Post by Briella - Houma on Aug 4, 2017 1:58:02 GMT -6
Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Fri Aug 4 2017
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
2. A strong tropical wave located over the eastern Caribbean Sea is producing a large area of cloudiness and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to become more conducive for development by Sunday over the western Caribbean Sea and by early next week over the Bay of Campeche while the disturbance moves westward or west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph. This system could produce brief heavy rainfall and gusty winds over Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao tonight and Friday. For additional information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
Post by Briella - Houma on Aug 4, 2017 5:54:05 GMT -6
Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Fri Aug 4 2017
2. A large area of cloudiness and thunderstorms located over the central and eastern Caribbean Sea is associated with a tropical wave. This disturbance is expected to move west-northwestward at about 15 mph across the western Caribbean Sea and Bay of Campeche through the middle of next week, where environmental conditions appear conducive for development. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
The only way this system could be a threat to the upper TX coast or LA if an unexpected trough digs across the central US and weakens the western extension of the strong Bermuda ridge in place right now.
The one thing to watch out for is that the Euro has been trending towards a not so strong western extension of the Bermuda ridge so TX still needs to keep its guard up, especially south TX.
The only way this system could be a threat to the upper TX coast or LA if an unexpected trough digs across the central US and weakens the western extension of the strong Bermuda ridge in place right now.
On a typical summer pattern, I would agree and trust the strength of the ridge as well. However, so far this summer, we have been hard pressed to see the ridge build in very stout across the west-central Gulf Coast. Weak troughing to the north may keep that ridge from building in completely once again, which could result in 90L getting steered further northwestward rather than straight west into Mexico.
The setup so far this summer leads me to think the northwestern Gulf Coast from Louisiana to Mexico should be keeping a very close eye on Invest 90L.
In addition, the system may begin to organize by the end of the weekend. So it's important for people to keep checking in here, so there not caught off guard with development!
The environment by Sunday-Tuesday looks very favorable for organization & possible intensification. Low wind shear & very warm water temperatures.
Last Edit: Aug 4, 2017 8:46:14 GMT -6 by SCOT PILIE'
The one thing to watch out for is that the Euro has been trending towards a not so strong western extension of the Bermuda ridge so TX still needs to keep its guard up, especially south TX.
SKYSUMMIT: I'm hoping we're shoveling snow for Christmas
Nov 16, 2022 14:58:12 GMT -6
stormydds: Thanks for your reply... as usual
Nov 5, 2022 11:37:29 GMT -6
Zack Fradella: Yea, Lezak had a paper peer reviewed and published a year or so ago.
Nov 5, 2022 9:03:24 GMT -6
stormydds: Thanks for your response. I felt that is the case. that's too bad. Has there been any peer reviewed papers on the LRC hypothesis?
Nov 4, 2022 14:01:51 GMT -6
Zack Fradella: Not sure, the LRC is something that takes a lot of work to follow and keep up with. It's not as easy as looking at the parameters and making a forecast. This deters many from even giving it a chance. Also, there is some doubt from the weather world.
Nov 4, 2022 3:38:49 GMT -6
stormydds: Zack, a friend had a meeting in Lafayette which Rob Perillo spoke.He asked him why the LRC is not used to forecast hurricanes by NOAA.His answer was that Lezak won't share the info.I saw the podcast you and David made with Gary.He seemed open.What gives?
Nov 3, 2022 14:39:19 GMT -6
SKYSUMMIT: Man I really hope that rain moves quickly on Saturday. I'm so pumped for 6 hours of awesome college football!
Nov 3, 2022 7:15:01 GMT -6
PinkFreud - Nola FQ: Been unblocked. Dylan says that the station took major damage, so no idea when they'll even be able to stream again, or be on the air. Hopefully, they will at least let their employees deal with their own property issues!
Oct 2, 2022 18:17:35 GMT -6
gullywasher: Seriously, must we deal with Bruce Katz at noon, 4, 5 AND 9. ?
Sept 30, 2022 20:03:25 GMT -6
PinkFreud - Nola FQ: According to another met on twitter, the kitten was rescued by a producer who's adopting it. Of course that hasn't stopped the angry mob, with torches and pitchforks, who are insisting that it's a lie.
Sept 29, 2022 17:48:05 GMT -6
nolachic: Pink - he's probably blocking people he doesn't personally know to keep his cell charged and to get his head straight, and I'm sure he is beyond exhausted.
Sept 29, 2022 9:23:35 GMT -6
SKYSUMMIT: I sent him a message yesterday as well, but he hasn't seen it.
Sept 29, 2022 5:46:06 GMT -6
PinkFreud - Nola FQ: Oh hell, I meant for that to be a message!
Sept 28, 2022 19:38:19 GMT -6
PinkFreud - Nola FQ: Dylan is taking a beating on Twitter. I just tried to send him a message of support, since we've been following each other for years, and HE BLOCKED ME!!!!!! Somebody who can get to him needs to do so, pronto!!! I'm very worried about him.
Sept 28, 2022 19:37:27 GMT -6
HarahanTim - Now in Covington!: Hmmm, I will say. that somewhere back there, we have stored the "Tums" icon, for those that give a prediction based on their "gut"!
Sept 24, 2022 11:38:12 GMT -6
T-man: Gully, no one here cares about your tender friggin' heart, ya big snoflake!!! :horns: :horns: :horns: :tongue:
Sept 24, 2022 10:24:18 GMT -6
