Harvey Discussion Thread

I would think any northern component to a track would be many days away with this steering layer in place.

Moving south of west right here:
(and as a major hurricane)

Is this further west or east than previous runs?

This one has got my attention. As I posted earlier, it is still reminding me a bit of Andrew. And very close to the date as well.

skysum check you email.

Up to 40% chance now (Orange)


Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun Aug 13 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
upgraded Tropical Storm Gert, located several hundred miles west-
southwest of Bermuda.

1. A large and complex area of disturbed weather to the south and
southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is associated with a broad
trough of low pressure and a tropical wave. These systems are
forecast to merge over the next day or two, and environmental
conditions are then expected to be conducive for development of
this disturbance later this week while it moves westward at about
15 mph over the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Blake

For what ever reason, either the 00z tropical models are late or they're not being run tonight.