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cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Nov 7, 2015 4:09:32 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Nov 7, 2015 4:09:32 GMT -6

.SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...BRINGING
QUICK MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE LOCAL ISLANDS. UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE LOCAL AREA WILL PREVAIL UNTIL MONDAY WHEN AN UPPER
RIDGE ESTABLISHES TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS.
MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS EXPECTED TODAY AND SUNDAY...SLIGHTLY
DECREASING LATE SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE HAVE BEGUN
AFFECTING THE LOCAL ISLANDS WITH SOME RADAR ESTIMATES INDICATING
UP TO ABOUT THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAIN IN ISOLATED
AREAS...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN PR. THESE SHOWERS ARE MOVING RATHER
QUICKLY AND FROM THE EAST...AT ROUGHLY 20 KNOTS. NO LIGHTNING HAS
BEEN DETECTED IN THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...BUT THAT IS EXPECTED TO
CHANGE LATER TODAY.

LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE DISAGREEING A LITTLE WHEN IT
COMES TO THE LOCATION OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL TODAY. THE WRF
MODEL LIKES HEAVY RAINFALL JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE IN OUR LOCAL
AREA...WITH DECENT RAINFALL ACROSS THE USVI IN THE MORNING HOURS
AND THEN A LOCAL MAXIMUM RAINFALL ACROSS THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF
PR IN THE AFTERNOON...THE WRF MODEL HAS MOST OF THE RAINFALL OUT
OF LAND AREAS BY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER THE NMM MODEL HAS LESS
RAINFALL OVER THE LOCAL AREA. THE NMM MODEL HAS PLENTY OF RAIN
ACROSS THE USVI VERY EARLY IN THE MORNING BUT MOST OF IT GONE BY
MID-MORNING WHILE SOME RAIN STARTS TO DEVELOP ACROSS PR...HOWEVER
EASTERN PR SHOULD RECEIVE THE BEST ACCUMULATIONS WITH MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN IN THE LATE MORNING HOURS...THEN DECREASING ACTIVITY IN
THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE GETTING ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY SHOWERS IN THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER...THE NMM DOES
NOT PUT NEARLY AS MUCH RAIN FOR THE INTERIOR OF PR COMPARED TO THE
WRF MODEL. SO THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCY BETWEEN THE MODELS. HAVING
SAID THAT...BOTH MODELS HAS IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY. BASED
ON THE AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE AND OBSERVATIONS...OUR FORECAST IS
LEANING MORE WITH THE NMM MODEL WHICH HAS THE HIGHER AMOUNTS OF
RAIN ACROSS THE EAST AND NORTH SECTIONS OF PR TODAY...WITH GOOD
AMOUNTS OF RAIN FOR THE USVI AS WELL. MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS.

EVEN THOUGH WX CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE ON
SUNDAY...THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF MOISTURE WHICH WILL LINGER UNTIL
TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF PR AND AROUND
THE USVI. THE PROBLEM IS THAT THERE WILL BE LOTS OF CLOUDINESS
THAT SHOULD LIMIT OR INHIBIT THE CONVECTION ACROSS THE INTERIOR
AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR. SO AT THIS TIME WE EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF PR AND THE
USVI...WITH SOME OF THOSE SHOWERS MOVING A BIT FURTHER INLAND AS
THE STRONG WINDS PUSH THEM FORWARD...HOWEVER THE RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE AS WE GO FURTHER WEST OVER
PR.

WX CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER TUESDAY AS
DRIER AIR MOVES IN WITH SEVERAL PATCHES OF MOISTURE. ALSO THE
UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FROM MONDAY THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK. SO WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR OVER THE AREA AND RIDGE
ALOFT WE CAN EXPECT MOSTLY LOCALLY INDUCED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...PERIODS OF MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDS POSSIBLE AT ALL
TAF SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...AS SHRA/TSRA ASSOCIATED
WITH PASSING TROPICAL WAVE PERSISTS ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.
SHRA/TSRA WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES...USVI AND
E PR IN THE MORNING HOURS...SPREADING ACROSS W PR LATER TODAY.
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS EXPECTED. EASTERLY WINDS 15-20KT WITH
HIGHER GUST ACCOMPANYING SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE LOCAL
WATERS AS THE COMBINATION OF A SHORT PERIOD NORTHEASTERLY SWELL
COMBINES WITH THE WIND WAVES FROM THE EAST WILL CAUSE HAZARDOUS
SEAS OF UP TO 7 FEET AND CHOPPY ACROSS ALL OF THE LOCAL WATERS
EXCEPT THE NEARSHORE CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PR AND THE NEARSHORE
WATERS TO THE WEST AND NW PR. THESE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN
EFFECT UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...THEN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONTINUES FOR THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE ANEGADA PASSAGE
UNTIL MONDAY MORNING.

&&

HYDROLOGY...MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS STILL EXPECTED TODAY DURING
THE DAY. URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IS TO BE EXPECTED. LARGER
RIVERS MAY RISE RAPIDLY. THE SOILS ARE FAIRLY SATURATED SO IT
SHOULD NOT TAKE TOO MUCH RAIN TO CAUSE RUNOFF.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 77 90 79 / 90 50 60 20
STT 85 78 87 79 / 80 60 60 50

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Nov 8, 2015 4:30:47 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Nov 8, 2015 4:30:47 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
553 AM AST SUN NOV 8 2015

.SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA BUT
LINGERING MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH LATE MONDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL MOVE TO THE
EAST EARLY THIS WEEK...THEN ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...KEEPING THE LOCAL AREA UNDER AN
EASTERLY TO EAST SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW. UPPER RIDGE WILL PREVAIL
TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND A WEAK UPPER LOW TO THE
SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SO FAR DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SCATTERED TO
LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS HAVE AFFECTED THE LOCAL WATERS AS WELL AS
THE USVI AND EASTERN PR. THE SHOWERS ARE MOVING QUICKLY SO RADAR
ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT UP TO AN INCH OF RAIN HAS FALLEN IN
ISOLATED AREAS ACROSS THE EASTERN INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PR. EVEN
THOUGH THE TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING AWAY...THE MOISTURE WILL LINGER
THROUGH AT LEAST LATE MONDAY. UPPER TROUGH TO THE SOUTH AND WEST
OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS WILL KEEP SOME INSTABILITY OVER THE LOCAL
AREA TODAY...WHICH MAY HELP IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REST OF TODAY. HAVING SAID THAT...THE LATEST
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE THAT THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION
SHOULD BE LIMITED TO ONLY ISOLATED AREAS...WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
AND VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES. EASTERN PR AND AROUND THE USVI ARE THE
AREAS WITH THE MORE PERSISTENT RAIN...BUT THE NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF PR MAY HAVE THE HIGHER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS.

SIMILAR STORY FOR MONDAY...EXCEPT THAT THE UPPER RIDGE MAY HAVE A
STRONGER IMPACT OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS ON MONDAY. HOWEVER
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH MAY HAVE A WEAK LOW JUST TO THE
SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS...CAUSING INSTABILITY OVER THE
CARIBBEAN WATERS. SO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE OBSERVED
OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS ON MONDAY. FROM TUESDAY AND FOR THE REST
OF THE WEEK...SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR STARTS TO MOVE IN WITH PATCHES OF
MOISTURE WHICH WILL CAUSE PASSING SHOWERS IN THE OVERNIGHT AND
MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE WATERS...USVI...AND EASTERN PR...THEN
AFTERNOON CONVECTION POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN
SECTIONS OF PR. IF THE UPPER RIDGE IS STRONG...THE AFTERNOON
CONVECTION SHOULD BE MAINLY LOCALLY INDUCED.

&&

.AVIATION...PERIODS OF MVFR CONDS STILL POSSIBLE AT PR AND USVI
TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...AS SHRA/TSRA CONTINUE TO
MOVE INTO THE FLYING AREA. SHRA/TSRA MAY ALSO DEVELOP OVER AND NORTH
OF THE CORDILLERA AFT 08/16Z. WX CONDS SLOWLY IMPROVING AT THE
LEEWARD TERMINALS WITH VCSH/VCTS. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS EXPECTED.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS 15-20KT WITH HIGHER GUST ACCOMPANYING SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 7 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TODAY. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE IN EFFECT FOR MOST COASTAL
WATERS. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 79 89 80 / 50 40 40 30
STT 87 79 88 79 / 50 50 50 40

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Nov 9, 2015 4:19:57 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Nov 9, 2015 4:19:57 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
541 AM AST MON NOV 9 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK LOW SOUTH OF PUNTA CANA IN A TROUGH THAT
EXTENDS FROM SOUTHEAST CUBA TO THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE
TO OVER PUERTO RICO BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND TO THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN BY THE WEEKEND AND THEN TO THE WESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WILL MOVE TO
JUST NORTH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMA ISLANDS BY THURSDAY NIGHT
AND THEN INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BY SUNDAY OF NEXT WEEK. A WEAK
TROUGH WILL CROSS THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BY WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH LOW
PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THE HIGH CLOSELY A MODEST RIDGE REMAINS
ACROSS THE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK THAT WILL
MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS. LOW PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD IN THE SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN. A WEAK
TROUGH WILL MOVE WEST ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND OUT OF THE AREA TODAY
AND TONIGHT WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTION TO OUR SOUTH. TROPICAL
DEPRESSION NUMBER 12 WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA WITH
LITTLE EFFECT HERE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WERE NOTED OVER THE LOCAL WATERS
EARLY IN THE NIGHT...HOWEVER THE BEST ACTIVITY REMAINED SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA AND MOVED JUST SLIGHTLY NORTH OF WEST. ONLY A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS PASSED OVER EASTERN PUERTO RICO.

THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA TONIGHT BUT THERE
DOES APPEAR TO BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IN THE AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY TO GENERATE AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE USUAL
DIURNAL PATTERN. THEREFORE SHOWERS ARE LIKELY EACH AFTERNOON
UNTIL THEN IN THE WESTERN INTERIOR OF PUERTO RICO AND EACH MORNING
ALONG THE WINDWARD SLOPES OF EASTERN PUERTO RICO. ANY FLOODING
THAT COULD OCCUR WOULD BE VERY LIMITED AND LOCALIZED THOUGH NONE
IS EXPECTED...NEVERTHELESS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF RAIN ARE
EXPECTED IN THE WEST AND THE INTERIOR OF PUERTO RICO TODAY.

THE BEST DRYING TREND WILL BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER DROPPING TO JUST BELOW 1.1 INCHES ON THURSDAY MORNING.THEN
PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL RECOVER...BUT REMAIN BELOW THE 50
PERCENTILE OF 1.75 INCHES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FLOW IN THE LOWEST
300 MB IS EAST SOUTHEAST AROUND 15 KNOTS UNTIL
THURSDAY...INTERRUPTED ONLY BY A WEAK TROUGH PASSAGE ON THURSDAY
WHICH HAS LITTLE MOISTURE AT ITS APEX. HENCE THE FORECAST FOR
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE CONSIDERABLY DRIER THAN THAT OF
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVEN WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER DECLINING
TODAY FROM ITS PEAK YESTERDAY.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO DIMINISH TOMORROW AND TEMPERATURES
WILL VARY LITTLE DURING THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE TERMINALS
THRU THE FCST PERIOD. AS...SHRA/TSRA ARE FORECAST IN AND AROUND TJMZ
AND TJBQ BTW 09/17Z-21Z...RESULTING IN PSBL TEMPO MVFR CONDS AND
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS OVER WESTERN PR. ALSO...MTN TOP OBSCD DUE
SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR...CREATING VCTS AT
TJSJ. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE FM THE E-ESE AT 15-25 KT WITH SEA
BREEZE VARIATIONS AFTER 14Z.

&&

.MARINE...ATLANTIC SEAS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE
DAY...DUE TO WINDS OVER THE AREA AND A 2 TO 3 FOOT SWELL FROM THE
NORTH NORTHEAST WITH A PERIOD AROUND 10 SECONDS. SEAS WILL THEN
DIMINISH THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE
OUTER ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE ANEGADA PASSAGE IS EXPECTED TO END
EARLY THIS EVENING.

CARIBBEAN SEAS WILL INCREASE UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING AND MAY REACH 6
FEET IN PLACES...AND THEN DIMINISH UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING. SWELLS
WILL BE MINUSCULE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 78 89 79 / 40 50 50 60
STT 86 77 88 78 / 40 30 40 50

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Nov 10, 2015 3:41:41 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Nov 10, 2015 3:41:41 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
510 AM AST TUE NOV 10 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE. A SURGE OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXIST THE LOCAL AREA EARLY THIS MORNING.
A DRIER AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE DOPPLER RADAR DETECTED FREQUENT PASSING SHOWERS
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO AND THE US VIRGIN ISLANDS.
SINCE MIDNIGHT...THE RAINFALL ACCUMULATION OBSERVED AT SOME OF
THE LOCAL RAINGAGES WERE BETWEEN 0.33 INCHES...AT THE LUIS MUNOZ
MARIN AIRPORT...AND AROUND 1.33 INCHES AT THE SAN LORENZO
STATION. ON THE OTHER HAND...TRACES WERE REPORTED AT THE US
VIRGIN ISLANDS RAINGAGES. AS THIS SURGE OF MOISTURE EXIT THE
AREA...A DRIER AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE LOCAL ISLANDS
THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT...SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
DECREASE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. HOWEVER...THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE
WILL COMBINE WITH THE LOCAL EFFECTS TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A DRYING AND STABLE TREND
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH DECREASING PRECIPITABLE
WATER...BELOW 2 INCHES...AND MODERATE MID/LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...AROUND 5C/KM. IN ADDITION...THE TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO BECOME LIGHT/MODERATE AFTER MID-WEEK AS THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE LIFTS FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE ATLANTIC...AND THE LOCAL
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. HOWEVER...THE TYPICAL PASSING
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING SHOWERS...FOLLOWED BY DIURNALLY
INDUCED AFTERNOON CONVECTION MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERIOR
AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE TERMINALS
THRU THE FCST PERIOD. HOWEVER...SHRA/TSRA ARE FORECAST IN AND AROUND
TJMZ AND TJBQ BTW 10/17Z-21Z...RESULTING IN PSBL TEMPO MVFR CONDS
AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS OVER WESTERN PR. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE
FM THE E-ESE AT 15-25 KT.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS
MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS DUE TO CHOPPY SEAS BETWEEN 4 AND 6 FEET
AND WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS OCCASIONALLY UP TO 20 KNOTS. THE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT AND MODERATE AFTER WEDNESDAY. A
NORTHERLY SWELL IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOCAL WATERS BY THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 77 90 77 / 30 50 20 50
STT 88 79 88 77 / 20 50 20 50

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Nov 11, 2015 4:11:43 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Nov 11, 2015 4:11:43 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
452 AM AST WED NOV 11 2015

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK TUTT CONTINUES OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN INTO
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA WHILE MID LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE
ATLANTIC/EASTERN CARIBBEAN SIDE. AT LOWER LEVELS...EASTERLY WAVE
WILL CONTINUE MOVING WEST WELL SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS TODAY. TRADE
WIND PATTERN WILL ESTABLISH THRU THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLODY SKIES PREVAILED OVERNIGHT ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS...WITH PASSING TRADE WIND SHOWERS OBSERVED
MAINLY OVER THE WATERS WITH SOME AFFECTING ISOLATED AREAS OF
EASTERN PR AND THE USVI. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE NOT SIGNIFICANT.
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FILTERED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA DUE TO THE INTERACTION OF
THE TUTT AND EASTERLY WAVE. FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING HOURS
EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS EMBEDDED ON THE EASTERLIES TO AFFECT THE USVI
AND THE EASTERN COASTAL SECTIONS OF PR...FOLLOWED BY LIMITED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION OVER SECTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN PR AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS
STREAMING OF EL YUNQUE RAIN FOREST AND AFFECTING THE SAN JUAN
METRO AREA.

ON THURSDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST A DRIER AIR MASS FILTERING
OVER THE ISLANDS WITH A NORTHEAST WIND FLOW...LIMITING AFTERNOON
CONVECTION...IF ANY...OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF PR. THEN
TRADE WIND SHOWER PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE DURING THE NIGHT
TIME/EARLY MORNING PERIOD AND AFTERNOON CONVECTION INDUCED BY
DAYTIME HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS OVER THE WESTERN SIDE OF
THE ISLAND THRU AT LEAST THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES WITH VCSH POSSIBLE
AT JSJ/IST/ISX AND LEEWARD TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING. AFT 11/16Z
SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING OVER W AND NW PR...AND MAY CAUSE MVFR CONDS AND
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS IN AND AROUND JBQ/JMZ THROUGH 11/22Z. LOW
LEVEL WINDS E-ESE AT 15-20 KT WITH SOME SEE BREEZE VARIATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS
THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND CARIBBEAN PASSAGES AS SEAS UP TO 6 FEET
AND EAST WINDS BETWEEN 15-20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. THERE IS A
MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN COAST
OF PR AND AT CRAMER PARK IN ST. CROIX. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AND STAY BETWEEN 2-5 FEET THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 76 89 76 / 20 50 10 20
STT 87 76 87 77 / 20 50 10 30

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Nov 12, 2015 4:01:50 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Nov 12, 2015 4:01:50 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
448 AM AST THU NOV 12 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS FEATURE WILL
WEAKEN MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED INDUCED SURFACE LOW DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
ATLANTIC AND NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. A MODERATE EASTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY...BECOMING SOUTHERLY AND
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS
THE LOCAL WATERS...WITH SOME OF AFFECTING THE NORTH AND EAST
COASTAL ARES OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY WERE MINIMAL. WINDS WERE EASTERLY AT
10 MPH OR LESS WITH COASTAL TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

A MID LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN...NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER AND A
MODERATE EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.
THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN EARLY MORNING PASSING
SHOWERS ACROSS THE EAST AND NORTH COASTAL AREAS...FOLLOWED BY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WEST PUERTO RICO...
WITH TODAY AS THE DRIEST DAY OF THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A WET/ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN BY MIDWEEK
NEXT WEEK...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED INDUCED SURFACE LOW DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
ATLANTIC AND NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THIS PATTERN WILL PROMOTE...
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS...DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTION
AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK. STAY TUNED TO SEE HOW THIS PATTERN EVOLVES.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR ACROSS ALL TERMINALS NEXT 24 HOURS. SHRA
TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN INTERIOR OF PR BETWEEN 12/17Z-
22Z...IMPACTING MAINLY THE VCNTY OF JMZ/JPS. BRIEF -TSRA COULD
DEVELOP FROM THESE SHOWERS BUT CONFIDENCE LOW ATTM. LOW LEVEL
WINDS FM THE ENE-E AT 5- 15 KT...WINDS SHIFTING TO E-ESE AFT
13/00Z.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS OF 3-5 FEET ACROSS LOCAL WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. MARINE CONDS WILL REMAIN SIMILAR THROUGH
SATURDAY. THEN...NNE SWELL OF 4-6 FT IS FORECAST TO REACH THE
LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND CARIBBEAN PASSAGES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 77 87 76 / 10 20 20 40
STT 86 79 86 78 / 10 40 40 40

&&

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Nov 13, 2015 4:00:41 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Nov 13, 2015 4:00:41 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR

450 AM AST FRI NOV 13 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE FORECAST

AREA TODAY. THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY ERODE OVER THE WEEKEND AND

INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PROPAGATE EASTWARD

ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC. THIS FEATURE WILL SUPPORT THE

AMPLIFICATIONOF A POLAR TROUGH FORECAST TO ENTER THE

NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. IN THE LOW LEVELS...A

WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHED ACROSS THE SUB- TROPICAL

ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS

THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS TO SLOWLY REESTABLISHES

NORTH OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEAK...AS IT WILL

BE REINFORCED BY ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST TO ENTER

THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST TO NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS WILL

CONTINUE TO BRING OCCASIONAL SURGES OF SHALLOW MOISTURE ACROSS THE

NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL LEAD TO

PERIODS OF PASSING EARLY MORNING SHOWERS WHICH WILL AFFECT PORTIONS

OF THE NORTH AND EAST COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS FROM TIME TO

TIME. SUFFICIENT AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION TODAY

ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION IN

SOME AREAS. THIS WILL BE FOCUSED MAINLY OVER PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR

AND THE WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL

ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER PORTION OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AS WELL

AS THE ADJACENT ISLANDS WHERE SOME MAY FORM AND QUICKLY STREAM ACROSS

THOSE AREAS. SO FAR THE PRESENT WEATHER PATTERN AND LATEST MODEL

GUIDANCE BOTH SUGGEST...NO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE FORECAST

AREA TODAY AND FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

BY NEXT WEEK HOWEVER...LATEST GFS MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUED TO SUGGEST

A WETTER WEATHER PATTERN TO UNFOLD WITH THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER

TROUGH ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC...AND EROSION OF THE

RIDGE ALOFT. MODELS ALSO SUGGEST INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS

BEGINNING EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH GOOD POOLING OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE

REGION BY THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS TO

SINK SOUTHWARDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AND FAVORABLE CONDITIONS

FOR HEAVY RAINS UNFOLD IN THE UPPER LEVELS. THIS IS HOWEVER STILL

SEVERAL DAYS OUT SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND ALLOW TIME FOR THE

MODEL GUIDANCE TO ADJUST AND BECOME MORE CONSISTENT.

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT

TIST...TISX AND TJSJ UNTIL 13/15Z. VICINITY SHOWERS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE

ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA/. SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP

AFTER 13/17Z...INDUCING BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR ACROSS TJMZ AND

TJBQ UNTIL 13/22 WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. TJSJ SOUNDING INDICATED

AND EASTERLY WIND FLOW UP TO 20 KNOTS ALL THE WAY FROM THE SURFACE

TO 32K FEET...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE ALOFT.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS OF 2 TO 5 FEET AND WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS CAN BE

EXPECTED ACROSS REGIONAL WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN

ISLANDS TODAY. MARINE CONDS WILL REMAIN SIMILAR THROUGH SATURDAY.

THEREAFTER...A N-NE SWELL OF 4-6 FT IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE AND SPREAD

ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND CARIBBEAN PASSAGES ON SUNDAY AND

INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY THEN PRECAUTIONARY STATEMENTS AND SMALL

CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR SOME AREAS. STAY TUNED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

SJU 88 76 88 76 / 30 40 40 20

STT 88 78 87 77 / 40 40 40 30

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Nov 14, 2015 4:07:22 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Nov 14, 2015 4:07:22 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
541 AM AST SAT NOV 14 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE OVER
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC. THIS FEATURE WILL BE
LATER SUPPORTED BY A POLAR TROUGH FORECAST TO ENTER THE NORTHWESTERN
ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THEN ESTABLISH JUST WEST OF THE REGION
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHED ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE RIDGE IS TO REESTABLISHES NORTH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AS IT WILL BE REINFORCED BY ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
FORECAST TO ENTER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS IN TURN WILL TIGHTEN THE
LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT AND INCREASE THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ONLY A FEW PASSING LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS WERE
OBSERVED OVERNIGHT MOVING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND BRUSHING
PORTIONS OF THE ISLANDS FROM TIME TO TIME. EXPECT SHOWERS ACTIVITY
AND CLOUDINESS TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE MORNING LEAVING
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. DURING THE AFTERNOON...DAYTIME HEATING WILL
ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION IN SOME AREAS. THIS WILL BE FOCUSED
MAINLY OVER PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR AND THE WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO. ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER
PORTION OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AS WELL AS THE ADJACENT ISLANDS
WHERE THEY MAY FORM AND QUICKLY STREAM ACROSS THOSE AREAS. SO FAR
THE PRESENT WEATHER PATTERN AND LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE BOTH SUGGEST...
NO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.

LATEST GFS MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUED TO SUGGEST A WETTER WEATHER
PATTERN TO UNFOLD WITH THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC...AND THE EROSION OF THE RIDGE
ALOFT. MODELS ALSO SUGGEST INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS
BEGINNING EARLY NEXT WEEK. GOOD POOLING OF MOISTURE IS SUGGESTED
ACROSS THE AREA BY THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK...AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS TO SINK SOUTHWARDS...AND A LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE
SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER THIS PATTERN
UNFOLDS OR NOT...SO FAR ALL SUGGEST A BETTER CHANCE FOR MOISTURE
ADVECTION AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS BY THE LATTER PARTS OF THE THE
UPCOMING WEEK. WILL REMAIN CONSERVATIVE FOR NOW BUT WILL SHOW AN
OVERALL UPWARD TREND IN POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE REGION AND ALLOW TIME FOR THE MODEL GUIDANCE TO ADJUST
AND BECOME MORE CONSISTENT.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THRU AT LEAST
14/10Z. A BAND OF MOISTURE WILL APPROACH THE FLYING AREA FROM THE
EAST AFTER 14/12Z...INCREASING THE CHANCES OF SHRA OVER THE LEEWARD
AND USVI TERMINALS AS WELL AS TJSJ. THEN...TSRA WILL DEVELOP IN AND
AROUND TJMZ AND TJBQ BTW 17-21Z. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL PREVAIL
MAINLY FROM THE EAST AT 15-20 KT WITH HIGHER GUST NEAR TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...MARINE CONDITIONS REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MODERATE
TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS AND 2 TO 5 FOOT SEAS. SEAS WILL HOWEVER
CONTINUE TO RISE SLIGHTLY LATER TONIGHT ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND LOCAL
PASSAGES...AS A NORTHELY SWELL WILL ARRIVE...THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND LOCAL PASSAGES SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. PLEASE
REFER TO THE LATEST COASTAL WATERS FORECAST ISSUED BY WFO SAN JUAN
PR FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND UPDATES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 76 88 78 / 40 20 20 40
STT 88 78 88 77 / 50 30 30 40

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Nov 15, 2015 4:17:52 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Nov 15, 2015 4:17:52 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
601 AM AST SUN NOV 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND REACH THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS ON MONDAY. IN
THE MEANTIME...A POLAR TROUGH WILL ENTER THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC LATER
TODAY...THEN BECOME AMPLIFIED AND SINK SOUTHWARDS TO JUST WEST OF THE
REGION BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. BY THEN...THE UPPER TROUGH PATTERN
IS FORECAST TO PERSIST AT LEAST UNTIL FRIDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT THE EASTERN SEABOARD OF THE UNITED STATES...AND
SPREAD ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS
WILL INCREASE THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ONLY A FEW PASSING TRADE WIND SHOWERS WERE NOTED MOVING
WESTWARD ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING...WITH LITTLE OR
NO PRECIPITATION REACHING THE COASTAL AREAS SO FAR. EXCEPT FOR THESE
PASSING SHOWERS...SOMEWHAT DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING MOST
OF THE DAY AS THE REGION WILL BE ON THE SUBSIDENT SIDE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. STILL HOWEVER EXPECT DIURNALLY INDUCED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
MAINLY OVER PARTS OF THE INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.
RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED ANOTHER SURGE OF TRADE WIND MOISTURE
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS MAY REACH
PARTS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS LATER THIS MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON BUT THEY WILL BE MOSTLY LIGHT AND OF SHORT DURATION.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...EXPECT THE TYPICAL PASSING TRADE WIND SHOWERS
AND MODERATE TRADE WINDS TO PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION. OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING PASSING SHOWERS...WILL BE FOLLOWED BY DIURNALLY
INDUCED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO MAINLY OVER PARTS OF THE INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO.

BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND AT LEAST UNTIL FRIDAY...THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST TO INCREASE... AS MODELS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SINK SOUTHWARD AND
LINGER WEST OF THE REGION BY THEN ALONG WITH INCREASING EAST TO
NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS. THIS PATTERN ALONG WITH THE APPROACH OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE AREA...WILL
FAVOR UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND UNSTABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS. STAY
TUNED...MORE TO COME ON THIS IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TERMINALS FOR
THE NEXT 24 HRS. FOR THE MORNING HOURS...VCSH POSSIBLE FOR TJSJ...TIST
AND TISX...CLEARING AFT 15/14Z. AFTERNOON CONVECTION POSSIBLE...CAUSING
AT LEAST VCTS AT TJMZ AND TJBQ AFTER 15/17Z. POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS
AT TJMZ AS SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA...LIKELY AT SOME POINT
BETWEEN 15/18Z AND 15/22Z. WINDS E-ESE 10 TO 15 KTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS AFT 15/14Z.

&&

.MARINE...THE LOCAL NEAR SHORE BUOYS REPORTED SEAS BELOW 5 FEET
AND WINDS BELOW 15 KTS OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL HOWEVER CONTINUE TO
RISE SLIGHTLY AS A SMALL NORTHERLY SWELL WILL ARRIVE AND SPREAD
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND LOCAL PASSAGES TODAY AND MONDAY. SMALL
CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD THEREFORE EXERCISE CAUTION. PLEASE REFER TO
THE LATEST COASTAL WATERS FORECAST ISSUED BY WFO SAN JUAN PR FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND UPDATES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 76 86 75 / 20 40 40 40
STT 88 77 86 77 / 30 40 40 40

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Nov 16, 2015 4:06:01 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Nov 16, 2015 4:06:01 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
523 AM AST MON NOV 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD WHILE WEAKENING TODAY AND TONIGHT.
A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY MID WEEK AND ACROSS THE
LOCAL REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL INDUCE AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES SEABOARD WILL CONTINUE
TO PROMOTE AN EASTERN WIND FLOW UNTIL MID WEEK...SHIFTING TO THE
NORTHEAST BY THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS
MORNING. SHOWERS MOVED FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS ACROSS THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS...VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO FROM
TIME TO TIME. THIS MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO COMBINE WITH DAYTIME
HEATING AND LOCAL EFFECTS THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN AND
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE EASTWARD WHILE WEAKENING TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL THEN AMPLIFY ACROSS THE REGION BY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS. THESE FEATURES WILL PRODUCE AND INCREASE IN MOISTURE
WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
AND THE SURROUNDING WATERS. A RAPID DECREASE IN MOISTURE IS THEN
EXPECTED BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO THE
EAST OF THE REGION AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMNANT DISSIPATES
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS SOUTH OF THE REGION. THE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE MOSTLY FROM THE EAST UNTIL WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL SHIFT
FROM THE NORTHEAST AND INCREASING AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHES.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDS AT ALL TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24
HRS. ISOLD-SCT SHRA EN ROUTE BTW ISLANDS...SCT020...SCT050 OCNL
BKN050...W/VCSH AT TJSJ...TJNR...TIST...TISX... TNCM...TKPK TIL
16/14Z. BRIEF MVFR PSBL W/PASSING SHRA AND MTN TOP OBSCR OVR ERN PR.
FM 16/17Z-16/22Z...SCT SHRA/ISOLD TSRA OVR CTRL AND WEST PR W/BRIEF
MVFR CONDS IN SHRA/ISOLD TSRA AT AND AROUND TJMZ... TJBQ. MOSTLY VFR
AFT 17/23Z. SFC WND FM E 10 KT OR LESS... EXCEPT W/PASSING SHRA...
BCMG FM ESE 10-15 KTS AFT 16/14Z...W/HIGHER GUST UP TO 22 KTS TIL
16/22Z. WINDS ALFT FM ESE 15-25 KT BLO FL280.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 6 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS TODAY. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE
ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 76 88 76 / 50 30 30 30
STT 87 77 87 77 / 40 50 50 30

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Nov 17, 2015 4:27:33 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Nov 17, 2015 4:27:33 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
546 AM AST TUE NOV 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY
ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND
THEN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES OVER THE REGION. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
EMERGING ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES SEABOARD WILL PROMOTE A
LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH
AT LEAST SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN AREA OF MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADES WILL
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THIS
MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH LOCAL EFFECTS WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EMERGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
PUSH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY. AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME
FROM THE NORTHEAST LATE WEDNESDAY AND INTO AT LEAST SATURDAY.
THIS WIND FLOW WILL TRANSPORT PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS. A DECREASE IN MOISTURE IS EXPECTED BY FRIDAY
AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS SOUTH OF
PUERTO RICO...BUT SOME PASSING SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE
NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO
ARE NOT RULE OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDS AT ALL TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24
HRS. SCT-BKN CLD LYRS...FL020...FL050...FL100. HOWEVER PASSING TRADE
WIND SHRA/AND OR ISOLD TSRA MAY AFFECT TJSJ/TJNR/TIST/TISX/TNCM/
TKPK TIL 17/12Z. THIS WILL LEAD TO BRIEF MVFR DUE TO LOW CLDS AND
VIS 4-5SM IN SHRA. MTN TOP OBSCR OVR ERN PR DUE TO LOW SCUD CLDS AND
-RA/SHRA. FEW CB N AND S OF PR...ISOLD MAX TOP 340 TIL 17/12Z. LOW
LEVEL SFC WNDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TIL 17/14Z... BCMG FM E-SE
10 TO 15 KTS WITH OCNL HIGHR GUST AFTER 17/14Z TIL 17/22Z.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UP TO 5 OR 6 FEET ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK. NORTHERLY SWELL EXPECTED
TO MOVE IN LATE THIS WEEK AND CAUSE SEAS TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE
HAZARDOUS BY FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 76 88 76 / 40 40 40 30
STT 86 77 87 76 / 50 40 40 30

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Nov 18, 2015 4:29:14 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Nov 18, 2015 4:29:14 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
550 AM AST WED NOV 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A WEAK TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN CUBA
THIS MORNING EXTENDING FROM A STRONG LOW IN THE WEST CENTRAL
ATLANTIC WILL MOVE ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
THURSDAY. FLOW WILL BECOME MORE WEST NORTHWEST WHEN HIGH PRESSURE
SPREADS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AS THE LOW ROTATES OUT OF THE
AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE JET AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH TO PASS
WILL PASS OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT OF THE FOLLOWING WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM SOUTH CAROLINA TO THE WESTERN
TROPICAL ATLANTIC. A TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE WESTERN TROPICAL
ATLANTIC TODAY AND THURSDAY. THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD WEAKLY OVER
THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. TROUGHINESS RETURNS MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.
A BAND OF MODEST MOISTURE MOVES OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT
BUT CLEARS RAPIDLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND MID LEVELS BECOME VERY
DRY. MOISTURE RETURNS MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
DIMINISH AS LOW PRESSURE GROWS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TODAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. THAT LOW WILL PULL NORTH...BUT AS IT DOES SO LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMA ISLANDS SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND PULL AN
ACCOMPANYING TROUGH AND SHOWERS OVER THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. THE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK
NEXT WEEK AND WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...EASTERLY FLOW HAS BROUGHT SHOWERS TO PUERTO RICO
AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS WERE BRIEF.
ACCUMULATIONS WERE LIGHT IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...BUT A FEW OF
THE SHOWERS IN EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND ALONG THE NORTH COAST WERE
MODERATE TO HEAVY WITH SOME LEAVING MORE THAN ONE TENTH INCH OF
RAIN. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS WINDS BECOME MORE
NORTHERLY WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH
NORTHEAST. FORECAST INSTABILITY REACHES A MAXIMUM FOR THE NEXT 10
DAYS TODAY...WITH A LIFTED IN INDEX OF AROUND MINUS 6. THIS
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. MID
LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO DIMINISH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND IS
COMPLETELY GONE BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THEN RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AT 600
MB ARE FORECAST BY THE GFS TO STAY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS UNTIL
SUNDAY EVENING. THIS SHOULD RESTRICT TOPS TO LESS THAN 12 KFT AND
POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO ALMOST NIL.

ALTHOUGH MID LEVELS DRY OUT...LOWER LEVELS ARE GENERALLY MOIST WITH
A FEW DRY BANDS MOVING THROUGH AND THIS WILL KEEP LIGHT SHOWERS
PREVALENT ON THE WINDWARD SIDE OF THE ISLANDS. THE MOST NOTABLE
DRY BAND AT 850 MB COMES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SOME CLEARING IS
EXPECTED THEN. THIS ALSO COINCIDES WITH THE HIGHEST LIFTED INDEX
OF THE NEXT 10 DAYS COMING IN JUST BELOW 3. THEN FLOW TURNS TO
THE EAST AT LOWER LEVELS AND MOISTURE PUNCHING IN IS EXPECTED TO
FORM SHOWERS ALONG THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND OVER OR
JUST NORTH OF THE NORTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
MOISTURE THEN CONTINUES ALL NEXT WEEK WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY
ENHANCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. CURRENTLY
THE GFS IS EXPECTING A SHOWERY THANKSGIVING DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS DURING THE
FCST PERIOD. HOWEVER PASSING TRADE WIND SHRA MAY AFFECT TJSJ/TJNR/
TIST/TISX/TNCM/TKPK DURING THE MORNING HOURS...THEN AFT 18/17Z
MOUNT OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL
LEADING TO BRIEF MVFR DUE TO LOW CLDS AND VIS 4-5SM IN SHRA/TSRA
OVER TJMZ/TJBQ. MTN TOP OBSCURATIONS OVR ERN PR DUE TO AFTERNOON
SHRA/ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. SFC WNDS WILL BE FM THE
E-NE AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH OCNL HIGHER GUST AND SEA BREEZE
VARIATIONS AFTER 17/13Z.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL DIMINISH TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...BUT
WILL INCREASE CONSIDERABLY THEREAFTER UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING IN
NORTH NORTHEAST SWELL. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED
BEGINNING EARLY FRIDAY FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND PASSAGES.
ANOTHER PULSE WILL MOVE IN BEGINNING SATURDAY AND LAST INTO
SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 76 86 76 / 50 60 70 60
STT 87 76 89 75 / 50 60 60 40

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Nov 19, 2015 3:59:35 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Nov 19, 2015 3:59:35 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
505 AM AST THU NOV 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THE PERIPHERY OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
AREA FRIDAY FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND PERSIST THROUGH
TUESDAY. A WEAK TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. FLOW
WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK AS
ANOTHER TROUGH DIG SOUTH INTO CUBA.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE BAHAMA ISLANDS WILL SHIFT
SOUTHWARD OVER THE WEEKEND WHILE A TROUGH FROM THE WEST CENTRAL
ATLANTIC STRETCHING INTO THE WESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC PULLS INTO
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
CARIBBEAN UNTIL A WEAK TROUGH PASSES TO THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY OF
NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE AT MID LEVELS WILL BEGIN DIMINISHING TODAY AND
BY LATE TONIGHT WILL HAVE BECOME INSIGNIFICANT. SOME MOISTURE
RETURNS ON SATURDAY AT THE LOWEST MID LEVELS...OTHERWISE LIMITED
MOISTURE WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WEAKENS
BUT REMAINS THERE UNTIL SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC STRENGTHENS UNTIL FRIDAY AND THEN PULLS RAPIDLY UP INTO
THE NORTH ATLANTIC...LEAVING MODERATE TRADE WINDS OVER THE AREA.
A TROUGH FORMS OVER THE BAHAMAS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND THEN
SHIFTS TO OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
WEAKEN LOCAL WINDS BY TUESDAY AND BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS IN THE BAND OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE APPROACHING FRONT FORMED NORTH OF THE AREA AND SLOWLY GATHERED
ENOUGH STRENGTH TO ARRIVE ONSHORE IN PUERTO RICO FROM DORADO TO
CAMUY. SHOWERS WERE ALSO APPROACHING THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS FROM THE NORTHEAST. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS ON THE NORTH COAST AND NORTHERN
TIER OF THE U.S VIRGIN ISLAND THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS. THIS AFTERNOON THE SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE ENHANCED
BY LOCAL HEATING OVER THE INTERIOR OF PUERTO RICO AND SPREAD TO
THE INTERIOR AND INTO THE SOUTHWEST AND OFFSHORE. AT THIS TIME
URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO COME INLAND ON THE
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...BUT THE MOISTURE WILL
DECREASE RAPIDLY AS THE MID LAYERS DRY OUT AND BOTH THE STRENGTH
AND COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY. ON
SATURDAY ANOTHER BAND OF MOISTURE WILL DESCEND OUT OF THE NORTH
OVER THE AREA AND BRING SCATTERED BUT SHALLOW SHOWERS WITH VERY
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. THERE IS LITTLE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY DUE TO THE WITHERING DRYNESS OF THE MID LAYERS
AFTER FRIDAY. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS
THROUGH THE AREA ON EASTERLY FLOW MOST OF NEXT WEEK. A TROUGH
MIGRATING FROM THE WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL ALSO REPLENISH SOME
OF THE MOISTURE AND BRING BETTER SHOWER ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE INTERIOR AS WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHTER AND LOCAL CONVERGENCE
WILL COME INTO PLAY.

&&

.AVIATION...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES CLOSER TO LOCAL ISLANDS THIS
MORNING...EXPECT ENE WINDS WITH PERIODS OF SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE AT THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS OF PR AND USVI AND VCSH AT THE LEEWARD TERMINALS
THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. AFT 19/16Z SHRA/TSRA WILL INCREASE MAINLY
OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN RANGE AND OVER SOUTHWESTERN PR...TO
PRODUCE MVFR CONDITIONS AT TJMZ/TJPS. ENE WINDS AT 10 TO 15
KTS WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AFT 19/13Z.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS HAVE BEEN MOSTLY 3 TO 5 FEET ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. THE SWELL ANTICIPATED FOR TONIGHT IS STILL EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE...BUT SEAS AT BUOY 41043 SPIKED TO 7.2 FEET JUST AFTER THE
COASTALS WERE SENT. SHOULD THIS PROVE TO BE A VALID READING WOULD
EXPECT SEAS TO RISE TO NEAR 7 FEET BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN
NORTHERLY SWELL. WILL CONSIDER UPDATING THE FORECAST LATER THIS
MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 76 85 76 / 40 50 30 30
STT 86 78 87 77 / 40 30 20 40

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Nov 20, 2015 5:12:42 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Nov 20, 2015 5:12:42 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR

642 AM AST FRI NOV 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...AN UPSTREAM RIDGE AND RECENT TROUGH

PASSAGE HAVE BROUGHT NORTHERLY FLOW TO THE AREA. THE RIDGE WILL

FLATTEN OUT AND FLOW WILL BECOME WEST NORTHWEST TONIGHT THROUGH

EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK RIDGE WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY NIGHT.

THEN AN APPROACHING TROUGH WILL HOLD THE AREA ON THE ENTRANCE OF

THE SUB TROPICAL JET UNTIL WINDS BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST

AS ANOTHER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THE FOLLOWING

WEEKEND.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN. A WEAK TROUGH

WILL PASS THROUGH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC MID WEEK THEN DEEPEN IN

PLACE LATE NEXT WEEK DIGGING INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IN THE

PROCESS. DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE AT MID LEVELS THROUGH MONDAY WITH

MOISTURE RETURNING GRADUALLY DURING THE WEEK NEXT WEEK.

AT LOWER LEVELS...THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL DRIFT

EASTWARD AS THE WEAK TROUGH ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OF THE U.S.

STRENGTHENS. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE RAPIDLY NORTH NORTHEAST BUT WILL

ALSO PULL A WEAK TROUGH UP FROM THE CARIBBEAN OVER THE LOCAL AREA

THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE OVER THE

AREA WILL TEND TO DIMINISH OVER THE WEEKEND BUT THE PRESENCE OF

THE TROUGH WILL BRING IN SOME MORE MOISTURE WITH A LARGER INCREASE

TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS...SOME HEAVY MOVED THROUGH THE LOCAL

ATLANTIC WATERS OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH MUCH OF PUERTO RICO AND THE

U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. SHOWERS WERE TAPERING OFF AT SUNRISE BUT

LIGHT SHOWERS STILL COVERED MUCH OF THE INTERIOR OF PUERTO RICO

AND THE CARIBBEAN WATERS EAST OF A NORTH-SOUTH LINE THROUGH PONCE.

SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TODAY...ALTHOUGH SOME LIMITED

CONVECTION SHOULD RE-DEVELOP OVER THE INTERIOR OF PUERTO RICO

DURING THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK BAND OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO

SPREAD OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW...BUT

THESE WILL BE SHALLOW SHOWERS WITH ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. WINDS

WILL BECOME EASTERLY OVERNIGHT ON SATURDAY AND SHOWERS WILL TAPER

OFF CONSIDERABLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED

ON THE EASTERN SLOPES OF PUERTO RICO AND TO A LESSER EXTENT OVER

THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS EACH MORNING EARLY NEXT WEEK. SHOWERS WILL

INCREASE AS THE TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE EXERTS MORE INFLUENCE OVER

THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF

SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 20/12Z. HOWEVER...BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS WILL

AFFECT TIST...TJSJ AND TJBQ FROM TIME TO TIME. A DRY AIR MASS IS

EXPECTED LATER IN THE MORNING...RESULTING IN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES

WITH LITTLE OR NO SHRA ACTIVITY. DURING THE AFTERNOON...SHRA

EXPECTED ALONG THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL. SFC WINDS MAINLY FROM THE NE

AT 10 TO 15 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN/NEAR SHRA WITH SEA BREEZE

VARIATIONS AFT 20/14Z.

&&

.MARINE...A SHARP PULSE OF NORTHEASTERLY SWELL THAT SENT SEAS AT

BUOY 41043 UP TO 11.5 FEET AT 20/01Z IS ARRIVING ON THE NORTH

COAST AT THIS TIME AND THE LOCAL SAN JUAN BUOY 41053 HAS SPIKED TO

8.5 FEET. SINCE THE OUTER BUOY HAS SINCE SUBSIDED TO 8.5 FEET THE

PULSE NOW MOVING ONSHORE IS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TO AROUND 7 FEET

SHORTLY. NEVERTHELESS THIS SWELL EVENT WILL PROVOKE A HIGH RISK OF

RIP CURRENTS. ANOTHER PULSE OF SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE EARLY

SUNDAY MORNING WITH SIMILAR RESULTS. IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE HIGH

RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL

EXTEND THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

SJU 84 76 84 76 / 60 30 30 30

STT 86 77 86 77 / 40 30 30 30

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Nov 21, 2015 4:29:39 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Nov 21, 2015 4:29:39 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
619 AM AST SAT NOV 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS...A WEAK AND BROAD RIDGE
COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM THE WEST. A WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD TO
THE NORTHEAST AND MOVE OVER THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY NIGHT. A TROUGH
WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH FROM THE WEST LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. A TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE LATE NEXT WEEK AND MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THE
FOLLOWING MONDAY. MID LEVELS ARE VERY DRY UNTIL MONDAY AND AGAIN
ON TUESDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE INCREASES GRADUALLY UNTIL THE FOLLOWING
MONDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST BETWEEN THE HIGHER
PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHWEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND THE SOUTHWEST
CARIBBEAN LOW UNTIL A TROUGH FORMING JUST OFFSHORE FROM THE
UNITED STATES IN THE ATLANTIC MOVES OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. WEAKER WINDS WILL PREVAIL...BUT HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
INTO THE NORTHEAST CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL INCREASE WINDS SOMEWHAT.
SHOWERS WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LIGHT SHOWERS MOVED INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL COAST OF
PUERTO RICO SPREADING A FEW HUNDREDTHS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION
OF THE ISLAND AND TRACES OVER THE SAN JUAN METROPOLITAN AREA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE NORTHEAST FLOW AND AFFECT
MOST OF THE ISLAND AS THE DAY CONTINUES. WINDS TURN EASTERLY
OVERNIGHT...BUT AS THEY DO...SO WILL THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON THE
NORTHEAST COAST AND INTERIOR. ON SUNDAY PATCHY MOISTURE WILL
BRING SHOWERS TO THE WESTERN INTERIOR WITH EASTERLY FLOW. SHOWERS
ON THE EASTERN END OF PUERTO RICO AND IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT ACCUMULATIONS THERE...IF ANY...WILL BE
SLIGHT.

PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES FROM AROUND 1 INCH LATE TONIGHT TO
ALMOST 2 INCHES EARLY MONDAY NIGHT. SINCE OVERALL MOISTURE
INCREASES CONSIDERABLY MONDAY FROM THE SOUTHEAST...SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE EARLY MONDAY MORNING ON THE WINDWARD SLOPES IN SOUTHEAST
FLOW. A PATCH OF MOISTURE IN THE MID LEVELS WILL ENHANCE SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO MONDAY AFTERNOON.
SOME SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER OVERNIGHT...MAINLY ON WINDWARD
SLOPES. THE GFS IS ESPECIALLY BULLISH ON SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE
CARIBBEAN WATERS EAST OF PUERTO RICO MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT NAM MODEL WAS NOT AS WET THERE...SO HAVE CAPPED POPS
AT 50 PERCENT. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE TYPICAL
DIURNAL PATTERN THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE GFS IS
WETTEST THE MONDAY AFTER NEXT AS MOISTURE IS PULLED NORTHWARD OVER
THE AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD...WITH PASSING SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND THE LEEWARD AND
USVI TERMINALS AS WELL AS TJSJ/TJBQ. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE
ENE AT ABOUT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH THE
DAY...BECOMING EASTERLY TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...A MINIMUM IN THE SWELL AT THE OUTER BUOY HAS OCCURRED
OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH SEAS DID REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 7 FEET ALL
NIGHT. THE MODEL HAS BEEN UNDERESTIMATING SEAS...BUT TIMING SEEMS
PRETTY GOOD. CURRENTLY THE NEXT PEAK IN THE SWELL AT THE OUTER
BUOY IS EXPECTED FROM 21/21Z TO 22/05Z WITH ARRIVAL AT THE INNER
BUOY ABOUT 10 HOURS LATER. THIS MEANS THAT THE HIGHEST SEAS WILL
LIKELY OCCUR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. NEVERTHELESS HIGH SURF CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING THIS MORNING AS THE NEXT PULSE OF
NORTHERLY SWELL BEGINS ARRIVE. HAVE LEFT THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY
IN PLACE AS PREVIOUSLY ANNOUNCED AND HAVE EXTENDED THE HIGH RIP
CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. IT IS LIKELY THAT THIS WILL
NEED TO BE EXTENDED LATER. WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO TAKE THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES DOWN BY MONDAY. HIGHER SEAS WILL RETURN LATER
THIS WEEK OUT OF THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 74 86 76 / 30 30 30 30
STT 84 74 85 76 / 20 20 20 20

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Puerto Rico Weather

Post by cycloneye on Nov 7, 2015 4:09:32 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Nov 8, 2015 4:30:47 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Nov 9, 2015 4:19:57 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Nov 10, 2015 3:41:41 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Nov 11, 2015 4:11:43 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Nov 12, 2015 4:01:50 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Nov 13, 2015 4:00:41 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Nov 14, 2015 4:07:22 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Nov 15, 2015 4:17:52 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Nov 16, 2015 4:06:01 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Nov 17, 2015 4:27:33 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Nov 18, 2015 4:29:14 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Nov 19, 2015 3:59:35 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Nov 20, 2015 5:12:42 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Nov 21, 2015 4:29:39 GMT -6

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