Well looks like the Euro develops this system as it nears the islands, unlike the GFS blowing it up in the MDR. Looking at ensembles from both the GFS and the Euro a weaker system is more likely to continue west in this case.
This run ends with a TS entering the Gulf through the Florida Straits. Also has another TS near the Lesser Antilles.
The UKMET also develops this, farther north and stronger than the Euro at d7. That makes all 3 of the big models as of the 00z cycle:
Well looks like the Euro develops this system as it nears the islands, unlike the GFS blowing it up in the MDR. Looking at ensembles from both the GFS and the Euro a weaker system is more likely to continue west in this case.
This run ends with a TS entering the Gulf through the Florida Straits. Also has another TS near the Lesser Antilles.
The UKMET also develops this, farther north and stronger than the Euro at d7. That makes all 3 of the big models as of the 00z cycle:
I think this one is the one to watch. Looks impressive and is an invest already. Kind of reminds me of Andrew because it is following a similar track and dates are really close.
Post by HarahanTim - Now in Covington! on Aug 13, 2017 7:40:46 GMT -6
Worth noting, I believe, this is one of the rare times, so far this season, the "New" GFS & the Euro, have been so much in the same ball park on one of these waves, at 8 days out.
Post by HarahanTim - Now in Covington! on Aug 13, 2017 7:59:06 GMT -6
We officially have an invest.
Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Sun Aug 13 2017
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Eight, located a few hundred miles north-northeast of the southeastern Bahamas.
1. A tropical wave that has emerged off the west coast of Africa is forecast to move westward over the next couple of days and merge with a broad area of low pressure located southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development of the system while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the open tropical eastern Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Eight are issued under WMO header WTNT33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT3. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Eight are issued under WMO header WTNT23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT3.
Post by HuRriCAnE miLeS on Aug 13, 2017 8:05:43 GMT -6
Now will just have to wait and see which models start forecasting a trough to drop down. Have pretty much been like clockwork every 7 days this summer. If the models are to be believed 10 days out with the timing of this potential system, this could be in between the trough moving in and high weakening. Looking closer at the euro it does show a system in the Midwest. Also of note euro shows high centered in mid Atlantic in 10 days while GFS shows it centered north of Nova Scotia. Huge difference there. So expect a lot of flip flopping the coming days.