January 27 - 29, 2014 Winter Storm Discussion

I'd argue that there may be more moisture on this run than the last two though

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NEW ORLEANS:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
432 PM CST SAT JAN 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES HAVE
CLEARED AND THE REMNANTS OF THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION FROM
YESTERDAY ARE ONLY A MEMORY...AND NOT NECESSARILY A POSITIVE ONE.
TEMPERATURES REBOUNDED INTO THE 50S TODAY...AND DEW POINTS ARE
MAINLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS RAPIDLY EASTWARD TONIGHT AND SUNDAY TO BE
CENTERED ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST BY SUNDAY EVENING. SOME
POTENTIAL FOR FOG OVERNIGHT...DRYING NEAR THE SURFACE TODAY SHOULD
HAVE EASED THE THREAT SOMEWHAT. A PARTLY SUNNY DAY SUNDAY AS COLD
FRONT ADVANCES TOWARD AREA...WITH MOST AREAS WARMING INTO THE 60S.

BEYOND SUNDAY EVENING...THE FORECAST...AND THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE
BOTH GO DOWNHILL. FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS DURING THE DAY
MONDAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. EXPECT SOME SHOWERS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH RAIN
AMOUNTS RATHER LIGHT. QUESTION THEN BECOMES THE SPEED AND STRENGTH
OF THE COLD AIR IMPACT. ECMWF AND GFS PUSH THE COLDER AIR
SOUTHEASTWARD MORE AGGRESSIVELY MONDAY NIGHT THAN DOES THE 12Z
NAM. HOW COLD AND HOW FAR SOUTHEAST THE COLD AIR GETS HAS A
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY. DURING
MONDAY NIGHT...PRECIPITATION WOULD BE RAIN DURING THE EVENING WITH
POTENTIAL FOR A MIX OR CHANGE TO SLEET FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE RATHER LIGHT...BUT AS SEEN
YESTERDAY...IT DOESNT TAKE A LOT TO CAUSE PROBLEMS. AS A JET
IMPULSE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT TUESDAY...PRECIPITATION WILL BREAK
OUT ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT. THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF
OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS INDICATE THAT THE COLD AIR WOULD BE
ENTRENCHED ENOUGH WHERE LIGHT PRECIPITATION WOULD FALL AS SLEET OR
SNOW. THE 12Z NAM DOES NOT DIG THE COLD AIR AS DEEPLY...AND SHOWS
QUITE A WARM NOSE OF AIR BETWEEN 800 AND 900 MB THROUGH MUCH OF
TUESDAY. THAT MODEL ALSO PAINTS A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS ABOUT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA ON TUESDAY
AND MUCH OF THAT COULD FALL AS FREEZING RAIN...LOOKING AT NAM
SOUNDINGS. ALL THREE SOLUTIONS HAVE AT LEAST SOME SUPPORT FROM
VARIOUS MEMBERS OF 00Z AND 12Z ENSEMBLES. HOPEFULLY...LATER RUNS
WILL COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST. LATER FORECASTS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THINKING REGARDING
PRECIPITATION TYPES AND AMOUNTS. SO STAY TUNED.

IN ANY CASE...IT WILL BE COLD TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES 20-25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. 35

&&

.LONG TERM...

ON THE BRIGHTER SIDE...IT APPEARS THAT THE COLD AIR EARLY IN THE
WEEK MAY BE THE LAST IN THE CURRENT SERIES OF COLD AIR PLUNGES.
BOTH MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DIG A TROF ALONG THE WEST COAST FOR THE
MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK...WHICH FORCES RIDGING DOWNSTREAM OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND EASTERN STATES. ONSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPS...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY THURSDAY NIGHT OR
FRIDAY...WITH AT LEAST SMALL CHANCES OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THE ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER ON THE MOISTURE
RETURN AND WARMING...BUT CARRIES THE SAME GENERAL MESSAGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY MUCH BELOW NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE MODERATING. BY THE WEEKEND...HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO BE IN THE 60S...AND POSSIBLY THE 70S.
AND THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE TEMPERATURES WE CURRENTLY
HAVE IN THE FORECAST MAY NOT BE WARM ENOUGH. THIS PATTERN
CHANGE...UNFORTUNATELY...APPEARS TO BE TRANSITORY AS THE GFS
BEYOND 240 HOURS DOES REBUILD THE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
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Thibodaux should still get in on this. And I would only have to drive 30 min anyway

Loving it

HOUSTON:


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
508 PM CST SAT JAN 25 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR FOR THE NEXT 24+ HOURS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MAYBE LBX WHERE
THERE MIGHT BE SOME TYPICAL PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG ONCE WINDS
DIMINISH. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT BRINGING SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL CIGS. COULD BE SOME
RETURNS ON RADAR AS WELL...BUT DRY SUB CLOUD LAYER WILL KEEP
ANYTHING FROM REACHING THE GROUND. CLEARING SKIES SUN AFTN. 47

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 PM CST SAT JAN 25 2014/
WHAT A DIFFERENCE A DAY MAKES. WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS AND PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM TO NEAR 60 DEGREES
THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES LIKELY NEARING 70 ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.

AFTER OUR BRIEF RESPITE OLD MAN WINTER WILL RETURN ON MONDAY AS A
STRONG FRONT BRINGS ARCTIC AIR BACK TO THE REGION. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN THE MORNING AS THE FRONT SHOULD
BE MOVING THROUGH COLLEGE STATION BY DAYBREAK AND INTO THE HOUSTON
METRO AREA BY LUNCHTIME. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY MORNING WILL FALL
BELOW FREEZING ACROSS ALL BUT THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE WITH
NORTHERN AREAS FALLING INTO THE MID 20S. OF GREATER CONCERN IS THE
APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL LEAD TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME FROZEN PRECIPITATION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH THE APPROACH OF THIS
FEATURE ALLOWING SURFACE AND NEAR SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO COOL
FURTHER. WHILE THERE REMAINS GREAT UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS EVENT
THERE IS ENOUGH MODEL CONSENSUS TO INTRODUCE A MENTION OF FROZEN
PRECIPITATION INTO THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE COLDER
THAN LAST WEEK WHICH WOULD SHIFT THE THREAT MORE TOWARD SLEET AND
SNOW...RATHER THAN FREEZING RAIN. GREATEST IMPACTS WILL LIKELY BE
CONFINED TO AN AREA ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM COLLEGE STATION
TO HOUSTON TO WINNIE. FURTHER NORTH...MOISTURE WILL BE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED AND SNOW FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE. ONE CONCERN WITH THIS
SOLUTION WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF INTERACTION WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH IS FORECAST TO HANG BACK OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO...WHICH COULD CHANGE THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO
WORK WITH. AGAIN...EXPECT TO SEE CHANGES IN THE FORECAST AS WE GET
CLOSER BUT ANOTHER BRUSH WITH WINTER WEATHER LOOKS POSSIBLE THIS
WEEK.

PRECIPITATION WILL EXIT THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
ANOTHER QUICK WARMUP EXPECTED MUCH AS WE ARE SEEING NOW. ANOTHER
FRONT WILL ARRIVE NEXT WEEKEND BRINGING RAIN CHANCES FOR MUCH OF
THE REGION BUT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT NEARLY BE AS COLD.