Post by beausoleil on Jan 25, 2014 12:30:54 GMT -6
Joe Bastardi has his video from today up on the free site of Weatherbell. He gives his thoughts on February and why. You usually have to pay for this folks. Interesting comparisons to 1917-1918 and why he thinks we could end up with a warmer than normal February. It may start quite cold though.
Post by Dat Fireman on Jan 25, 2014 13:46:20 GMT -6
So given what the models are saying at this point, is it looking more like the SS would get more rain, ice, snow, or nothing at all? What kind of forecast temps are we expecting on the SS? Thanks in advance.
SKYSUMMIT President | Director of OperationsAdministrator
The raw numbers from the 12z GFS was low to mid 20's for the north shore, upper 20's to around 30 for the south shore. Nothing we haven't seen before. Still a lot of questions in regards to next week, but yea....the latest is that globals have backed off some on both precipitation and temperatures. The same they've done for the most recent storm.
Hammond, LA NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08 CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23
The 18z NAM continues its ice storm for southeast LA with a change over to all snow from a line of Baton Rouge to Morgan City and west. The end of the run is around midnight Tuesday so it may continue the change over to snow for areas east if it's extrapolated out through Wednesday morning.
The NAM has been pretty persistent with this, and if it's the winner winner chicken dinner, Ice Storm Warnings and/or Winter Storm Warnings will need to be issued on Monday.
Last Edit: Jan 25, 2014 15:26:23 GMT -6 by SKYSUMMIT
Hammond, LA NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08 CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 329 PM CST SAT JAN 25 2014
...POTENTIAL FOR A WINTER WEATHER EVENT EXISTS BEGINNING LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...
.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT]...LARGE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD...WITH A STRONG ZONAL FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF REGION ON SUNDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST THROUGH SUNDAY AS WELL. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT...BUT REGIONAL SATELLITE IS SHOWING A VEIL OF CIRRUS CLOUDS OVER TEXAS THAT MODELS BRING EAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE CIRRUS DECK IS A MIX OF SEMI-TRANSPARENT TO OPAQUE CLOUDS...SO EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES BY LATE TONIGHT...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ON SUNDAY. THE DRY PERIOD WILL LAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS DEVELOPING TONIGHT BECOMING LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY.
WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE MAV AND MET TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHT...SO EXPECT LOWS TO RANGE FROM 27 TO 32 MOST INLAND AREAS...WITH THE MID TO UPPER 30S ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM 58 TO 63 DEGREES. /22
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL HAVE ITS WESTERN NOSE EXTENDING ACROSS THE GULF SUNDAY NIGHT. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST COMPONENT OF FLOW OFF THE GULF WILL ALLOW DEWPOINTS TO RECOVER OVERNIGHT. CONSIDERING THE COOLER WATER TEMPERATURES OVER BAYS AND SOUNDS AND A RECOVERY IN SURFACE BASED MOISTURE...A MENTION OF DEVELOPING PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG IS PRUDENT AS NIGHTTIME HUMIDITY VALUES MOVE ABOVE 90%. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN REMAINS IN THE FORECAST. CONSIDERING MORE CLOUD COVER...WILL FAVOR THE HIGHER END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE FOR OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WITH NUMBERS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S INLAND TO LOWER 50S COAST. /10
.LONG TERM [MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY]...A STRONG COLD FRONT...THE LEADING EDGE OF NEXT ARCTIC OUTBREAK...WILL BE SURGING INTO THE DEEP SOUTH ON MONDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH...OUT OVER THE GULF BY AFTERNOON.
THINGS BEGIN TO GET MORE INTERESTING BEGINNING LATE MONDAY NIGHT. IN THE WAKE OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...THE AIRMASS IS FORECAST TO BECOME PROGRESSIVELY COLDER. AT THE SAME TIME...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN ADEQUATE ENOUGH TO PRESENT SOME POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS AS THE STAGE LOOKS TO BE SETTING UP FOR A RISK OF WINTER WEATHER PRECIPITATION. ATMOSPHERIC LIFT WILL BE MAINTAINED/ENHANCED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE FAVORED RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF A STRONG 120 TO 140 KNOT HIGH LEVEL JET STREAK WITHIN THE BASE OF A LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. AT SAME TIME...AND WITHIN THE PRESENCE OF COLD AIR ADVECTION PROCESSES...AN ASSESSMENT OF FORECAST SOUNDINGS OF TEMPERATURE/MOISTURE SUPPORTS MENTIONING A MIXTURE OF WINTRY WEATHER PRECIPITATION (LIGHT SNOW...LIGHT SLEET...AND/OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN) LATE MONDAY NIGHT...ON INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE CONTINUES TO BE UNCERTAINTY AMONGST VARIOUS MODELS ON WHAT PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE EVOLVES...ITS ORIENTATION IN SPACE/TIME AND ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL. STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO ASSESS THESE ISSUES AS EVENT DRAWS CLOSER IN TIME.
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...SOME OF THE FORECAST SOUNDING GUIDANCE INDICATES THE PRESENCE OF A SHALLOW LAYER OF DRY AIR IN THE LOWEST 1500-2000 FEET OFF THE SURFACE AND IF ENOUGH PRECIPITATION FALLS AND EVAPORATIVELY COOLS THE LAYER...HIGHS MAY STAY IN THE 30S MOST AREAS. CONSIDERING THIS SCENARIO...HAVE MADE A DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT ON TUESDAY'S HIGHS. WIND CHILL VALUES DROP DOWN INTO THE MID TEENS/LOWER 20S EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...LOOKING TO HOLD IN THE 20S MOST AREAS THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TUESDAY...THEN PLUNGING BACK DOWN INTO THE TEENS FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES BEGIN MODERATING ONCE AGAIN...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. A GRADUAL INCREASE AND EASTWARD SHIFT IN SHOWER CHANCES IS FORECAST.
Hammond, LA NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08 CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23
SKYSUMMIT President | Director of OperationsAdministrator
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 351 PM CST SAT JAN 25 2014
.DISCUSSION... WHAT A DIFFERENCE A DAY MAKES. WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM TO NEAR 60 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY NEARING 70 ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
AFTER OUR BRIEF RESPITE OLD MAN WINTER WILL RETURN ON MONDAY AS A STRONG FRONT BRINGS ARCTIC AIR BACK TO THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN THE MORNING AS THE FRONT SHOULD BE MOVING THROUGH COLLEGE STATION BY DAYBREAK AND INTO THE HOUSTON METRO AREA BY LUNCHTIME. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY MORNING WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING ACROSS ALL BUT THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE WITH NORTHERN AREAS FALLING INTO THE MID 20S. OF GREATER CONCERN IS THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FROZEN PRECIPITATION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH THE APPROACH OF THIS FEATURE ALLOWING SURFACE AND NEAR SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO COOL FURTHER. WHILE THERE REMAINS GREAT UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS EVENT THERE IS ENOUGH MODEL CONSENSUS TO INTRODUCE A MENTION OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION INTO THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE COLDER THAN LAST WEEK WHICH WOULD SHIFT THE THREAT MORE TOWARD SLEET AND SNOW...RATHER THAN FREEZING RAIN. GREATEST IMPACTS WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO AN AREA ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM COLLEGE STATION TO HOUSTON TO WINNIE. FURTHER NORTH...MOISTURE WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED AND SNOW FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE. ONE CONCERN WITH THIS SOLUTION WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF INTERACTION WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH IS FORECAST TO HANG BACK OVER NORTHERN MEXICO...WHICH COULD CHANGE THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO WORK WITH. AGAIN...EXPECT TO SEE CHANGES IN THE FORECAST AS WE GET CLOSER BUT ANOTHER BRUSH WITH WINTER WEATHER LOOKS POSSIBLE THIS WEEK.
PRECIPITATION WILL EXIT THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER QUICK WARMUP EXPECTED MUCH AS WE ARE SEEING NOW. ANOTHER FRONT WILL ARRIVE NEXT WEEKEND BRINGING RAIN CHANCES FOR MUCH OF THE REGION BUT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT NEARLY BE AS COLD.
JACKSON:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS 352 PM CST SAT JAN 25 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...
LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW WILL TAKE HOLD OF THE REGION TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH OFF TO OUR SOUTH SHIFTS EAST. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST PART TO THE EVENING...AND COUPLED WITH CLEAR SKIES AND DRY AIR IN PLACE SHOULD SET UP IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. NOT LOOKING FOR LOWS TONIGHT TO GET A COLD AS LIGHT NIGHT THOUGH AS UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS BEGIN MOVING IN AFTER MIDNIGHT. BEST CHANCE TO GET INTO THE MID 20S WILL BE ACROSS ERN/NERN ZONES IN LINE WITH 12Z MAV GUIDANCE. DESPITE THE COLD OF LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON LOOKS TO BE VERY SEASONAL FOR LATE JAN WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S AREAWIDE.
THINGS WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE LATE SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON MORNING THOUGH AS YET ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION. IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY WINDIER IN WAKE OF THE FRONT...AND IT'S QUITE POSSIBLE WE'LL NEED A WIND ADVISORY FOR AT LEAST THE DELTA/PERHAPS AREAWIDE/ THROUGH MOST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. TEMPERATURES LATE MONDAY NIGHT WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE LOWER 40S/UPPER 30S IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT THANKS TO CLOUDS/SOUTHERLY WINDS IN PLACE. ONCE AGAIN HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MON ALONG THE HWY 82 CORRIDOR WILL BE TRICKY AS THE FRONT IS ON OUR DOORSTEP AROUND DAYBREAK. EXPECT A STEADY DROP IN TEMPS THROUGH THE DAY AS THE FRONT PASSES WITH NORTHERN ZONES FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S BY SUNDOWN. WIND CHILLS NORTH OF I-20 WILL EASILY BE IN THE UPPER TEENS BY MON AFTERNOON AS WELL. THE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE A BIT HEADED INTO MON NIGHT BUT WE'RE STILL LOOKING AT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 12-15 MPH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...LEADING TO BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS/ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-20 WHERE SINGLE DIGITS APPEAR LIKELY. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE NEEDED NORTH OF I-20 FOR MON NIGHT/EARLY TUE MORNING.
AS FOR THE WINTRY PRECIP POTENTIAL IN WAKE OF THE FRONT HEADED INTO TUE...THE 12Z NAM/09Z SREF WERE STILL BULLISH ON THE SNOW AND EVEN SOME FREEZING RAIN/SLEET POTENTIAL ALONG THE HWY 84 CORRIDOR...WITH THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF KEEPING THINGS DRY. THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION REGARDING THE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS VALID AND WILL APPEND BELOW. STAY TUNED. /BK/
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SET UP ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH TUE MORNING. WHILE THE GFS/ECMWF REMAIN BEARISH WITH PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL IN WAKE OF THE FRONT...A NUMBER OF MODELS (GEM/GEFS/SREF/NAM) INDICATE JUST ENOUGH BACKING OF THE MID LEVEL FLOW/ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL HELP TO BREAK OUT PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES LATE MON NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE. WITH CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION...THIS PRECIPITATION WOULD LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW...ALTHOUGH THE NAM SHOWS A PRONOUNCED WARM LAYER ALOFT THAT WOULD INCREASE THE ODDS FOR FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET ALONG AND SOUTH OF HWY 84. ALL GUIDANCE INDICATE THE COLUMN WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW TUESDAY...AND THE GEM AND SEVERAL GEFS/SREF MEMBERS ACTUALLY INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW INCHES OF SNOW. BUT GIVEN THAT THE BULK OF GUIDANCE IS ON THE DRY SIDE...WILL KEEP POPS LOW FOR NOW.
WILL NEED TO CLOSELY WATCH FOR MORE DIGGING OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AND GREATER ENERGY ROUNDING ITS BASE THAT COULD INCREASE LIFT OVER THE AREA. THE 06Z GFS INDICATES THAT HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER > 1 INCH WILL BE NEAR THE GULF COAST AND MASS FIELDS SUGGEST IT ONLY TAKE SLIGHT PERTURBATIONS TO MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE IN QPF AS WAS THE CASE IN THE PAST EVENT OVER LA/SRN MS.
OTHERWISE...MOST FOCUS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE COLD AS WIND CHILL READINGS COULD FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ONCE AGAIN ON TUESDAY NIGHT. IT LOOKS LIKE HARD FREEZE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE MET IN THE SAME AREA AS TEMPERATURES POTENTIALLY REMAIN BELOW FREEZING FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT...AND PERHAPS EVEN THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN A FEW LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE HWY 82 CORRIDOR. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY REACH THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS.
MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE ARCTIC AIR WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH AS RECENT RUNS OF THE GFS SUGGEST THE LOW-LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH WILL PULL OUT MUCH MORE QUICKLY WEDNESDAY LEADING TO NOT SO COLD CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HAVING SAID THAT...THE 00Z ECWMF ENSEMBLE MEAN AND GEFS ARE CONSIDERABLY SLOWER WITH WARM-UP. IN FACT...THE 00Z GFS WAS THE WARM OUTLIER OF ALL GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. SO HAD TO DO SOME MAJOR REVISIONS TO MOS GUIDANCE AS A RESULT BOTH TO CUT TEMPERATURES AND REDUCE POPS SOME GIVEN THE OVERDONE WARM ADVECTION.
THURSDAY AND BEYOND...THERE IS LITTLE DOUBT NOW THAT A MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE IS TAKING PLACE AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY AND DETAILS IN THIS TRANSITION AS WE GO FROM LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. MUCH MILDER AND WETTER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS/WRN ATLANTIC RIDGE BUILDS WHILE THE LONGWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS TO OUR WEST AND ALLOWS FOR STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW. IT IS TOO EARLY TO GO INTO MUCH DETAIL ON THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. /EC/
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Hammond, LA NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08 CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23