Puerto Rico Weather

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cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Nov 22, 2015 4:13:12 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Nov 22, 2015 4:13:12 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
550 AM AST SUN NOV 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH MONDAY...KEEPING THE CHANGES OF THUNDERSTORMS VERY LOW.
STRONG CAP INVERSION AND VERY DRY AIR MASS AT MID LEVELS WILL
LIMIT THE RAINFALL ACCUMULATION OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THEN...
TROUGH PATTERN WILL ESTABLISH OVER WESTERN ATLANTIC ON TUESDAY AND
PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS TROUGH PATTERN WILL INDUCE
A WET PATTERN ACROSS THE ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY LATE ON THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOISTURE WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE LOCAL
REGION THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT AS MID LEVEL RIDGE AND IT
ASSOCIATED CAP INVERSION WILL DOMINATE THE LOCAL WEATHER. ANY
SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE LIGHT AND OF SHORT
DURATION. LIGHT MORNING SHOWERS WILL FAVOR THE WINDWARD AREAS
WHILE AFTERNOON SHOWERS INDUCED BY SEA BREEZES WILL DEVELOP OVER
NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO.

CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION ON TUESDAY AS
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. UNDER INFLUENCE
OF AMPLIFYING TROUGH...THE CAP INVERSION IS TO WEAKEN AS MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY INCREASE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. ANOTHER SURGE
OF INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED THE NEXT WEEKEND AS ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH/LOW AMPLIFIES BETWEEN BAHAMAS AND HISPANOLA. AT THIS TIME...
LOOKS LIKE THE MOST ACTIVE PERIOD WILL OCCUR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA WITH PASSING SHOWERS AT TIST...TISX AND TJSJ UNTIL
22/15Z. SOME SHRA EXPECTED AFTER 22/16Z ALONG THE CORDILLERA
CENTRAL...BUT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL
TAF SITES WITH MTN OBSCURATIONS IN SCT SHRA. WINDS E-ESE 5 TO 15 KT
UP THRU FL110 WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...A LONG PERIOD NORTHERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO
RESULT IN LARGE BREAKING WAVES...LIFE THREATENING RIP CURRENTS
AND ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND CARIBBEAN PASSAGE
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. SEAS OF 6-8 FEET EXPECTED IN THE NEAR-SHORE
WATERS AND 8 TO 10 FEET IN THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC AND THE LOCAL
PASSAGES. SMALL CRAFT AND HIGH SURF ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 74 87 75 / 30 30 50 20
STT 84 76 84 76 / 20 50 50 40

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Nov 23, 2015 4:05:15 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Nov 23, 2015 4:05:15 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
515 AM AST MON NOV 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. PATCHES OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL AFFECT THE REGION FROM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE
WIND FLOW WERE AFFECTING THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS
MORNING. THESE PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARE EXPECTED TO
LINGER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY INTO TUESDAY. THEREFORE...PASSING
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO AND
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS MORNING. LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON...SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE LOCAL REGION
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. THIS WILL PROMOTE STABLE ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. FOR FRIDAY AND
BEYOND...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS TROUGH WILL BE IN A FAVORABLE POSITION TO
ENHANCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS DURING THE LATER PART OF THIS WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL AT THE LOCAL TAF SITES...BUT
-SHRA ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE LEEWARD AND USVI TERMINALS THE REST
OF THE MORNING. AS A RESULT BRIEF MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE AT TJSJ...TIST
IN PASSING SHRA. THEN...SHRA/ISOLD TSRA WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTHWEST
PR...RESULTING IN PROBABLY MVFR CONDS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS IN
AND AROUND TJBQ AND TJMZ FM23/17Z-21Z. E-ESE WINDS AT 10-15 KTS WITH
SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...BUOY OBSERVATION INDICATED SWELLS HEIGHT OF 7 TO 8 FEET
CONTINUE OVER THE LOCAL WATERS. THEREFORE...OPTED TO EXTEND THE
HIGH SURF ADVISORY AT LEAST UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY IMPROVE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. REFER TO
LATEST COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE PRODUCTS FOR LATEST INFORMATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 74 87 75 / 20 20 20 40
STT 85 76 86 76 / 50 40 40 50

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Nov 24, 2015 4:01:38 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Nov 24, 2015 4:01:38 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
550 AM AST TUE NOV 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...RIDGE IN THE UPPER LEVELS IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER
THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY THE END OF THE
WORKWEEK...DIGGING SOUTH INTO THE CARIBBEAN DURING THE WEEKEND.
AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL WITH PATCHES OF
SLIGHTLY HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AFFECTING THE REGION FROM TIME
TO TIME THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A PATCH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERED ACROSS THE
LOCAL REGION OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WERE NOTED
OVER THE CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS MOVED
INLAND OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN SECTION OF PUERTO RICO. CLEAR SKIES
PREVAIL ACROSS THE REST OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS. FOR TODAY...DIURNAL CYCLE WILL DOMINATE THE LOCAL WEATHER
CONDITIONS TODAY. SEA BREEZE WILL INDUCE SHOWER AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON.

THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE SHOULD BE CLOSE TO NORMAL...SO THE CHANCES
OF MORE SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY AND HOLD MARGINALLY UNSTABLE THROUGH THE
WEEK. HOWEVER FOR THE WEEKEND...AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS DOWN TO THE
WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA...POSSIBLY CAUSING GOOD INSTABILITY AND
INCREASING THE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL AT THE LOCAL TAF SITES.
HOWEVER...SHRA/ISOLD TSRA WILL DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE
INTERIOR...NORTH AND WEST PR...RESULTING IN BRIEF MVFR CONDS AND
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS IN AND AROUND TJBQ AND TJMZ FM 24/17Z-21Z. E
TO ESE WINDS AT 10-15 KTS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 6 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 15 KMOTS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 76 87 76 / 30 20 30 40
STT 86 76 86 76 / 40 30 30 40

&&

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Nov 25, 2015 4:09:45 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Nov 25, 2015 4:09:45 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
554 AM AST WED NOV 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD THROUGH TONIGHT.
THEN...TROUGH PATTERN WILL ESTABLISH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY
THURSDAY AS A CUTOFF LOW AMPLIFIES OVER BAHAMAS AND EASTERN CUBA.
THIS FEATURE WILL GENERATE VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE WEATHER PATTERN
ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES FROM THE WEEKEND TO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL VEER FROM THE SOUTHEAST BY THURSDAY ENHANCING
THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN BASIN WILL
MAINTAIN A FAIRLY DRY AIR MASS BETWEEN 850-400 MB. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. HOWEVER...DIURNAL HEATING WILL INDUCE SEA BREEZES ACROSS THE
ISLAND...RESULTING IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE INTERIOR...NORTH AND WEST PR THIS AFTERNOON. AREAS OF
THE CENTRAL INTERIOR...NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST PR ARE MORE
PRONE TO FLOODING TODAY AS RIVERS AND STREAMS REMAIN HIGH FROM
YESTERDAY`S RAINFALL. ALTHOUGH...HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BETWEEN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE
BEST DYNAMICS REMAIN WEST OF THE LOCAL REGION. HOWEVER...TYPICAL
CONVECTION OVER THE LEEWARD AREAS IS EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON.

CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION DURING THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH/LOW WILL DEEPEN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH/LOW AND
WET SOUTHEAST FLOW...ACTIVE WEATHER WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS FROM SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY THE MODEL SOLUTIONS TO SEE HOW THIS
PATTERN UNFOLDS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 25/17Z. FROM 25/18Z-25/22Z...PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT TJMZ AND
TJBQ IN SHRA/TSRA. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE MAINLY EAST SOUTHEAST AT
10 TO 15 KTS EXCEPT FOR SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS IN COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED TO 2-4 FT ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER LONG PERIOD NORTHERLY SWELL IS FORECAST TO
REACH THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND CARIBBEAN PASSAGES LATE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY...BUILDING THE SEAS TO 6-7 FT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL BE REQUIRED BY THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY MORNING. THIS SWELL
WILL AFFECT THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 76 87 75 / 30 40 40 20
STT 86 76 85 76 / 30 40 40 30

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Nov 26, 2015 4:06:00 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Nov 26, 2015 4:06:00 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
600 AM AST THU NOV 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...TROUGH PATTERN WILL ESTABLISH OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC TODAY. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BECOME A
CUTOFF LOW BY FRIDAY...DIGGING TO THE SOUTH INTO THE BAHAMAS AND
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE DURING THE WEEKEND. BROAD LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL INDUCE A WET SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A FAIRLY DRY AIR MASS BETWEEN 850-400 MB WILL LIMIT
THE ORGANIZED CONVECTION ACROSS THE ISLANDS THROUGH SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH LOCAL EFFECT TO
PRODUCED SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR AND
NORTHWEST PR EACH AFTERNOON.

CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE AND BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR
ORGANIZED CONVECTION FROM SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DEEPEN AND RELOCATE OVER
HISPANOLA BY SUNDAY. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS BROAD UPPER LOW
AND WET SOUTHEAST FLOW... ACTIVE WEATHER WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME...AS EURO MODEL ECMWF SHOWS THE UPPER LOW
FAR TO THE WEST. BECAUSE THE POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW IS CRITICAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION...WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY THE MODEL SOLUTIONS TO SEE HOW
THIS PATTERN UNFOLDS.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. HOWEVER...A FEW MORNING SHOWERS
POSSIBLE ACROSS TIST..TISX...TNCM...TKPK...TJSJ THE REST OF THE
MORNING. AFTERNOON SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE INTERIOR
AND NW PR FROM 26/18Z-22Z...IMPACTING MAINLY JBQ/JMZ. SE WINDS AT
10 TO 15 KT WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS WILL PREVAIL AT LOW LEVELS.

&&

.MARINE...A LONG PERIOD NORTHERLY SWELL WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS
THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND CARIBBEAN PASSAGES THROUGH FRIDAY.
SEAS ARE FORECAST TO PEAK ON FRIDAY NIGHT...REACHING 7-8 FEET ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE ATLANTIC
WATERS AND CARIBBEAN PASSAGES FROM TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY
MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 75 88 77 / 40 20 40 40
STT 86 76 86 77 / 40 30 30 40

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Nov 27, 2015 4:21:29 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Nov 27, 2015 4:21:29 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
415 AM AST FRI NOV 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE HAS CUT OFF NORTH OF
THE BAHAMAS AND WILL CONTINUE DIGGING SOUTH OVER THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VERY SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL
INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. MODERATE TO HEAVY
SHOWERS HAD BEEN REPORTED OVER THESE SIMILAR AREAS THEREFORE THIS
WILL SLIGHTLY INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL STREAMS AND URBAN
AREAS TO FLOOD.

MODELS SUGGEST THAT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY
OVER HISPANIOLA BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL HELP GENERATE
A SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW INCREASING THE MOISTURE CONTENT
ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. THEREFORE CONDITIONS
WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION FROM SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE PWAT VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY INCREASES FROM NEAR
1.50 INCHES TODAY TO AROUND 2.0 INCHES BY SUNDAY AND ABOVE 2.0
INCHES MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY THE
SITUATION TO SEE HOW THIS PATTERN UNFOLDS.

A NORTHERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MAINLY THE ATLANTIC
EXPOSED BEACHES OF PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY
IS ISSUED WHEN THE BREAKING WAVE ACTION POSES A THREAT TO LIFE AND
PROPERTY WITHIN THE SURF ZONE. BEACH GOERS SHOULD EXPECT STRONG
RIP CURRENTS AND BREAKING WAVES OF ABOVE 10 FEET.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. HOWEVER...A FEW BRIEF SHRA ACROSS
TIST..TISX...TNCM...TKPK...TJSJ CAN BE EXPECTED FROM TIME TO TIME IN
THE MORNING. AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DOWNWIND
FROM EL YUNQUE AND MAY AFFECT THE VICINITY OF TJSJ...ALSO FROM
27/17Z-22Z OVER THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR TO MAINLY
IMPACT JBQ/JMZ. SFC WINDS FROM THE ESE AT 10 TO 15 KT WITH SEA
BREEZE VARIATIONS AFTER 27/13Z.

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE SWELLS ARE ALREADY AFFECTING THE ATLANTIC LOCAL
WATERS AND LOCAL PASSAGES THIS MORNING AND THEY ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE AS THE DAY GOES BY. THIS NORTHERLY SWELL WILL PEAK ON
FRIDAY NIGHT. IT WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE FROM SATURDAY MORNING
THROUGH TUESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL
ATLANTIC WATERS AND LOCAL PASSAGES THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 76 87 75 / 40 40 50 40
STT 86 77 85 76 / 40 40 50 60

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Nov 28, 2015 4:14:24 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Nov 28, 2015 4:14:24 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
552 AM AST SAT NOV 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL LINGER
CLOSE TO THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS TROUGH WILL INDUCE
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AFFECTING THE
REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...INCREASING CLOUDINESS WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WAS OBSERVED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS...MAINLY OVER THE
MONA PASSAGE OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE
OBSERVED OVER THE LOCAL WATERS NORTH OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO. THIS ACTIVITY IS IN RESPONSE TO A
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH IS LOCATED WEST OF THE AREA.
THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT
LEAST MID NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WILL CREATE A VERY UNSTABLE AND A
WET PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION MAINLY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY NEXT
WEEK. AS A RESULT...A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED. AT THIS MOMENT...THE WETTEST
DAY LOOKS LIKE WOULD BE TUESDAY...AS THIS TROUGH BRINGS ACTIVE
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION.

IN THE LONG TERM...THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST BY COMPUTER MODELS TO
WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK...AND AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION. AS A
RESULT...DRIER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO ENCOMPASS THE
REGION BY THE LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED IN THE MORNING HOURS. CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY WITH CIGS DEVELOPING ROUGHLY AT
FL050-060. SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY IS ALSO EXPECTED TO INCREASE TODAY
CAUSING AT LEAST VCTS/VCSH ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL TERMINALS. WINDS
WILL BE FROM THE EAST TO E-SE AT 10-15 KNOTS TODAY WITH SEA BREEZE
VARIATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND PASSAGES WILL RANGE BETWEEN
6 TO 8 FEET TODAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES...HIGH SURF ADVISORY
AND HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR THE NORTHERN BEACHES OF PR AND
PARTS OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS CONTINUE IN EFFECT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 75 86 76 / 40 20 50 20
STT 85 77 85 76 / 40 50 50 20

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Nov 29, 2015 4:51:09 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Nov 29, 2015 4:51:09 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
642 AM AST SUN NOV 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER
WEST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE WORKWEEK.
AN INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN WILL
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS.
OVERALL...CLOUDY AND WET CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDWEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE LOCAL ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE
WORKWEEK. AS THIS FEATURE MEANDERS WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA...
CONTINUE TO EXPECT AN OVERALL CLOUDY AND WET PATTERN WITH
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

PLENTY OF MOISTURE AS WELL AS INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY...AND SLOWLY DIMINISHING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS EASTERN
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. SHOWER AND THUNDER
ACTIVITY ACROSS WEST PUERTO RICO WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON
CLOUDINESS. DUE TO ALREADY SATURATED SOILS...BUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN US VIRGIN ISLANDS...ANY PROLONGED PERIOD OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL RESULT IN URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING. A DRIER
AIR MASS IS EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK...WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL BE OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY...
ESPECIALLY OVER PUERTO RICO WHERE THE MORE PERSISTENT RAIN IS
EXPECTED. CIGS AT ABOUT FL060-080 ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH TEMPO
MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AT TKPK AND TNCM. TSRA POSSIBLE OVER
THE VICINITY OF TJSJ/TJMZ/TJBQ AFTER 29/17Z. WINDS FROM THE EAST
TO ESE AT AROUND 10-15 KTS TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...NORTHERLY SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE HAZARDOUS
SEAS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND ALL PASSAGES THIS MORNING WITH
SEAS UP TO 7 FEET AND BREAKING WAVES NEAR HIGH SURF ADVISORY
CRITERIA. THEREFORE DECIDED TO EXTEND HIGH SURF ADVISORY TILL 11
AM THIS MORNING. MARINE CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE LATER
TODAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 76 85 76 / 60 30 30 20
STT 84 74 85 75 / 30 30 30 20

&&

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Nov 30, 2015 4:29:40 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Nov 30, 2015 4:29:40 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
538 AM AST MON NOV 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...CLOUDINESS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS ABOVE AVERAGE MOISTURE CONTINUES OVER THE
AREA AND THE MID TO UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDING
INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA MEANDERS ALOFT UNTIL MID WEEK.
INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH NORTH OF THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO PROMOTE LIGHT TO MODERATE E-ESE TRADE WINDS OVER THE LOCAL
AREA. AN EASTERLY PERTURBATION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA ON WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE THIS WEEKEND AS
DRIER AIR MOVES IN AND AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES INTO THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ABOVE AVERAGE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER
THE AREA THROUGH THIS WEEK...WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE PRESENT FROM
NOW INTO MIDWEEK...THEN DECREASING SLIGHTLY FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK AND EVEN DRIER AIR MOVING IN ON SATURDAY. THE UPPER LOW TO
THE WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA SHOULD REMAIN STRONG UNTIL AT EAST
WEDNESDAY...THEN WEAKEN FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK WHILE AN
UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS NEAR THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS
CURRENT SETUP SHOULD KEEP THE LOCAL AREA AT LEAST MOSTLY CLOUDY
WITH SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IF THE
CLOUDINESS BREAKS. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE UPPER
LEVELS WILL BE SATURATED WHICH IS NORMALLY INDICATIVE OF
CLOUDINESS IN THE UPPER LEVELS.

TODAY SEEMS TO BE THE DAY WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WHILE THE OVERALL CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS
AND COVERAGE SEEM TO DIMINISH GRADUALLY EACH DAY THIS WEEK...WITH
MORE LIGHT THAN MODERATE OR HEAVY SHOWERS EXPECTED AFTER TODAY.

&&

.AVIATION...TROFINESS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA AND
WILL RESULT IN CLOUDINESS AND PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY. UNDER ESE WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KTS...PERIODS OF MVFR OR EVEN
IFR CONDS POSSIBLE AT JBQ...JSJ AND USVI TERMINALS AFT 30/16Z IN
SHRA/TSRA. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS EXPECTED. ELSEWHERE...VCSH/VCTS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC
AND THE ANEGADA PASSAGE UNTIL 8 AM AST THIS MORNING. NORTHERLY
SWELL CONTINUES TO SUBSIDE AND THE NEARSHORE BUOYS ARE NOW
REPORTING SEAS OF AROUND 5 FEET. HOWEVER THE BUOY 40143 TO THE
NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS WAS TILL REPORTING SEAS OF 8 FEET...FOR
THAT REASON WE LEFT THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR OUR LOCAL OUTER
WATERS THROUGH 8 AM AST. THEREAFTER...SEAS SHOULD BE GENERALLY IN
THE 4 TO 6 FOOT RANGE WITH OCCASIONAL SEAS OF 7 OR EVEN 8 FEET.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL
WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 77 89 76 / 60 20 30 40
STT 85 76 87 78 / 50 40 40 40

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Dec 1, 2015 3:39:32 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Dec 1, 2015 3:39:32 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
527 AM AST TUE DEC 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A PATCH OF DRIER AIR MOVED THROUGH THE AREA
TODAY...BUT EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES AGAIN
LATER TODAY...THEN REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN
DRYING QUICKLY ON SATURDAY. UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE LOCAL
ISLANDS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE WEST AND SLOWLY WEAKEN ON
WEDNESDAY...THEN AN UPPER RIDGE STARTS TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA.
THE WEAK MID LEVEL LOW WILL STAY UNTIL WEDNESDAY...MID LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE DEVELOPING EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VERY LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS OBSERVED DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. A PATCH OF DRIER AIR
MOVED IN OVERNIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN
BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND WESTERN PR
THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE THE USVI AND THE WATERS OBSERVE SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVE IN FROM THE EAST IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. SIMILAR PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY BUT WITH
THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION MORE OVER THE NW QUADRANT OF PR THEN
SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS...EASTERN PR AND THE USVI DURING
THE NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE THERE IS ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS THE UPPER AND MID LEVEL LOW WEAKENS
AND THE MID AND UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS. FOR FRIDAY AND THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...BRIEF SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED TODAY WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDS
POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TSRA EARLY IN THE MORNING HOURS AT THE LEEWARD
TERMINALS AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AT USVI TERMINALS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER AND WEST OF THE CORDILLERA AND WILL
RESULT IN PERIODS OF MVFR CONDS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS IN AND
AROUND JMZ/JBQ 01/16-22Z. ESE WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS EXPECTED WITH
SOME SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION AS SEAS ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH 6 FEET ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE WATERS
NEAR VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND THE NORTHERN USVI. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY
FROM THE EAST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS UNTIL HIGHER WAVES REACH THE LOCAL
WATERS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 77 89 77 / 20 50 50 30
STT 86 77 86 78 / 30 50 50 40

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Dec 2, 2015 4:21:09 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Dec 2, 2015 4:21:09 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
607 AM AST WED DEC 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE EVEN MORE FOR TODAY
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT THE UPPER
LOW WILL LINGER A BIT LONGER OVER OUR AREA...KEEPING THE UPPER LOW
THROUGH FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN
TODAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN
TODAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SURPASSING 2 INCHES. THE
UPPER LOW IS STILL TO THE WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA...PROVIDING GOOD
VENTILATION ALOFT. GIVEN THE RECENT WEATHER UNDER SIMILAR
CONDITIONS...IT IS EXPECTED THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ONCE AGAIN AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA MUCH LIKE IT WAS THE CASE
YESTERDAY. THE MORNING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF AS THE
MORNING PROGRESSES THEN SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF
PR. THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE NIGHT WE EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS...PARTICULARLY NEAR THE USVI
AND OVER EASTERN PR.

THURSDAY LOOKS A BIT LESS RAINY AS DRIER AIR WILL SLOWLY FILTER IN
BUT ANOTHER PATCH OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY. THE
DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE UPPER LOW...EVEN THOUGH IT WILL BE
PRESENT...IT WILL BE A BIT FURTHER EAST AND A BIT WEAKER...SO THE
WINDS ALOFT WILL BE WEAKER AND THEREFORE THE VENTILATION ALOFT MAY
NOT SUPPORT DEEPER CONVECTION FOR AS LONG AS IT WAS
RECENTLY...HOWEVER SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL
QUITE POSSIBLE.

THE MORE SIGNIFICANTLY DRY AIR SEEMS TO BE PUSHED BACK UNTIL LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THEN FOR THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK...PATCHES OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA...BRINGING SOME MOMENTS OF SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...AS SFC TROF AFFECTS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA
TODAY...EXPECT SHRA/ISLD TSTMS MAINLY OVER THE WATERS.
HOWEVER...AT LEAST THRU 16Z THEY COULD AFFECT THE USVI/EASTERN PR
TERMINALS RESULTING IN BRIEF MVFR CONDS W/MTN OBSCURATIONS OVER
EL YUNQUE. SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED LATER IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
MTN RANGES OF PR...WITH MVFR CONDS AND MTN TOP OBSCD ONCE AGAIN
OVER MAINLAND PR. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL FM THE E-SE AT 10 TO 20
KNOTS...WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS ACROSS WESTERN PR AFTER 14Z.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 4 TO 6 FEET RANGE ACROSS THE
LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS...THEREFORE FOR MOST OF THESE WATERS
MARINERS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION. SEAS WILL REMAIN IN THE RANGE OF
3 TO 5 FEET ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM
THE E-SE. SEAS TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN LATE FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 76 89 77 / 50 30 20 20
STT 86 77 87 77 / 50 40 20 30

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Dec 3, 2015 4:23:38 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Dec 3, 2015 4:23:38 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
544 AM AST THU DEC 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A WEAKENING CUT-OFF LOW OVER HAITI
WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA...PULLING A TROUGH ACROSS
US SATURDAY. A RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. A
WEAK TROUGH WILL CROSS THROUGH ON FRIDAY. CONSIDERABLE DRYING WILL
OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND AND LAST UNTIL TUESDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST CENTRAL
ATLANTIC WILL RETREAT TO THE EAST. ANOTHER HIGH WILL MOVE INTO
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NORTH OF A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE WATERS NEAR
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. WHEN THIS HIGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC MONDAY THE WEAK TROUGH WILL DEEPEN...FORM A STRONG LOW
THAT MOVES NORTH...AND CAUSE LOCAL LOW LEVEL FLOW TO TURN MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY BY MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. A SHEAR LINE WILL APPROACH
THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE PATCHES OF MOISTURE WITH NARROW
RIBBONS OF DRIER AIR WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS WEEK BRINGING
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH MODERATE ACCUMULATIONS. THESE
WILL TEMPORARILY DIMINISH OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A FEW SHOWERS MOVED ONSHORE ACROSS EASTERN PUERTO
RICO LEAVING UP TO A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN. THUNDERSTORMS GREW
AROUND THE WATERS SURROUNDING THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...BUT
REMAINED WEST OF THE AREA. THE GFS WAS UNDERESTIMATING THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER...BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AROUND 2
INCHES THROUGH SATURDAY. WITH WEAK DYNAMICS BEING CONTRIBUTED BY
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN THE AFTERNOONS IN WESTERN PUERTO RICO
WITH SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL...BUT MOST OTHER AREAS WILL SEE ONLY
LIGHT AMOUNTS IN PASSING SHOWERS. SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED OVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN MID LEVELS BECOME VERY
DRY...BUT MOISTURE RETURNS BY MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH SHOWERS
WILL INCREASE THEN...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO
LIMIT CONVECTION NEXT WEEK AS WELL. LATE NEXT WEEK THE GFS SHOWS A
WEAK SHEAR LINE APPROACHING THE AREA AS A TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.
THIS TROUGH IS ACTUALLY INDUCED BY THE LOW PRESSURE THAT FORMED
STRONGLY ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OF THE UNITED STATES AND MOVED
NORTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TERMINALS
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...BETWEEN 03/18-21Z MTN TOPS
WILL BE OBSCURED WITH TSRA/SHRA EXPECTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND
WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR. THIS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDS AT TJMZ AND TJBQ. WINDS AT 10-20 KTS FM THE E-SE BLO
FL100...E-NE WINDS BETWEEN FL100-200. SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AFTER
14Z.

&&

.MARINE...WITH WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS ACROSS THE EXPOSED WATERS
SEAS WILL BE ROUGH. BY FRIDAY SEAS OF 7 FEET WILL BEGIN TO BE
ENCOUNTERED IN THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE OUTER ATLANTIC WATERS.
THESE WILL EXTEND INTO THE ANEGADA PASSAGE SATURDAY. LATEST MODEL
RUNS SHOW SEAS DIMINISHING BELOW 7 FEET IN OUR LOCAL WATERS AFTER
MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 76 87 77 / 30 50 30 40
STT 88 77 87 77 / 20 40 20 20

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Dec 4, 2015 4:12:56 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Dec 4, 2015 4:12:56 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
537 AM AST FRI DEC 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER WEST OF THE LOCAL
ISLANDS THROUGH SUNDAY WHILE WEAKENING. A MID LEVEL RIDGE
CONTINUES TO HOLD ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
A MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE ISLANDS
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PASSING
SHOWERS WERE NOTED MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH SOME OF
THEM AFFECTING THE USVI AND THE EAST COASTAL AREAS OF PUERTO
RICO. TEMPS WERE IN THE MID 70S ACROSS COASTAL AREAS AND WINDS
WERE FROM THE EAST AT 10 MPH OR LESS.

WITH NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER AND FRESH TRADE WINDS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...CONTINUE
TO EXPECT PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS FROM TIME TO
TIME...FOLLOWED BY ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS
WESTERN PUERTO RICO IN THE AFTERNOON.

FAIR AND STABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH MOSTLY SUNNY/CLEAR SKIES AND LIMITED
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ISLANDS UNDER RIDGE PATTERN AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WELL BELOW NORMAL. MOISTURE WILL RETURN
TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES MONDAY AFTERNOON AND HOLD MUCH OF NEXT WEEK
BUT WITHOUT MAJOR FORCING...TRADE WIND SHOWERS WILL PREVAIL EACH
DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TERMINALS DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...THRU AT LEAST 12Z PASSING -SHRA WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS BTW LEEWARD ISLANDS AND COULD REACH
PARTS OF THE USVI/EASTERN PR TERMINALS. THIS MAY RESULT IN BRIEF MTN
TOP OBSCD DUE TO -SHRA AND LOW CLD LYRS OVR ERN PR. ALSO...ISLD/SCT
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN PR MAINLY FM 18-
21Z...IMPACTING MAINLY JMZ. LOW LEVEL EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
BETWEEN 10-22 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...CHOPPY AND ROUGH CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS AS TRADE WINDS INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
SEAS 6 TO 7 FEET WITH OCCASIONAL SEAS UP TO 8 FEET EXPECTED
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK MAINLY ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
WATERS. AS A RESULT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE IN EFFECT
LATER TODAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 76 87 76 / 30 30 10 20
STT 87 76 87 76 / 20 30 20 20

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Dec 5, 2015 4:10:58 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Dec 5, 2015 4:10:58 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
538 AM AST SAT DEC 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EXTENDS FROM LA HISPANIOLA INTO
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. MID LEVEL RIDGE IS BUILDING FROM THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. AT LOWER
LEVELS...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE FCST
PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE
FCST AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT...AS TRADE WIND SHOWERS BRUSHED
THE ISLANDS FROM TIME TO TIME. HOWEVER...RAINFALL WAS NOT
SIGNIFICANT OVER LAND AREAS. HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS WERE
OBSERVED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO UPPER LOW OVER THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. AS LOW MEANDERS ALOFT...EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS TO
CONTINUE THRU THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL
PROMOTE STRONG CAP INVERSION...AND FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL THRU AT LEAST MONDAY...WITH PASSING TRADE WIND SHOWERS AND
LIMITED AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE ISLANDS. MAINLY SHOWERS
FORMING FROM STREAMERS OFF THE ISLANDS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS...IF ANY...DEVELOPING
OVER THE MTN RANGES AND WESTERN PR EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDS FCST ACROSS ALL TERMINALS DURG THE
NEXT 24 HOURS WITH QUICK PASSING TRADE WIND SHRA/-SHRA TIL AT
LEAST 05/12Z. SFC WNDS LGT/VRB TIL 05/14Z...BECMG ESE AT 10 T0
15KTS WITH LOCALIZED GUSTS AFT 05/14. NO OTHER SIG WX IMPACTS
ATTM.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 4-7 FEET...WITH LOWEST
SEAS ACROSS WESTERN PR. THIS IS DUE TO WIND GENERATED WAVES AS
FRESH TRADE WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE WATERS. EAST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS SHOULD IMPROVE
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 76 87 75 / 30 20 10 40
STT 87 76 86 77 / 20 20 20 50

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Dec 6, 2015 4:47:08 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Dec 6, 2015 4:47:08 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
558 AM AST SUN DEC 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT OVER THE ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE
UNTIL A TROF ALOFT MOVES IN FROM THE NW ATLANTIC BY THE END OF THE
WEEK. FRESH TRADES WILL PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. AS
SCATTERED TRADE WIND SHOWERS CONTINUED OVER THE WATERS WITH A FEW
OF THEM MOVING OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND SECTIONS OF THE
EASTERN HALF OF PR. RAINFALL RANGED FROM TRACES TO A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OVER LAND AREAS.

NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER AND FRESH TRADE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. THEREFORE...NOT MUCH
CHANGE IS EXPECTED ON RAINFALL ACTIVITY. TRADE WIND SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS DURING THE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING
HOURS...AND AS DRIER MID LEVEL AIR HOLDS THRU THE WEEK...EXPECT
ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN
PUERTO RICO IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BEST MOISTURE ADVECTION IS
EXPECTED ON MONDAY AND LATE IN THE WEEK. MODEL GUIDANCE STILL
SUGGESTS THAT THOSE DAYS PWAT WILL BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL VALUES.
BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE AS FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND DEEPER
MOISTURE LAYER MOVES OVER THE FCST AREA IN ASSOCIATION TO AN UPPER
TROUGH.

&&

..AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDS FCST ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS
DURG THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH BRIEF SHRA/-SHRA CAUSING AT LEAST VCSH
ACROSS THE TERMINALS AT DIFFERENT TIMES. SFC WNDS LGT/VRB TIL 06/14Z
FOR THE TERMINALS IN PR...EAST WINDS AT 10-15KT FOR USVI...TKPK
AND TNCM. WINDS INCREASING AFTER 06/14Z TO AROUND 15 KTS WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE IN EFFECT THROUGH AT
LEAST MONDAY AS FRESH TRADES CONTINUE TO CREATE CHOPPY SEAS.
MAINLY ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND PASSAGES. THEN...SMALL
CRAFTS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK AS WINDS
CONTINUE BETWEEN 15-20 KNOTS AND SEAS UP TO 6 FEET ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH COAST AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO AS
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DROP IN THE 40-50% AND GUSTY WINDS. SEE
LATEST FIRE DANGER STATEMENT(RFD) FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 75 87 75 / 20 50 50 10
STT 86 76 86 76 / 20 50 50 30

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Puerto Rico Weather

Post by cycloneye on Nov 22, 2015 4:13:12 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Nov 23, 2015 4:05:15 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Nov 24, 2015 4:01:38 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Nov 25, 2015 4:09:45 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Nov 26, 2015 4:06:00 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Nov 27, 2015 4:21:29 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Nov 28, 2015 4:14:24 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Nov 29, 2015 4:51:09 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Nov 30, 2015 4:29:40 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Dec 1, 2015 3:39:32 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Dec 2, 2015 4:21:09 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Dec 3, 2015 4:23:38 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Dec 4, 2015 4:12:56 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Dec 5, 2015 4:10:58 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Dec 6, 2015 4:47:08 GMT -6

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