Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Mon Aug 14 2017
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Gert, located several hundred miles west-southwest of Bermuda.
1. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a broad trough of low pressure southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands has increased since last night. Environmental conditions are expected to be generally conducive for development of this disturbance for the next several days while it moves westward at about 15 mph over the tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
Yea, they should have just let the old GFS continue through the season. As horrible as it was, it seems as though it was better than the updated version.
The overnight 00z UKMET showing 91L as the west runner approaching Belize (looks like it develops it in 48 to 60 hours in the central Atlantic). Then has a stronger system behind it in the Atlantic.
Really nothing much still on the GFS through 5 days. It's hard to believe what it says though because this new version is just plain crap. It didn't pick up on Gert until after it developed.
Post by thibodauxwx on Aug 14, 2017 10:39:28 GMT -6
the 12 Z GFS is running, it's out to 222 hours, has nothing on 91L at all. The euro has been pretty good this year so far, It's a little frightening that it's bringing a developing storm into the gulf on August 24th. lets see if it nails this one,
Last Edit: Aug 14, 2017 10:42:21 GMT -6 by thibodauxwx
