Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Fri Aug 4 2017
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
2. A strong tropical wave located over the eastern Caribbean Sea is producing a large area of cloudiness and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to become more conducive for development by Sunday over the western Caribbean Sea and by early next week over the Bay of Campeche while the disturbance moves westward or west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph. This system could produce brief heavy rainfall and gusty winds over Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao tonight and Friday. For additional information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
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Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Fri Aug 4 2017
2. A large area of cloudiness and thunderstorms located over the central and eastern Caribbean Sea is associated with a tropical wave. This disturbance is expected to move west-northwestward at about 15 mph across the western Caribbean Sea and Bay of Campeche through the middle of next week, where environmental conditions appear conducive for development. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
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The only way this system could be a threat to the upper TX coast or LA if an unexpected trough digs across the central US and weakens the western extension of the strong Bermuda ridge in place right now.
The one thing to watch out for is that the Euro has been trending towards a not so strong western extension of the Bermuda ridge so TX still needs to keep its guard up, especially south TX.
The only way this system could be a threat to the upper TX coast or LA if an unexpected trough digs across the central US and weakens the western extension of the strong Bermuda ridge in place right now.
On a typical summer pattern, I would agree and trust the strength of the ridge as well. However, so far this summer, we have been hard pressed to see the ridge build in very stout across the west-central Gulf Coast. Weak troughing to the north may keep that ridge from building in completely once again, which could result in 90L getting steered further northwestward rather than straight west into Mexico.
The setup so far this summer leads me to think the northwestern Gulf Coast from Louisiana to Mexico should be keeping a very close eye on Invest 90L.
In addition, the system may begin to organize by the end of the weekend. So it's important for people to keep checking in here, so there not caught off guard with development!
The environment by Sunday-Tuesday looks very favorable for organization & possible intensification. Low wind shear & very warm water temperatures.
Last Edit: Aug 4, 2017 8:46:14 GMT -6 by SCOT PILIE'
The one thing to watch out for is that the Euro has been trending towards a not so strong western extension of the Bermuda ridge so TX still needs to keep its guard up, especially south TX.
