Alex 2010 seems like a pretty darn good analog at this point in potential strength; only negative I see beyond the Yucatán is large size. Personally see South Texas as the most likely landfall point at this time given slight northward ticks in the models.
Invest 90L 5day percentage bumped up just a little 20/60%.
2. A tropical wave is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the central and eastern Caribbean Sea. This disturbance is expected to move west-northwestward at about 15 mph across the western Caribbean Sea and Bay of Campeche through the middle of next week, where environmental conditions appear conducive for development. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
If 90L does develop into anything it is expected to move into Mexico, possibly South Texas of course there is still time to watch so that could change, meanwhile the GFS from this evening took 99L into the FL panhandle and we obviously still have plenty of time and model watching to see what happens with it.
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