Ten Discussion Thread

hurricaner
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Ten Discussion Thread Aug 14, 2017 17:28:28 GMT -6

Post by hurricaner on Aug 14, 2017 17:28:28 GMT -6

We have a new yellow for a wave still over Africa 0/20%.

A tropical wave over western Africa is forecast to emerge into the

far eastern Atlantic Ocean in about two days. Conditions appear

conducive for some development after that time while the wave moves

westward at about 15 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Last Edit: Aug 27, 2017 14:49:10 GMT -6 by SKYSUMMIT

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SKYSUMMIT Administrator President \| Director of Operations Posts: 64,796 Location: Hammond, LA Staff Member	Ten Discussion Thread Aug 15, 2017 8:24:59 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by SKYSUMMIT on Aug 15, 2017 8:24:59 GMT -6 I believe this is the one they're labeling 92L AL, 92, 2017081512, , BEST, 0, 135N, 294W
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Ten Discussion Thread Aug 15, 2017 8:39:19 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Aug 15, 2017 8:39:19 GMT -6

This is only the Canadian, but here's what it's doing....Gert out to sea, 91L out to sea, and then 92L following suit. 91L becomes Harvey and 92L becomes Irma. Again, this is only last night's run of the Canadian. It's really the only model that's been fairly consistent. It's sad when we have to look at the Canadian for any sense. Anyway...sure to change.

Last Edit: Aug 15, 2017 8:44:16 GMT -6 by SKYSUMMIT

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NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08
CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23

SKYSUMMIT Administrator President \| Director of Operations Posts: 64,796 Location: Hammond, LA Staff Member	Ten Discussion Thread Aug 15, 2017 8:49:21 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by SKYSUMMIT on Aug 15, 2017 8:49:21 GMT -6
	REALTOR - Team Geaux Realty, LLC (Let me be your Realtor!) Search homes on my website --> www.scottguidry.com/ NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08 CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23

SKYSUMMIT Administrator President \| Director of Operations Posts: 64,796 Location: Hammond, LA Staff Member	Ten Discussion Thread Aug 15, 2017 9:38:55 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by SKYSUMMIT on Aug 15, 2017 9:38:55 GMT -6
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SKYSUMMIT Administrator President \| Director of Operations Posts: 64,796 Location: Hammond, LA Staff Member	Ten Discussion Thread Aug 15, 2017 10:26:41 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by SKYSUMMIT on Aug 15, 2017 10:26:41 GMT -6 The GFS is coming out a little aggressive on 92L, showing what should be Irma right here moving WNW:
	Last Edit: Aug 15, 2017 10:27:58 GMT -6 by SKYSUMMIT REALTOR - Team Geaux Realty, LLC (Let me be your Realtor!) Search homes on my website --> www.scottguidry.com/ NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08 CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23

Siker
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Ten Discussion Thread Aug 15, 2017 10:42:33 GMT -6 via mobile

Post by Siker on Aug 15, 2017 10:42:33 GMT -6

Aug 15, 2017 10:26:41 GMT -6 SKYSUMMIT said:

The GFS is coming out a little aggressive on 92L, showing what should be Irma right here moving WNW:

That would be the wave over Africa. 92L is the lump of vorticity to its west in that image.

SKYSUMMIT Administrator President \| Director of Operations Posts: 64,796 Location: Hammond, LA Staff Member	Ten Discussion Thread Aug 15, 2017 11:01:01 GMT -6 SCOT PILIE' likes this Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by SKYSUMMIT on Aug 15, 2017 11:01:01 GMT -6 Well I just don't believe squat anymore on these models. None of them can get handle on anything at all lol.
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cajungal
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Ten Discussion Thread Aug 15, 2017 11:16:23 GMT -6 via mobile

Post by cajungal on Aug 15, 2017 11:16:23 GMT -6

I don't know how to post images. But saw on another site that the Canadian has it hitting south Florida. And of all days Aug 24th like Andrew. This is a long way away and likely won't happen. But I know that south Floridians will still get nervous looking at that model run.

60 miles southwest of New Orleans) Thibodaux, La

Briella - Houma Category 5 Posts: 8,421	Ten Discussion Thread Aug 15, 2017 11:29:08 GMT -6 SCOT PILIE' likes this Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by Briella - Houma on Aug 15, 2017 11:29:08 GMT -6 Basically a depression.. well.. on its way.
	Last Edit: Aug 15, 2017 11:38:52 GMT -6 by Briella - Houma Briella Helicity - The Weather Superstore www.helicity.co

Briella - Houma
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Ten Discussion Thread Aug 15, 2017 11:55:18 GMT -6

Post by Briella - Houma on Aug 15, 2017 11:55:18 GMT -6

2. Showers and thunderstorms have become a little better organized in
association with a low pressure area located a few hundred miles
west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for additional development of this system while it
moves westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph. Upper-level
winds are likely to become less favorable for development by this
weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Briella
Helicity - The Weather Superstore www.helicity.co

SKYSUMMIT
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Ten Discussion Thread Aug 15, 2017 13:49:33 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Aug 15, 2017 13:49:33 GMT -6

Aug 15, 2017 11:16:23 GMT -6 cajungal said:

REALTOR - Team Geaux Realty, LLC (Let me be your Realtor!)
Search homes on my website --> www.scottguidry.com/
NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08
CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23

hurricaner
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Ten Discussion Thread Aug 16, 2017 9:03:08 GMT -6 SCOT PILIE' likes this

Post by hurricaner on Aug 16, 2017 9:03:08 GMT -6

Looking at the 06Z GFS ensembles they appear to be dropping the re-curve up the east coast and appear to be heading for a strike in Florida then in the GOM. The intensity models appear to show it strengthening before the islands then weakening north of the Antilles and then starting to re-strengthen in the Bahamas.

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SKYSUMMIT Administrator President \| Director of Operations Posts: 64,796 Location: Hammond, LA Staff Member	Ten Discussion Thread Aug 16, 2017 9:43:35 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by SKYSUMMIT on Aug 16, 2017 9:43:35 GMT -6 Here are the GFS ensembles hurricaner was referring to, along with the 12z tropical plots:
	REALTOR - Team Geaux Realty, LLC (Let me be your Realtor!) Search homes on my website --> www.scottguidry.com/ NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08 CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23

SKYSUMMIT
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Ten Discussion Thread Aug 16, 2017 9:47:17 GMT -6 SCOT PILIE' likes this

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Aug 16, 2017 9:47:17 GMT -6

Around that same time frame near the end of those 12z runs above, ridging is forecast by the GFS to be in place. That would force anything to bend back west, and into the Gulf....IF all this is correct, AND 92L actually does something.

REALTOR - Team Geaux Realty, LLC (Let me be your Realtor!)
Search homes on my website --> www.scottguidry.com/
NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08
CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23

stormydds: Thanks for your response. I felt that is the case. that's too bad. Has there been any peer reviewed papers on the LRC hypothesis? Nov 4, 2022 14:01:51 GMT -6

Zack Fradella: Not sure, the LRC is something that takes a lot of work to follow and keep up with. It's not as easy as looking at the parameters and making a forecast. This deters many from even giving it a chance. Also, there is some doubt from the weather world. Nov 4, 2022 3:38:49 GMT -6

stormydds: Zack, a friend had a meeting in Lafayette which Rob Perillo spoke.He asked him why the LRC is not used to forecast hurricanes by NOAA.His answer was that Lezak won't share the info.I saw the podcast you and David made with Gary.He seemed open.What gives? Nov 3, 2022 14:39:19 GMT -6

Ten Discussion Thread

Post by hurricaner on Aug 14, 2017 17:28:28 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Aug 15, 2017 8:24:59 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Aug 15, 2017 8:39:19 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Aug 15, 2017 8:49:21 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Aug 15, 2017 9:38:55 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Aug 15, 2017 10:26:41 GMT -6

Post by Siker on Aug 15, 2017 10:42:33 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Aug 15, 2017 11:01:01 GMT -6

Post by cajungal on Aug 15, 2017 11:16:23 GMT -6

Post by Briella - Houma on Aug 15, 2017 11:29:08 GMT -6

Post by Briella - Houma on Aug 15, 2017 11:55:18 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Aug 15, 2017 13:49:33 GMT -6

Post by hurricaner on Aug 16, 2017 9:03:08 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Aug 16, 2017 9:43:35 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Aug 16, 2017 9:47:17 GMT -6

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