNESDAY AND WEAKEN DURING THE WEEK. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC OVER THE WEEKEND. A CUT-OFF LOW OUT OF THIS WILL
DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN NEXT WEEK...LEAVING
WEAK FLOW OVER THE LOCAL AREA.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC WILL
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WEAK LOW PRESSURE NORTHWEST OF
PUERTO RICO WILL BE ABSORBED INTO THE WESTERLY FLOW NORTH OF THE
AREA LATER THIS WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE IN THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN
LATE THIS WEEK WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND BECOME THE DOMINANT HIGH OF
THE AREA.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES WILL
MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN BY FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES IN THE SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN DRIVING GENTLE TO MODERATE
EAST SOUTHEAST TRADE WINDS. SOME WEAK TROUGHINESS FROM MID AND
UPPER LEVELS WILL INFLUENCE THE SURFACE FLOW FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. BANDS OF MOISTURE WILL TRAVEL WITH THE TRADE WIND FLOW
BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS ONCE MOISTURE BROUGHT UP BY THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW WE HAVE RECENTLY EXPERIENCED HAS MOVED ON.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS SKIRTED THE LOCAL ISLANDS
MUCH OF YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT LAST NIGHT BECAUSE HEAVY CLOUD
COVER LEFT THE OCEANS WARMER THAN LAND AREAS MUCH OF THE TIME. A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF PUERTO RICO WAS
BRINGING MOISTURE UP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND ISOLATED HEAVY
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WERE FORMING IN A BROADER AREA
OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN. LIGHT WINDS HAVE CONTINUED AND THESE
BEING MAINLY DRIVEN BY LAND BREEZES OVERNIGHT.

THE BAND OF MOISTURE MOVING UP THROUGH THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BEING EVEN HIGHER THAN
YESTERDAY. BECAUSE OF THE LOW PRESSURE AND SOME BUT LIMITED
CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST...HEAVY CLOUD MID AND HIGH LEVEL COVER
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE LOCAL AREA INHIBITING MOST STRONG
CONVECTION OVER LAND. BETTER INSTABILITY AND WARM OCEAN
WATERS...HOWEVER...WILL ALLOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FAVOR
THE SURROUNDING WATERS MUCH AS THEY DID YESTERDAY.

WE HAVE ELECTED TO CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PUERTO RICO
AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS MAINLY BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY OF
STRONG SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE INTERIOR OF
PUERTO RICO AND BANDING ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. BECAUSE
CONVECTION IS BEING LIMITED BY THE HEAVY MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS...HOWEVER...IT IS EXPECTED...AT THIS TIME...THAT
PRECIPITATION OVER LAND SHOULD BE LIGHT TO MODERATE OVER ALL
AREAS. SHOULD CLOUDS BREAK...THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT WOULD FORM
WOULD VIGOROUSLY FEED OFF OF THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND...MOVING
SLOWLY...WOULD BE ABLE TO PRODUCE MORE RAINFALL THAN SATURATED
SOILS COULD ABSORB AND RIVERS ALREADY RUNNING HIGHER THAN NORMAL
COULD CARRY AWAY.

ON WEDNESDAY...AS THE LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE AREA AND
DISSIPATES...SOME OF THIS CLOUD COVER WILL NOT BE GENERATED AND
NORMAL LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE ABLE TO FORM SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN PUERTO RICO AND OVER HIGHER TERRAIN THAT
ARE LIKELY TO GENERATE BETTER SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
THERE. ALSO AS WINDS STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT LATER THIS WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND...THE EARLY MORNING SHOWERS THAT DAMPEN THE EASTERN
SLOPES OF PUERTO RICO WILL BE ABLE TO RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION...VCSH WITH LAYERS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD. PASSING SHRA CAN BE
EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS THE TJPS...TIST... TISX...TNCM AND TKPK
EARLY IN THE MORNING. AFT 27/17Z...SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG... SOUTH AND NORTH OF THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL
BRINGING BRIEF MVFR CONDS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS IN AND AROUND
TJSJ...TISX...TIST ...TJBQ...TJMZ AND THE LEEWARD TERMINALS THRU
AT LEAST 27/23Z. EASTERLY WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KT WITH SEA BREEZE
VARIATIONS AFT 27/13Z AND GUSTY IN/NEAR SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS REMAIN RELATIVELY TRANQUIL AND GENERALLY BELOW 5
FEET UNTIL LATER THIS WEEK WHEN A 2 TO 4 FOOT SWELL FROM THE NORTH
ENTERS THE AREA. PRESENTLY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 5 TO 7 DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 78 87 79 / 70 60 60 40
STT 84 78 86 79 / 60 70 70 40

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Oct 28, 2015 4:11:35 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Oct 28, 2015 4:11:35 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
552 AM AST WED OCT 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND THE CUT OF LOW ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE LOCAL WEATHER CONDITIONS. AN INDUCE
SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE SOMEWHAT THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK AS EASTERLY TRADES RETURN TO THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUD LAYER DISSIPATED OR MOVED AWAY FROM THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. SHOWER ACTIVITY INCREASED EARLY IN THE MORNING
AS AN INDUCED TROUGH MOVED OVER THE REGION. AS A RESULT...SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE WINDWARD SECTIONS DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. IN ADDITION...EXPECT COASTAL MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THE
DIURNAL HEATING COMBINED WITH ABOVE NORMAL TPW AND DEEP LAYER
INSTABILITY WILL ENHANCE AFTERNOON CONVECTION ALONG AND TO THE
WEST OF THE MOUNTAIN RANGE OF PUERTO RICO AND DOWNSTREAM FROM
THE US VIRGIN ISLANDS. IN GENERAL...THE LIKELIHOOD FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...BUT IT WILL BE
LOCALIZED OVER THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO DURING
THE AFTERNOON WITH PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE WINDWARD SECTIONS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH 28/17Z. VCSH TJSJ...TNCM...TKPK...AND TIST. AFT 28/17Z
SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING OVER INTERIOR AND WRN PR WITH MVFR/IFR CONDS
AND MTN OBSCURATIONS. BRIEF MVFR AT TJMZ...TJBQ. LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING EAST SOUTHEAST UP TO
15 KTS BTWN 28/13-15Z EXCEPT FOR SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...THE LOCAL BUOY NETWORK INDICATED A SHORT PERIOD NORTH
SWELL OF 3-4 FEET AND WINDS OF 15 KNOTS OR LESS. ANOTHER MODERATE
NE SWELL IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOCAL AREA BY FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. MARINE CONDS WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH WITH SEAS 2-4 FEET WITH
OCCASIONAL SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AT LEAST UNTIL FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 77 89 77 / 40 40 40 20
STT 87 77 88 78 / 40 50 50 30

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Oct 29, 2015 4:23:08 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Oct 29, 2015 4:23:08 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
611 AM AST THU OCT 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION.
AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INTENSIFY OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN. ANOTHER TROUGH ALOFT
WILL AMPLIFY FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN OVER THE REGION BY SUNDAY
AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK. A SURFACE PERTURBATION WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO SUPPORT THE
RETURN OF THE EASTERLY TRADES ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE COMBINATION OF THE AVAILABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND A SURFACE TROUGH PRODUCED SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE LOCAL
WATERS...AND SOME OF THEM AFFECTED THE WINDWARD SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. HOWEVER...RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS HAVE BEEN LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH. DURING THE
MORNING HOURS...EXPECT PASSING SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS THE
COASTAL WINDWARD AREAS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS.

THE TROUGH ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF
AFTERNOON CONVECTION MAINLY TO THE WEST AND OVER THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN RANGE AND THE LUQUILLO RANGE...AS WELL AS DOWNSTREAM
FROM THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

GFS IS STILL SUGGESTING THE WEAKENING OF THE TROUGH ALOFT DURING
THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE AVAILABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED
WITH THE LOCAL EFFECTS WILL SUPPORT THE FORMATION OF AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN
SECTIONS...FOLLOWED BY OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING SHOWERS EACH
DAY DURING WEEKEND ON THE EASTERN COAST OF PR AND AROUND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY
OVER THE REGION INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION AND UPPER LEVEL
INSTABILITY. AS A RESULT...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY
MOIST AND UNSTABLE FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES...EXCEPT OVER PR
AFT 29/16Z...SHRA/TSRA DVLPG INTERIOR AND WRN PORTIONS TO BRING
MVFR/IFR CONDS AND MTN OBSCURATIONS IN HEAVY RAIN WITH PDS OF MVFR
AT TJMZ. CONDS IMPVG AFT 29/22Z. WINDS ALF E 5 TO 10 KT UP TO FL100
THEN VRB 10 KT OR LESS TO FL450.

&&

.MARINE...THE LOCAL BUOYS INDICATED SEAS AT 2 TO 4 FEET WITH
WINDS OF 15 KNOTS OR LESS. FOR TODAY...EXPECT SEAS OF 5 FEET OR
LESS AND WINDS BELOW 15 KNOTS. IN ADDITION...THE SOUTH BERMUDA
BUOY STATION... 41049...OBSERVED A MODERATE NNE SWELL AT 8
FT...11 SECONDS. THAT SWELL WILL REACH THE LOCAL AREA PRODUCING
WAVE HEIGHTS BETWEEN 4 AND 5 FEET WITH OCCASIONAL SEAS UP TO 6
FT BY FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. PLEASE...STAY TUNED FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SWELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 76 89 77 / 40 30 20 20
STT 87 78 88 79 / 40 50 20 20

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Oct 30, 2015 3:53:52 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Oct 30, 2015 3:53:52 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR

546 AM AST FRI OCT 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A WEAK LOW JUST SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO

WILL FADE AND A WEAK HIGH WILL RIDGE EAST OVER THE AREA TONIGHT

AHEAD OF A STRONGER LOW DIGGING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE MONA CHANNEL

SATURDAY NIGHT. BY SUNDAY EVENING THIS LOW WILL HAVE DUG INTO THE

DOMINICAN REPUBLIC SENDING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SOME DIVERGENCE OVER

THE AREA. THE LOW WILL THEN MOVE WEST SOUTHWEST AND AWAY FROM THE

AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT. A

WEAK TROUGH JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL BRING A MODEST JET

OVER THE AREA BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA

TO THE ATLANTIC WILL BECOME DIVIDED BY A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH

ACROSS THE EASTERN TIP OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC SATURDAY NIGHT

AND A POCKET OF COLD AIR WILL PASS TO THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY

MORNING. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE WEST AND BECOME A LOW PRESSURE OVER

THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN BY MONDAY NIGHT WHILE HIGH PRESSURE

CONTINUES NORTH OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RECEDE INTO THE

SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES LATER NEXT WEEK. MID LEVELS ARE DRIER

SATURDAY...AND WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE FOLLOWING SATURDAY. BEST

MOISTURE AT MID LEVELS WILL BE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOONS

AND THE FOLLOWING SUNDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE AREA AND

EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY. WEAK

WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING...SUNDAY AND MONDAY

NIGHT. MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST MOVES OVER THE AREA LATE IN THE

FIRST WEEK OF NOVEMBER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...EASTERLY TRADE WINDS CONTINUED TO CARRY MANY SMALL

SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. A FEW MOVED INTO EASTERN PUERTO

RICO AS FAR AS SAN LORENZO WITH VERY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. THE

WATERS AROUND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS HAD ALMOST NO SHOWERS.

PRECIPITABLE WATER IS DIMINISHING NOW...BUT WILL REBOUND BEGINNING

LATE TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SLIGHTLY

LESS VIGOROUS AND WIDESPREAD TODAY AND SATURDAY...THEY STILL

POSSESS THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LOCALIZED URBAN AND SMALL STREAM

FLOODING IN WESTERN PUERTO RICO WITH SOME RAPID RISES ON MAINSTEM

RIVERS.

AFTER TODAY EACH AFTERNOON DIURNAL PEAK OF PRECIPITABLE WATER

WILL BECOME SLIGHTLY LARGER THROUGH TUESDAY. THE LOW PRESSURE

DIVING INTO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WILL CARRY A COLD POCKET OF AIR

AT MID AND UPPER LEVEL THAT WILL PASS BY CLOSEST ON SUNDAY

MORNING. THIS WILL PULL THE LIFTED INDEX DOWN AS LOW AS MINUS 8

SUNDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS INSTABILITY AND THE

INCREASED MOISTURE SHOULD BOOST SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM

PRODUCTIVITY CONSIDERABLY SUNDAY AND WOULD EXPECT MUCH MORE

LIGHTNING WITH GREATER POTENTIAL FOR URBAN AND SMALL STREAM

FLOODING WITH RAPID RIVER RISES. INCREASING SURFACE WINDS WILL

HELP SOME BY MOVING CELLS THROUGH A LITTLE MORE QUICKLY.

INSTABILITY DIMINISHES THROUGH FRIDAY BUT MOISTURE CONTINUES

THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY...SO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL

CONTINUE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...JUST NOT AS

STRONGLY. WOULD EXPECT THE BEST RAIN CHANCES AND AMOUNTS DURING

THIS PERIOD TO BE OVER WESTERN PUERTO RICO OVER BOTH THE NORTH AND

SOUTH HALVES SUNDAY...TAPERING OFF MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF

THE WEEK. MOISTURE COMING UP FROM THE SOUTHEAST THE SUNDAY AFTER

NEXT WILL ALSO INCREASE SHOWER ACTIVITY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES...EXCEPT OVER

WEST PR BTWN 20/17Z-21Z. SHRA/TSRA DVLPG INTERIOR AND WRN PORTIONS

WILL LIKELY BRING TEMPO MVFR/IFR CONDS WITH MTN OBSCURATIONS IN

AND AROUND TJMZ AND POSSIBLY TJBQ. EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KT

WILL PREVAIL BLW FL250.

&&

.MARINE...A NORTHERLY SWELL WILL CAUSE SEAS IN THE ATLANTIC AND

PASSAGES TO INCREASE TO 4 TO 6 FEET. OTHERWISE CONDITIONS WILL BE

BORDERLINE TRANQUIL. WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK

AND THE HIGHEST SEAS WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY IN BOTH THE

ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN WATERS. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL

CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE NEXT TEN DAYS. RIP CURRENT

RISK WAS HIGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC COASTS AND SHOULD

CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

SJU 89 77 90 78 / 20 30 30 60

STT 88 79 89 79 / 20 30 20 50

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Oct 31, 2015 4:04:33 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Oct 31, 2015 4:04:33 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR

558 AM AST SAT OCT 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/TUTT OVER WESTERN

ATLANTIC WILL DIG SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS UPPER

TROUGH IS FORECAST TO FORM A CUT-OFF LOW OVER HISPANOLA BY SUNDAY

MORNING...RESULTING IN VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS OVER PR AND USVI

SUNDAY. MID-UPPER LOW WILL MOVE WESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL AND

WESTERN CARIBBEAN ON MONDAY...LEADING TO MORE STABLE CONDS ACROSS

THE LOCAL ISLANDS. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE

LOCAL AREA ON TUESDAY...BRINGING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS

TO THE REGION. DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...TYPICAL WEATHER CONDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...WITH

BRIEF MORNING SHOWERS OVER THE EAST PORTIONS OF THE ISLANDS...

FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE INTERIOR AND

WEST PR. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL ARE FORECAST

FOR USVI TODAY.

WET AND UNSTABLE PATTERN IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS AN EASTERLY WAVE

LOCATED NEAR 60 WEST THIS MORNING WILL INTERACT WITH AFOREMENTIONED

UPPER TROUGH/TUTT TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PR

AND USVI. CLOUD COVER COULD LIMIT SOMEWHAT THE DIURNAL

DISTRIBUTION OF THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...PERIODS OF HEAVY

RAINS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE

STRONGEST STORMS. LAND AND SEA BREEZES WILL DOMINATE AGAIN THE

LOCAL WEATHER ON MONDAY.

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED NEAR 40 WEST THIS MORNING WILL BRING

ANOTHER BOOST IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY. THEN...A DRYING

TREND IS EXPECTED THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL

FLYING AREA OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH ONLY VCSH

ACROSS TISX...TIST AND TJSJ. AFTER 31/17Z SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP

OVER INTERIOR AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO BRINGING TEMPO

MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS IN AND AROUND

TJMZ AND POSSIBLE TJBQ. EAST WINDS OF 15 KT BELOW FL250.

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL ATLANTIC

WATERS. SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 3-6 FEET ACROSS MOST OF THE WATERS.

BREAKING WAVES OF 5-7 FEET WILL CONTINUE TO INDUCE STRONG RIP

CURRENTS ALONG THE EXPOSED BEACHES OF NORTHERN PR THROUGH AT LEAST

TONIGHT. PLEASE REFER TO THE RIP CURRENT RISK STATEMENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

SJU 90 78 88 77 / 30 60 60 30

STT 89 79 88 78 / 40 50 50 60

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Nov 1, 2015 4:14:15 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Nov 1, 2015 4:14:15 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
529 AM AST SUN NOV 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
CONTINUE DIGGING SOUTH THROUGH MONDAY...RESULTING IN UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS OVER PR AND USVI TODAY. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON TUESDAY...BRINGING
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. DRIER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SO FAR...NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS REMAINED OVER THE CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS PRODUCING
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL...EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS.
FEW SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS WERE ISSUED DUE TO THESE STORMS.
MEANWHILE OVER LAND...SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MOVED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA
AND VIEQUES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATION RANGED FROM ONE HALF TO ONE
INCH.

LOCAL AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW...CURRENTLY OVER THE MONA PASSAGE. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL EFFECT TO PRODUCE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL OF
PUERTO RICO AND ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. THEREFORE...AN ACTIVE
AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED AS THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS NEAR THE
LOCAL REGION.

FOR TUESDAY...A TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE LOCAL
REGION. AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
THEN EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS
WAVE..RELATIVELY NORMAL WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA/TSRA LIKELY ACROSS THE FLYING AREA TODAY AS SFC
TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL LOW DOMINATE THE LOCAL WX CONDS. BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS IN SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE AT ALL
TAF SITES...ESPECIALLY TJMZ AND TJBQ BTWN 01/17Z-21Z. MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS LIKELY OVER THE INTERIOR AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF PR.
EAST WINDS AROUND 10-20 KT EXPECTED BLO FL200.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 6 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION
ACROSS MOST COASTAL WATERS. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY. REFER TO MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT OR SPECIAL MARINE
WARNINGS FOR LATEST CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 78 90 78 / 60 30 30 70
STT 88 78 90 79 / 60 50 50 70

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Nov 2, 2015 3:56:10 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Nov 2, 2015 3:56:10 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
528 AM AST MON NOV 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE MONA PASSAGE WILL MOVE AWAY
FROM THE LOCAL REGION TODAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE REGION BY MID WEEK. AT THE SURFACE...A TROPICAL WAVE IS
EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE LOCAL REGION EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE NOTED MAINLY OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS EAST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AND EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS MOVED ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO AND ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS. THESE PASSING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL
AREA THIS MORNING. FOR THIS AFTERNOON...THE PROXIMITY OF AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW...WILL COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL EFFECTS
TO PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

FOR TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...A TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT
THE LOCAL REGION...MAINTAINING GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS WAVE...RELATIVELY DRIER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO ENCOMPASS THE REGION...AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT CAN BE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
WESTERN INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES WITH PASSING
SHOWERS THE REST OF THE MORNING AT IST/ISX/JSJ. SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED AFT 02/17Z OVER AND WEST OF THE
CORDILLERA...RESULTING IN PERIODS OF MVFR CONDS AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS THROUGH 02/22Z AT JMZ/JBQ. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
OVERNIGHT...BECOMING EASTERLY AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH SEA BREEZE
VARIATION AFT 02/13Z.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 76 90 78 / 20 70 70 30
STT 89 78 88 78 / 50 70 70 30

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Nov 3, 2015 3:52:38 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Nov 3, 2015 3:52:38 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
533 AM AST TUE NOV 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE AFTER THE PASSAGE
OF THE WAVE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL
WAVE...WERE INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY EARLY THIS
MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE NOTED MAINLY OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE REST OF THE ISLAND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...THE
TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA.

AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS WAVE...A DRIER AIR MASS WILL ENCOMPASS
THE LOCAL REGION...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXPECTED TO
DECREASE TO AS LOW AS 1.3 INCHES BY LATE TONIGHT. MOISTURE WILL
RECOVER SOMEWHAT BY THE END OF THE WEEK...AS EASTERLY TRADE WINDS
BRING WITH IT PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE LOCAL
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...PERIODS OF MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
USVI AND LEEWARD ISLANDS THRU 03/12Z IN SHRA/TSRA. SHRA/TSRA WILL
SPREAD OVER PR LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN
PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS TJBQ AND TJMZ. VCTS/VCSH EXPECTED AT TJPS AND TJSJ. EASTERLY
WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS BELOW FL250.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 6 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS AND ANEGADA PASSAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 77 87 77 / 70 30 30 30
STT 88 79 88 78 / 70 30 30 30

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Nov 5, 2015 4:06:06 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Nov 5, 2015 4:06:06 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
510 AM AST THU NOV 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY SHIFT NORTHWESTWARD WHILE WEAKENING. AS THIS FEATURE
MOVES NORTHWEST ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES AND INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...ASSOCIATED INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH WILL PROMOTE
MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY SATURDAY THROUGH
AT LEAST TUESDAY. THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH AND BUILDING
SURFACE HIGH NORTH OF THE AREA WILL RESULT IN MODERATE TO LOCALLY
STRONG EASTERLY WINDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS DURING OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE USVI AND THE EASTERN HALF OF
PUERTO RICO.

MARGINAL INSTABILITY...BRISK EASTERLIES AND ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN FREQUENT FAST MOVING SHOWERS ACROSS
THE NORTH AND EAST COASTAL AREAS...FOLLOWED BY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER AND WEST PUERTO RICO IN THE
AFTERNOON. THIS PATTERN SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY.

A WETTER/ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN COULD BE EXPECTED SATURDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY...AS AN INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. THIS FEATURE WITH ITS ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL RESULT
IN PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WITH SATURDAY AS THE MOST ACTIVE DAY. DUE TO VARIATIONS BETWEEN
MODEL RUNS...EXPECT FURTHER REFINEMENTS IN THE FORECAST. STAY
TUNED.

MOISTURE LEVELS RETURN TO NEARLY NORMAL VALUES ON WEDNESDAY UNDER
RIDGE ALOFT AND EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS. EXPECT BEST SHOWERS IN WEST
AND NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO LATE NEXT WEEK WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL THE TAF SITES
DURING THE FCST PERIOD. PASSING SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS
TJSJ...TKPK... TNCM...TIST AND TISX IN THE MORNING MAY CAUSE VERY
BRIEF MVFR CONDS. AFT 05/15Z...MOUNTAIN OBSC LIKELY ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND WESTERN PR. PERIODS OF MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE ACROSS
TJMZ/TJBQ/TJSJ BTWN 05/17Z-23Z IN SHRA/TSRA...WITH TEMPO TSRA
LIKELY AT TJMZ. E-ENE WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH SEA BREEZE
VARIATIONS AFTER 05/13Z.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A SHORT-PERIOD NORTHERLY SWELLS WILL
COMBINE WITH WIND WAVES FROM THE EAST TO INCREASE THE SEAS ACROSS
THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND ANEGADA PASSAGE DURING THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 5-7 FT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 78 88 79 / 50 50 40 60
STT 87 76 87 77 / 50 50 50 60

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Nov 6, 2015 4:33:17 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Nov 6, 2015 4:33:17 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
614 AM AST FRI NOV 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...TROFINESS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WITH A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK. TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND
INTO SATURDAY. TROFINESS AND APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE WILL
RESULT IN A WET/ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...
WITH SATURDAY AS THE MOST ACTIVE DAY. THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE
AND BUILDING SURFACE HIGH NORTH OF THE AREA WILL PROMOTE FRESH
TO LOCALLY STRONG EASTERLY WINDS THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

.&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WERE OBSERVED
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS DURING OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH SOME
SHOWERS AFFECTING THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PORTIONS OF EASTERN
PUERTO RICO. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY
WERE MINIMAL.

WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...EXPECT FAST MOVING SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST COASTAL AREAS OF PUERTO RICO AS WELL
AS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS IN THE MORNING...FOLLOWED BY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER AND WEST PUERTO RICO IN THE
AFTERNOON.

A WET PATTERN IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...
WITH SATURDAY AS THE BEST DAY FOR SHOWER AND THUNDER ACTIVITY AS
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTS
WITH TROUGH ALOFT. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SHARP INCREASE IN
PRECIPITABLE WATER...WITH VALUES NEAR 2.45 INCHES ON SATURDAY
WHICH IS +2STD. AS MATTER OF FACT....PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL VALUES THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY...WITH
A SECOND PEAK NEAR 2.25 INCHES ON TUESDAY.

THEREFORE...WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE WITH NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS THE USVI AND EASTERN
PUERTO RICO LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...SPREADING
ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO IN THE AFTERNOON. PERIOD OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO PREVAIL ACROSS THE US VIRGIN ISLANDS
AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER.

PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE EXPECTED MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. MOISTURE LEVELS RETURN TO NEARLY NORMAL VALUES WEDNESDAY...
UNDER RIDGE ALOFT AND EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS. EXPECT BEST SHOWERS
EACH AFTERNOON ACROSS WEST AND NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO WEDNESDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE WILL BRING CLOUDS AND
SHRA/TSRA TO THE AREAS SURROUNDING TNCM/TKPK TODAY...AS IT SLOWLY
MOVES TO THE EAST...MAKING IT TO TIST/TISX THIS EVENING THEN ACROSS
PR LATE TONIGHT. VCSH EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
WITH CLOUDS CAUSING MTN OBSCURATIONS AT AROUND NOON WITH SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPING ACROSS PR. VCTS LIKELY AND TEMPO TSRA POSSIBLE AT TJPS
AND TJMZ AFTER 06/17Z. WINDS FROM THE ENE WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS
AT AROUND 15KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...A SHORT PERIOD NORTHERLY SWELL WILL COMBINE WITH WIND SEAS
FROM THE EAST TO RESULT IN HAZARDOUS SEAS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS
AND PASSAGES TONIGHT AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. SEAS 5 TO 7
FEET WITH OCCASIONAL SEAS UP TO 9 FEET AND EASTERLY AROUND 20
KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THERE IS AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING RAINS
OVERNIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS DUE TO
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGH ALOFT...AN APPROACHING
TROPICAL WAVE AND SATURATED SOILS. THEREFORE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
COULD BE REQUIRED LATER THIS MORNING. WETTEST CONDITIONS WITH THE
HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND
THE US VIRGIN ISLANDS SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 78 86 79 / 40 50 70 50
STT 89 77 85 79 / 50 60 70 60

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Puerto Rico Weather

Post by cycloneye on Oct 22, 2015 4:11:14 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Oct 23, 2015 4:55:23 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Oct 24, 2015 3:58:23 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Oct 25, 2015 4:18:28 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Oct 26, 2015 4:02:40 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Oct 27, 2015 4:07:32 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Oct 28, 2015 4:11:35 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Oct 29, 2015 4:23:08 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Oct 30, 2015 3:53:52 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Oct 31, 2015 4:04:33 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Nov 1, 2015 4:14:15 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Nov 2, 2015 3:56:10 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Nov 3, 2015 3:52:38 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Nov 5, 2015 4:06:06 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Nov 6, 2015 4:33:17 GMT -6

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