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Siker
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Harvey Discussion Thread Aug 13, 2017 10:21:42 GMT -6 via mobile SKYSUMMIT likes this

Post by Siker on Aug 13, 2017 10:21:42 GMT -6

12z UKMET text product picked it up:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 15.1N 45.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 16.08.2017 72 15.5N 47.1W 1011 30
0000UTC 17.08.2017 84 15.4N 50.3W 1011 28
1200UTC 17.08.2017 96 15.7N 54.2W 1009 32
0000UTC 18.08.2017 108 15.4N 58.1W 1007 31
1200UTC 18.08.2017 120 15.1N 62.1W 1003 37
0000UTC 19.08.2017 132 15.6N 66.4W 1000 37
1200UTC 19.08.2017 144 15.9N 70.8W 1000 40

SKYSUMMIT President \| Director of Operations Administrator Posts - 60,976 Likes - 10,780 Social: - Facebook, Twitter	Harvey Discussion Thread Aug 13, 2017 10:34:38 GMT -6 SCOT PILIE' likes this Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by SKYSUMMIT on Aug 13, 2017 10:34:38 GMT -6 Looks like we have 100% model agreement on at least future development of 91L.

SKYSUMMIT President \| Director of Operations Administrator Posts - 60,976 Likes - 10,780 Social: - Facebook, Twitter	Harvey Discussion Thread Aug 13, 2017 10:47:38 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by SKYSUMMIT on Aug 13, 2017 10:47:38 GMT -6 12z GFS goes out to sea while the 12z Canadian is in the Bahamas by day 10.

hurricaner
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Harvey Discussion Thread Aug 13, 2017 10:52:29 GMT -6 Dutar76 likes this

Post by hurricaner on Aug 13, 2017 10:52:29 GMT -6

Aug 13, 2017 10:47:38 GMT -6 SKYSUMMIT said:

12z GFS goes out to sea while the 12z Canadian is in the Bahamas by day 10.

The GFS has a very weak trough pick the system. If the trough is weaker or 91L is further south then I don't think 91L goes up the east coast. Also as is typical of the GFS it has 91L moving NW into a 500mb high pressure when it would normally head more westerly. Will be interesting to see what the EURO and the 12Z GFS ensembles have to say.

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SKYSUMMIT President \| Director of Operations Administrator Posts - 60,976 Likes - 10,780 Social: - Facebook, Twitter	Harvey Discussion Thread Aug 13, 2017 11:06:03 GMT -6 Dutar76 likes this Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by SKYSUMMIT on Aug 13, 2017 11:06:03 GMT -6 Sure does...moves it right toward ridging. It does really slow down also before moving north. Looks like a run that points to future runs trending west.

SKYSUMMIT
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Harvey Discussion Thread Aug 13, 2017 11:08:06 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Aug 13, 2017 11:08:06 GMT -6

Aug 13, 2017 10:21:42 GMT -6 Siker said:

12z UKMET text product picked it up:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 15.1N 45.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 16.08.2017 72 15.5N 47.1W 1011 30
0000UTC 17.08.2017 84 15.4N 50.3W 1011 28
1200UTC 17.08.2017 96 15.7N 54.2W 1009 32
0000UTC 18.08.2017 108 15.4N 58.1W 1007 31
1200UTC 18.08.2017 120 15.1N 62.1W 1003 37
0000UTC 19.08.2017 132 15.6N 66.4W 1000 37
1200UTC 19.08.2017 144 15.9N 70.8W 1000 40

This goes into the Caribbean, although weaker than other models but it looks like tries to organize once there.

SKYSUMMIT President \| Director of Operations Administrator Posts - 60,976 Likes - 10,780 Social: - Facebook, Twitter	Harvey Discussion Thread Aug 13, 2017 11:41:26 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by SKYSUMMIT on Aug 13, 2017 11:41:26 GMT -6 12z GFS ensembles = all but about 3 go out to sea.

Siker Category 3 Posts - 759 Likes - 329 Social: - Twitter	Harvey Discussion Thread Aug 13, 2017 12:19:43 GMT -6 via mobile SCOT PILIE' likes this Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by Siker on Aug 13, 2017 12:19:43 GMT -6 12z Euro is way different than past runs; it's trying to develop both areas of vorticity rather than merge them together. Leading one looks to be Caribbean bound.

hurricaner
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Harvey Discussion Thread Aug 13, 2017 12:20:44 GMT -6

Post by hurricaner on Aug 13, 2017 12:20:44 GMT -6

91L's percentages are up just a little 10/30%.

An area of disturbed weather located to the southeast of the Cabo

Verde Islands is associated with a tropical wave. The wave is

forecast to merge with a broad area of low pressure located

southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands in a day or two. Environmental

conditions are expected to become more conducive for development of

this system later this week while it moves westward at about

15 mph over the tropical Atlantic.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 10 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

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Siker
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Harvey Discussion Thread Aug 13, 2017 12:26:09 GMT -6 SCOT PILIE' likes this

Post by Siker on Aug 13, 2017 12:26:09 GMT -6

Yeah this is way different. Here is the 12z Euro with a Caribbean cruiser from the leading wave which the NHC currently says will merge with the second wave (what the Euro and other models showed developing last run, seen here further northeast).

SKYSUMMIT President \| Director of Operations Administrator Posts - 60,976 Likes - 10,780 Social: - Facebook, Twitter	Harvey Discussion Thread Aug 13, 2017 12:52:22 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by SKYSUMMIT on Aug 13, 2017 12:52:22 GMT -6 After crossing Hispaniola, the 12z EURO looks to be Gulf bound:

SKYSUMMIT President \| Director of Operations Administrator Posts - 60,976 Likes - 10,780 Social: - Facebook, Twitter	Harvey Discussion Thread Aug 13, 2017 12:57:46 GMT -6 DYLAN FEDERICO and SCOT PILIE' like this Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by SKYSUMMIT on Aug 13, 2017 12:57:46 GMT -6 ....and has a very ominous path ahead:

cobourg Category 1 Posts - 120 Likes - 5	Harvey Discussion Thread Aug 13, 2017 12:58:05 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by cobourg on Aug 13, 2017 12:58:05 GMT -6 Hey Sky, we are leaving for the Keys tomorrow Aug 14 and getting out on the Saturday the 19th. Are we going to be good down there?

SKYSUMMIT
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Harvey Discussion Thread Aug 13, 2017 13:00:35 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Aug 13, 2017 13:00:35 GMT -6

Aug 13, 2017 12:58:05 GMT -6 cobourg said:

Hey Sky, we are leaving for the Keys tomorrow Aug 14 and getting out on the Saturday the 19th. Are we going to be good down there?

Yes. You'll be getting out a few days ahead of any threat if 91L were to head that way.

weatherboyy Category 5 Posts - 1,667 Likes - 418 Social: - YouTube	Harvey Discussion Thread Aug 13, 2017 13:55:43 GMT -6 via mobile SKYSUMMIT likes this Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by weatherboyy on Aug 13, 2017 13:55:43 GMT -6 /photo/1
	weather geeks i don't really talk much I post image

Harvey Discussion Thread

Post by Siker on Aug 13, 2017 10:21:42 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Aug 13, 2017 10:34:38 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Aug 13, 2017 10:47:38 GMT -6

Post by hurricaner on Aug 13, 2017 10:52:29 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Aug 13, 2017 11:06:03 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Aug 13, 2017 11:08:06 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Aug 13, 2017 11:41:26 GMT -6

Post by Siker on Aug 13, 2017 12:19:43 GMT -6

Post by hurricaner on Aug 13, 2017 12:20:44 GMT -6

Post by Siker on Aug 13, 2017 12:26:09 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Aug 13, 2017 12:52:22 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Aug 13, 2017 12:57:46 GMT -6

Post by cobourg on Aug 13, 2017 12:58:05 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Aug 13, 2017 13:00:35 GMT -6

Post by weatherboyy on Aug 13, 2017 13:55:43 GMT -6

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