Harvey Discussion Thread

Well looks like the Euro develops this system as it nears the islands, unlike the GFS blowing it up in the MDR. Looking at ensembles from both the GFS and the Euro a weaker system is more likely to continue west in this case.

This run ends with a TS entering the Gulf through the Florida Straits. Also has another TS near the Lesser Antilles.


The UKMET also develops this, farther north and stronger than the Euro at d7. That makes all 3 of the big models as of the 00z cycle:

I think this one is the one to watch. Looks impressive and is an invest already. Kind of reminds me of Andrew because it is following a similar track and dates are really close.

Ten days out...

We officially have an invest.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Aug 13 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Eight, located a few hundred miles north-northeast of
the southeastern Bahamas.

1. A tropical wave that has emerged off the west coast of Africa
is forecast to move westward over the next couple of days and merge
with a broad area of low pressure located southwest of the Cabo
Verde Islands. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive
for gradual development of the system while it moves westward to
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the open tropical eastern
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Eight are issued under WMO
header WTNT33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT3.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Eight are issued under
WMO header WTNT23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT3.

Now will just have to wait and see which models start forecasting a trough to drop down. Have pretty much been like clockwork every 7 days this summer. If the models are to be believed 10 days out with the timing of this potential system, this could be in between the trough moving in and high weakening. Looking closer at the euro it does show a system in the Midwest. Also of note euro shows high centered in mid Atlantic in 10 days while GFS shows it centered north of Nova Scotia. Huge difference there. So expect a lot of flip flopping the coming days.

Say it ain't so, Scott! I am going on a cruise 8/24 out of NOLA. This is my FIRST cruise ever.... :{