This is only the Canadian, but here's what it's doing....Gert out to sea, 91L out to sea, and then 92L following suit. 91L becomes Harvey and 92L becomes Irma. Again, this is only last night's run of the Canadian. It's really the only model that's been fairly consistent. It's sad when we have to look at the Canadian for any sense. Anyway...sure to change.
Last Edit: Aug 15, 2017 8:44:16 GMT -6 by SKYSUMMIT
I don't know how to post images. But saw on another site that the Canadian has it hitting south Florida. And of all days Aug 24th like Andrew. This is a long way away and likely won't happen. But I know that south Floridians will still get nervous looking at that model run.
2. Showers and thunderstorms have become a little better organized in association with a low pressure area located a few hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development of this system while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph. Upper-level winds are likely to become less favorable for development by this weekend. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
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I don't know how to post images. But saw on another site that the Canadian has it hitting south Florida. And of all days Aug 24th like Andrew. This is a long way away and likely won't happen. But I know that south Floridians will still get nervous looking at that model run.
Looking at the 06Z GFS ensembles they appear to be dropping the re-curve up the east coast and appear to be heading for a strike in Florida then in the GOM. The intensity models appear to show it strengthening before the islands then weakening north of the Antilles and then starting to re-strengthen in the Bahamas.
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SKYSUMMIT President | Director of OperationsAdministrator
Around that same time frame near the end of those 12z runs above, ridging is forecast by the GFS to be in place. That would force anything to bend back west, and into the Gulf....IF all this is correct, AND 92L actually does something.