Franklin Discussion Thread (Caribbean-GOM)

18z GFS ENSEMBLE farther north at working cant post images sorry

Any model updates?

Still too much uncertainty, could just as easily hit Louisiana/Texas.

Bout time we get something else to watch!!

The only way this system could be a threat to the upper TX coast or LA if an unexpected trough digs across the central US and weakens the western extension of the strong Bermuda ridge in place right now.

On a typical summer pattern, I would agree and trust the strength of the ridge as well. However, so far this summer, we have been hard pressed to see the ridge build in very stout across the west-central Gulf Coast. Weak troughing to the north may keep that ridge from building in completely once again, which could result in 90L getting steered further northwestward rather than straight west into Mexico.

The setup so far this summer leads me to think the northwestern Gulf Coast from Louisiana to Mexico should be keeping a very close eye on Invest 90L.

In addition, the system may begin to organize by the end of the weekend. So it's important for people to keep checking in here, so there not caught off guard with development!

The environment by Sunday-Tuesday looks very favorable for organization & possible intensification. Low wind shear & very warm water temperatures.