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DYLAN FEDERICO GCWX Supporter Meteorologist Posts - 17,499 Likes - 3,447 Social: - Facebook, Twitter	The Historic Flood of 2016: 8/8 to 8/19 Aug 5, 2016 0:29:57 GMT -6 via mobile Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by DYLAN FEDERICO on Aug 5, 2016 0:29:57 GMT -6 Moving WSW at the end on the 0z UKMET.
	Twitter: @dylanfedericowx Facebook: Meteorologist Dylan Federico WTVM Meteorologist

DYLAN FEDERICO GCWX Supporter Meteorologist Posts - 17,499 Likes - 3,447 Social: - Facebook, Twitter	The Historic Flood of 2016: 8/8 to 8/19 Aug 5, 2016 0:32:16 GMT -6 via mobile frb1951 likes this Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by DYLAN FEDERICO on Aug 5, 2016 0:32:16 GMT -6 The EURO keeps on trending east with the system too.
	Twitter: @dylanfedericowx Facebook: Meteorologist Dylan Federico WTVM Meteorologist

CajunWX GCWX Supporter Posts - 8,230 Likes - 2,651 Social: - Facebook, Twitter	The Historic Flood of 2016: 8/8 to 8/19 Aug 5, 2016 1:41:05 GMT -6 stormweary likes this Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by CajunWX on Aug 5, 2016 1:41:05 GMT -6 Interestingly the GFS has something too, but inland.

HarahanTim - Now in Covington!
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The Historic Flood of 2016: 8/8 to 8/19 Aug 5, 2016 3:23:04 GMT -6

Post by HarahanTim - Now in Covington! on Aug 5, 2016 3:23:04 GMT -6

Aug 5, 2016 0:12:03 GMT -6 DYLAN FEDERICO said:

Aug 4, 2016 23:55:36 GMT -6 Siker said:

I found the pressure data, it's near the bottom of this page:

meteora.ucsd.edu/weather/climate/western_atlantic.current

I can't copy and paste from if for some reason but the final point is 969mb / 72kt winds.

Wow! That would be nasty!

Here it is.

GCWX Director of Public Relations

cajungal
Category 5

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The Historic Flood of 2016: 8/8 to 8/19 Aug 5, 2016 6:02:59 GMT -6 via mobile

Post by cajungal on Aug 5, 2016 6:02:59 GMT -6

Aug 4, 2016 22:32:04 GMT -6 gulfbreeze said:

Aug 4, 2016 14:24:55 GMT -6 cajungal said:

Well at least all the rain will be well to our east unless it dramatically shifts west.

Cajungal, it is not expected to drift west, correct?

Not at this time as far as I know.

60 miles southwest of New Orleans) Thibodaux, La

99lsfm2 Board Member Moderator Posts - 6,796 Likes - 428	The Historic Flood of 2016: 8/8 to 8/19 Aug 5, 2016 7:08:13 GMT -6 c503wx likes this Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by 99lsfm2 on Aug 5, 2016 7:08:13 GMT -6 We have a lemon.
	GCWX Board Member NWS Trained Spotter - MOB

HarahanTim - Now in Covington!
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The Historic Flood of 2016: 8/8 to 8/19 Aug 5, 2016 8:04:51 GMT -6 frb1951 likes this

Post by HarahanTim - Now in Covington! on Aug 5, 2016 8:04:51 GMT -6

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI AUG 5 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Earl, located over the southern Bay of Campeche.

1. A trough of low pressure is expected to form over the northeastern
Gulf of Mexico late in the weekend or early next week. Some
subsequent development of this system is possible while it remains
nearly stationary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

Forecaster Avila

Last Edit: Aug 5, 2016 8:09:20 GMT -6 by HarahanTim - Now in Covington!

GCWX Director of Public Relations

Siker
Category 3

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The Historic Flood of 2016: 8/8 to 8/19 Aug 5, 2016 10:26:07 GMT -6

Post by Siker on Aug 5, 2016 10:26:07 GMT -6

New UKMET much weaker, further east:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 29.0N 83.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 07.08.2016 48 29.0N 83.9W 1008 32
0000UTC 08.08.2016 60 29.2N 83.4W 1004 34
1200UTC 08.08.2016 72 30.4N 83.0W 1006 31
0000UTC 09.08.2016 84 31.5N 83.6W 1006 27
1200UTC 09.08.2016 96 32.1N 84.2W 1009 23
0000UTC 10.08.2016 108 CEASED TRACKING

SKYSUMMIT President \| Director of Operations Administrator Posts - 59,616 Likes - 9,223 Social: - Facebook, Twitter	The Historic Flood of 2016: 8/8 to 8/19 Aug 5, 2016 11:11:40 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by SKYSUMMIT on Aug 5, 2016 11:11:40 GMT -6 Good ole Canadian fun:

SKYSUMMIT
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The Historic Flood of 2016: 8/8 to 8/19 Aug 5, 2016 11:54:32 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Aug 5, 2016 11:54:32 GMT -6

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI AUG 5 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Earl, located over the southern Bay of Campeche.

An area of cloudiness and thunderstorms associated with a trough of
low pressure is located over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. Some
slow development of this system is possible while it meanders
near the coast of the Florida panhandle during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

$$
Forecaster Avila

ndg GCWX Supporter Posts - 7,739 Likes - 3,229 Social: - Twitter	The Historic Flood of 2016: 8/8 to 8/19 Aug 5, 2016 13:54:17 GMT -6 DYLAN FEDERICO likes this Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by ndg on Aug 5, 2016 13:54:17 GMT -6 Satellite shows vorticity is elongated but getting better defined this afternoon over the Tallahassee/Apalachee Bay area. UL winds are not bad with developing divergence.

ndg
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The Historic Flood of 2016: 8/8 to 8/19 Aug 5, 2016 17:02:03 GMT -6 SKYSUMMIT and DYLAN FEDERICO like this

Post by ndg on Aug 5, 2016 17:02:03 GMT -6

I am watching the area I marked on the image below for possible circulation in the mid levels developing, looks fairly tight on satellite and radar.

weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=29&lon=-85&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1200&height=900&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=18&mapcolor=black

SKYSUMMIT President \| Director of Operations Administrator Posts - 59,616 Likes - 9,223 Social: - Facebook, Twitter	The Historic Flood of 2016: 8/8 to 8/19 Aug 5, 2016 17:08:18 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by SKYSUMMIT on Aug 5, 2016 17:08:18 GMT -6 Radar/Sat with 850mb winds:

Dutar76 GCWX Supporter Posts - 599 Likes - 256	The Historic Flood of 2016: 8/8 to 8/19 Aug 5, 2016 17:48:36 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by Dutar76 on Aug 5, 2016 17:48:36 GMT -6 Already...

SKYSUMMIT
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The Historic Flood of 2016: 8/8 to 8/19 Aug 5, 2016 18:01:13 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Aug 5, 2016 18:01:13 GMT -6

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI AUG 5 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Earl, located over the extreme southwestern Bay of Campeche.

An area of cloudiness and thunderstorms associated with a trough of
low pressure is located over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. Some
gradual development of this system is possible while it meanders
near the coasts of the eastern Florida panhandle and the northern
Florida peninsula during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

$$
Forecaster Stewart

The Historic Flood of 2016: 8/8 to 8/19

Post by DYLAN FEDERICO on Aug 5, 2016 0:29:57 GMT -6

Post by DYLAN FEDERICO on Aug 5, 2016 0:32:16 GMT -6

Post by CajunWX on Aug 5, 2016 1:41:05 GMT -6

Post by HarahanTim - Now in Covington! on Aug 5, 2016 3:23:04 GMT -6

Post by cajungal on Aug 5, 2016 6:02:59 GMT -6

Post by 99lsfm2 on Aug 5, 2016 7:08:13 GMT -6

Post by HarahanTim - Now in Covington! on Aug 5, 2016 8:04:51 GMT -6

Post by Siker on Aug 5, 2016 10:26:07 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Aug 5, 2016 11:11:40 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Aug 5, 2016 11:54:32 GMT -6

Post by ndg on Aug 5, 2016 13:54:17 GMT -6

Post by ndg on Aug 5, 2016 17:02:03 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Aug 5, 2016 17:08:18 GMT -6

Post by Dutar76 on Aug 5, 2016 17:48:36 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Aug 5, 2016 18:01:13 GMT -6

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