Harvey Discussion Thread

91L is a very large complex so latter development is more likely than over the next couple of days...maybe even toward next weekend. This would likely mean a more west track in the long run as the UKMET and EURO have been indicating.

Hour 198, weak steering currents east of the Bahamas. (btw, this run is the weakest intensity run the GFS has had for 91L thus far)

00z UKMET is also along this same general path, aiming toward the Bahamas.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Mon Aug 14 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Gert, located several hundred miles west-southwest of Bermuda.

A large and complex area of disturbed weather to the south and
southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is associated with a broad
trough of low pressure and a tropical wave. These systems are
forecast to merge during the next day or two, and environmental
conditions are then expected to be conducive for development of
this disturbance later this week while it moves westward at about
15 mph over the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Ruh Roh

End of the run.  Looks like maybe a west turn at the end, but this is not pretty.  An intensifying storm getting in the Gulf.  Let's hope this changes a lot