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cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Dec 7, 2015 4:03:49 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Dec 7, 2015 4:03:49 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
554 AM AST MON DEC 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...BASE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUED TO SAG SOUTHWARDS
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. TROUGH WILL HOWEVER GRADUALLY
WEAKEN DURING THE REST OF THE DAY AND LIFT NORTHEASTWARD...AS A
MID TO UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD AND REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC...WILL SHIFT FARTHER NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
A WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP AND LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL LOOSENING OF THE
LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THUS A DECREASE IN THE PREVAILING
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN...WILL MAINTAIN THE MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREAS TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE REGION...RESULTING IN PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS AND PORTIONS
OF THE ISLANDS DURING THE MORNING. IN ADDITION...THE POSITION OF THE
UPPER TROUGH WAS AIDING IN ENHANCING SOME OF THE SHOWERS AS THEY QUICKLY
MOVED ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS THE
ISLANDS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS ISLANDS...
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO
WHERE LOCAL FORCING AND CONVERGENCE WILL BE STRONGER. HOWEVER...NO
WIDESPREAD OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS IS FORECAST AT
THIS TIME AS CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO RECENT DAYS.

FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AND DECREASING
MOISTURE ADVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED AS THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL LOOSEN...AND THE RIDGE WILL BUILD ALOFT AND REMAIN IN PLACE
ALONG WITH GOOD MID LEVEL DRYING. THIS OVERALL SCENARIO WILL AID
IN SUPPRESSING AND LIMITING CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION DURING
REST OF THE WORK WEEK. HOWEVER...LESS FREQUENT EARLY MORNING PASSING
SHOWERS CAN STILL BE EXPECTED EACH DAY...FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION....SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST NORTHWESTWARD
ACROSS PART OF THE LOCAL FLYING AREA RESULTING IN BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS TNCM...TKPK...TIST...TISX AND TJSJ UNTIL AT
LEAST 07/15Z. CEILING AT AROUND FL060-080 EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH 07/14Z. EAST SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AT 5-10 KTS WILL INCREASE
TO ABOUT 15 KTS AFTER 07/13Z. SCT-BKN CLOUD COVER EXPECTED THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD ACROSS PR AND THE USVI...IMPROVING AFTER 07/20Z.
DEVELOPING SHRA COULD AFFECT TJMZ...AND TJBQ AFTER 07/18Z WHICH
COULD CAUSE TEMPO MVFR CONDS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS CONTINUED TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS
MORNING. RECENT BUOY DATA AND OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST CHOPPY WIND DRIVEN
SEAS WITH OCCASIONAL SEAS OF UP TO 7 FEET IN SOME AREAS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES THEREFORE REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC AND
THE ANEGADA PASSAGE THIS MORNING. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION
ELSEWHERE. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST COASTAL WATERS FORECAST AND
MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE ISSUED BY THE NATIONS WEATHER SERVICE WFO SAN
JUAN PR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 75 87 75 / 40 10 20 10
STT 85 75 85 75 / 50 30 30 30

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Dec 8, 2015 3:56:00 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Dec 8, 2015 3:56:00 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
450 AM AST TUE DEC 8 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUED TO LIFT NORTHWARDS WHILE FILLING...AS
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD AND SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION FROM
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS TO THEN REMAIN
IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
FARTHER NORTHEAST AS A WEAKLY INDUCED TROUGH WILL DEVELOP AND LIFT
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS LOW LEVEL PATTERN WILL
RESULT IN A GRADUAL LOOSENING OF THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
THUS SUPPORT A DECREASE IN THE PREVAILING EASTERLY TRADE WINDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION....THE 08/00Z TJSJ UPPER AIR SOUNDING AS WELL AS THE
RECENT SATELLITE DERIVED PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT AND THE GPS
MET DATA PLOTS...ALL SUGGEST DECREASING LAYERED PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES...AS A DRIER AIR MASS CONTINUED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DERIVED WINDS...ALONG WITH RECENT
OBSERVATIONS ALL SUGGEST DECREASING LOW LEVEL ESE TRADE WINDS
WHICH WERE NOW RANGING 15-20 KNOTS BELOW 15 KFT...WITH ONLY SHALLOW
MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW 700 MILLIBARS. CONSEQUENTLY...ONLY EXPECT
A FEW QUICK PASSING TRADE WIND SHOWERS OVER THE REGIONAL WATERS
DURING THE REST OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SOME SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE INLAND AND PRODUCE ONLY THE NUISANCE SHOWERS OF
SHORT DURATION.

THE REST OF THE DAY...MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH
LESSER SHOWER ACTIVITY THAN RECENT DAYS. AFTERNOON SHOWER ACTIVITYSHOULD
BE FOCUSED MAINLY OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST SECTIONSOF
PUERTO RICO AS PREVAILING WIND FLOW SHOULD BECOME MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THE DAY. SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REST OF
THE ISLANDS INCLUDING THE U.S VIRGIN ISLANDS SHOULD DECREASE
DURING THE REST OF THE DAY AS DRIER AIR IS FORECAST TO FILTER IN
ACROSS THE REGION.

AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...A GRADUAL BUT STEADY IMPROVEMENT IN
WEATHER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS THE
MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BECOME DOMINATE AND PROMOTE MID
LEVEL DRYING AND STRENGTHEN OF THE TRADE WIND INVERSION. THIS
WILL AID IN SUPPRESSING AND LIMITING CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION
DURING REST OF THE WORK WEEK. HOWEVER...OVERNIGHT TO EARLY MORNING
PASSING SHOWERS CAN STILL BE EXPECTED EACH DAY...FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION WHICH WILL BE OF SHORT
DURATION.

&&

.AVIATION....BRIEF SHRA EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING W-NW ACROSS THE
LOCAL FLYING AREA...RESULTING MAINLY IN OCCASIONAL VCSH ACROSS
TIST...TISX AND TJSJ UNTIL AT LEAST 08/14Z. HOWEVER...MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
OVERNIGHT SURFACE WINDS REMAINS LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVER THE TERMINALS
IN PUERTO RICO AND EASTERLY AT 5-10 KT ACROSS THE USVI AND TKPK AND
TNCM TERMINALS. WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER 08/14Z TO 10- 15KTS WITH
SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE AS THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS
DIMINISHED ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS AND PASSAGES. SMALL
CRAFT SHOULD HOWEVER EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC
DUE TO SLIGHT WIND CHOP. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST COASTAL WATERS
FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WFO SAN JUAN PR
FOR ADDITIONAL INFO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 76 87 75 / 20 10 20 30
STT 84 75 85 74 / 30 30 30 30

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Dec 9, 2015 4:25:29 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Dec 9, 2015 4:25:29 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
532 AM AST WED DEC 9 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO FILL WHILE MOVE
EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. A MID TO HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL THEN BUILD AND SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SATURDAY AND THEN AMPLIFYING OVER
THE REGION SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS DETECTED OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE REGION. THE DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR
INDICATED ONLY BRIEF ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS BUT NO PRECIPITATION WAS DETECTED OVER LAND AREAS SO
FAR THIS MORNING. A RELATIVE QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THIS MORNING. THE
LIMITED MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO COMBINE WITH
LOCAL EFFECTS TO INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME CONVECTION ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON. THE SAME
WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL AT LEAST SATURDAY.

A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN AS THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC EARLY
DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS
CUBA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND THEN ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THIS HAPPENS...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS
THE REGION...BUT THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS...NORTH OF PUERTO RICO.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ISLANDS THRU PRD.
ISOLD PASSING SHRA OVR COASTAL WATERS EN ROUTE BTW PR AND NRN
LEEWARDS. MTN TOP PARTIALLY OBSCURED IN PASSING SHRA OVR ERN PR TIL
09/14Z. SFC WND LGT/VRB TIL 09/14Z BCMG FM E-SE 10-15 KTS DURG REST
OF PRD. L/LVL WNDS BLO F100 FM SE 5-15 KTS. FEW SHRA/PSBL ISOLD TSRA
OVR CTRL AND NW PR FM 09/18Z-09/22Z W/BRIEF MVFR VCTY TJBQ AND TJMZ.
NO OTHER SIG OPERATIONAL WX IMPACTS ATTM.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
ATLANTIC AND THE MONA PASSAGE DUE TO CHOPPY CONDITIONS. ELSEWHERE
SEAS BETWEEN 3 TO 5 FEET WITH WINDS UP TO 20 KTS. PLEASE REFER TO
THE LATEST COASTAL WATERS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE WFO SAN JUAN PR FOR ADDITIONAL INFO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 74 88 75 / 20 30 30 20
STT 84 75 85 75 / 20 30 30 30

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Dec 10, 2015 4:03:30 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Dec 10, 2015 4:03:30 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
453 AM AST THU DEC 10 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION WILL
REMAIN AS THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL AT
LEAST FRIDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL ERODE RAPIDLY BY SATURDAY AS A
MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EMERGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS
UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN AMPLIFY ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION SUNDAY
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF THE REGION UNTIL LATE NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS DETECTED OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE REGION. THE DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR
INDICATED ONLY BRIEF ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS BUT NO PRECIPITATION WAS DETECTED OVER LAND AREAS SO
FAR THIS MORNING. A RELATIVE QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...THE LIMITED MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO
COMBINE WITH LOCAL EFFECTS TO INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME
CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO THIS
AFTERNOON. ALMOST THE SAME WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL AT LEAST FRIDAY.

A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL
AT LEAST FRIDAY...BUT WILL BEGIN TO ERODE RAPIDLY SATURDAY AS A
MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EMERGE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
SEABOARD. THIS TROUGH IS THEN EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY OVER THE
BAHAMAS AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND THEN OVER
THE LOCAL ISLANDS SUNDAY AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
BY THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH THE BOUNDARY IS NOT
EXPECTED TO REACH THE AREA...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED TO THE SHEAR LINE
WILL GENERATE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ISLANDS THRU THE FORECAST
PERIOD. FEW L/LVL CU/SC CLD LYRS FL022...FL040 WITH -SHRA/SHRA EN
ROUTE BTW PR AND NRN LEEWARDS. SFC WND LGT/VRB TIL 10/14Z BCMG FM
ESE 5-15 KTS EXCEPT FOR SEA BREEZE VARIATION ALONG COASTAL AREAS FM
10/14Z-10/22Z. L/LVL WNDS BLO FL100 FM E-SE 10-15 KTS...THEN BACKING
AND DECR W/HT ABV UP TO FL300. NO SIG OPERATIONAL IMPACTS ATTM.

&&

.MARINE...A RELATIVELY QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL WITH SEAS BETWEEN 3 TO 5 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 15 KNOTS
ACROSS THE LOCAL REGIONAL WATERS. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST
COASTAL WATERS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
WFO SAN JUAN PR FOR ADDITIONAL INFO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 75 88 75 / 30 20 30 20
STT 85 76 85 76 / 30 30 30 20

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Dec 11, 2015 4:09:04 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Dec 11, 2015 4:09:04 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR

557 AM AST FRI DEC 11 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH PASSING OVER FLORIDA WILL

SPAWN A LOW OVER THE BAHAMA ISLANDS ON SATURDAY THAT WILL DIG

SOUTH AND TURN FLOW MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WHILE INDUCING A JET OVER

THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN. THE LOW WILL MOVE OVER HISPANIOLA ON

MONDAY AND REMAIN UNTIL WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING NORTHEAST

OVER THE BAHAMAS AND THE TROUGH OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WILL MOVE

FLOW TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.

AT MID LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE OVER FLORIDA WILL MOVE TO NEAR

JAMAICA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK IN THE GENERAL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE

CARIBBEAN. THE LOW WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE TO NEAR THE ABC ISLANDS AS

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST NORTH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A WEAK TROUGH NORTH OF HISPANIOLA WILL MOVE

WEST. ON SATURDAY HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED

STATES WILL PASS NORTH OF THE LOW AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

THIS WILL TIGHTEN PRESSURE GRADIENTS OVER THE AREA. THE HIGH WILL

CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN...THOUGH MODERATE TRADE WINDS

WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE FROM CANADA AND THE

NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC MID

WEEK NEXT WEEK TO CONTINUE EAST SOUTHEAST TRADE WINDS. PATCHES OF

MOISTURE WILL MIGRATE THROUGH THE AREA SOUTH OF COLD FRONTS WHICH

APPROACH THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE MIMIC PRODUCT SHOWS AN AREA OF MOISTURE ENTERING

THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY. SOME OF

THESE SHOWERS ARE ALSO MAKING IT INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR

FORECAST AREA. A FEW SHOWERS PASSED JUST SOUTH OF SAINT CROIX AND

MOVED INTO EASTERN PUERTO RICO...BUT DISSIPATED QUICKLY. THE

MOISTURE MOVING OUR WAY IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE SHOWERS IN

NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON WITH

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. SHOWERS INCREASE SATURDAY THROUGH

MONDAY AS MOISTURE FROM THE EAST MOVES IN. PRECIPITABLE WATER...RANGING

FROM 1.5 TO 1.8 INCHES...DOES NOT DIMINISH UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK.

ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT DIGS SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND WILL

CAUSE A WEAK JET TO FORM SOUTH OF THE AREA...ONLY MINOR DIVERGENCE

ALOFT IS GENERATED. HENCE WEAK DYNAMICS ARE IN PLAY FOR ALMOST THE

ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. SINCE MOISTURE IS GENERALLY WEAK FROM

850-500 MB...RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE MODEST...AT BEST...AS THE BANDS

OF DRY AND MOIST AIR PASS THROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ISLANDS THRU THE FORECAST

PERIOD...WITH BRIEF VCSH ESPECIALLY FOR TIST/TISX AND TJSJ. SHRA

DEVELOPING AFTER 11/16Z MAY CAUSE VCSH AT TJBQ/TJMZ AND TJSJ. ESE 5-

10 KTS OVERNIGHT...INCREASING TO 10-15 KTS WITH SEA BREEZE

VARIATIONS AFTER 11/14Z.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE AT 3 TO 5 FEET UNTIL

SATURDAY. THEN A NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY SWELL OF ABOUT 1 FOOT WILL

MOVE IN AND WITH WINDS A LITTLE STRONGER SEAS WILL APPROACH 6-7

FEET BY MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

SJU 88 76 87 76 / 20 10 20 30

STT 85 77 85 75 / 30 10 20 30

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Dec 12, 2015 4:12:43 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Dec 12, 2015 4:12:43 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
540 AM AST SAT DEC 12 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH JUST EAST OF FLORIDA WILL
PINCH OFF A LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL SETTLE IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE
BY SUNDAY AND NOT MOVE OUT UNTIL WEDNESDAY. IT CROSSES SOUTH OF
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS ON THURSDAY AS THE TROUGH
IT IS IN TAKES ON A DISTINCTIVE EAST-WEST ORIENTATION OVER THE
FORECAST AREA THEREAFTER.

AT MID LEVELS...A TROUGH OVER THE BAHAMA ISLANDS WILL FOLLOW THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA OVER THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND. PATCHES OF
MOISTURE DRIFT OUT OF THE EAST OVER THE AREA UNTIL AN OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST AND BRINGS IN A
POCKET OF DRY AIR THURSDAY THROUGH THE FOLLOWING MONDAY. ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ACCORDING TO THE GFS...APPROACHES THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHWEST EARLY IN THE CHRISTMAS WEEK.

AT LOWER LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE REMAINS IN THE SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN
THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC EAST OF
SOUTH CAROLINA SLIDES SOUTHEAST AND WEAKENS TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. AFTER A SERIES OF LOWS PASS THROUGH THE ATLANTIC MOST
OF NEXT WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE RE-BUILDS IN THE CENTRAL...AND THEN
EAST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC...TO HOLD TRADE WIND FLOW OVER THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MINIMAL SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVED THROUGH THE LOCAL
WATERS AND OCCASIONALLY ONSHORE IN PUERTO RICO TO BRING VERY
LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE ISLAND. MOISTURE IS
SLOWLY INCREASING...BUT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ABSENT SAVE FOR
THE CONTRIBUTION OF LOWER LEVELS DURING DAILY HEATING. ON THE
OTHER HAND...LOWER LEVELS...ALTHOUGH NOT ABUNDANTLY RICH WITH
MOISTURE...ARE RUNNING FROM 60 TO 80 PERCENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY THROUGH
THE NEXT 10 DAYS. AS DYNAMICS ARE LIMITED DUE TO WEAK LOW PRESSURE
AT UPPER LEVELS REMAINING FAIRLY DISTANT UNTIL MID WEEK NEXT
WEEK...WITH LITTLE CONVERGENCE OR FORCING AT ANY LEVEL...ONLY
WEAK SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED EXCEPT IN THE DOWN STREAM CORNER...IN
THIS CASE... THE NORTHWEST CORNER...DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND
THE WINDWARD SLOPES NIGHTS AND EARLY MORNINGS. EAST SOUTHEAST
FLOW IS ALSO BEING VERY PERSISTENT DUE TO THE HIGHER PRESSURE TO
THE NORTHEAST AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH ALL OF NEXT
WEEK. HIGHER CLOUDS WILL INCREASE MID WEEK NEXT WEEK WHEN THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. BUT THE GFS STILL WANTS TO
BRING DRIER AIR IN ABOVE THE MARINE LAYER...TOPPING OUT AT AROUND
7000 FEET...AFTER THURSDAY NIGHT AND THIS CAN AT LEAST BRING HOPES
FOR A DRIER WEEKEND NEXT WEEK. IN THE MEANTIME OVERALL CONDITIONS
OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PREVAIL WITH NEAR NORMAL OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD ACROSS
ALL TERMINALS. HOWEVER...SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED BTW 12/18Z-22Z ACROSS
THE NW QUADRANT OF PR. THIS COULD LEAD TO BRIEF MVFR CONDS AND MTN
TOP OBSCD...IMPACTING MAINLY THE FLYING AREA OF TJBQ/JMZ. SFC
WINDS FROM THE ESE AT 10 TO 15 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN/NEAR
TSRA/SHRA AND SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AFTER 12/14Z.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS IN THE ATLANTIC WILL INCREASE NOW THROUGH MONDAY
WITH THE ADDITION OF A NORTHERLY SWELL AND A MODEST INCREASE IN
WIND WAVES DURING THAT PERIOD. SEAS RETURN TO PRESENT LEVELS MID
WEEK NEXT WEEK AS GRADIENTS NEAR AND FAR RELAX SOMEWHAT. SEAS IN
THE CARIBBEAN INCREASE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH LITTLE INPUT FROM
SWELL EXCEPT IN THE PASSAGES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 76 86 76 / 20 20 10 30
STT 85 75 85 75 / 20 20 10 20

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Dec 13, 2015 4:54:28 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Dec 13, 2015 4:54:28 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
604 AM AST SUN DEC 13 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BUILDING OVER THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
ATLANTIC DURING THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION...A SERIES OF INDUCED SURFACE TROUGHS WILL COMBINE WITH
THE AVAILABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM TODAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
TO ENHANCE SHOWER ACTIVITY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SKIES REMAINED MOSTLY CLEAR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT TO PARTLY CLOUDY
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS OBSERVED MAINLY OVER THE
LOCAL WATERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THEN SOME OF THEM
BRIEFLY MOVED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS EARLY IN THE MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND A SURFACE DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THESE AFOREMENTIONED LOCATIONS
DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ENOUGH
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO ENHANCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO...AS WELL AS DOWNWIND FROM THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
AND IN THE VICINITY OF EL YUNQUE AND THE SAN JUAN METROPOLITAN
AREA. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET. PASSING
TRADE WIND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE EASTERN HALF OF
PUERTO RICO...THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE LOCAL WATERS SUNDAY
OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MONDAY.

FOR THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK...WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS AS A
MID TO UPPER TROUGH/LOW MOVES CLOSE TO THE LOCAL ISLANDS. EACH
DAY...PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INTERACT WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL FEATURE WHICH WILL ENHANCE THE FORMATION OF TRADE WIND
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING. ALSO...THE AVAILABLE
INSTABILITY WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF
PR EACH AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH...THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
INCREASES NEXT WEEK...NO WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AS
LITTLE FORCING IS AVAILABLE FOR THE NEXT 5-7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD ACROSS
ALL TERMINALS. HOWEVER...VCSH PSBL AT TNCM/TKPK/TIST/TISX/EASTERN PR
TERMINALS DUE TO TRADE WIND SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED
BETWEEN 13/18Z-22Z ACROSS THE NW QUADRANT OF PR. THIS COULD LEAD TO
BRIEF MVFR CONDS AND MTN OBSCURATIONS...IMPACTING MAINLY THE FLYING
AREA OF TJBQ/TJMZ. LOW LEVEL ESE WINDS AT 10-20 KT THRU AT LEAST
14/06Z.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS IN THE ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH
MONDAY AS A MODERATE NORTHERLY SWELL REACHES THE LOCAL ATLANTIC
WATERS. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND 6 FEET OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND MONA PASSAGES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 74 86 75 / 30 30 20 10
STT 85 75 85 75 / 20 30 30 30

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Dec 14, 2015 4:29:03 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Dec 14, 2015 4:29:03 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
531 AM AST MON DEC 14 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN END OF
CUBA WILL BECOME LESS WELL DEFINED TUESDAY AND THEN MOVE ACROSS
PUERTO RICO THURSDAY TO FORM A TROUGH ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
BY SUNDAY. ANOTHER TROUGH OVER FLORIDA ON SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO
PINCH INTO ANOTHER LOW IN MUCH THE SAME PLACE AND FORM A TROUGH
OVER THE LOCAL AREA LATER NEXT WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
DRIFT SOUTHEAST...AT FIRST...TO JUST NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY REBUILD AS IT MOVES INTO THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC. LOW PRESSURE BETWEEN JAMAICA AND CUBA NOW WILL
MOVE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY FRIDAY. PATCHY MOISTURE THIS
WEEK WILL GIVE WAY TO DRIER AIR OVER THE WEEKEND BEFORE BETTER
MOISTURE INVADES FROM THE SOUTHEAST MONDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FADES
UNDER THE PRESSURE OF A LOW RAPIDLY EMERGING OUT OF CANADA AND
DEEPENING OVER THE NORTHEAST CENTRAL ATLANTIC. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN DROP INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BY SATURDAY WHILE BUILDING. A
STRONGER HIGH WILL EMERGE FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND REINFORCE THE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF PUERTO
RICO. THIS WILL INCREASE THE TRADE WIND FLOW HERE CONSIDERABLY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MANY SMALL SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST
AROUND PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...BUT OWING TO THE
SHALLOW NATURE OF THE MOISTURE ARE ONLY ABLE TO DROP A FEW
HUNDREDTHS WHERE THEY CROSS LAND. DAYTIME HEATING WILL FAVOR
BETTER CONVECTION WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...AND
MAINLY IN THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF PUERTO RICO. HEAVY SHOWERS
COULD AGAIN DEVELOP THERE PRODUCING AREAS OF URBAN AND SMALL
STREAM FLOODING AND POSSIBLY SOME MINOR FLOODING ON THE CULEBRINAS
RIVER...WHICH HAS JUST DROPPED BELOW FLOOD STAGE.

CONDITIONS CHANGE ONLY SLOWLY DURING THE WEEK. SOME ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE AND INCREASING INSTABILITY WILL INDUCE BETTER SHOWERS ON
THURSDAY. A DECREASE IN MOISTURE ON FRIDAY AND A REVERSAL IN
STABILITY WILL YIELD LESS SHOWERS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT CURRENTLY THE GFS IS FORECASTING A SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE IN MOISTURE ON SUNDAY WITH A WETTER PERIOD EXPECTED
SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE FCST
PERIOD...WITH VCSH POSSIBLE AT TNCM/TIST/TISX/EASTERN PR TERMINALS
DUE TO TRADE WIND SHOWERS. SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN 14/18Z-22Z
ACROSS THE W SECTION OF PR. AS A RESULT EXPECT BRIEF MVFR CONDS AND
MTN TOP OBSCD...IMPACTING MAINLY THE FLYING AREA OF TJBQ/TJMZ. CALM
TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...FOLLOWED BY ESE WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KT
WITH HIGHER GUSTS AND SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AFT 14/13Z.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS AND SWELL FROM THE NORTH ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE
VERY SLOWLY THROUGH THURSDAY IN THE ATLANTIC. SEAS WILL DIMINISH
THROUGH LATE TUESDAY IN THE CARIBBEAN...BUT CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO ROUGHEN OVER THE WEEKEND WITH INCREASING WINDS IN
WATERS NORTH AND SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 76 87 75 / 30 20 30 30
STT 84 76 85 76 / 30 30 30 30

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Dec 15, 2015 4:47:30 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Dec 15, 2015 4:47:30 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
615 AM AST TUE DEC 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CUBA WILL
CROSS THROUGH PUERTO RICO ON THURSDAY...AND STALL UNTIL EARLY
SUNDAY BEFORE REACHING THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. A SECOND WEAK
TROUGH WILL CROSS THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A WEAK TROUGH MOVES OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUES
OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. PASSING POCKETS OF MOISTURE CONTINUE
AT MID LEVELS...BUT STRONG FEATURES ARE ABSENT.

AT LOWER LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES IN THE SOUTHWEST
CARIBBEAN. HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS TO THE NORTHEAST UNTIL
STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FROM CANADA TO THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A SECOND HIGH EMERGES FROM THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES ON SUNDAY AND BY TUESDAY DOMINATES THE
ENTIRE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THIS HOLDS AND THEN INTENSIFIES EASTERLY
TRADE WIND FLOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS WERE MORE PREVALENT EARLIER LAST NIGHT THAN
THEY WERE AROUND DAWN. ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS WERE SEEN ON THE EASTERN
SLOPES OF PUERTO RICO AND SAINT CROIX. DRIER AIR MOVED OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA AND BY 15/0930Z SHOWERS
WERE NOT SEEN ON NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR NORTHEAST OF A
LINE FROM SAINT CROIX TO SAN JUAN. SOUTHEAST FLOW IS FORECAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE A PATTERN OF SHOWERS OVER NORTHWEST
PUERTO RICO. WITH LESS MOISTURE IN THE AREA...HOWEVER...AND SOME
HIGH CLOUDS TO LIMIT HEATING...FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. THE BAND
OF DRIER AIR HANGING OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE FORECAST
AREA WILL FADE AS IT MOVE OVER EASTERN PUERTO RICO WEDNESDAY AND
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A BAND OF MOISTURE ON THURSDAY THAT WILL
INCREASE RAIN CHANCES...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING ON THE
NORTHEASTERN AND EASTERN COAST. THE DRIEST AIR OF THE WEEK MOVES
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...ACCORDING TO THE GFS AND PATCHES OF
MOISTURE FOLLOW IN A MOISTENING TREND THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK THAT SHOULD BRING BETTER SHOWERS. NEVERTHELESS THE
MAINLY EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW THAT PREVAILS UNTIL MID WEEK NEXT WEEK
WILL KEEP LOWER THE POPS ALONG THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN
COASTS OF PUERTO RICO WHERE SAN JUAN IS LOCATED AND CONTINUE THE
TREND TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL IN WESTERN AND ESPECIALLY
NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO. THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS WILL EXPERIENCE
MAINLY BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS DURING THE PERIOD.

IN THE LAST SEVERAL WEEKS THE GFS HAS PERFORMED FAIRLY WELL
THROUGH THE FIRST 3 TO 4 DAYS. PERFORMANCE AFTERWARD WAS SOMEWHAT
SKETCHY AS HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERNS AROSE AND BROUGHT FEATURES
THROUGH THAT DID NOT VERIFY. THESE PATTERN ARE NOT APPEARING NOW
AND ONLY CLOUD BANDS PASS THROUGH THAT ARE REMINISCENT OF OLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. THE MODEL NOW
SHOWS MOST OF THE SHOWERS MOVING IN FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AS
AIR PICKS UP MOISTURE AND HEAT FROM THE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC AND
AVOIDS BRINGING IN THE DRIER AND CLEARER AIR OUT OF THE NORTH. THE
PATCHES OF SHOWERS THAT IT FORECASTS ARE CHARACTERISTIC OF THIS
PATTERN...BUT THEIR TIMING IS QUITE UNRELIABLE AND THEREFORE THE
FORECAST REFLECTS ONLY THE GENERAL TREND.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES WITH VCSH POSSIBLE
AT THE LEEWARD AND USVI TERMINALS AS WELL AS TJSJ EARLY IN THE
MORNING. SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA EXPECTED BETWEEN 15/18Z-22Z ACROSS
THE W PR...AND MAY RESULT IN BRIEF MVFR CONDS AT TJBQ/TJMZ. CALM TO
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS INCREASING AT 10 TO 15 KT FROM THE
ESE WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AFT 15/12Z.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS IN THE ATLANTIC ARE SUBSIDING AND NORTHERLY SWELL
DIMINISHES. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. THEN SWELL
FROM LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC WILL BEGIN TO
ARRIVE...PEAKING ON SUNDAY. SEAS WILL LIKELY APPROACH 7 FEET IN
THE ATLANTIC AND PASSAGES THEN. CARIBBEAN SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW 7
FEET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 75 87 75 / 20 30 20 40
STT 85 76 84 75 / 20 30 20 50

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Dec 16, 2015 4:16:36 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Dec 16, 2015 4:16:36 GMT -6

FXCA62 TJSJ 160928
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
528 AM AST WED DEC 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL SLOWLY
ERODE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTHWEST
ATLANTIC. THIS SCENARIO WILL LOOSEN THE LOCAL SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RESULTING IN DECREASING EASTERLY TRADE WINDS AT LEAST
UNTIL THURSDAY. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE REINFORCED ONCE AGAIN BY
FRIDAY AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS PATTERN OF
MIGRATORY HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE
EASTWARDS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ONLY LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVER THE
CARIBBEAN WATERS WITH SOME AFFECTING THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. FOR TODAY...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES
DOMINATING THE LOCAL REGION. ONLY LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE LOCAL ISLANDS FROM TIME TO
TIME. FOR THIS AFTERNOON...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR SECTION OF PUERTO RICO. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS CANT BE RULED OUT.

FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...ONLY PATCHES OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA.
HOWEVER...NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. LOCAL
AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE...WHICH PROMISE TO MAINTAIN STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING
AREA WITH ONLY VCSH POSSIBLE AT THE USVI TERMINAL AND TJPS EARLY IN
THE MORNING. SHRA AND A COUPLE OF TSRA ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 16/18Z-
22Z ACROSS WESTERN PR...AND MAY RESULT IN BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AT
TJBQ/TJMZ. LATEST TJSJ SOUNDING INDICATED A SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW UP
TO 20 KNOTS FROM THE SURFACE TO AROUND 15K FEET...BECOMING WESTERLY
AND STRONGER ALOFT.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 6 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC
WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 75 85 74 / 20 40 40 20
STT 84 75 84 74 / 20 40 40 20

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Dec 17, 2015 4:23:55 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Dec 17, 2015 4:23:55 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
529 AM AST THU DEC 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN AN EASTERLY TRADE
WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PATCHES OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL AFFECT THE REGION FROM TIME TO TIME. TUTT LOW
CONTINUED TO MEANDER ACROSS HISPANIOLA TODAY...BUT WILL SLOWLY
WEAKEN AND LIFT EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PASSING SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS NORTH OF PUERTO RICO WITH THUNDERSTORMS OBSERVED OVER THE
MONA PASSAGE. THIS ACTIVITY OVER THE MONA PASSAGE IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A TUTT LOW WHICH CONTINUED TO MEANDER ACROSS HISPANIOLA.
HOWEVER...IT WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AND LIFT EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN. AT THE SURFACE...PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW WILL AFFECT THE LOCAL
REGION FROM TIME TO TIME THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. NO CHANGES IN THIS WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED AT LEAST
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS. HOWEVER...VCSH POSSIBLE ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS THRU EARLY
IN THE MORNING...THEN SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 18Z-22Z ACROSS
WESTERN PR...AND MAY RESULT IN BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE FLYING AREA OF TJBQ/TJMZ. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE
FROM THE EAST AT 10-20 KTS WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AFTER
14Z...WINDS TURNING SSW-W ABV FL200 AND INCREASING W/HEIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE REGIONAL WATERS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A NORTHERLY SWELL
IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE AND SPREAD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND
LOCAL PASSAGES OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND
WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS EXPECTED. CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION
ACROSS MOST OF LOCAL WATERS DUE TO WINDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 75 87 75 / 20 30 30 20
STT 85 75 85 76 / 20 30 30 20

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Dec 18, 2015 4:18:45 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Dec 18, 2015 4:18:45 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR

543 AM AST FRI DEC 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN AN EASTERLY TRADE

WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PATCHES OF LOW

LEVEL MOISTURE WILL AFFECT THE REGION FROM TIME TO TIME. TUTT WILL

DISSIPATED SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PASSING SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED OVER THE COASTAL

WATERS NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. SOME OF

THESE SHOWERS MOVED ACROSS THE U.S VIRGIN ISLANDS BUT RAINFALL

ACCUMULATIONS WERE NOT SIGNIFICANT. THE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED

TO DISSIPATED ON SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS

THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...ONLY

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN

PUERTO RICO OVERNIGHT AND EARLY IN THE MORNING WITH SOME

CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO IN THE

AFTERNOON. HOWEVER ACTIVITY WILL BE OF SHORT DURATIONS AND IN

MOSTLY ISOLATED AREAS LATER IN THE AFTERNOONS.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL

TERMINALS. HOWEVER...VCSH EXPECTED ACROSS TNCM/TKPK AND THE USVI

TERMINALS. THEN SHRA EXPECTED BETWEEN 18Z-22Z ACROSS WESTERN

PR...AND MAY RESULT IN BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE FLYING

AREA OF TJBQ/TJMZ. SFC WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE EAST AT 10-15

K`S WITH HIGHER GUSTS AFTER 14Z.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 6 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED

TODAY. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST LOCAL

WATERS. MARINE CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE DURING THE WEEKEND AS

A NORTHEAST SWELL INVADE THE LOCAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

SJU 87 74 86 75 / 30 20 20 20

STT 86 76 85 75 / 30 30 30 20

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Dec 19, 2015 4:40:47 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Dec 19, 2015 4:40:47 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
627 AM AST SAT DEC 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE A MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY WIND FLOW
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY AND SUNDAY...THEN ANOTHER SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON
MONDAY...TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND CAUSING SLIGHTLY
WINDIER CONDITIONS. UPPER LOW TO THE NORTH OF HISPANIOLA WILL
DISSIPATE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG
ACROSS WESTERN HISPANIOLA EARLY NEXT WEEK. BRIEF SHOWERS EXPECTED
TODAY AND SUNDAY ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA AS MOISTURE INCREASES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED BRIEF SHOWERS AFFECTED THE LOCAL
WATERS...THE USVI AND SMALL PORTIONS OF EASTERN PR OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY IN THE MORNING. THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE HAS BEEN INCREASING
GRADUALLY AND IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ABOVE THE AVERAGE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. BRIEF SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY TODAY
UNDER VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES. A SIMILAR PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR
SUNDAY. DRIER AIR IS MOVING IN ON MONDAY AND INTO THE EARLY PART
OF THE UPCOMING WORKWEEK...ALSO THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
SLIGHTLY STRONGER AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED BRIEF SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE LATE NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL INCREASE
ONCE AGAIN THE CHANCES OF SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE LOCAL
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL
TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 19/22Z. HOWEVER...INCREASING CLOUDINESS
WITH SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TERMINALS FROM 19/16Z THROUGH
AT LEAST 20/00Z. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED IN
FAST MOVING SHOWERS MAINLY OVER TIST...TISX...TJSJ. SOME MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON OVER TJMZ AND TJBQ. LOW LEVEL
WINDS WILL BE MAINLY EAST SOUTHEAST AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL BE CHOPPY FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE
MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY WIND COMBINES WITH THE NORTHERLY SWELL
THAT IS EXPECTED TO INVADE THE LOCAL WATERS TODAY. SMALL CRAFT
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FOR SEAS UP TO 6 FEET TODAY ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL GO INTO EFFECT STARTING
THIS EVENING FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL WATERS AS SEAS BUILD TO 7
FEET TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 75 85 75 / 40 20 20 40
STT 85 75 85 77 / 40 30 30 20

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Dec 20, 2015 4:28:43 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Dec 20, 2015 4:28:43 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
522 AM AST SUN DEC 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN ACROSS PUERTO RICO IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATES TODAY.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC TODAY AND THEN ACROSS BAHAMAS...EASTERN CUBA
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT EASTWARD AND WILL BE
REPLACED BY ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD WHILE DISSIPATES TODAY.
DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR INDICATED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TRADE WIND
SHOWERS MOVING RAPIDLY WEST NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS...VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND ACROSS THE EASTERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. DUE TO THE RAPID MOVEMENT OF
THE SHOWERS...THE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS WERE GENERALLY
MINIMAL. FRAGMENTED PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE
TRADES AND ENHANCED BY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING TO RESULT IN BRIEF PASSING
TRADE SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME MAINLY ACROSS THE WINDWARD
SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS AND ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...SOME LIMITED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
AMPLIFY ACROSS CUBA AND THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY MONDAY AND THEN
ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO BY MID WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP A
SHOWERY PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.
HOWEVER...NOT SIGNIFICANT OR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STRONG THROUGH
THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...TRADE WIND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE VCSH AT
MOS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS/USVI/EASTERN PR TERMINALS THRU THIS
MORNING. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE EAST AT 10 TO 20
KNOTS. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS SHOULD BE EXPECTED OVER EASTERN
PUERTO RICO...HIGHER GUSTS WILL LIKELY BE ENCOUNTERED...SPCLY NEAR
SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF
THE LOCAL WATERS DUE TO SEAS UP TO 7 FT WITH OCCASIONAL SEAS UP
TO 9 FT AND WINDS AROUND 20 KT. HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT LEAST UNTIL THE FIRST PART OF THE UPCOMING
WORK WEEK. REFER TO LOCAL MARINE PRODUCTS FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ABOUT THE CURRENT HAZARDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 75 86 76 / 30 40 40 10
STT 85 76 85 76 / 40 20 20 20

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Dec 21, 2015 4:15:38 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Dec 21, 2015 4:15:38 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
556 AM AST MON DEC 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...ALTHOUGH TROFINESS ALOFT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
MIDWEEK...A LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN WILL DOMINATE THE
LOCAL AREA. RIDGE PATTERN WILL HOLD MUCH OF THIS WEEK. FRESH
TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WERE OBSERVED ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.
BRIEF SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE USVI AND EASTERN PUERTO
RICO WITH MINIMAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS SO FAR. WINDS WERE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE...AND THE OVERNIGHT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.

ALTHOUGH TROFINESS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MIDWEEK...ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION AS A LOW
TO MID LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN HOLDS ACROSS THE AREA. FRESH TO LOCALLY
STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL MUCH OF THIS WEEK WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL. THEREFORE...UNDER A RIDGE
PATTERN...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER...
TRADE WIND SHOWERS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA A EACH DAY
WITH LIMITED AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS WEST PUERTO RICO.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FCST
PERIOD. -SHRA FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS THROUGH THE USVI/EASTERN PR
TERMINALS WILL CREATE PERIODS OF VCSH THRU 21/13Z. SHRA POSSIBLE TO
AFFECT TJMZ BETWEEN 21/18Z AND 21/22Z. SFC WINDS INCREASING AFTER
21/14Z FROM THE EAST AT UP TO 15-20 KTS...LIGHTER AT TJPS AND
TJMZ.

&&

.MARINE...A NORTHERLY SWELL AND FRESH EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO RESULT IN HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS
TODAY. SEAS 5 TO 7 FEET WITH OCCASIONAL SEAS UP TO 9 FEET. NORTHEAST
SWELL 4 TO 7 FEET. EASTERLY WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS. THEREFORE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF LOCAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 75 86 74 / 30 20 30 20
STT 86 76 86 76 / 20 20 30 20

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tcane: This sure looks like it dies quickly. maybe falling apart before metro New Orleans? Just looking at the lat dozen posts and images here. Sept 10, 2024 11:26:27 GMT -6

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Puerto Rico Weather

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