12z GFS goes out to sea while the 12z Canadian is in the Bahamas by day 10.
The GFS has a very weak trough pick the system. If the trough is weaker or 91L is further south then I don't think 91L goes up the east coast. Also as is typical of the GFS it has 91L moving NW into a 500mb high pressure when it would normally head more westerly. Will be interesting to see what the EURO and the 12Z GFS ensembles have to say.
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Sure does...moves it right toward ridging. It does really slow down also before moving north. Looks like a run that points to future runs trending west.
12z Euro is way different than past runs; it's trying to develop both areas of vorticity rather than merge them together. Leading one looks to be Caribbean bound.
Yeah this is way different. Here is the 12z Euro with a Caribbean cruiser from the leading wave which the NHC currently says will merge with the second wave (what the Euro and other models showed developing last run, seen here further northeast).
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